Supply Chain Simulation Reflective Report

Northumbria University
PT NTB BALSCM 21
Name: Jorris Ng Suet Teng
Student ID: w21068666
Applied Logistics and Supply Chain Management
2021YLSEM3_MO9519HSK31
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Table of Contents
Supply Chain Simulation Reflective Report..........................................................................................3
Reliability of Consensus Forecasts, Average and Standard Deviations..............................................3
Demand Versus Profitability..............................................................................................................3
Supply Risk & Cost Evaluation between Overseas and Domestics Suppliers.....................................3
Implications of Markdown, Inventory Holding, and Stockout Costs..................................................4
Conclusion.........................................................................................................................................4
Critical Analysis of Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) Singapore’s Supply Chain Process..........................5
Introduction.......................................................................................................................................5
The Logistics Process of KFC Singapore’s Supply Chain......................................................................5
Key Issues of KFC Singapore’s Logistics Process.................................................................................5
Root Causes of the Key Issues in KFC Singapore’s Logistic Process....................................................5
Recommended Solutions to the Identified Logistic Process Issues....................................................5
Conclusion.........................................................................................................................................5
Bibliography...........................................................................................................................................6
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Supply Chain Simulation Reflective Report
The simulation has offered a comprehensive understanding of the forecasting and demand
planning processes. I can observe how my actions will affect the sales performance of the
firm. As the basis for my assessment about projections and demand fulfillment, I have
considered four fundamental factors.
Reliability of Consensus Forecasts, Average and Standard Deviations
Forecasting demand requires an understanding of how to evaluate forecasting
methodologies; thus, assessing the accuracy of consensus predictions and how to analyze
the average and standard deviations is essential. The significant degree of disagreement
among the many forecasts shared in the design room is a good indicator of demand
uncertainty. Therefore, the accuracy of the average consensus must be reviewed further for
consideration. I've also observed that Byron and Ruth's absences may impact the
correctness of the shared consensus demand since their opinion are not supported with
justifications. The evaluations of demand certainty will then play a crucial role in
incorporating deviations into the final production forecast.
Demand Versus Profitability
It's essential to compare the forecast to actual demand and comprehend how different
approaches may influence profitability. This may be analyzed using the sales and operations
planning (S&OP) methodology I've learnt from this module. S&OP strives to agree on a
single operational strategy to satisfy client demands most effectively and profitably. Several
variables contribute to demand, yet due to fluctuating demand risks, not all may boost
profitability. I've learned to examine not only whether add-on product enhancements would
raise demand, but also if they will increase profit and risk deviating from the average
forecast. For example, a corporation consistently overestimates the demand for several
important product lines, resulting in bigger inventories and fewer stock flips. By regularly
assessing and monitoring the prediction, sales forecasting may assist establish what
inventory objectives should be and the reasons, as well as what an acceptable forecast
should be. (Pentz, 2019) By using the S&OP model, I've learned that it's crucial to evaluate
not just demand and supply planning, but also product management.
Supply Risk & Cost Evaluation between Overseas and Domestics
Suppliers
Profitability is dependent on the management of a business's flexibility. This is also crucial
for supply chains, where delays, production limits, and component shortages have had a
significant impact on company, but a flexible approach to supply chain management helps
mitigate these challenges. (Brind, 2020) Diversifying supplier locations, such as by keeping a
healthy balance of local and foreign suppliers, may mitigate demand volatility. It is feasible
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