Risk Modeling Report

This report presents a risk modeling analysis focusing on demolition costs. It utilizes simulation data to determine the probability distribution of total demolition costs, revealing a significant range between minimum and maximum values. The analysis highlights a substantial standard deviation,...Read More

RISK MODELING

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Question 1....................................................................................................................................................................................................3
Optimum combinations of mitigation that must be purchased................................................................................................................3
Question 2..................................................................................................................................................................................................21
Probability distribution of total cost of demolition................................................................................................................................23
REFERENCES..........................................................................................................................................................................................24
Table 1Model of expenses.........................................................................................................................................................................19
Table 2Modeling for incident free and uncertain risk...............................................................................................................................21

Question 1
5.0% 5.0%
10.00010.000
8.89.09.29.49.69.810.010
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Cost of Contingencies / Change in Risk Class
Cost of Contingencies / Change in Risk Class
Minimum 10.0000
Maximum 10.0000
Mean 10.0000
Std Dev 0.0000
Values 10000@RISK Trial VersionFor Evaluation Purposes Only
Simulation Summary Information
Workbook Name Copy of SignalBoxRiskRegisterSolutionV29FINAL1485580347(January
31)-1.xlsx, Copy of SignalBoxRiskRegister1483777554(January 31) (1)
(1).xlsx
Number of
Simulations
1
Number of Iterations 10000
Number of Inputs 0
Number of Outputs 35
Sampling Type Latin Hypercube
Simulation Start Time 1/31/2017 16:44
Simulation Duration 00:01:09
Random # Generator RAN3I
Random
Seed
1838075264

Summary Statistics for Cost of Contingencies / Change in Risk Class
Statistics Percentile
Minimum 10 5% 10
Maximum 10 10% 10
Mean 10 15% 10
Std Dev 0 20% 10
Variance 0 25% 10
Skewness 1.01E+300 30% 10
Kurtosis 1.01E+300 35% 10
Median 10 40% 10
Mode 10 45% 10
Left X 10 50% 10
Left P 5% 55% 10
Right X 10 60% 10
Right P 95% 65% 10
Diff X 0 70% 10
Diff P 90% 75% 10
#Errors 0 80% 10
Filter Min Off 85% 10
Filter
Max
Off 90% 10
#Filtered 0 95% 10
Name
Class changes
made / Cost
Cost of
Contingencies
/ Change in
Risk Class
Cost of
Contingencies
/ Change in
Risk Class
Cost of
Contingencies
/ Change in
Risk Class
Cost of
Contingencies
/ Change in
Risk Class
Cost of
Contingencies
/ Change in
Risk Class
Cost of
Contingencies
/ Change in
Risk Class
Cost of
Contingencies
/ Change in
Risk Class
Description Output Output Output Output Output Output Output Output
Iteration /
Cell $H$652 $T$16 $T$39 $T$61 $T$82 $T$104 $T$125 $T$147
1 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
2 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10

3 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
4 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
5 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
6 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
7 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
8 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
9 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
10 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
11 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
12 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
13 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
14 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
15 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
16 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
17 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
18 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
19 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
20 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
21 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
22 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
23 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
24 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
25 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
26 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
27 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
28 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
29 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
30 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
31 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
32 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
33 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10

34 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
35 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
36 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
37 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
38 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
39 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
40 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
41 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
42 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
43 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
44 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
45 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
46 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
47 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
48 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
49 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
50 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
51 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
52 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
53 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
54 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
55 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
56 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
57 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
58 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
59 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
60 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
61 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
62 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
63 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
64 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10

65 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
66 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
67 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
68 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
69 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
70 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
71 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
72 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
73 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
$T$16
8
$T$19
0
$T$21
1
$T$23
3
$T$25
5
$T$27
6
$T$29
8
$T$31
9
$T$34
1
$T$36
3
$T$38
5
$T$40
7
$T$42
9
$T$45
2
$T$47
4
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10

9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10

9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10

9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
Cost of Contingencies /
Change in Risk Class
Cost of Contingencies /
Change in Risk Class
Cost of Contingencies /
Change in Risk Class
Cost of Contingencies /
Change in Risk Class
Cost of Contingencies /
Change in Risk Class
Cost of Con
Change in R
Output Output Output Output Output Output
$T$496 $T$518 $T$540 $T$563 $T$585 $T$607
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8

10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8

10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
Interpretation
Maximum risk category for mitigation is 11. There are many areas where mitigation expenses are almost reduced to zero.
Moreover, expenditures are made within the limit. However, risk in many areas is very high and due to this reason simulation model
generate high risk category. It can be said that further steps need to be taken to reduce risk.

Question 2
Modeling for incident free and uncertain risk
Sum of total expected
value Total Cost Demolition Number
Max 1,06,495.44 209,07,000.00
Min 93,302.40 79,51,000.00
Mean 99,619.64 132,81,470.59
Standard
Deviation 3,879.85 40,99,656.97
Actual
Value
(normal
distribution)
99,619.64 132,81,470.59
It can be observed from the table that maximum value of cost of demolition is 20,907,000.00 and min value of it is 7,951,000.00,
which indicate that there is huge difference between minimum and maximum cost of demolition. It can be said that cost of demolition
varied from one location to another to great extent. Standard deviation value is 4,099,656.97, which reflect that huge deviation is
observed in overall cost of demolition across different locations. In case risk is uncertain, cost of demolition may increase at fast rate.
Total cost of demolition is 132, 81,470.59 and sum of total expected value is 99619. It can be said that cost of demolition is higher
than expected values. It can be said that there is need to take some more steps to improve performance. New ideas must be identified
of cost cutting in order to reduce gap between total cost and expected value.

Probability distribution of total cost of demolition
Explanation
Probability distribution chart reflects that in case of each mitigation item expenditure will remain in range of £1, 00,000 to £6,
and 00,000 as reflected by the uniform distribution diagram. Huge part of demolition is equal to £1, 00,000. Chart that is given above
also reflects that most of the mitigation purchase values will remain in range of £1, 00,000. There will be moderate number of items
whose value will be equal to £ 2, 00,000. There are only few items in mitigation purchase whose value is equal to £ 5, 00,000 and £ 6,
00,000. Hence, it is concluded that value of the most of mitigation purchase items is in range of £1, 00,000.

REFERENCES
Books & journals
Standard deviation and variance, 2014. [Online]. Available through :< http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-deviation.html>.
[Accessed on 10th January 2016].