Project Management: Probabilistic Scheduling and Critical Chain Theory

Project Management

Contents
Introduction:...............................................................................................................................2
Answer 1....................................................................................................................................2
Probabilistic scheduling:........................................................................................................2
Comparison between PERT chart and Monte-carlo simulation:............................................3
Answer 2:...................................................................................................................................4
Answer 3:...................................................................................................................................6
Answer 4:...................................................................................................................................8
Objectives of project scope management plan.......................................................................8
Benefits of Project scope management plan:.........................................................................9
Answer 5:.................................................................................................................................10
Critical path of project.........................................................................................................10
Planned duration of project in Weeks..................................................................................11
Identify non-critical tasks and float value for each activity.................................................11
References................................................................................................................................13

Introduction:
In the given case study, the project fails due to unclear estimation of time duration for
completing the tasks flawlessly. Productivity of the workers gets affected due to insufficient
time allocated to them. Failure of the project occurs since ineffective project planning
methodology is applied which hinders the accuracy in the estimation of time. Overrunning of
the project occurs by not assuming uncertainties associated with project development plan to
synchronise time and budget to achieve common goal and objectives (Ollows, 2015).
Problem solving approach helps in managing team spirit and improve the quality of work
provided by the worker and helps in completing the project with accuracy.
During the investigation, it is identified that deterministic schedules are prepared for
managing the interconnection between the tasks to describe interdependencies to improving
the performance of work and with expected duration of work. Planning of task is based on
allocation of resources and time duration to complete the work within the given time
framework (Tomomitsu, Carvalho, and Moraes, 2018). Predecessor and successor of the
tasks are allocated with each activity to clarify the dependencies of task. Closed network of
activities is created which helps in defining the critical path of the project plan. Effective
action for minimizing the impact of critical path and completing the activities within the
given time helps in lowers down the risks and complexities associated with it.
Answer 1
Probabilistic scheduling:
In probabilistic scheduling, network of activities is managed by inducing the random
variables to the activities for allocation of time. Starting and end date of the project is
specified. There is no fixed value of time duration for completing activities. Activities are
completed at random time variables. Activities of probabilistic scheduling are same as
deterministic scheduling such as synchronising activities, allocation of cost, allocation of
time, allocation of resources (Sulaman, Weyns, and Host, 2013).
The two commonly used probabilistic scheduling are pert chart and monte-carlo simulation.
Pert Chart
Pert chart are developed for allocating the duration of time. Estimation of activities depends
on pessimistic and optimistic value to the project schedule and tasks.

Variability of project activities can be measured by adding the variance of time associated
with each activity (Ryan, and Efatmaneshnik, 2015). Probability can be determined by
defining the pert analysis. Key activities of probabilistic scheduling are highlighted below:
 No fixed value of time duration for completing activities
 Major activities are synchronising activities, allocation of cost, allocation of time,
allocation of resources
 Pert chart are developed for allocating the duration of time
Monte-carlo simulation:
Monte-carlo simulation is the mathematical approach which is used for evaluating the risks
and uncertainty associated with the accessing of information. Decisions are depends on the
analysis of risks impact on the project outcome. Quantitative risks analysis helps in
increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of the decision making process. It is based on
probability distribution which are named as normal, Lognormal, uniform, and triangular. It
provides graphical results of the processes and helps in evaluating the scenario and sensitivity
analysis.
Comparison between PERT chart and Monte-carlo simulation:
PERT chart Monte-carlo Simulation
In Pert chart, network of activities is
managed by inducing the random variables to
the activities for allocation of time.
Monte-carlo simulation is the mathematical
approach which is used for evaluating the
risks and uncertainty associated with the
accessing of information (Obradovic, and
et.al., 2014).
Certainty of time duration for completing the
given tasks is not fixed
Duration of activities is allocated by
analysing the details of quantitative data
It focuses on research and development
program for completing the tasks with
efficiency and expertise
It focuses on evaluating the risks associated
with the project activities
It does not focus on the project failure and
factors responsible to hinder the successful
completion of project
It focuses on the project failure and factors
responsible to hinder the successful
completion of project. It helps in minimizing
the risks at an early stage of the project for