Risk Analysis in Modernization and Replacement of WA Trains
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This paper discusses the possible risks assessed in the modernization and replacement of the WA trains that will serve the whole country. It covers the definition of risks, risk analysis process, identified risks, identification of hazards, risk mitigation, environmental risk, and recommendations for risk management.
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Running Head: RISK ANALYSIS1 Risk Analysis Students Name Institutional affiliation
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RISK ANALYSIS2 Contents RISK ANALYSIS...........................................................................................................................3 Introduction......................................................................................................................................3 Risks................................................................................................................................................4 Risk analysis................................................................................................................................4 Identified risks.........................................................................................................................6 Identification of hazards..........................................................................................................6 Risk mitigation.........................................................................................................................7 Environmental risk.......................................................................................................................7 Mitigation................................................................................................................................7 Recommendations............................................................................................................................8 Use of elaborate road signs and public sensitization...................................................................8 Outline regulations that guide environmental pollution..............................................................8 Conclusion.......................................................................................................................................8
RISK ANALYSIS3 Introduction Railway transport is always viewed as a mechanism that can spur economic and social growth in a country. Establishing a new railway line or improving the existing one is always a step towards achieving this growth. Replacement of the WA trains is a step towards achieving the goal. It is important given the role railway transport plays in the economic development in Australia. The government has introduced numerous legislations that will enable a more efficient railway network is established in the country. However, there are potential risks that can be faced due to the current technological developments, (Infrastructure.gov.au, 2019. This paper will discuss the possible risks assessed in the modernization and replacement of the WA trains that will serve the whole country. Risks Risks are an expansive subject that many scholars have developed interests in its definition based on various subjects. According to Dindar, Kaewunruen, and An, (2019), a risk is an injury or loss that is as a result of exposure to hazardous conditions. Quantitatively, risk can be defined in relation to the danger that can potentially lead to adverse results. Risk analysis Risk analysis involves the general estimation of the number of times an accidental event can occur and the probable outcome. The estimation can be achieved based on the previous data about accidents that occurred, the expert’s opinion or from the fault tree analysis. Analysis of the
RISK ANALYSIS4 consequences is important at it will expose the apparent hazards as well as those that can only be realized after the accident has happened, (Harris, Riley, Sainsbury, Kent, and Baum, 2018). Identification and description of a chain of events that lead to the occurrence of an accident must be conducted. The first advantage is a sequence of events is portrayed when consequences can be discretely analyzed. Risk analysis would be more beneficial if all categories of outcomes are included, railway personnel, environmental damage, the passengers, economic losses, company reputation as well as an operational derailment, (Castillo, Calviño, Grande, Sánchez‐ Cambronero, Gallego, Rivas, and Menéndez, 2016). The losses incurred can be estimated in monetary terms, a number of human lives lost. When historical data of past events is not available, an ordinal hazard frequency scale can be used to determine the probability of risk occurrence. The table below shows an estimate of hazard frequency and a possible outcome ScoreFrequency classSeverity class 1Very unlikelyMinor 2RemoteMajor 3OccasionalCritical 4ProbableCatastrophic
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RISK ANALYSIS5 5Frequentcatastrophic When evaluating the risks, classification and decisions are arrived at given the tolerability of the present risk. If risks are found to be at intolerable levels, drastic precaution is taken so as to bring it back to the tolerable levels. At this level, mitigation is applied given that cost is relatively lower. Identified risks Level crossing (LC) Level crossing refers to an intersection between a railway line and a road. This allows vehicles to pass through the rail. Accidents can occur here involving the incoming train and other users, (vehicles, pedestrians). The point where an accident can occur thus should be marked as a danger zone, (Bloomfield, Bendele, Bishop, Stroud, and Tonks, 2016). Different LCs has different accidents frequency due to the different speed the trains are at them as well as the frequency in which trains pass on them, (Harris et al, 2019). Thus these places possess numerous hazards that can lead to rail users exposed to risks. Identification of hazards In order to properly identify the hazards posed, there was consideration of different parameters that are involved in the LC. Classification of operations was also considered given the scope that the new trains will cover putting into consideration environmental factors that may
RISK ANALYSIS6 have a greater influence on the hazards, (Yang, 2018). Example of this is the hazards that are related to the visibility of LC users. The table below summarizes the hazards found. Hazards Disregard of signals by the drivers Indiscipline from the members of the public Improper5 closure of gates Poor roads making it difficult for vehicles crossing the LC Risk mitigation Since the new trains will be venturing into a new area of operations, there will be no previous data to gauge the frequency and the consequences expected. Classifications can be used as shown in table 1. From the classification, human-based and technical problems are intolerable. To mitigate this, a step should be taken to mitigate the risks. Environmental risk Usage of machinery in the construction process emits more dangerous effluents to the environment, (Environment.gov.au. 2019). People living in areas where the railway line passes get displaced; those living along the line are exposed to greater danger in terms of noise pollution as well as chemicals emitted from the machines used.
RISK ANALYSIS7 Mitigation Eliminating environmental pollution cannot be done entirely. In order to minimize the amount of pollution, environmental laws should be complied with, (Zou & Yang, 2015). The treatment plant can be set up where the affluent can be treated before being released to the environment. Recommendations Use of elaborate road signs and public sensitization The government and all stakeholders should be sensitized on the operations of LCs. They are required to take note of any signal of hazard while at these places. Plans that will be set for risk management should have a clear mitigation process set out in case there is occurrence of risk. Outline regulations that guide environmental pollution Quality life of citizens and other living organism depend on cleanliness of the environment they live on. In order to ensure that the environment remains clean so as to sustain life, the NSW government should make sure that minimal levels of pollution are released to the environment. It should ensure that affluent treating sites are set up. This will lead to the release of less harmful materials to the environment. Conclusion This paper has integrated railway risk management to the Australian context. Clearly, it has illustrated the risk analysis process that includes the identification of hazards and classifications of these hazards by the degree of consequences of the risks they pose. The classification was
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RISK ANALYSIS8 based on the fault tree analysis. When carrying out the project, mitigation processes for the risks should be put in place. Finally, there is emphasis to have historical risk database where future risk analysis will be based.
RISK ANALYSIS9 References Bloomfield, R., Bendele, M., Bishop, P., Stroud, R. and Tonks, S., (2016), June. The risk assessment of ERTMS-based railway systems from a cyber security perspective: Methodology and lessons learned. In International Conference on Reliability, Safety, and Security of Railway Systems (pp. 3-19). Springer, Cham. Castillo*, E., Calviño, A., Grande, Z., Sánchez‐Cambronero, S., Gallego, I., Rivas, A. and Menéndez, J.M., (2016). A Markovian–Bayesian network for risk analysis of high speed and conventional railway lines integrating human errors. Computer‐Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 31(3), pp.193-218. Dindar, S., Kaewunruen, S. and An, M., (2018). Identification of appropriate risk analysis techniques for railway turnout systems. Journal of Risk Research, 21(8), pp.974-995. Environment.gov.au. (2019). Retrieved from https://www.environment.gov.au/resource/local- government-and-australian-environment-law Harris, P., Riley, E., Sainsbury, P., Kent, J. and Baum, F., (2018). Including health in environmental impact assessments of three mega transport projects in Sydney, Australia: A critical, institutional, analysis. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 68, pp.109- 116. Love, P.E., Smith, J., Simpson, I., Regan, M. and Olatunji, O.,( 2015). Understanding the landscape of overruns in transport infrastructure projects. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 42(3), pp.490-509.
RISK ANALYSIS10 Yang, S., (2018). Research on the risks and opportunities of international railway projects based on FIDIC-EPC contract. Zou, P.X. and Yang, R.J., (2015). PPP applications in Australian infrastructure development. In Public Private Partnerships (pp. 39-64). Routledge.