TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................3 1. Arranging data in a structured format................................................................................3 2. Graphical presentation of data set......................................................................................3 3. Calculating descriptive statistics of Lewisham wind speed data and showing steps of calculation..............................................................................................................................4 4. Doing forecast by using linear method of statistics...........................................................7 CONCLUSION..........................................................................................................................9 REFERENCES.........................................................................................................................10
INTRODUCTION Data analysis includes statistical tools and techniques which in turn help in analyzing numeric facts & figures effectually. Statistical tools are highly significant as it helps in evaluating present and making forecast about future. For this project report Lewisham of London has been selected.This study will provide insight about weather condition in terms of wind speed pertaining to Lewisham. 1. Arranging data in a structured format Data ofLewisham wind speed (10 consecutive days) from 30thSeptember to 9thOctober is presented below: DateKm/h 30-Sep20 01-Oct27 02-Oct5 03-Oct22 04-Oct5 05-Oct12 06-Oct16 07-Oct15 08-Oct22 09-Oct21 (Source:Lewisham weather data. 2019) 2. Graphical presentation of data set Line graph
30-Sep 01-Oct 02-Oct 03-Oct 04-Oct 05-Oct 06-Oct 07-Oct 08-Oct 09-Oct 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Km/h Km/h Column graph 30-Sep01-Oct02-Oct03-Oct04-Oct05-Oct06-Oct07-Oct08-Oct09-Oct 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Km/h Km/h 3. Calculating descriptive statistics of Lewisham wind speed data and showing steps of calculation i. Mean Step 1: Firstly, need to determine the number of observation Step 2: Total of wind speed (km/hr) pertaining to 10 days are calculated Step 3: At this stage, mean value can be determined by dividing∑X from n (Sclove, 2018) DateKm/h 30-Sep20
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01-Oct27 02-Oct5 03-Oct22 04-Oct5 05-Oct12 06-Oct16 07-Oct15 08-Oct22 09-Oct21 (∑X)165 Number of observations10 Mean 165 / 10 = 16.5 Referring evaluation, it can be presented that during the period of past days from 30th September to 9thOctober average speed of wind was 16.5km/hr. ii. Median Step 1: Arranging data set in an ascending manner: DateKm/h 30-Sep5 01-Oct5 02-Oct12 03-Oct15 04-Oct16 05-Oct20 06-Oct21 07-Oct22 08-Oct22 09-Oct27 Step 2: M = (number of observation + 1) / 2 Accordingly: Number of observation = 10 M = (10 + 1) / 2 = 5.5
Step 3: Thus, m = (value of 5th+ 6thitem) / 2 M = (16 + 20) / 2 = 36 / 2 = 18 km / hr From assessment, it has found that 50% value from gathered data set is related to the figure of 18 km/hr. iii. Mode The above mentioned data set clearly exhibits that mode value implies for 5and 22 km/hr. Moreover, among 10 observations these values occurred twice so it considered as mode. As, on 30thSeptember and 1stOctober speed of wind in Lewisham was 5 km/hr. Besides this, on 7thand 8thOctober wind speed implies for 22 km/hr respectively. iv. Range Steps of determining range value: Step 1: Identification of highest value Maximum value: 27 Step 2: Assessing smallest value from data set Minimum value: 5 Step 3: Range value can be determined by subtracting smallest figure from the highest one (Amrhein, Trafimow and Greenland, 2019) Range: 27 – 5 = 22 km/hr v. Standard deviation Step 1: Calculating squares of wind speed value (X) which in turn denoted asX^2 Step 2: Now, calculating the sum ofX^2
Step 3: Thereafter,∑x^2 / N Step 4: (∑x / n) ^ 2 Step 5: outcome of Step3 – step 4 Step 6: for determining SD Square of step 5 is calculated such as:SQRT 49.05 = 7 km/hr Date Km/h (x)X^2 30-Sep20400 01-Oct27729 02-Oct525 03-Oct22484 04-Oct525 05-Oct12144 06-Oct16256 07-Oct15225 08-Oct22484 09-Oct21441 Total1653213 Standard deviation= Square root of∑x^2 / N – (∑x / n) ^ 2 =SQRT of (3213/ 10) – (165/ 10) ^ 2 = SQRT of 321.3 – 272.25 = SQRT 49.05 = 7 km/hr Outcome of SD shows that mean value of wind speed will deviate from 7 km/hr. Hence, referring this figure weather department can do planning about near future. 4. Doing forecast by using linear method of statistics i. Steps of calculating m value Through following below mentioned steps value of m can be calculated m = NΣxy – Σx Σy / NΣ x^2 – (Σx)^2 1. In the first stageΣxy is multiplied by n
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2. Thereafter, multiplication ofΣx*Σy with n will be done 3. At third stage, following formula is used NΣxy – Σx Σy 4.NΣ x^2 – (Σx)^2 is done 5. Output ofNΣxy – Σx Σy / NΣ x^2 – (Σx)^2
ii. Presenting the steps of calculating c By undertaking following steps value of c can be determined: 1. Initialy,summation of Y (wind speed data) is determined 2. At this step, following formula is multiplied M *ΣX 3. Thereafter, value of m *Σx is divided by n 4.For calculating value of c outcome of step 3 is subtracted from Σy iii. Making wind speed forecast for day 14 and 21 DateX Km/hr (y)XYX^2 30-Sep1551 01-Oct25104 02-Oct312369 03-Oct4156016 04-Oct5168025 05-Oct62012036 06-Oct72114749 07-Oct82217664 08-Oct92219881 09-Oct1027270100 Total551651102385 m = NΣxy – Σx Σy / NΣ x^2 – (Σx)^2 Y = mX + c m = 10 (1102) - (55 * 165) / (10 * 385) – (55)^2 m = (11020 - 9075) / (3850 – 3025) m = 1945 / 825 m = 2.36
c = Σy – m Σx / N c = 165 – (2.36 * 55) / 10 c = (165 – 129.67) / 10 c = 35.33 / 10 c = 3.53 Forecasting wind speed km/hrfor day 14 Y = mX + cHere x = day 14 Y =2.36(14) + (3.53) Y = 33 + 3.53 Y = 36.53 km/hr Forecasting forday 21 Y = mX + cHere x = day 21 Y =2.36(21) + 3.53 Y = 49.51 + 3.53 Y = 53.04 km/hr CONCLUSION In conclusion to this report, it can be presented that fluctuating trend takes place in the wind speed ofLewisham area. Further, it has been articulated that by taking into account linear forecasting prediction about Lewisham wind speed can be done appropriately.
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REFERENCES Books and Journals Amrhein, V., Trafimow, D. and Greenland, S., 2019. Inferential statistics as descriptive statistics: There is no replication crisis if we don’t expect replication.The American Statistician.73(sup1). pp.262-270. Sclove, S. L., 2018.A course on statistics for finance. Chapman and Hall/CRC. Online Lewishamweatherdata.2019.Online.Availablethrough:< https://www.worldweatheronline.com/lewisham-weather-history/lewisham-greater- london/gb.aspx>