Risk Assessment : Uncertainty in Management & Its treatment

The assignment is divided into two parts, with Part A focusing on understanding and defining terms and concepts related to risk management. Risk management involves identifying potential risks and hazards, and then implementing strategies to eliminate or control them. Uncertainty is a common factor in risk management, which can stem from incomplete data or gaps in scientific knowledge needed to make accurate predictions. Managing uncertainty involves recognizing that decisions are often made with incomplete information, and weighing the potential benefits against the risks. The product development process involves formally addressing uncertainty and gathering information to make informed decisions. Assessing risk often involves making assumptions to fill gaps in data, but there may be multiple alternative assumptions with no clear basis for choosing between them.

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Here we have to do the following two parts in this assignment:
So here we shall start with the first part i.e. Part-A:
Here before going into the details and literature reviews we have to define and
understand few terms and concepts here:
It is a term used to portray the general interaction or strategy where you: Identify perils
and hazard factors that can possibly cause [Anderson, E. L. 1983] hurt (danger ID). Decide
proper approaches to wipe out the danger, or control the danger when the peril can't be
dispensed with (Controlling hazard).
So after this main defining the term and concept we shall now here understand and
explain that what is the uncertainty in the RISK Management.
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This can be available in the portrayal of the openness situation, the boundary gauges,
and model expectations. At long last, model vulnerability [Ames, B. N. 1983.] happens
because of an absence of data or holes in logical hypothesis needed to make precise
expectations.
So after defining the under discussion aforementioned terms we shall explain the both
combine so that we can move towards a literature reviews about this as follows:
We are somewhat acceptable at being amazed when setting assumptions for what's to
come. This is the substance of hazard. The contrast between what we hope to happen
or might want to happen, and what happens.
The one of the definition in global norms of hazard incorporate the expression "impact of
vulnerability". How about we eliminate a portion of the vulnerability around the term
vulnerability with regards to chance and hazard the executives.
Inside the meaning of Risk/hazard, a note develops the term vulnerability. In rundown it
proposes when confronted with absent or blemished data about an occasion, likelihood,
or result, we are unsure.
Essentially, when uncertain, there is hazard [M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell-, December, 1996} of
the outcomes being unique in relation to our assumptions.
Equivalent words for vulnerability include: capricious, inconsistency, danger, question,
hesitation, uncertainty, qualm, dread, uncertainty, and suspiciousness.
With regards to chance, we regularly can inspect the vulnerability to check the extent
and likely real results. The level of hazard somewhat is quantifiable. A critical step here
is evaluating the effect of data we don't realize we don't have the foggiest idea.
Remembering you don't have adequate data to consistently make the privilege or best
or ideal choice is the initial phase in managing uncertainly.
From the get-go in my profession as an assembling [Treje Aven, February, 2014] engineer, I
introduced some test results that demonstrated an approach to improve measure yield.
The outcomes I introduced depended on a tiny dataset and I had a lot of vulnerability
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past the wide certainty limits of the computations. I sureness needed to run more
examinations, to accumulate and comprehend the effect of the change on the
interaction better than with simply a fast analysis.
We won't ever have amazing information and on occasion we need to settle on the
choice dependent on sparse information. The idea is sound and the advantage worth
the danger. So he consented to allow me to screen the effect as we carried out the
adjustment in the production line.
Vulnerability exists. When settling on choices it is an equilibrium of the measure of
vulnerability, the science, the business, and the scope of likely results.
The item improvement measure, think stage entryway surveys, is a way to officially
address vulnerability.
The target of each condition of work is to diminish vulnerability, accumulate data, to
educate the choice concerning pushing the venture ahead or not.
During the idea stage the group investigates the specialized achievability of the thought
(can we really cause this activity that?), alongside [Epstein, S. S., and J. B. Swartz. 1984] the
assessment of the potential market that may buy the new gadget (does anybody require
this to tackle a difficult they have?).
Each progression along the advancement interaction incorporates the investigation,
assessment, and investigation of what isn't known to educate choices concerning
ultimately offering the item to the market.
Enumerating how you as an association will address vulnerability (hazard) for significant
choices gives a system to lessen vulnerability and limit choice danger.
A decent advance in a proper danger the executives program is including a system to
ask 'are we considering all that we ought to?' A check step on the interaction to
comprehend the degree and size of hazard because of uncertainty.
Since we have explained how to deal formally with the uncertainty now we have to
explain in lieu of more and other literature reviews that how to deal with this as well:
Science mentions to us what we can know, however what we can know is nearly
nothing, and on the off chance that we fail to remember the amount we can't realize we
become uncaring toward numerous things critical. Philosophy, then again, initiates a
one sided conviction that we have information where truth be told we have
obliviousness, and by doing so creates a sort of insolent rudeness towards the universe.
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Vulnerability, within the sight of striking expectations and fears, is difficult, yet should be
suffered in the event that we wish to live without the help of consoling fantasies.
Bertrand Russell, A History of Western Philosophy, 1945
Until the most recent 15 years or something like that, endeavors to improve wellbeing
and security were coordinated principally at dangers of generally certain greatness. The
social damage from mishaps and infections, for example, polio was all around simple to
gauge. Dangers were overseen by gaining from botches; this is as yet a fundamental
piece of good danger the executives. However, experimentation the board is
inappropriate for some dangers of current worry—for instance, hazards with long
inactivity periods or cataclysmic potential. We currently look for better approaches to
oversee hazards tentatively, techniques that keep away from the human expenses of an
experimentation approach.
Where experience isn't a guide, hazard the board is more troublesome. We have been
battling with a few such cases for as far back as decade: atomic force, synthetic cancer-
causing agents, and all the more as of late, biotechnologies. One way to deal with
vulnerability about such dangers has been to attempt to lessen it through research.
Generous assets have been consumed to comprehend these dangers, and hazard the
executives has been improved by such investigations. In spite of this exertion,
nonetheless, and especially when direct human proof isn't free, enormous vulnerabilities
about hazard remain. Examination may [S. Read, and B. Combs. 1978] in the long run settle
numerous inquiries that currently inconvenience us, and now and again delaying a
choice to anticipate research results may stay away from vulnerability. Be that as it may,
numerous dangers are probably going to stay dubious uncertainly.
Assessing the greatness of dangers that can't be estimated straightforwardly regularly
requires the utilization of suspicions that can't be tried exactly. Not exclusively are such
dangers dubious, however frequently the vulnerability can't be described by a likelihood
circulation. Albeit such conveyances are [Gibbons, J. H. 1983.] helpful for depicting a few
vulnerabilities, they are frequently not achievable in hazard evaluation. Some of the time
there is no sensible strategy even to appoint loads to the credibility of elective
presumptions. Techniques have been created to inspire emotional portrayals of
vulnerability; these, nonetheless, bring up the issue of whose evaluations to
acknowledge.
Acknowledgment of these vulnerabilities has now and again prompted the view that
hazard evaluation is a questionable venture, too dubious to even consider being
depended upon for hazard the board choices. Be that as it may, low-level dangers are
innately questionable paying little mind to the methodology taken to their examination.
This vulnerability is essentially more evident under certain ways to deal with social
danger the executives than others. Given the inconvenience that vulnerability causes, it
could be enticing to exaggerate what hazard appraisal can advise us. The cutoff points
to science are loose, just like the differentiations between that which is known and that
which can sensibly be expected. Therefore, an in fact exact portrayal of vulnerabilities is
currently viewed as a fundamental piece of hazard appraisal.
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Hazard assessors use presumptions to connect holes in information. Regularly there
are a few elective suppositions, each logically conceivable and with no sensible reason
for picking among them. For instance, an assessor should choose which portion
reaction model to use in extrapolating from high-to low-portion hazard. In such
circumstances, late practice underwrites traditionalism in hazard assessment as
defensive of general wellbeing. The contention introduced in this paper is that
traditionalism, characterized as the orderly determination of suppositions prompting
evaluations of high danger, isn't defensive of human wellbeing by and large.
One approach to manage vulnerability is to arrange the littlest dangers (regularly the
most unsure dangers) as too trivial hazards. Too trivial chances are those decided to be
too little to even consider being of social concern, or too little to even think about
defending the utilization of hazard the board assets for [Davis, J. P. 1981. ] control (see
Weinberg, in this volume). Appropriately applied, a de minimis hazard idea can help set
needs for getting administrative thoughtfulness regarding hazard a socially
advantageous way. Albeit the de minimis approach disregards hazards beneath some
low breaking point, it also is in the longstanding practice of hazard the board strategies
that are planned to decide in favor security in issue of vulnerability.
So, since we have discussed the risk management and then through the different
literature reviews abut that how the uncertainty treatment could have been there while
assessing the Risk. Though we have given the examples as well about that how we
should deal and treat the uncertainty but we can say there is always the uncertain
things which could be happen while assessing the hazards in every field and industry.
So, we have to make decisions to move our organizations forward. These decisions rely
on facts, experimental results, samples, projections, and other bits of imperfect
information. We do not have the time, not is it possible to have perfect information.
Therefore, setting up mechanisms and processes to frame the discussion concerning
what is known and unknown permits both the quantification of risk along with the
minimization or uncertainty.
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Here in his task we have to organize preliminary risk assessment on a situation or a
scenario which is given in the aforementioned figure clearly; So, before starting with this
scenario we should and have to know about the preliminary risk assessment definitions
and details and what is all about
It is a technique to focus on which FMEAs will be done as a feature of another
undertaking. It surveys the danger related with subsystems or parts (when performing
Design FMEAs) or interaction steps (when performing Process FMEAs) against
organization characterized hazard rules.
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While doing FMEAs on all subsystems and segments, which can be pricey and tedious,
there should be an approach to focus on potential FMEA projects, to help recognize
which FMEAs to do. One approach to do this prioritization is called Preliminary Risk
Assessment.
So after defining the main concepts and terms we have to go towards our
scenario and will explain the details as follows:
Identification and description of the risk scenario using the Preliminary Risk
Assessment Method:
The above mentioned figure is showing that how we have to initiate for the required
task; like in the figure we have mentioned that how [Rothschild, N. 1978] the PRA
(Preliminary assessment) system have to develop and then we have to put our scenario
to deal with:
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For the said scenario we have to develop the following for PRA:
 Creation of a group: A team which will be liable to perform the duties and tasks
at facilities of Gasoline tanks.
 Identify the scope of work: At this here we have to figure out the exact range
and capacity of the work over the assigned places.
 Internal frame of work using Accurate method: Here we shall use the frame
of work internally that we can break that into the following steps:
 Gathering (Data receiving)
 Processing (Analyzing data)
 Diffuse (Validating the data)
 Assessing the RISK/Danger: Here in at this stage we have to figure out if there
is any hazard at the Gasoline Tanks like any overflow because of improper
system flow etc.
 Explaining the assessment mechanism: At the gasoline tanks as per given
scenario we have to brief about the mechanism that how we shall assess the
dangers like levels as;
 Minimal
 Noteworthy
 Serious-type
 Critical-kind of
 Regulation of decision mechanism: Afterwards the above at this scenario
(Gasoline Tanks) as per the level of risk we have to be prepare for the decision
according to the situation that how to resolve and control. Like we can do this at
the Gasoline storage capacity to give there a color lighting as and once that go
towards risk factor there can be a highlighted light according to the danger level.
We can manage the counter action to mitigate as:
 Non
 Low
 Medium
 High
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Affinity & to execute of scenario: Here in this we have to make an excel sheet (format
given appendix-1) we have to list down the list as we mentioned above that we have to
list down the incident scenario at which could be happen at Gasoline Tanks because of
irregular flow and over flow. In that sheet we also have to mention what could be the
penalties, how to control and what level of danger it is.
PRA for this scenario at Gasoline Tanks should be accurately measures like as we have
defined above the levels and we should take a rapid action when the danger come to at-
least level -2 and the action should be comprehensive.
So conclusively in this chunk of this report about the Identification and description of the
risk scenario using the Preliminary Risk
The primer danger examination technique empowered dangers to be evaluated and
hazard moderation measures to be taken. This can be advantageous for the
organization where gas tanks set, however it requires preparing and time. It likewise fills
in as a specialized instrument for all associated with the interaction. Because of this
strategy, the criticality of dangers which could influence the framework has been
decreased. The foundation of leftover danger relief pointers will empower the
effectiveness of the activity intend to be assessed, accordingly guaranteeing measure
security. Polished skill, group association and collaboration guarantee a favorable to
dynamic way to deal with hazard the executives.
The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) expects bosses to execute
fire security and counteraction programs in the work environment. The guidelines that
apply to fire security and counteraction [Dossier Solidarité Santé 2010] can be discovered
basically in Subpart F of the development principles, however the necessity for a fire
avoidance program is first set out in Subpart C. The accompanying segments of the
development principles contain necessities for fire security that are of importance to
material project workers:
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So as per OSHA there are TEN measures for Fire Prevention and Protection:
 Stipulate sufficient ways for escaping,
 Mark in clear-direction towards the exits.
 Set-up a smoking revealing methods.
 Preserve smoking conquest methods
 Arrange a fire-drills on regular basis.
 Usage smoke-retardant constituents inside. ...
 Accessibility of all the major places towards fight-fighters’ equipment.
 All the plan-map of the Gasoline Tanks & premises handy.
 Arrange/be in contact with fire-brigade to assists all the times
 Act-in with National Building coding system
So as per the OSHA the aforementioned measures for fire-prevention & protection for
the Gasoline tanks are defined and explained. Once we shall obey the aforementioned
as per OSHA we can minimize the dangers at the premises.
So as per the aforementioned discussions according to the given scenario and
mentioned by OSHA as well we can have and give the following suggestions:
 Proper training to the workers
 The levels of danger should be explained to all the employees.
 Prohibition should be there for any kind of smoking activities near critical areas
and near gasoline tanks.
 Storage capacity should be maintained strictly because nothing can happen
because of over flow.
 Protective equipment should be updated as per given and defined standards.
 Practices that how to protect the area and themselves (employees) if and once
any mishap happened.
 Always keep in touch to the authority from where you can get an instant help in
case of big disaster.
 Make strict policies in lieu of the preventions and make sure that all the
employees should and have to obey those so that all should be in streamline.
 Guidelines regarding prevention should be displayed everywhere inside the
premises, especially at the critical areas like in our scenario the Gasoline tanks
areas.
 Keep all the workers updated and informed regarding security measure.
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Here in this part of the said report (PART-B) we have initially defined and explained the
major concepts which are PRA and the we have explained and explore as per the given
scenario of i.e. Gasoline tanks and then we elaborate that how we can imply on the
given scenario the concepts on that. And on the few of the assumption with the help of
the examples we have explained that how the risk factors can be identified and how we
can prevent from those as well.
Then as per requirements we have explored about the fire protections & prevention
measure as per OSHA and explained what those defined standards says and how we
should comply with those to make more protective and prevent all the critical areas.
Afterwards as per our studies and abstract from the studies/researches we mentioned
our own suggestion to make it more authentic and safe.
References:
[1] Anderson, E. L. 1983. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Carcinogen Assessment Group.
Quantitative approaches in use to assess cancer risk. Risk Analysis
[2] Ames, B. N. 1983. b. Letter. Science 224:668–670,757–760.
[3] M.ElisabethPaté-Cornell-December, 1996- Uncertainties in risk analysis: Six levels of treatment
[4] Treje Aven, February, 2014: Uncertainties in risk analysis: Six levels of treatment
[5] Epstein, S. S., and J. B. Swartz. 1984. Letter. Science 224:660–666
[6] Fischhoff, B., P. Slovic, S. Lichtenstein, S. Read, and B. Combs. 1978. How safe is safe enough?
[7] Davis, J. P. 1981. The Feasibility of Establishing a "De Minimis" Level of Radiation Dose
[8] Gibbons, J. H. 1983. In S. Panem, editor. , ed., Public Policy, Science and Environmental Risk
[9] Rothschild, N. 1978. Antidote to panic. Nature 276:555.
[10] Dossier Solidarité Santé 2010
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Appendix
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