OPM300 Introduction to Operations Management: Delphi Exercise SLP 1

This assignment is for OPM300 Introduction to Operations Management, and it requires the completion of the first round of a three-round Delphi decision-making exercise. The student, acting as the coordinator, selects a future outcome expressed as a single-number probability, such as the likelihood of an event occurring. They then involve three participants (family members, friends, or other students, excluding those in the course) in the process. The assignment includes the letters to the participants explaining the project, their first-round responses (edited to remove identifying information), and adheres to the BSBA Writing Style Guide. The assignment also provides the 'Test Your Understanding' section with a glossary and references related to the Delphi method and process flowcharts. The student is instructed to follow a detailed example provided in the course materials. The focus is on applying the Delphi method to forecast the probability of a future event, incorporating participant feedback in a structured manner.

OPM300 Introduction to Operations Management SLP 1
Order # 17011737017936
Complete the first round of a three-round Delphi decision-making
exercise. Before reading further, please be sure you’ve read the discussion
about the Delphi process on this Module’s Homepage. It includes
information that is not repeated here.
Topic:
For the sake of simplicity, choose a future outcome that can be expressed
as a single-number probability, or likelihood. Examples include
 The likelihood that X will be elected (to some office) in 20##.
 The likelihood that Y will win the Super Bowl / World Series / NBA
Championship in 20##.
 The percentage of feature films that will consist entirely of computer-
generated imagery by the year 20##.
The topic should be something that both you and your exercise participants
care about, and also know something about (although you need not be
experts).
Participants:
You will be the coordinator. Select three other persons as participants.
Their cooperation will be important, so be sure to choose people you can
count on. These can be either family members, close friends, or other
students (although not students enrolled in this course. They’ll be busy
coordinating their own Delphi exercises.)
SLP Assignment Expectations
As closely as possible, the SLP should follow the detailed example, which
is cited in the Home Page discussion. You may copy and / or adapt
verbiage from the example without citing it. (This special dispensation is
intended to help move things along.)
The SLP writeup should include
 The Letters to the Participants, explaining the project and requesting their
assistance.

 The first-round responses from the participants, edited to remove identifying
information (such as email addresses).
 Follow the instructions in the BSBA Writing Style Guide (July 2014 edition),
available online at
https://mytlc.trident.edu/files/Writing-Guide_Trident_2014.pdf.
 There are no guidelines concerning length. Write what you need to write –
neither more, nor less.
 In the SLP ONLY, references and citations are NOT required. However: If
you state a fact, express an opinion, or use a turn of phrase that isn’t your
own, then you should credit the source, just like you would in everyday
conversation. (Example: “As Rodney Dangerfield always used to say, ‘I get
no respect!’ “)
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Answer for TEST YOUR UNDERSTANDING (Home page)
GLOSSARY
Start: Patient arrives at
the front desk.
A. Has patient been
admitted?
B. Patient checked
into ward.
C. Is patient in labor?
D. Patient sent to
admission office.
E. Patient is admitted.
References
Landeta, J. (2006). Current validity of the Delphi method in
social sciences. Technological Forecasting and social
change, 73(5): 467-482.
Linstone, H. & Turoff, M. (2011). Delphi: A brief look
backward and forward. Technological Forecasting and
Social Change, 78 (9); 1712-1719

Rensvold, R. (2014a). How to draw a process
flowchart [PowerPoint slides]. Available in OPM300
Introduction to Operations Management at Trident University
International, 5757 Plaza Drive, Suite 100, Cypress, CA
90630.
*Rensvold, R. (2014b). Delphi exercise example [Word
document]. Available in OPM300 Introduction to Operations
Management at Trident University International, 5757 Plaza
Drive, Suite 100, Cypress, CA 90630.