Supply Chain Simulation Reflective Report

This document is a supply chain simulation reflective report that provides insights into forecasting, demand planning, and supply chain management. It discusses the reliability of consensus forecasts, demand versus profitability, supply risk and cost evaluation, implications of markdown, inventory holding, and stockout costs, and concludes with a critical analysis of Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) Singapore's supply chain process.

Northumbria University
PT NTB BALSCM 21
Name: Jorris Ng Suet Teng
Student ID: w21068666
Applied Logistics and Supply Chain Management
2021YLSEM3_MO9519HSK31
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Table of Contents
Supply Chain Simulation Reflective Report..........................................................................................3
Reliability of Consensus Forecasts, Average and Standard Deviations..............................................3
Demand Versus Profitability..............................................................................................................3
Supply Risk & Cost Evaluation between Overseas and Domestics Suppliers.....................................3
Implications of Markdown, Inventory Holding, and Stockout Costs..................................................4
Conclusion.........................................................................................................................................4
Critical Analysis of Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) Singapore’s Supply Chain Process..........................5
Introduction.......................................................................................................................................5
The Logistics Process of KFC Singapore’s Supply Chain......................................................................5
Key Issues of KFC Singapore’s Logistics Process.................................................................................5
Root Causes of the Key Issues in KFC Singapore’s Logistic Process....................................................5
Recommended Solutions to the Identified Logistic Process Issues....................................................5
Conclusion.........................................................................................................................................5
Bibliography...........................................................................................................................................6
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Supply Chain Simulation Reflective Report
The simulation has offered a comprehensive understanding of the forecasting and demand
planning processes. I can observe how my actions will affect the sales performance of the
firm. As the basis for my assessment about projections and demand fulfillment, I have
considered four fundamental factors.
Reliability of Consensus Forecasts, Average and Standard Deviations
Forecasting demand requires an understanding of how to evaluate forecasting
methodologies; thus, assessing the accuracy of consensus predictions and how to analyze
the average and standard deviations is essential. The significant degree of disagreement
among the many forecasts shared in the design room is a good indicator of demand
uncertainty. Therefore, the accuracy of the average consensus must be reviewed further for
consideration. I've also observed that Byron and Ruth's absences may impact the
correctness of the shared consensus demand since their opinion are not supported with
justifications. The evaluations of demand certainty will then play a crucial role in
incorporating deviations into the final production forecast.
Demand Versus Profitability
It's essential to compare the forecast to actual demand and comprehend how different
approaches may influence profitability. This may be analyzed using the sales and operations
planning (S&OP) methodology I've learnt from this module. S&OP strives to agree on a
single operational strategy to satisfy client demands most effectively and profitably. Several
variables contribute to demand, yet due to fluctuating demand risks, not all may boost
profitability. I've learned to examine not only whether add-on product enhancements would
raise demand, but also if they will increase profit and risk deviating from the average
forecast. For example, a corporation consistently overestimates the demand for several
important product lines, resulting in bigger inventories and fewer stock flips. By regularly
assessing and monitoring the prediction, sales forecasting may assist establish what
inventory objectives should be and the reasons, as well as what an acceptable forecast
should be. (Pentz, 2019) By using the S&OP model, I've learned that it's crucial to evaluate
not just demand and supply planning, but also product management.
Supply Risk & Cost Evaluation between Overseas and Domestics
Suppliers
Profitability is dependent on the management of a business's flexibility. This is also crucial
for supply chains, where delays, production limits, and component shortages have had a
significant impact on company, but a flexible approach to supply chain management helps
mitigate these challenges. (Brind, 2020) Diversifying supplier locations, such as by keeping a
healthy balance of local and foreign suppliers, may mitigate demand volatility. It is feasible
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to overcome travel restrictions, such as longer lead times from international suppliers, by
diversifying the supply chain across various countries. The simulation has showed me that
products with a greater demand certainty may be confidently designed for offshore
manufacturing, since they would likely need fewer adjustments. The products with the most
unpredictability should be arranged with domestic providers with short lead time. Strategic
sourcing, which fosters ongoing reevaluation of a company's purchasing procedures, is
essential for adding flexibility into the supply chain. I've learned to frequently analyze
demand fluctuations and market impacts on demands. Appropriate allocation of projected
output between international and local suppliers enables me to adjust production plans to
prevent stockout costs.
Implications of Markdown, Inventory Holding, and Stockout Costs
I have learnt from the simulation the importance of weighing the best cost scenario for the business
between stockout versus inventory holding and markdown costs. It is critical to consider whether it
be better to plan for an acceptable surplus in view of the potential deviations that may lead to sales
loss due to stockout. Production adjustment cost is also another element to keep in mind as well as
part of the implications. All these above also plays an important role in the business profitability.
Maintaining accurate inventory records and an adequate safety stock level that is frequently
adjusted to accommodate continuing fluctuations in customer demand may help a company avoid
stockouts. (Gameleira, 2022) Actual demand needs to be updated frequently to assess against the
inventory level so as to respond quickly to ensure safety stocks are kept appropriately according to
reprojections.
Conclusion
Overall, I've learned that to effectively manage the supply chain, it's necessary to examine
the interconnected variables of sales, operations, and supply and demand planning. The
consensus of the various departments on forecasting is significant to the accuracy. There are
no guarantees, therefore the supply chain must constantly be prepared to evaluate the risks
and determine the most lucrative and adaptable plan for securing the products. Historical
data might be an excellent starting point; nevertheless, it is also critical to plan for demand
uncertainty. As a supply chain manager, I've learned that choices must be evaluated often to
ensure they stay viable in the face of fluctuating demand trends.
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Critical Analysis of Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC)
Singapore’s Supply Chain Process
Introduction
A steady supply of resources is essential for every business. Logistics is a critical part of the
supply chain, and it is the responsibility of supply chain managers to ensure that material is
distributed as accurately and thoroughly as feasible. All components of resource flow are
best managed by a single, unified function. (Waters, 2003, p. 12) In contrast to supply chain
management (SCM), logistics is the process of distributing and positioning materials along a
supply network and can be refer as a sub category of the entire SCM structure. (Taylor,
2002, p. 25) KFC, a subsidiary of Yum! Brands, Inc., is a worldwide quick service restaurant
(QSR) brand well known for their fried chicken with a history of great accomplishment and
innovation spanning decades. The KFC brand has established over 25,000 outlets in more
than 145 countries globally. (Yum! Ltd, 2022) The most critical ingredient to be transferred
while assuring freshness in controlled temperature requirements in the instance of KFC is
chicken. This calls for a robust and consistent logistics management to guarantee that vital
supplies are delivered on time and precisely for everyday operations. This report aims to
analyze the logistics process of KFC in Singapore and identify the core logistics issues with
recommendations from best supply chain practices that is relevant to the business logistics
process.
The Logistics Process of KFC Singapore’s Supply Chain
KFC Singapore uses an outsourced logistic partner for their warehousing and distribution
management. Outsourcing logistics is a clever way to free up resources and ultimately
become closer to customers' expectation on assuring on-time delivery. On top of benefits
like real-time inventory visibility and professional document processing, there are
downsides that might harm the business if not properly assessed and managed.
Disconnected communication and collaboration in logistics procedures and neglecting
ethical and quality principles are instances. (PLANETTOGETHER, 2020) The KFC supply chain
encompasses managing consumers, sourcing, purchasing, serving, delivering, and
minimizing returns. KFC must ensure recipe quality to execute the value chain. The below
model displays the setup of a QSR supply chain configuration like KFC Singapore.
Source: (Chegg Inc., 2020)
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The above model depicts the KFC Singapore supply chain flow on fulfilling the end
consumers' order. The supplier provides necessary resources such as food ingredients and
equipment. The warehouse ambient and cold storage ensure consistent quality from
receiving to delivery. KFC Singapore’s supply chain includes sourcing, forecasting demands,
inventory planning, warehousing, pick-up and distribution to the outlets. The logistic
process encompasses the stage from receiving the resources up till delivery.
KFC Singapore hires a team of supply chain specialists to manage the sourcing, forecasting,
Key Issues of KFC Singapore’s Logistics Process
400words
Root Causes of the Key Issues in KFC Singapore’s Logistic Process
500words
Recommended Solutions to the Identified Logistic Process Issues
500words
Conclusion
150words
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Bibliography
Brind, J. (2020, December 11). Why flexibility is so valuable in supply chain management. Retrieved
from ExploreSCM Web site: https://explorescm.com/why-flexibility-is-so-valuable-in-supply-
chain-management/#:~:text=%20Why%20flexibility%20is%20so%20valuable%20in
%20supply,is%20a%20method%20of%20sourcing%20that...%20More%20
Gameleira, C. (2022, April 14). Stockout Cost and Impacts on Operations. Retrieved from Supplybrain
Web site: https://supplybrain.ai/stockout-cost-and-impacts-on-operations/
Pentz, K. (2019, June 1). THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DEMAND PLANNING, FORECASTING AND
S&OP. Retrieved from Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning Web site:
https://demand-planning.com/2019/06/01/the-difference-between-demand-planning-
forecasting-and-sop/
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