Complex Project Management

Running head: PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Complex Project Management
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Introduction
The Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD) which was also formerly known as
the Millennium Dam is a gravity dam that is located along the great river Nile (Blue Nile)
and has been under construction as from the year 2011. The GERD dam is located 15 km east
of their neighboring country Sudan in the region of Benishangul-Gumuz. Upon its
completion, the dam will be the largest hydro-electric power plant in the whole of Africa
producing 6.45 gigawatts. According to its megawatt production and electric generating
capacity, it will be the 7th largest power plant in the world. Its completion level stood at 70%
as of August 2017 (Cascão, & Nicol, 2016). The total reservoir will take between 5 to 15
years to be fully filled with water and this depends on hydrologic conditions and agreements
with neighboring countries that is Sudan and Egypt which share the same water from River
Nile.
During the administration of Prime Minister Akilu Habteworld, the US Bureau of
Reclamation identified the site in which the dam will be located. This was between 1956-
1974, however, due to the coup that took place in 1974, the project was abandoned and did
not progress from there. During the administration of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, the
Ethiopian government surveyed the site and in 2010 November, the dam design was
submitted. A day after the survey and project design was submitted and made public, a
contract worth $8.4 billion was awarded to the contractor, Salini Construttori without public
participation and competitive bidding (Cascão, & Nicol, 2017)
Abstract

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The prime minister laid the foundation stone on April 2nd 2011. Originally the dam
was called “Project X’ but after the announcement of the dam contract it was called the
Millennium Dam. There have been several challenges facing the dam construction like the
opposition of its neighbor Egypt which lies downstream. It believes that it will receive far
much less water than it is receiving after the dam is constructed. The first two turbines are
expected to be operational after the first four years from its construction. A study conducted
for feasibility study of the led to a strong argument for the construction of the dam and a
counter argument against Egypt’s position. In fact, the fact is the dam will not tamper with
the flow of water to Egypt according to the report but would also regulate the water that will
be used for irrigation. Ethiopia shared a blue print of the unnamed study with Egypt so that
the country would examine the impact of water flow in downstream. The council of ministers
then renamed it the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in April 15th 2011 (Cavanagh, 2017).
The funding of the dam is done through government bonds and other sources of capital like
private donations. With the completion of the dam, Ethiopia has a potential of producing 45
GW of hydropower nationally. This is enough for the cheapest power rates in Africa spurring
national growth and creating opportunities for more investors due to a decrease in power.
Main Findings
The impact of the completion of the GERD dam in Ethiopia was riddled by
controversies. Egypt which is a neighbor of Ethiopia and heavily relies on River Nile wanted
the construction of the dam to be halted due to its potential negative impact on the
downstream. As a precondition for negotiation, the dam was to be halted due to the effect.
Egypt has sought massive regional and international support for the position it takes and
some leaders have already discussed methods of sabotaging the project. Egypt, through a

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massive diplomatic initiative has planned ways of undermining the project and the support
that Ethiopia receives from the region as well as international partners and countries that are
fully behind the project such as Italy and China (Haghshenas, et al ,2016). Egypt faces an
uphill task in trying to hold the project since most of the countries in the Nile Basin Initiative
have expressed their full support for the project. Sudan, the other country downstream has
also accused Egypt of inflaming and igniting tensions to aggravate the situation. The finding
in the unnamed study shows that there will be no negative impact on the flow of water
downstream and indeed it will reduce evaporation that is mainly reducing the water and
increase the water on Lake Nasser. The findings show that Ethiopia will not affect the flow of
water after construction of the GERD Dam. It has on the other hand accused Egypt of being
difficult to deal with and unreasonable. Egypt’s demand is that the flow of water downstream
increases from 66% to 90%.
Explanation of project environment and main complexity causes
The complexity will be categorized into four types of complexity namely: structural,
directional, technical and temporal.
1. Structural
As the biggest Dam in Africa, the structural complexity begins right from the feasibility study
and straight into the design of the dam. It is one of the most complex structurally and has a lot
of complexity in its foundations. Despite the fact that the International Commission on Large
Dams was originally related to the safety of dams, it became quite early in its interest in
environmental issues. Possible defects and breakages in mechanical and electrical work
carried out by the fired and the disgraced Ethiopian state owned company will add four more
years in delay. The construction of the GERD project will delay with four years. A senior

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minister in the government said that the government made a grave mistake in in awarding a
contract to a military led conglomerate, Metal Engineering Corporation (Metec) which was
awarded $853 m in 2011. This contract was to install electric turbines and other mechanical
and electrical works under the main contractor Salini Impregilo (Hanna, Vanclay, Langdon,
& Arts, 2016). The military conglomerate was being investigated for corruption and possible
supply of defective equipment. The minister said they would devise remediation plans that
would be useful for correction of possible equipment defects.
Metec was fired after the main contractor Salini decried the delay it has seen in
mechanical and electric works associated with Metec. The director general of Metec in
November was arrested of corruption related charges as he tried to flee to Khartoum Sudan.
With a new administration under a young prime minister with a whole support of the country,
experts have seen the move against Metec as a determined effort to clean up politics in
Ethiopia and balance the interest of ethnic minorities. Metec, according to analysts is a tool
for Ethiopia former governing elite which was dominated by a small ethnic group the
Tigrayan ethnic group. It was noted that the corporation had no prior knowledge on
hydropower fitting and works. The government had made a mistake of assigning a local
contractor who had no knowledge and experience in a complex project of this magnitude.
Ethiopia is now paying for the costly mistake of engaging a corrupt corporation used as a tool
for corruption and state capture gimmicks.
2. Directional
The direction of the dam is complex as it is situated along the River Nile flow. The
direction of the river coupled with geopolitical hindrances brought about by unsatisfied Egypt
show another complex issue. The directional complexity is also in the time used to complete
the project which is most the most important in government projects. Due to the fact that this

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is a government project, the different changes in regimes has led to directional complexities
as is seen with prime minister change form Zenawi to Abby currently.
Official estimation show that the project is now 65% complete as cited by the AP. It is the
headline of all government projects and Ethiopia’s most important project. It will add an
additional 6.4 GW to its generating capacity. By 2016, World Bank data showed that only 43
million of Ethiopia’s total population of 100 million had access to electricity. This is only
43% of the country. The introduction of 6.4GW of electricity to the grid will ensure that a
substantial number of the remaining 57 million people out of the grid are supplied with
electricity (Kerzner, 2017). .
Another complex issue is the sparked tension between Ethiopia and Egypt in water
running downstream. Egypt as initially mentioned views the dam as a threat to the water
supply. This has led to regional tensions caused by the fact that Egypt is a superpower while
Ethiopia is an emerging power in the region. Due to the political interest in the massive
project, there was mass outpouring of grief and anger after the chief engineer of GERD was
found shot dead in his car in July in Addis Ababa. According to the AP, police ruled out
suicide and concluded that this was foul play by powers that are opposed to the success of the
project under the new regime (Kerzner, & Kerzner, 2017).
3. Technical
The construction of the GERD project will delay with four years. A senior minister in the
government said that the government made a grave mistake in in awarding a contract to a
military led conglomerate, Metal Engineering Corporation (Metec) which was awarded $853
m in 2011. This contract was to install electric turbines and other mechanical and electrical
works under the main contractor Salini Impregilo. The military conglomerate was being
investigated for corruption and possible supply of defective equipment. The minister said