Managing vulnerability to drought and enhancing livelihood resilience in sub-Saharan Africa: Technological, institutional and policy options

Managing vulnerability to drought and enhancing livelihood resilience
in sub-Saharan Africa: Technological, institutional and policy options
Bekele Shiferaw a,n, Kindie Tesfaye b
, Menale Kassie c , Tsedeke Abate c ,
B.M. Prasanna c , Abebe Menkir d
a Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP), Nairobi, Kenya
b International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
c International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Nairobi, Kenya
d International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Ibadan, Nigeria
a r t i c l e i n f o
Article history:
Received 20 December 2013
Accepted 2 April 2014
Available online 21 May 2014
Keywords:
Climate variability
Drought
Drought risk management
Technology and policy options
Sub-Saharan Africa
a b s t r a c t
Agriculture and the economies of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are highly sensitive to climatic variability.
Drought, in particular, represents one of the most important natural factors contributing to malnutrition
and famine in many parts of the region. The overall impact of drought on a given country/region and its
ability to recover from the resulting social, economic and environmental impacts depends on several
factors. The economic, social and environmental impacts of drought are huge in SSA and the national
costs and losses incurred threaten to undermine the wider economic and development gains made in
the last few decades in the region. There is an urgent need to reduce the vulnerability of countries to
climate variability and to the threats posed by climate change. This paper attempts to highlight the
challenges of drought in SSA and reviews the current drought risk management strategies, especially the
promising technological and policy options for managing drought risks to protect livelihoods and reduce
vulnerability. The review suggests the possibilities of several ex ante and ex post drought management
strategies in SSA although their effectiveness depends on agro-climatic and socio-economic conditions.
Existing technological, policy and institutional risk management measures need to be strengthened and
integrated to manage drought ex ante and to minimize the ex post negative effects for vulnerable
households and regions. A proactive approach that combines promising technological, institutional and
policy solutions to manage the risks within vulnerable communities implemented by institutions
operating at different levels (community, sub-national, and national) is considered to be the way forward
for managing drought and climate variability.
& 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND
license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).
1. Introduction
Agriculture is the dominant form of land use globally involving
major economic, social, and cultural activities and providing a
wide range of ecosystem services. Because of its nature, however,
agriculture remains highly sensitive to climate variations. The vast
majority of smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are
dependent on rainfed agriculture for their livelihoods, and they
are often afflicted by the vagaries of weather and climate
(Gautam, 2006). Among the climatic factors, rainfall variability
has a large impact on the livelihoods of the poor as well as the
economies of most of the African countries (Gautam, 2006;
Hellmuth et al., 2007). For millions of poor people in SSA,
variability and unpredictability of climate is a major challenge
and poses a risk that can critically restrict options and limit their
development (Hellmuth et al., 2009).
Droughts and floods alone account for 80% of the loss of life and
70% of the economic losses in SSA (Bhavnani et al., 2008). Frequent
drought conditions have reduced the GDP growth of many African
countries (Jury, 2000; World Bank, 2005a; Brown et al., 2011) and
threatened their development gains (Hellmuth et al., 2007).
Drought has both direct and indirect impacts. Drought directly
affects production, lives, health, livelihoods, assets and infrastruc-
ture that contribute to food insecurity and poverty. However, the
indirect effects of drought on environmental degradation and
reduced household welfare through its impact on crop and live-
stock prices could be larger than its direct effects (Zimmerman and
Carter, 2003; Holden and Shiferaw, 2004). In the past five decades,
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
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Weather and Climate Extremes
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2212-0947/& 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).
n Corresponding author.
E-mail address: [e-mail] (B. Shiferaw).
Weather and Climate Extremes 3 (2014) 67–79

drought has become a major problem of Africa and it has caused
depletion of assets, environmental degradation, impoverishment,
unemployment and forced migrations (Hellmuth et al., 2007;
Bhavnani et al., 2008; Scheffran et al., 2012).
Although drought accounts for only 8% of natural disasters
globally, it poses the greatest natural hazard in Africa accounting
for 25% of all natural disasters on the continent occurring
between 1960 and 2006 (Gautam, 2006). Over the four decades
since the 1960s, Africa stands first in drought frequency with a
total of 382 reported drought events that affected 326 million
people (Gautam, 2006). Regions of highly variable rainfall in
Africa include the Sahel, the Greater Horn and Southern Africa.
These regions experience frequent and sometimes prolonged
droughts that lead to famine associated with drought in combina-
tion with inadequate socioeconomic entitlements, exacerbating
vulnerabilities of households and national economies (Hansen et
al., 2004). Over the last five decades, the frequency of droughts
has increased steadily in East Africa but declined in West Africa
(Gautam, 2006).
Eastern and southern Africa regions are characterized mainly
by semi-arid and sub-humid climates with a pronounced dry
season in part of the year. Therefore, in contrast to West Africa,
the variability of rainfall in these regions is concentrated on
relatively short time scales in a year and it has a direct connection
with global processes such as El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) (Nicholson, 2001). 1 ENSO events have a strong influence
on the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), regional monsoon
wind circulation, and patterns of rainfall anomalies over many
parts of SSA (Dilley and Heyman, 1995; Jury, 2000; Singh, 2006).
The impacts, however, vary significantly from season to season
and across countries depending on geographic conditions. For
example, El Niño episodes are often associated with the above
normal rainfall conditions over the equatorial parts of eastern
Africa during October to December and below-normal rainfall over
much of the Horn of Africa during the June to September rainfall
season. On the other hand, La Niña events often give rise to below-
normal rainfall over much of the Greater Horn of Africa during
October to December and March to May and above-normal rainfall
during the June to September rainfall season (Janowiak, 1988;
Singh, 2006).
Drought has a covariate or widespread nature which can cross
national borders making informal risk management arrangements
ineffective (Gautam, 2006; Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010). This has
led to an increase in the number of people affected, rising
economic costs and increasing humanitarian assistance for the
rising numbers of affected populations (Gautam, 2006). The
effects of natural climatic variability and drought conditions are
further accentuated by the looming threat of climate change that
is projected to increase extreme events and drought frequencies
in many parts of Africa. Alternative agricultural investment
options and policy and institutional innovations with varying
profitability and success exist for managing climatic risks
(Rosenzweig and Binswanger, 1993; Shiferaw and Okello, 2011).
The main purpose of this paper is to highlight the state of
vulnerability to drought and its impacts in SSA and present the
promising technological, institutional and policy options for
drought risk management to reduce vulnerabilities and livelihood
impacts in the region.
2. Drought vulnerability and impacts
2.1. Vulnerability
Understanding people's vulnerability to drought is complex
because this depends on both biophysical and socioeconomic
drivers of drought impact that determine the capacity to cope
with drought (Naumann et al., 2013). Vulnerability is defined in
many ways and it has different meanings when used in different
disciplines and contexts (e.g., Chambers, 1989; Smit et al., 1999;
Brooks et al., 2005; Adger, 2006; Füssel, 2007). In this paper,
drought vulnerability is used to highlight the socioeconomic and
biophysical characteristics of the region that makes it susceptible
to the adverse effects of drought.
The vulnerability of a society to climate disasters such as
drought depends on several factors such as population, technology,
policy, social behavior, land use patterns, water use, economic
development, and diversity of economic base and cultural composi-
tion (Wilhite and Svoboda, 2000; Naumann et al., 2013). As Amartya
Sen argued, prevalence of drought and decline in food availability
should not necessarily lead to famines and loss of livelihoods.
Whether food availability decline would lead to disaster will depend
on capability failure which in turn depends on market access and
people's social, economic and political entitlements (Sen, 1999). In
SSA, rainfed agriculture provides about 90% of the region's food and
feed (Rosegrant et al., 2002) and it is the principal source of
livelihood for more than 70% of the population (Hellmuth et al.,
2007). Because of heavy dependence on rainfed agriculture, about
60% of Sub-Saharan Africa is vulnerable to frequent and severe
droughts (Esikuri, 2005).
Although expanding irrigation is an important strategy to
reduce the vulnerability of agriculture to climate risks, water
resources are inextricably linked with climate and the prospect
of global climate change has serious implications for water
resources and regional development (Riebsame et al., 1995).
Although Africa has a huge water resource, there is large variation
in its spatial and temporal distribution. Moreover, many African
countries are expected to face water stress, scarcity and vulner-
ability by 2025 (Fig. 1) indicating that water resources are highly
dependent on, and influenced by, climate.
Furthermore, unsustainable use of land and other resources
increase the vulnerability of people in SSA. Millions of smallholder
farmers and pastoralists earn a living in degraded areas which
make them highly vulnerable to droughts and other climate
hazards. Land degradation often stems from the nexus between
poverty and lack of capacity to invest in more sustainable
agricultural practices and change extractive land-use systems
(Holden et al., 1998; Shiferaw and Okello, 2011). Poverty makes
people vulnerable and limits their choices. Therefore, apart from
climate, human activity is one of the major factors responsible for
environmental degradation in SSA that slowly depletes productive
natural assets and increases vulnerability to drought and climatic
variability.
Another widely accepted reason for the aggravation of drought
vulnerability and impacts in Africa is the continuous increase in
population growth which has huge implications when comple-
mented with poverty and inadequate policies (Tadesse, 1998).
High population growth increases pressure on limited and fragile
land resources and leads to unsustainable resource exploitation,
resulting in environmental damage. If crops fail, subsistence
farmers have few or no alternative means to provide food for
their families. When they run out of alternatives, the poor are
forced to exploit land resources, including fragile ones for survival,
and inevitably they become both the victims and willing agents of
environmental degradation and desertification. In general, high
level of chronic poverty contributes to low adaptive capacity to
1 El Niño and La Niña refer to the warming and cooling of sea-surface
temperatures (SST) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, respectively which influence
atmospheric circulation and consequently rainfall and temperature in specific areas
around the world. Since the changes in the Pacific Ocean (represented by “El Niño/
La Niña”) and the changes in the atmosphere (represented by “Southern Oscilla-
tion”) cannot be separated, the term ENSO is often used to describe the ocean-
atmosphere changes (Singh, 2006).
B. Shiferaw et al. / Weather and Climate Extremes 3 (2014) 67–7968

drought and threatens the lives and livelihoods of the poor more
than other social groups (Hellmuth et al., 2007).
An increase in vulnerability to drought hazard may result
from an increased frequency and severity of drought, increased
societal vulnerability, or a combination of the two. Using a drought
vulnerability indicator (DVI) computed at country level, Naumann
et al. (2013) classified Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali and
Chad as countries with higher relative vulnerability to drought.
The ability to cope with drought also varies from country to
country and from one region, community or population group to
another.
2.2. Drought vulnerability and climate change
Another factor that is increasing drought vulnerability and
impact in Africa is climate change. Climate change threatens both
frequent and severe extreme events in Africa (Bang and Sitango,
2003; IPCC, 2007) and in many parts of the world. For example,
analysis of long-term records of drought events compiled by
NMSA (1987) over several centuries in Ethiopia indicates short-
ening of the return periods of droughts at exponential rate (Fig. 2).
The increased frequency of drought observed in eastern Africa
over the last 20 years is likely to continue as long as global
temperatures continue to rise (Williams and Funk, 2011). This
poses increased risk to more than 18 million people in the Greater
Horn of Africa alone who frequently face potential food shortages.
Moreover, climate change will greatly exacerbate weather risk-
poverty relations as poverty limits the capacity of people to
manage weather risks while the same risks contribute to locking
people under poverty (Hellmuth et al., 2009).
In recent years, individual countries are paying increasing
attention to drought-related issues due to ever increasing exploi-
tation of water resources and associated water scarcity coupled
with the growing concern that future climate change will exacer-
bate the frequency, severity, and duration of drought events and
associated impacts (Wilhite and Pulwarty, 2005). This has brought
drought risk management to the forefront in policy discussions
although the mix of options available and their effectiveness
remains poorly understood.
Fig. 1. Per capita water availability in 1990 and 2025 in Africa.
Source: Adapted from UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2002.
B. Shiferaw et al. / Weather and Climate Extremes 3 (2014) 67–79 69

2.3. Impacts of drought
The impacts of drought can be both ex post and ex ante. Ex post
impacts refer to the losses that follow a climate shock while
ex ante impacts refer to the opportunity costs associated with
conservative strategies that risk-averse decision makers employ in
advance to protect themselves against the possibility of climate
shocks (Hansen et al. 2004). The major conservative ex-ante
responses of farmers to climate risks documented by Hansen
et al. (2004) include use of less risky but less profitable crops or
cultivars, avoidance of potentially risky improved production
technologies, under-use of fertilizers, and shifting household labor
away from farming to non-productive but more liquid assets as
precautionary savings. Because of high relative risk aversion,
poorer households are often impacted more by ex-ante responses
to climate variability than wealthier ones even in good years
(Zimmerman and Carter, 2003).
The economic and environmental impacts of drought may be
direct or indirect, and can be expressed in different forms (Hansen
et al. 2004; Hellmuth et al., 2007; Bhavnani et al., 2008). These may
include productivity loss in crops, rangelands and forests; increased
fire hazards; reduced water levels; increased livestock and wildlife
mortality rates; and damage to wildlife and fish habitats (loss of
biodiversity). These effects may finally manifest themselves in the
form of reduced income for farmers and agribusiness; increased food
prices; unemployment; reduced tax revenues; increased conflict,
outmigration and displacement; malnutrition and famine; disease
epidemics and greater insect infestations; and spread of plant
diseases and increased wind erosion.
Between 1971 and 2001 alone, drought affected more people than
any other natural disaster in Africa (UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2005).
Many parts of Sub-Saharan Africa face risk of 10–40% probability of
failed seasons during the major cropping calendar (Fig. 3). The
African continent suffered from the worst famines in the mid-
1980s which affected 20 countries critically resulting in the migration
of 10 million people in search of food and water and endangered the
lives of 35 million people (Tadesse, 1998). In east Africa and the Sahel,
the 1984 long-term drought resulted in widespread starvation and
famine (Tadesse, 1998). Among sub-regions, East Africa accounted for
over 70% of the total affected people from 1964 to 2006; and within
East Africa, Ethiopia suffered the most (39% of all affected). Zim-
babwe, Malawi, Mozambique, and Kenya all accounted for 9–12% of
the total affected people (Gautam, 2006). In recent years, more than
10 million people across the Horn of Africa went hungry due to death
of livestock as a result of extended drought in 2011 (AMCEN, 2011).
Severe livelihood and food security stresses due to climate
shocks may force households to liquidate productive assets such as
livestock or land in exchange for food, default on loans, withdraw
children from school, and/or engage in exploitive environmental
management practices to survive (Hansen et al. 2004). One of the
characteristics of drought impact is that households that suffered a
previous shock emerge more vulnerable to the next shock until
lost assets can be restored. A study in Ethiopia showed that a
substantial portion of the immediate impact of the drought of the
early 1980s on farmer income and consumption persisted for more
than a decade (Dercon, 2004). At the macro-level, climate varia-
bility affects food security through its broader influence on
investment, adoption of agricultural technology, aggregate food
production, market prices and economic development which in
turn determine the ability of individuals, communities and nations
to produce and purchase food (Zimmerman and Carter, 2003;
Hansen et al. 2004).
3. Drought risk management
Risk management in general refers to strategies to avoid adverse
outcomes while pursuing positive goals (Hansen et al., 2004).
Drought risk management (DRM) is part of the general climate risk
manage (CRM) approach which refers to climate-sensitive decision
making (Hellmuth et al., 2007). Using as much information as they
can get, farmers make decisions that aim to minimize climate risks
and exploit climate opportunities. Climate risk management is being
practiced at various levels and with varying effectiveness across SSA
(Hellmuth et al., 2007). The major drought risk management
practices and efforts are presented below.
3.1. Ex-ante drought risk coping strategies (reducing risk exposure)
Drought coping strategies can be classified into ex ante and ex
post, according to whether they help reduce risk a priori or for
minimizing undesirable outcomes after the shock has occurred
(Owens et al., 2003; Skoufias, 2003). Farmers living in drought
affected areas modify their production practices to provide ‘self-
insurance’ so that the likely impact of adverse consequences is
reduced to an acceptable level (Hansen et al., 2004; World Bank,
2005b; Pandey and Bhandari, 2009). Although they can be costly in
terms of forgone opportunities for income gains because of the
choice of safer but low-return activities by farmers, ex-ante strate-
gies help reduce income fluctuations and they are considered as
Fig. 2. Trends in drought return periods in Ethiopia.
Source: Adapted from Tesfaye and Assefa (2010) and NMSA (1987).
B. Shiferaw et al. / Weather and Climate Extremes 3 (2014) 67–7970