This document provides study material for Macroeconomics, including multiple choice questions, problem sets, and discussions on topics such as IS-LM model, equilibrium output, interest rates, government spending, and exchange rates. It covers various concepts and theories in macroeconomics.
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PART A: Multiple Choice Questions 1)Option A Explanation: For a closed economy, it is imperative that the public and private saving must be equal to the investment. For the given scenario, both public and private saving amount to 100 each which implies that the investment is 200. 2)Option C Explanation: In liquidity trap, people want to hold on to money rather than bonds. Also, the monetary policy is ineffective since the demand is not spurred even at zero interest rates. Fiscal policy proves to be effective in this scenario since it helps in increasing aggregate demand through fiscal stimulus. 3)Option B Explanation: It is apparent that there is a shifting of LM curve causing lowering rate and higher GDP output. This is typical of increasing money supply. As a result, purchase of securities from market would have been done by the central bank which would increase the liquidity in the market and lead to lowering interest rate and higher output. No changes in the tax has been done during movement from 3 to 1 since IS curve has not shifted. 4)Option C Explanation: The current price of the bond is the present value of expected cash flows in the future. If there is an increase in the interest rates, there would be a decrease in the present value of future cash flows leading to declining bond prices. The other statements do not offer explanation to the inverse relationship between bond prices and interest rates. 5)Option A Explanation: Option C offers the definition for nominal exchange rate. Option D is incorrect as it talks about trading of same goods. Option A is correct as real exchange rate compares the amount of goods and services that can be bought in the domestic market compared to that in international market using a common currency. 6)Option A Explanation: This option is true since fiscal consolidation is not aimed at providing a stimulus to the economy but rather ensuring that the tax revenue is increased along with more rational conduct of expenditure especially on social welfare so as to ensure that wastage and leakages are minimised. PART B: PROBLEM SET a)The IS relation is defined as follows. Y = C+ I+G Putting the respective values of C,I,G from the given relations, we obtain the following. Y = 400 + 0.25(Y-400) + 300 + 0.25Y -1500i + 600
Y = 400 + 0.25Y β 100 + 300 + 0.25Y -1500i + 600 Y = 1200 + 0.5Y -1500 i 0.5Y = 1200 β 1500i Y = 2400 β 3000i b)The LM equation can be derived by equation the real money demand and real money supply which is indicated below based on the available relations. 2Y-12000i = 3000 2Y = 3000 + 12000i Y=1500 + 6000i c)In order to find the equilibrium, the IS and LM equations need to be equated as shown below. 2400 β 3000i = 1500+6000i Solving the above, we get i = 0.1 or 10% For i =0.1, Y= 1500 + 6000*0.1 = 2100 Hence, equilibrium output is 2100 million and equilibrium interest rate is 10%. C = 400 + 0.25(2100-400) = 825 million I = 300 + 0.25*2100 β 1500*0.1 = 675 million d)If the interest rate is negative, then there would not be any incentive for the people to invest in bond as the present value of the future cash flows available from the bond would be negative. This is because there would be periodic interest outflow (instead of inflow) of interest payment to the issuer from the holder. As a result, it makes sense that the people would want to hold money rather than bonds. e)The LM curve would change as indicated below. 2Y-12000i = 4320 2Y= 4320 + 12000i Y = 2160 + 6000i The new equilibrium values can be estimated by equating the revised LM curve with the originally derived IS curve as shown below. 2400 β 3000i = 2160+6000i Solving the above, we get i = 0.0267 or 2.67% For i =0.0267, Y= 2160 + 6000*0.0267 = 2320 million Hence, new equilibrium output is 2320 million and equilibrium interest rate is 2.67%.
C = 400 + 0.25(2320-400) = 880 million I = 300 + 0.25*2320 β 1500*0.0267 = 840 million From the above computations, it is apparent that increased real money supply has led to lower interest rate which has dropped from 10% to 2.67%. This has resulted in a boost to the economy considering that consumption and investment have increased leading to higher output at 2320 million. f)In this scenario, there is an increase in the government spending. This would lead to an alteration in the LS curve and hence an increase in the equilibrium interest rate. The higher government spending would also provide a boost to the output which would also increase. This would enable an increase in consumption and investment in the medium to long run as the government spending would lead to an economic stimulus as highlighted in Keynesian economics. PART C 1)The given statement is true as the multiplier for government spending is greater than the corresponding multiplier for tax. The impact on equilibrium output is highlighted below. Change in equilibrium output = Multiplier factor * Change in factor value With regards to government spending multiplier, it is equal to 1/(1-MPC) where MPC is the marginal propensity to consumer. The tax multiplier has a value equal to MPC/(1-MPC). It is evident that the tax multiple is lower considering the fact that MPC lies between 0 and 1. The impact of government spending therefore is more profound on the aggregate demand as captured through the IS curve in comparison to tax cuts. 2)In the globalised world, there is an increasing trend for government and companies to borrow from abroad especially if the interest rates are lower. Typically the domestic interest rates are determined by the demand and supply of money which is regulated by the monetary policy. However, in order for the monetary policy to be effective, it is essential to have capital controls in place. This is required in order to ensure that the central bank can have reasonable control on the money demand and supply. One of the key tools used by central banks globally is open market operations which are used to manage liquidity. However, in absence of capital controls these would fail to have desired impact owing to presence of foreign capital in abundance considering that it can be withdrawn at any time. Hence, if there is limited money supply leading to higher interest, foreign money inflow into the nation would increase to capitalise on higher interest earnings leading to increased money supply and normalisation. An opposite effect could happen in case of excess liquidity in the system. As a result, the true cost of financing is determined not by the monetary policy but by the international financial markets. The levying of capital controls is considered to be prudent to some extent as has been highlighted the Asian financial crisis during 1997-1998. Capital controls ensure that there is no sudden capital flight and ensures that the domestic economy is more resilient to global shocks and related crisis. Capital controls ensure that domestic capital is readily available in domestic markets rather than being invested in foreign assets or financial markets which helps in keeping the interest rate low. Also, these controls allow for prudent macroeconomic policy based on domestic needs. 3)The requisite time period plot for the nominal exchange rate of Yen/USD is shown below.
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Data Source:https://www.macrotrends.net/2550/dollar-yen-exchange-rate-historical-chart The periods of Yen appreciation against USD are indicted below. 1)January 1971- June 1973 β Higher range for Yen is set against the USD in 1971 which allows it to appreciate. Also, in 1973, there is sizable appreciation in yen caused due to free floating of yen which was earlier not allowed. 2)December 1975- December 1978 β Appreciation as Yen continues to be free floating against the USD on account of high trade surpluses of Japan. 3)February 1985- April 1995 β The Plaza Accord is signed where it is highlighted that USD is overvalued and hence a weakening of the same is required which leads to significant appreciation of yen in the following years. At various times, Bank of Japan had to intervene to stop the falling dollar but with limited success only. 4)April 1998- April 2000 β Aggressive buying of Yen by both BOJ along with US authorities. Yen carry trade was also a contributor owing to low Japanese interest rate. 5)May 2007 β Oct 2012 β Owing to financial crisis in US coupled with unwinding of yen carry trade, there is significant appreciation in the yen against USD. The periods of Yen depreciation against USD are indicted below. 1)January 1979 β January 1985 β Broad trend of depreciation of yen despite high trade surpluses. This was because United States had higher interest rates which prompted Japanese investors to invest in US. 2)May 1995 β March 1998- The depreciation of yen is fuelled by trade tensions between US and Japan. 3)Oct 2012 β Oct 2015 β Slowing Japanese economy coupled with yen carry trade. From the above discussion, it is evident that there have been significant fluctuation in the nominal exchange rate during the 1970βs and 1980βs but this may be attributed to the discontinuation of Bretton Wood system coupled with introduction of floating exchange rate. However, in the recent times, these have relatively minimised with the exchange rate being range bound. This clearly has significant impact for the importers and exporters which are vital for Japanese economy taking into consideration the limited area and population which tend to increase integration with global economy for both exports and imports. Going forward, it makes sense for the BOJ (Bank of Japan) to define a suitable currency exchange range for Yen/USD based on short term fundamentals and make requisite intervention to prevent any shock to the economy while allowing market to discover the true exchange rate.