Heathrow Expansion: A Risk Evaluation

This document provides a risk evaluation of the Heathrow airport expansion project. It discusses the various risks associated with the expansion and suggests ways to minimize them. The document is relevant to the subject of Aviation Management and the course code AVIA 301.

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HEATHROW EXPANSION:A RISK EVALUATION
Report on risk and value management
9/26/2019
Student’s Name

HEATHROW EXPANSION: A RISK EVALUATION 1
Executive Summary:
The second name of Heathrow airport is London Heathrow Airport, which is the second
busiest airport. No. of Passengers on a daily basis is at a very high rate. Due to this condition
the Heathrow Air terminal influence nature, all around gravely make commotion
contamination, influence the life of the people groups living there. Heathrow Airport has a
two-end fold. One side is the negative side of Heathrow such as the carbon-generating
project, the reason for the bad health of persons whereas the second side is the positive side
of Heathrow such as increasing competitiveness, tourism, and infrastructure. There are
various risks associated with the expansion of the Heathrow airport named as political, social,
and economical. With the expansion of the airport, the Government should be very careful
regarding the people living near Heathrow Airport in respect of their health and environment.

HEATHROW EXPANSION: A RISK EVALUATION 2
Table of Contents
Introduction................................................................................................................................3
London Heathrow Airport..........................................................................................................4
Heathrow’s major expansion..................................................................................................4
Judgment.................................................................................................................................5
Main risks that could affect the Heathrow expansion............................................................6
Views of the Greenpeace In Relation To the Heathrow Expansion.......................................8
Quantitative analysis of risk...................................................................................................9
The most appropriate way of dealing with the Qualitative Risk..........................................12
Conclusion................................................................................................................................13
Bibliography.............................................................................................................................15

HEATHROW EXPANSION: A RISK EVALUATION 3
Introduction
Heathrow Airport, which can likewise be called as London Heathrow, began in 1929 as
Heathrow small runways southeast of the town of Heathrow from which the airplane terminal
got its name. The administration seeks to extend the plane terminal as a typical air terminal
(James, 2017). The plane terminal was started on 25 March 1946 as London Airport and
turned into a critical air terminal for London, United Kingdom. Heathrow is the second
busiest air terminal by worldwide traveler traffic. It is one of six overall air terminals helping
more noteworthy London. Heathrow Airport is situated near Longford in Hillingdon borough,
London. Various risks are involved in Heathrow airport, which has to minimize by taking
various steps. In Heathrow Airport, various risks can be analyzed:
Political Risk
Economic Risks Various Risks Technological Risk
Social Risks
(Source: By Author)

HEATHROW EXPANSION: A RISK EVALUATION 4
London Heathrow Airport
London Heathrow International airport grasp 69.4 million travelers and 1.48 million tons of
cargo in 2011. 86 aircraft and nearly 46% of passengers, which connects 183 international
destinations and chooses Heathrow as a mediator for their long haul flights (www.airport-
technology.com, 2019) The growth of the Heathrow airport is the gem in the crown of the
worldwide (Great Britain, 2013)
Heathrow’s major expansion
• London Heathrow Airport underwent through a major expansion in the year 2008 with the
completion of terminal 5 also include terminal 1, 3 and 4.
• The airplane terminal development likewise incorporates repair of another traffic direction
tower, an underground section for the expansion of each, the Heathrow express and the
Piccadilly line individually.
• Heathrow railroad stations have additionally been expressed to join Guildford, with the
south-west of the airplane terminal.
Various views were generated on the major expansion of Heathrow, which can be classified
into pros and cons: (Sherwood, 2010)
Arguments for the expansion of Heathrow Arguments against the expansion of
Heathrow

HEATHROW EXPANSION: A RISK EVALUATION 5
 If airport capacity will not going to be
increased then the UK will be going
to lose out with competitiveness and
tourism.
 It was argued that a third runway
would be the cheapest way to create
additional as Heathrow already has
goods transport links.
 As all know, Heathrow is a big
employer. Reallocating to another hub
airport would lead to top job losses.
 Heathrow is already has a well-
developed transport infrastructure
which increases the efficiency of
adding an extra runaway.
 If airport capacity will be going to
increased 725,000 people already
living under the flight path will lose
their location which will result in a
lower population density
 The problem of noise and air
pollution is already very high near
Heathrow increasing capacity
would result in more air and noise
pollution.
 Heathrow manages one of the
highest numbers on international
flights with two runways, so no
need of one more runway.
 Environmentalists declare that
enlarging airport capacity would
result in increased CO2 emissions.
There should be uplifting of train
travel to put back small haul flights.
Judgment
If we discuss this problem, no one will be going to propose to build London’s major hub
airport in an extremely populated area because constructing an airport in such an extreme
populated area will going to increase noise pollution and air pollution. However, there was a
topic of worry, that without expanding Heathrow, there will be a hold-up, which can harm
London competitive advantage.

HEATHROW EXPANSION: A RISK EVALUATION 6
IMPACTS INCLUDED IN COST BENEFIT FOR AVIATION APPRAISAL: (Martine
Smit, 2013)
ECONOMICAL
IMPACT
SOCIAL
IMPACT
ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACT
OTHER
Transport economic
efficiency
Accident Noise Impact on public
account
Time savings from delay
reduction
Security Air quality
Wider economic impacts Accessibility GHG emissions
Surface access impact
Costs:
 Investment
 Maintenance
Main risks that could affect the Heathrow expansion
A. Planning risks
i. Environmental problems: The environmental problems related to Heathrow expansion
have been the major reason for previous failures to enlarge the airport. In brief, Heathrow
expansion has a serious adverse result for air quality and noise effect that leads to
environmental problems. Airplanes noise can be a reason for regular or disruptive
annoyance for peoples who reside near airport flight paths and for those issues to lower
levels of disturbance create by low flying smaller aircraft and helicopters. The
publication of the final report of the Airfield Commission followed this, in July 2015.
With the report, the Commission prints an analysis glance at airplane noise effects on
health. It briefly summarised the power of the evidence for aircraft noise result on:

HEATHROW EXPANSION: A RISK EVALUATION 7
a. Heart disease
b. Sleep interference
c. Irritation
d. Mental well-being
e. A Result on child cognition and training (All Party Parliamentary Group,
2017)
ii. Land acquisition risk: Expansion of Heathrow obtain the land necessary for growth by
private agreement or compulsory acquisition but who is to pay for reallocation is the
issue, which left unresolved.
iii. Air quality risk: Transport assessment guidelines provide guidelines on the air quality
of local as well as regional. Heathrow would be the important carbon-intensive origin
(lower load elements, more premium seat spacing, and more transfer passengers) and
these risks striking of greater restriction on growing at other UK airports if the UK is to
exist within its targeted limit for carbonated molecules.
B. Commercial and money risk:
i. Commercial risk: The Airport Commission circumstances stipulate self-control on
“night flights” because they lower the commercial appeal of the new investment, yet
there is probably to be imposed a planning condition, if draft as suggested by the
Airports Commission, there will be a serious problem for the Heathrow. Heathrow has
NOT received the Airports Commission’s recommendation on “night flights” and
forecast flights operating without constraint from 5.30 a.m.
ii. Pricing risk: There are two issues related to the pricing risk: the quantity of charges
(per passenger) and whether it can behold up commercially given airline margins,
Heathrow’s wish to escape from CAA quinquennial inspection. It is not clear whether the

HEATHROW EXPANSION: A RISK EVALUATION 8
responsibility for what the public might feel as highly high charges would result in the
airport, the airlines or the Government. (All Party Parliamentary Group, 2017)
C. Other government risks:
i. The Risk for UK regional connections in relation to a subsidy: There was a clear
future report by the airport's commission that, even with the build of the third runway
there will be a drop to four destinations. To solve this, not good enough result of its
recommendation, it suggests increasing the use of Public Service Obligations, a device
permitted by EU law for ensuring economically pitfall areas which can be work by air
even if not commercially applicable. PSOs usually (though not necessarily) require a
Government subsidy. In spite of this, Heathrow has enrolled a great divide up of regional
support for its growth by hopeful grows regional connections.
ii. Crash risk: In the recent years, there are couples of an incident when a plane goes back
to Heathrow in a hazardous condition – on one point with an engine in flames over
Chelsea. Due to this, it will not be wrong to say Heathrow’s location greatly expands the
risk to life and property of any important incident.
Views of the Greenpeace In Relation To the Heathrow Expansion
UK official executive John Sauven of Greenpeace stated: “Green-lighting another runway at
Heathrow on World Environment Day resembles giving out free coffin on World Health
Day”. (Anon., 2018) By giving the green signal to this project all alone, creates a lot of extra
carbon as whole countries throw and this will result in dangerous air leads to breathing.
Reasons why one more runway at Heathrow is not good according to the Greenpeace:
 Heathrow would fuel addition climate variations, generate over 50% more flights.
According to Scientists reports, this will extreme serious undermine the UK’s capability

HEATHROW EXPANSION: A RISK EVALUATION 9
to meet discharge goal accede in the Paris Agreement. The warning of this discharge
cannot be put off.
 From Heathrow, some flights are for less than 500 km destination, which can be easily
accessible by train. By substituting, these flights by train will help in reducing damaging
climate. Train progress is up to 10 times less harmful to the climate.
 Large companies like Heathrow are placing profit before the environment and cozying
up to government statistic and conflict parties. If we were to handle climate variation, we
have to handle this head-on and stand up to corporate power on Heathrow and more.
(Anon., 2016)
 With the increment in noise pollution resulted in the diseases of the heart. Passengers
who come to airports by runways and the vehicles are the sources of air pollution.
Quantitative analysis of risk
 Technical Risk:
Technical risk is likely for technology collapse to disrupt one’s business such as information
security events or service outages. Technical risk affects the environment of airports by the
way of hacking, loss of personal information. Technology means speed but also convenience
and safety.
Risk Name Probability Impact Review Contingency Action by
Hacking
Risk
(Treasury,
2011)
possible Major High
Half yearly
senior
management
review
For minimizing
the risk of
hacking: tabs
should be kept
on what site
may be
IT
Department

HEATHROW EXPANSION: A RISK EVALUATION 10
compromised,
regularly check
accounts have
been
compromised,
creates strong
passwords and
by use of
password
manager.
(Davis, 2017)
Change In
Technology
Likely moderate High
Quarterly
senior
management
review
Identify the
risk and
analysis the
risk of
hardware and
software failure
and
outsourcing
risk, analyze
outsourcing
risk and
identify
controlled
technology
IT
Department

HEATHROW EXPANSION: A RISK EVALUATION 11
(Blood-Rojas,
2017)
 Economical risk:
It is the certainty that macroeconomic conditions like exchange rates, government regulation.
Economical factors are an important influence on the airline’s industry.
Risk
name
Probability Impact Review Contingency By whom
Increase
in fuel
prices
Likely Major High
Quarterly
senior
management
review
The Company
has to cope up
with the fuel
prices, be
aware of with
the market
condition.
Market
department
Increase
in Labour
demands
Possible moderate Medium
specific
responsibility
and treatment
Timely given
incentives and
pay according
to their hard
work and give
them a good
environment
of work, be
friendly with
Market
department

HEATHROW EXPANSION: A RISK EVALUATION 12
them
 Political risk:
Political risk is accepted by investors, corporations, and governments, which affect political
decision. One can never let go of the political factors, which affect each industry
located in the country. Like it or not, the political factors are in every sector. (Kawadiya,
2019)
Risk name Probability Impact Review Contingency By whom
Change in
government
policies
Rare minor Low
Accept by the
routine
management
The
Government
should talk to
peoples due
which
deadlock will
not be there.
governments
, officers
Political
instability by
the people’s
deadlock
Possible critical High
Quarterly
senior
management
review
Manage
programmes,
rallies,
dialogue
programmes
to satisfy
individuals.
governments
, officers
The most appropriate way of dealing with the Qualitative Risk (A.McGoey-Smith, 2007)

HEATHROW EXPANSION: A RISK EVALUATION 13
(Source: By Author)
Conclusion
In this report, we analyzed the impacts of the expansion of Heathrow airport. It is said that
mega projects always hold a risk of failure. The current situation is unsustainable. Although
the expansion of Heathrow is not a benefit source from the point of view of the environment
Quantitative Risk Management Process
Establish content
Define project
Identify risk
Quantify risk
Compute overoll risk
Commercial risk
Risk response
Monitor risk

HEATHROW EXPANSION: A RISK EVALUATION 14
it was very needy from the point of view of London infrastructure and tourism. Therefore, the
government should take care of the residents near Heathrow Airport.

HEATHROW EXPANSION: A RISK EVALUATION 15
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[Accessed october 2016].
Anon., 2016. 10 big reson a runway at Heathrow is bad for UK. [Online] Available at:
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HEATHROW EXPANSION: A RISK EVALUATION 16
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