Financial Analyst of Clothes Shoes and Jewellery Industry in United States | Assignment

Added on - Sep 2019

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Question 1"You are a financial analyst in a major company in the 'Clothes, shoes and jewerly' industry in theUnited States. Your boss has tasked you with producing a sales forecast for the next 12 months ofthe overall industry. Your forecast will become the input to plan internal resources. Your boss wantsto ensure that the right amount of materials, cash and people is in place to satisfy, no more and noless, the projected sales. Therefore, accuracy is quite important.In the file attached, you will find data from April 2003 through Mar 2014. Your task is to produce amonthly forecast for April 2014 through March 2015 (12 next months). "You need to come up with the best possible forecast using the methods we learnt in class. You willneed to input your forecast month by month in the last question of this quiz.In addition, there are six numeric questions you need to answer to assess your understanding of thedifferent forecasting methods we learnt in class. It is important to note that myCourses randomlyselects questions corresponding to different methods, regardless of whether that is the best methodfor the specific data set you have received.There is also one open-ended question about trend and seasonality.In other words, to achieve the highest possible grades in this quiz you need to:Accurately answer the numeric questions about R^2, RMSE, Seasonal Factors andDeseasonalized Sales for a given method. This method may or may not be the most accurateone for your industry.Answer the open ended question about trend and seasonality observed in your industry.Produce the most accurately possible sales forecast for the next 12 months using anymethod and adjustments you may wish to follow.How will you be evaluated?For the randomly selected set of six questions, there is one single correct answer and youwill need to input accurately to earn marks.Each of the six questions is worth seven points.You need to answer an open ended question about your understanding of the trend andseasonality in your industry worth 15 points.You need to produce a usable forecast for your industry. Usable means that it makes sensebecause it follows the historical trend and seasonality accounting for unusual events, as well asany necessary manual adjustments. This is worth five points.Since we are aiming for accuracy, your forecast will be evaluated against the forecasts ofyour fellow classmates. The most accurate forecast will receive full marks (40 points), the leastaccurate forecast will receive zero marks and a ranking order for the forecasts in between willreceive partial ranked marks.
The point above means that it is in your best interest for you to outperform yourclassmates. In other words, your helping of other classmates will have a negative impactin your score by design: the more accurate the forecast of a classmate of yours the lessmarks you will receive. And the more accurate your forecast compared to the class themore marks you will receive.Acknowledgement of your understanding of these instructions and confirmation of havingaccess to the raw historical data of your industry grants you three points.Make sure you checkthe box that reads "I understand and accept my task..." to earn three points.Access your excel calledClothes shoes and jewerly Industry (1).xlsxThe next six questions are designed to probe your understanding of the different methods we learntin class.You are required to perform calculations to answer the given questions. For example, if you receivea question about the error for the linear regression with dummies, you have to transform the datainto monthly dummy variables, run the regression, and calculate the RMSE.You need to base your answers on the calculations using all 132 monthly sales figures. In otherwords, when running your regressions and moving averages for the next six questions, you arerequired to use all points given in your data set.Question 2What is the RMSE for the linear method? (Simple linear regression, no dummies)Round to zero decimal places. This is,input the value as an integer (whole number). Don't usecomma or points to separate the thousands. See examples:If your resulting RMSE = 6,890.21, you enter 6890If your resulting RMSE = 17,219.83, you enter 17220If your resulting RMSE = 507.41, you enter 507Question 3What is the Adjusted R-Square of the linear model? (Simple linear regression, no dummies)Round to one decimal place and enter the value as percentage without the percentage sign. Use aperiod (or point) to separate the integer from the fraction, DO NOT USE comma. See examples:If your resulting Adj R-Square = 49.31%, you enter 49.3If your resulting Adj R-Square = 65.89%, you enter 65.9If your resulting Adj R-Square = 0.3213, you enter 32.1
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