This assignment presents a correlation analysis using Pearson's correlation coefficient. The results show correlations between TAS, NT, and energy levels. The analysis examines the strength and significance of these relationships. Students are expected to interpret the coefficients and assess the statistical significance of the findings.
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Topic-RoleofthefuelfactorrespondingforsellingToyotacarsaccordingtothe geographical areas in Australia Executive Summary The current research has been conducted to find the impact of geographical factors and the fuel factors on the car sales of Toyota in Australia. Secondary data for the analysis has been collected from various secondary sources. For the analysis purpose different statistical techniques were used such as descriptive statistics, t test, ANOVA, correlation and multiple regression models. Global climate change and energy consumption has been one of the most researched topics in last few years(SUGANUMA 2015; Vaezipour et al. 2015; Valadkhan & Smyth 2016). This is because the problem of climate change has become more serious all around the world and most of the developed nations are now focusing sustainable development instead of economic growth only. So the case of declining sales of Toyota and the fuel factors affecting it would provide the different dimension for the researchers. It would be interesting to see how the automobile industry will adjust to the changes made by government to comply with the sustainable development initiatives. In this research apart from the fuel factors the geographic factors has also been discussed.
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Contents Executive Summary.................................................................................................................................1 1.1Introduction-................................................................................................................................2 1.2Problem statement......................................................................................................................2 1.3Research aims and objectives......................................................................................................3 1.4Literature Review.........................................................................................................................3 1.5Methodology...............................................................................................................................7 1.5.1Data collection.....................................................................................................................7 1.5.2Data analysis........................................................................................................................7 1.6Results and Discussion.................................................................................................................7 1.6.1Impact of car sales in different regions in Australia on the car sales of Toyota...................8 1.6.2Impact of fuel related factors on the sales of Toyota cars.................................................13 1.6.3Hypothesis testing.............................................................................................................18 1.7Conclusion.................................................................................................................................19 1.7.1Recommendations.............................................................................................................19 1.7.2Limitation of the study.......................................................................................................20
1.1Introduction- Australia is considered as one of the most developed country and the per capita income of the Australia is$45970. This is much higher than the global average of $10,150(The World Bank 2016). However with economic growth the Australian economy is facing fuel crisis and it has spillover effect on the other sectors of the economy.This has also effected the growth of the car manufacturing industry. Among the car manufacturing industries in Australia, Toyota is one of the leading companies. However in the recent time with declining the availability of the fuels in the different region in the Australia the sales of Toyota has also declined(Toyota 2016). However it cannot be said that the decline in sales is only due to the fuel related factors.There may be other factors which affect the sales of Toyota. But the current research will only focus on fuel and geography related factors(Australian Bureau of Statistics 2017; SUGANUMA 2015). 1.2Problem statement Previous research on fuel demand in Australia has shown that different regions in Australia demand different type of fuels. With limited supply of the resource there is mismatch of demand and supply of fuel. One recent study by(Vaezipour et al. 2015; Ustun et al. 2013)shows that in near future there will be shortage of oil in Australia. Author also included that Australia do not have long term contract with oil exporters which may lead to more serious oil crisis in future. Furthermore the transportation sector is the major sector in terms of fuel demand. So, with shortage of fuel in Australia becoming a serious problem and the entire transportation sector is going to be affected. In case of Toyota, the total income is declining. As per the latest reports the net income decreased by 23 % in 2016 as compared to previous year. With already declining income and the increasing fuel crisis, the financial performance of Toyota is expected to decline further in Australia. Toyota can make strategies to increase its income; however the fuel crisis is an external problem which needs efforts from all sections. In terms of demand of the cars also customers are not investing in buying new cars due to fuel related problems(Al-Alawi & Bradley 2013; Ally & Pryor 2016).
With such situation in Australia in terms of car sales and fuel, this research has been conducted to find the impact of fuel and the geography related factors on the sales of Toyota in Australia. 1.3Research aims and objectives Aims and Objectives The current research is aimed to examine the impact of fuel factors and geographical on Toyota sales in Australia.. Apart from this the current research will also highlights geographical fuel challenges. Objectives ï‚·To analyze the role fuel factors affecting cars sale of Toyota in Australia ï‚·To find the impact of geographical factors affecting cars sale of Toyota in Australia 1.4Literature Review Australian Economy and the energy regulations In Australia the major components of the energy is petroleum fuels, however the supply of petroleum fuel in the total energy has declined over the period. In 1974-75 the total supply of energy by petroleum was more than 50 %, which has decreased in 2011-12 to 39 % only. The main reason behind decline in the petroleum fuel is use of the other energy sources especially the natural gas and also the increasing fuel efficiency of the vehicles has also reduced the proportion of petroleum fuel.
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Figure1Energy consumption in Australia in terms of fuel consumption Source :(BREE 2013) In terms of demand of petroleum products the transportation sector is the main sector using fuel. As per data from(Australian Bureau of Statistics 2017)almost three fourth of the demand in the petroleum fuel is by transportation sector.Demand of the petroleum fuel in different sectors is shown in the figure below: Figure2Sectowise consumption of fuel in Australia Source:(BREE 2013)
Mismatch of demand and supply In terms of demand and supply of fuel in Australia (for petroleum products, there is huge gap) the consumption of petroleum fuel has always been higher as compared to the indigenous production in Australia, however after 2003-04 the gap has increased rapidly. In 1973-74 almost 70 % of the oil consumption was supplied by domestic production which increases to almost 98 % in 1983-84. However it has declined to 44 % in 2011-12.Major reasons behind decrease in oil production is due to decline in production field such as the Cooper basin and the Gipplsland (ACIL ALLEN CONSULTING 2014). Car sales in geographical location in Australia Toyota is one of the largest car makers for the Australian market. As per the latest reports on car sales in Australia, the market share of Toyota is around 18 %. However according(NSang\ & Bekhet 2015)Toyota is well developed and is in its transition to sales as well as distribution organization. This will help to become a strong force in Australian market. Sales of cars in different regions in Australia are different. There are many factors which lead to difference in the sales such as the population of the region, income level of people, infrastructure development in the region etc. In addition the demand of the fuel also varies with demand in the cars also. Recent reports from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the total number of car sales in New South Wales was around 675 thousands, which was highest in Australia. Similarly the number of car sales in Queensland was around 653 thousand followed by Victoria where the total number of sales was 562 thousand. Car sales for others region are shown in the table below. In terms of growth South Australia and Queensland shows higher growth in car sales as compared to other regions(SUGANUMA 2015; Australian Bureau of Statistics 2017). .On the other side, the report also shows that around 84,401 heavy rigid trucks were sold in New South Wales during 2011. Similarly the sales of heavy trucks in Victoria was around 777, 339
followed by Queensland where the sales was around 69, 292. This figure was changed in 2015 because the sales of heavy trucks increased(Australian Bureau of Statistics 2017). (AustralianBureauofStatistics2017) NSWVictoriaQueensland 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 675152 562844 653400 206222616021060214502677920784 2011 2015 Series 3 Graph 1: Sales of vehicles geographically (Source: Compiled by author) Car types and their sales in Australia Sales of car in Australia vary in different region on the basis of the availability of the cars also. Recent report shows that the number of two motor vehicles in NSW was only 6 in the year 2015. Similarly the sales of two motor vehicles in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia were 5, 7 and 4 respectively(Australian Bureau of Statistics 2017; Fishman et al. 2014). For Toyota it has developed the plug-in hybrid gained the popularity(Toma & Naruo 2017).Such hybrid cars are considered as the alternative vehicles and the demand for oil will decrease. However, the scope for such models in Australia is limited in the existing market. It
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has been shown that Toyota has been selling hybrid vehicles for more than eight years. This has helped Toyota to establish its dominance in alternative fuel category. After the global trail, Toyota in the recent time has been leading this technology by manufacturing its hybrid Synergy Drive system(Ally & Pryor 2016; Ustun et al. 2013; Vaezipour et al. 2015). So on the basis of the literature review it has been observed that fuel types used in Australia varies with different region and the number of vehicles sold also varies. Most of the researches related to fuel and the geographical factors have not been taken into consideration, so this research has been used to contribute to fill some gaps in the literature(Azadfa et al. 2015; Mills & IMacGill 2014; Toma & Naruo 2017; Vaezipour et al. 2015). 1.5Methodology 1.5.1Data collection This research is entirely based on the secondary research and the required data was collected from various government databases such as Australian Bureau of Statistics and Australian Energy Statistics(BREE 2013; Australian Bureau of Statistics 2017). 1.5.2Data analysis Collected data has been analyzed using different statistical techniques such as t test, ANOVA, correlation and multiple regressions. T test is used to check whether the sample is from same mean or not(Kumar 2014). On the other hand ANOVA is used to check the same but with two or more categories. Furthermore correlation analysis is performed to examine the relationship between two variables. The value of correlation lies between [-1, 1] where -1 shows perfect negative correlation and +1 indicates perfect positive correlation. Finally the regression analysis is used to measure the impact of independent variable on dependent variables(Cierniak & Reimann 2011; Macdonald & Headlam 2010). 1.6Results and Discussion This research is aimed to find the impact of the fuel related factors on care sales of Toyota in Australia. For the analysis purpose secondary data was collected from the database of Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Australian Energy Statistics.For the geographical sales of the
vehicle in different regions the month wise data was collected. Similarly for the fuel related data only the annual data was available, so annual data was used.To analyze the data various statistical techniques were used. Results from the data analysis have been discussed in this chapter. In the first section the results for the geographical related variables has been presented. Similarly in the second section results for the fuel related factors has been explained. 1.6.1Impact of car sales in different regions in Australia on the car sales of Toyota In this research 7 major regions in Australia were taken into consideration namely New South Wales (NSW), Victoria (VIC), Queensland (QLD), Southern Australia (SA), Western Australia (WA), Tasmania (TAS) and Northern Territory (NT). Apart from the geographical factors energy consumption in the transportation sector in Australia has also been including in the study to study the impact of energy demands on sales of the Toyota cars in Australia. Results from the descriptive statistics has been shown in the table below which shows various results for mean, standard deviation and the standard error mean. On the basis of the results it can be said that on an average around 33136 cars are sold in New South Wales whereas in Victoria the total number of 27436 cars are sold. The highest number of cars is sold in the New South Wales as compared to other regions. Similarly the standard deviation results are shown which shows the variation in the data set.If standard deviation is less, then it can be said that most of the values are around its mean values whereas higher standard deviation shows most of the values are away from its mean value. One-Sample Statistics NMeanStd. DeviationStd. Error Mean NSW2033136.85004306.57672962.97983 VIC2027436.80003473.18105776.62689 QLD2019520.75003280.45306733.53160 SA205968.1500825.58772184.60703 WA208226.0500968.07690216.46858 TAS201579.6500271.0883160.61719 NT20921.5500201.4404645.04346
energy20290.025013.680063.05895 Table1Descriptive results from t-test After the descriptive analysis the t test was performed for the geographical variables and the results are shown in the table below. Results from t test shows whether the sample used comes from the same population which has same mean (given as test value in each table)(Teddlie & Yu 2007; Battaligia 2011). For example, in case of NSW t test shows whether the sample is drawn from the population which has mean of 33136. Results shows that the significance value is 0.999 which shows that sample mean and the population mean are not statistically significant. Results for other factors can also be interpreted in similar way. One-Sample Test Test Value = 33136 tdfSig.(2- tailed) Mean Difference 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference LowerUpper NSW.00119.999.85000-2014.68992016.3899 One-Sample Test Test Value = 27436 tdfSig.(2- tailed) Mean Difference 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference LowerUpper VIC.00119.999.80000-1624.69881626.2988 One-Sample Test Test Value = 19520
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tdfSig.(2- tailed) Mean Difference 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference LowerUpper QLD.00119.999.75000-1534.54931536.0493 One-Sample Test Test Value = 5968 tdfSig.(2- tailed) Mean Difference 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference LowerUpper SA.00119.999.15000-386.2369386.5369 One-Sample Test Test Value = 8226 tdfSig.(2- tailed) Mean Difference 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference LowerUpper WA.000191.000.05000-453.0239453.1239 One-Sample Test Test Value = 1579 tdfSig.(2- tailed) Mean Difference 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference LowerUpper TAS.01119.992.65000-126.2232127.5232
One-Sample Test Test Value = 201 tdfSig.(2- tailed) Mean Difference 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference LowerUpper NT15.99719.000720.55000626.2730814.8270 Table2Results from t-test Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 Total car sales Total car sales Table3Toyota car sales in Australia Regression results After the t-test regression analysis has been performed to find the impact of the geographical factors on the sales of Toyota cars. In this case the dependent variable is the sales of Toyota cars whereas the independent variables are the geographic variables and the energy consumption.
However prior to running the regression it is important to check the relationship between the variables and for that purpose the correlation analysis has been conducted and the results are shown in appendix. Model Summary ModelRR SquareAdjusted R SquareStd.Errorofthe Estimate 1.975a.950.914662.80912 a. Predictors: (Constant), energy, QLD, TAS, NT, WA, VIC, SA, NSW Table4Model summary from the regression results Results from the model summary shows that the R Square value is 0.95 which suggests that the independent variables included in the model are able to explain 95% of the variation in the dependent variables whereas remaining 5 % variation is due to some other factors not included in the model. ANOVAa ModelSumof Squares dfMean SquareFSig. 1 Regression92493912.513811561739.06426.318.000b Residual4832475.28711439315.935 Total97326387.80019 a. Dependent Variable: Total car sales b. Predictors: (Constant), energy, QLD, TAS, NT, WA, VIC, SA, NSW Table5Result from ANOVA Similarly the results from the ANOVA table show that the F value of 26.318 is statistically significant as the p value is less than 0.05. In other words the cumulative impact of the independent variables on the dependent variable is significant.
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Coefficientsa ModelUnstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients tSig. BStd. ErrorBeta 1 (Constant)-3413.1844388.665-.778.453 NSW.046.260.088.177.863 VIC.268.187.4111.429.181 QLD.025.311.036.079.939 SA.215.885.078.243.813 WA.639.451.2731.416.185 TAS.7451.191.089.626.544 NT1.0591.452.094.729.481 energy7.63611.891.046.642.534 a. Dependent Variable: Total car sales Table6Results for regression coefficients Results for the regression coefficients are shown in the table above and theresults shows that the cars sales in NSW has positive impact on the sales of Toyota cars as the coefficient of NSW is positive. However the impact is not statistically significant as the p value is more than 0.05. In fact none of the regression coefficients shows statistically significant impact. The coefficient of NSW can be interpreted as, with one unit increase in the sales of car in NSW Toyota sales increase by 0.046 units. In terms of magnitude NT has the highest coefficient. For one unit increase in car sales in NT the sales of Toyota increase by more than one unit. 1.6.2Impact of fuel related factors on the sales of Toyota cars In the previous section the impact of geography related factors has been discussed. This section will examine the impact of the fuel related factor on sales of Toyota cars in Australia. The descriptive statistics related to the fuel factors are shown in the table below. Results show that on an average total 59296 cars are sold in Australia. However the standard deviation is very high which indicates that the values are far from its mean value. The highest number of car sold in Australia are unleaded petrol cars as the mean for unleaded is highest among all the fuel types.
Descriptive Statistics NMinimumMaximumMeanStd. Deviation Leaded8204112501459296.7546654.778 Unleaded89542640551401672383.291538258.453 Diesel834283859283408914.50358034.365 Other8104521566157875.7074938.307 Table7: Descriptive statistics on the basis of fuel type T test results One-Sample Test Test Value = 59296 tdfSig.(2- tailed) Mean Difference 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference LowerUpper Leaded.00071.000.750-39003.6239005.12 One-Sample Test Test Value = 1672383 tdfSig.(2- tailed) Mean Difference 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference LowerUpper Unleaded.00071.000.291-1286015.961286016.54 One-Sample Test Test Value = 408914
tdfSig.(2- tailed) Mean Difference 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference LowerUpper Diesel.00071.000.499-299323.72299324.72 One-Sample Test Test Value = 57875 tdfSig.(2- tailed) Mean Difference 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference LowerUpper Other.00071.000.696-62649.3062650.69 Table8Results from t test As discussed in the previous section also the t test is used to test whether the sample is drawn from the population which has some particular mean (test value). In this case the p value for all the variables is more than 0.05 which shows that the null hypothesisof t test cannot be rejected. So it can be concluded that the sample mean and the population mean are not statistically different. Correlation analysis Correlations LeadedUnleadedDieselOtherToyota Leaded Pearson Correlation 1.948**.942**.869**-.377 Sig. (2-tailed).000.000.005.357 N88888 UnleadedPearson Correlation .948**1.958**.843**-.452
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Sig. (2-tailed).000.000.009.261 N88888 Diesel Pearson Correlation .942**.958**1.745*-.378 Sig. (2-tailed).000.000.034.356 N88888 Other Pearson Correlation .869**.843**.745*1-.326 Sig. (2-tailed).005.009.034.431 N88888 Toyota Pearson Correlation -.377-.452-.378-.3261 Sig. (2-tailed).357.261.356.431 N88888 **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). *. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). Table9Correlation results After the t- test to find the impact of the fuel factors on the car sales of Toyota multiple regression analysis was conducted. In this case also the dependent variable is the Toyota car sales. Different types of fuel are the independent variables. Results from the regression analysis are discussed below: Model Summary ModelRR SquareAdjusted R SquareStd.Errorofthe Estimate 1.530a.281-.6773145.04468 a. Predictors: (Constant), Other, Diesel, Leaded, Unleaded Table10Results from model summary
Results from model summary show the independent variables, included in the regression analysis are able to explain 28 % variation in the dependent variable. This is because the value of R squared in this case is 0.28. Similarly the negative adjusted R squared value indicates that only adding more independent variable will not be able to improve the model. The low value of R squared is because there are many other factors which affect the car sales of Toyota apart from the fuel factors. ANOVAa ModelSum of SquaresdfMean SquareFSig. 1 Regression11608309.73642902077.434.293.866b Residual29673918.13939891306.046 Total41282227.8757 a. Dependent Variable: Toyota b. Predictors: (Constant), Other, Diesel, Leaded, Unleaded Table11Results from ANOVA ANOVA results show that the F statistics is very low (0.293) and it is not statistically significant . This indicates that the cumulative impact of the independent variable on the dependent variable is not statistically significant. Coefficientsa ModelUnstandardized CoefficientsStandardized Coefficients tSig. BStd. ErrorBeta 1(Constant)18174.7542129.3748.535.003 Leaded-.009.113-.178-.082.940 Unleaded-.003.004-1.726-.747.509 Diesel.007.0161.096.455.680
Other.015.042.467.358.744 a. Dependent Variable: Toyota Table12Results for regression coefficients Similarly results from regression coefficient shows that the leaded and unleaded have negative impact on the sales of Toyota cars in Australia whereas fuel type such as diesel and others have positive impact on the dependent variable. This shows that increase in petrol car sales negatively affect the Toyota, on the other hand increase in diesel and other fuel type the sales of Toyota also increase. However none of the regression coefficients are statistically significant. 1.6.3Hypothesis testing Hypothesis 1: Null hypothesis: The geographic factors have significant impact on the car sale of Toyota in Australia. Alternative hypothesis: The geographic factors do not have significant impact on the car sale of Toyota in Australia. As the results from the regression analysis do not show statistically significant results for any regions the null hypothesis cannot be rejected. So the null hypothesis cannot be rejected. However all the regression coefficients of geographic factors are positive? Hypothesis 2: Null hypothesis:The fuel factors do not have significant impact on the car sales of Toyota in Australia. Alternative hypothesis::The fuel factors have significant impact on the car sales of Toyota in Australia. In this case also the regression results do not show statistically significant results for any regression coefficients, so the null hypothesis cannot be rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis.
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1.7Conclusion This research was aimed to find the impact of geographical factors and the fuel factors on the car sales of Toyota in Australia. Data for the analysis has been collected from various secondary sources. For the analysis purpose different statistical techniques were used such as descriptive statistics, t test, ANOVA, correlation and multiple regression models. Results from the descriptive analysis show that the highest numbers of cars are sold in New South Wales region followed by Victoria. Results from t test show that, for most of the geographical factors no statistical difference between the sample mean and population mean. So it can be concluded that the sample were obtained from the same population. Furthermore results from ANOVA shows that cumulative impact of geographical factors on Toyota car sales is statistically significant. However in terms of individual affect none of the regression coefficients were statistically significant even though the magnitude was positive. Secondly when the impact of the fuel factors on sales of Toyota car was assessed results shows that most numbers of cars sold in Australia are unleaded petrol cars followed by leaded petrol cars. The regression results were not significant. So, on the basis of the results it can be concluded that the geographical factors are more important as compared to full factors. 1.7.1Recommendations As the results show the magnitude of Northern territory is highest among all geographic region Toyota should focus on increasing its sales in this region as compared to other regions. It can make new strategies to promote its cars in NT region. This may help Toyota to improve its car sales, hence overall financial performance. Secondly the number of unleaded petrol cars is highest, so Toyota should target this segment of cars as compared to cars with other fuel types. This can also help Toyota to revive its decreasing sales in Australia. 1.7.2Limitation of the study In this research only the geography and fuel related factors have been included, however there are many other factors which affect the sales of Toyota cars in Australia. Apart from that the
time period taken into consideration is limited and only the quantitative analysis has been performed. Qualitative analysis can also be conducted for further research. Apart from that there are limitations to time and cost involved in the research.
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