Risk Perception and Analysis

Risk perception and analysis
RISK PERCEPTION AND ANALYSIS
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Risk perception and analysis
RISK PERCEPTION AND ANALYSIS
The purpose of risk analysis is to describe in detail how an adverse incident may occur,
estimating how often and the cost it has. Through the use logical diagrams reflecting the logic
of the failures and processes that lead to such incidences occurring (Modarres, 2006). This
structured method gives insight on the smallest of details on the occurrence process and ways
of directing control measures on specified predictable processes. In this paper, we will cover
various concepts of risk analysis by answering structure questions with the most fitting
answers (Aven, 2012).
Part A
Case 1
The case is of an energy threat namely chemical bonding energy. The explosion in the mine
was due to the presence of hydrocarbon gas or that of coal bust which is combustible
(Grondzik, 2008). This was unintentional however it is possible to mitigate such
consequences through carrying out relevant tests to ascertain that the mine is free from
flammable hydrocarbon gases and coal dust. As a result, 29 miners lost their lives, the mine,
machinery and mining equipment were damaged. Witnesses and possibly any survivors may
have suffered mental disorders and trauma. Consequentially, the mine went under
receivership because of bankruptcy coming from the losses incurred during the mine
explosion
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Risk perception and analysis
Case 2
Kinetic energy from the flying aircraft is involved as it hits the power lines, then gravitational
energy acts pulling it down hit the road-side and the road embarkment. the collision into the
power lines was because of human error on the side of the pilot. Damage incurred was the
loss of the aircraft, destruction of the power line, interruption of power supply, time wastage.
For the pilot of the aircraft possible loss of flying licenses and the aircraft, company will lose
the trust of its clientele. The consequences could have been more if the aircraft busted into
flame which may cause the lose of life and destruction of vehicles on the roads. To deal with
such consequence licenced pilots and people in the aviation industry can be retrained and
tested.
Case 3
When the woman was being transferred to the emergency vessel muscle energy was involved.
Unintentionally the woman went over-board, gravitational energy took cause and she fell into
the cold sea. Then after thermal energy acts as she loses heat. Damages were that the woman
died and most probably the emergency crew lost their credibility. To sort out the
consequences of this occurrence train the emergency personnel on how to administer
adequate treatment until the water vessel is safe within the land mass quick and efficient
transfer of patient for further treatment. People may stereotype the to be related to travelling
at sea therefore as a result the number of people travel by sea will reduce.
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Risk perception and analysis
Case 4
Pressure and gravitational energy on the bridge over time makes the suspension cable fail.
Maintenance could have deduced the failure of the cable; therefore, negligence is the cause of
this failure. In the case that during construction the right material was not used this could also
add to be a mechanism to lead to the collapsing event. Consequences are the destruction of
the bridge, unknown number of vehicles, people died due to drowning, wastage of time as
connectivity between the areas linked by the bridge is destroyed. The collapse of the bridge
reduces the credibility of the engineers who constructed it. Inspection of the bridge for
weakness after a period will assist to remove its vulnerability. The collapse of the bridge
reduces the credibility of the engineers who constructed it.
Case 5
At that height, the cliff contains potential energy after the action of gravitational energy the
cliff collapses. Since this was caused by natural causes this was inevitable. Resulting in the
destruction of the cliff which is a natural habitat for plants and animals. The destruction of
the cliff means subsequent death or possible migration of animals living in the cliff. The
death of the couple is also a consequence. People should be vigilant in the cause of
occurrences such as this to prevent adversities.
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Risk perception and analysis
Case 6
Building collapses from the action of gravitational pull and the result of chemicals since this
was factory (Cioaca, 2011). The building collapses gaining kinetic energy burying the works
in the rumbles. In the case that the factory was not built to the required standards of building
this could be a mechanism to cause collapse. The building fell because of human negligence
the maintenance of the factory building (Creto, 2011). As result the damage of the factory,
factory machinery, death of 1100 factory workers. Also, the loss of the factory business is a
damage to the owner of the factory.
Case 7
Poison falls under chemical energy bonds. the worker intentionally poisons the fish after
which when supplied for human consumption it causes bodily harm. Damages incurred were
the loss of life of 2483 people, the destruction of the company’s reputation, the employee
faces a possible jail charge because of murder. Poison make cause permanent damage when
ingested. For instance, the destruction of the stomach lining and other medical complications
that also may fall under consequences in this case. For mitigation purposes, food from food
processing industries should be tested for quality and standards fit for human consumption.
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Risk perception and analysis
Case 8
In this situation, the energy involved is chemical bond energy (Modarres, Kaminskiy &
Krivtsov, 2016). Arsonists started the fire. The grass and coal in the mine were fuelling the
fire. The smoke caused damage to the atmosphere, air quality, caused breathing
complications and destruction to nature for the grass was habitat to animals and plants. The
failure of the mining and the power plant to adhere to the safety requirements may cause
possible lawsuit or subsequent closure. The community around them will form a negative
perception towards the mine and the power plant. The safety standards be maintained in
major industries and provide relevant cooperate social responsibly to surrounding community
in such occurrences.
Case 9
Muscle energy from the tiger which attacked the wildlife park keeper. Un-intentionally, the
cage in which the park keeper was in failed and the tiger attacked him while in it. The
damage done was the injury of the park worker, the loose of interest by park keepers, and the
destruction of the human and animal relationship. The number of people visiting the park will
reduce. Workers at the park will be in fear of safety while working. Workers in the park
should be trained on safety while working at the park and instilled with the attribute of
valuing their lives.
Case 10
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Risk perception and analysis
Mine tailing dam forms the source of potential energy which fails. The failure of the tailing
dam was unintentional though it would have been noticed early. Damages incurred were the
destruction of the mine tailings dam, pollution of the environment, property damage and the
death of people. Possibly the operations of the mine will be halted causing loss. In addition,
the image of the mining company in-charge of the mine tailing damage will be damaged.
PART B
1.
Consequences of the ship running aground are the following: the primary one being the
damage of the ship, destruction of the barrier reef, loss of employment or reduction of rank of
the first and second mate, flooding of the ship, damage to fragile cargo, loss of cargo at sea,
loss of trust in the cargo company. Marine life that was centred around the reef as a habitat or
hunting ground will be at lose.
2.
Severity of the consequences varies. The damage to the ship destroys its condition and
renders losses to the owner. The cargo company loses its ship and with it goes employees’
jobs. The responsible for the event is likely to be demoted or dismissed from his position.
Flooding of the ship will cause possible losses and damage to cargo on board. This means
losses will be incurred to customers and to the company which will need to avail repairs for
the ship. The loss or damage to goods tarnishes the reputation of the cargo company name is
a serious consequence as it has future business implications. The destruction of the barrier as
a minor consequence as it is a natural feature, but the contact is bound to be quite impactful
to the ship.
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Risk perception and analysis
3.
At the specific time the first mate forgot to change the last course coordinate as directed by
the second mate. The first mate had worked for 38 hours straight before he could rest for 2
hours. The ship being in motion becomes the source of kinetic energy. The lack of entry of
right coordinates make the ship run course into the Great Barrier Reef. This essentially led to
the wrecking of the ship.
4.
It is possible the first mate did not trust the second mate, therefore, holding his action of
changing the course coordinates. However, the probability of this happening is very minimal
as the second mate had worked with the captain in plotting the coordinates. It was simply
unintentional for the first mate to forget changing the course coordinates handed to him by
the second mate. It should be assumed that it was a human error by the first mate that led to
the situation with coordinates. This can partly be blamed on fatigue as the rest that the first
mate had was insignificant.
5.
According to my understanding, the pre-conditions are simply conditions that favour
occurrence of the mechanism. The pre- condition was that the first mate had supervised the
docking and loading of the ship for 28hrs. The second pre-condition is that he had just come
from his 2hr sleep and lastly, he was also not present when the course was being plotted.
Human behaviour is seen to play a role in favouring the occurrence mechanisms that would
lead to consequences. It is in human nature to have enough rest to allow someone work
normally and efficiently. Body activity and behaviour can be affected by the amount of rest a
person has.
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Risk perception and analysis
6.
The major outcome is the damage to the ship as it ran aground (Waller, 1984). Consequently,
the ship may have flooded if the damage was great enough. The ship may cause a spillage of
oil depending what it was carrying as cargo. Fragile cargo in the ship may be ruined or even
cargo fall over board depending on the impact of the ship running aground. The first and
second mate may lose their jobs because of negligence. All this may be sensible factors to
reduce customers confidence in the shipping company.
Part C
1.
Pre-condition for mechanism
Pre-condition for mechanism focuses on condition that favour the occurrence of the
mechanism (Dawnson, 2017). There are many conditions that may favour the mechanism
building an environment suitable for the mechanism to flourish. Pre-conditions are classified
into the following sub groups
 Design standards
 Construction and installation management
 Commissioning processes (Grondzik, 2008)
 Inspection and maintenance practices
 Operating methods
 Training, certification and authorisation methods
 Quality management practices, for example. compliance reviews, system reviews.
 Physical conditions
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Risk perception and analysis
 Organisational practices
 Procedural systems
 Behaviour of people.
The pre-condition for mechanism cover a very wide scope. Starting from the point where
equipment, machinery and buildings etc are analysed, organisational structures and practices
are also investigated. All these processes are crucial in the functioning of cargo ships. In this
case, these areas all receive special attention to ensure smoothness of operations. They
depend one each other for full functionality.
There are the areas that are more important. Design standards, construction and installation
management the basic and most important details. Management practices, maintenance
training and authorization are vital in directing the processes involved. Persons need to well
versed with procedures and the operating conditions presented in different circumstances.
The behaviour of individual also is not left out as a factor that may favour the occurrence of a
mechanism. (Dey, 2015)
Proficiency in all these aspects is necessary consequently could be a series of circumstances,
events or a combination of different variables. Consequence of the nature may be preventable
through getting rid of one of the causes or this could entail understanding the combination
and interaction of the factors of the event.
2.
The first mate supervised the docking of the ship at Gladstone. After which he also went
forward to supervise the loading of the ship for more than 28hrs straight. Loading was
complete, and it was time to set sail and he was also there supervising the de-docking of the
ship. The first mate leaves for a 2hrs to have a rest as the second mate takes over. During his
sleep the captain and the second mate plotted a suitable course to be used different from the
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Risk perception and analysis
previous one. However, they had entered every other coordinate except the last one. On
return from his rest the second mate informs him of the changes to be made a he leaves. The
first mate forgets to enter the last coordinates.
In this case the mechanism which is the first mate to the captain forgetting to enter the last
coordinates may have been influenced by the following reasons:
 He was to tire from the long hours of work
 He was still sleepy
 Negligence and human error
All these pre-conditions may result to poor judgement and poor decision making which may
be the main cause that favoured the mechanism.
From the pre-condition method, it is possible to see that human behaviour can be used in the
determination of factors that favoured the mechanism to occur (Slovic et al, 2004).
Somalia a country in Africa has been experiencing civil war characterised by attacks by re-
know terrorist groups. Therefore, a troop of 15 soldiers sent on a mission into a war-prone
area in the coast of Somalia. As the vehicles were entering the region they see a little boy
stand over the body of what seems to be a woman shading tears. One of the soldiers quickly
gets off to assist the body causing the vehicle to stop to wait for him. As he approached the
boy a bomb went off killing 6 soldiers and injuring 3 others.
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Risk perception and analysis
Part D
1.
It is possible to express exposure numerically. Consider a coin toss. For every toss in the air
give the possibility of a consequence in a given period. Therefore, exposure can be given as
the number of occasions per unit time. For a coin tossed 13 times in one minute then the
exposure will be 13 divided by 60 seconds to give the value of exposure.
2.
Probability is the likeliness of a consequence to occur in the context of risk (Pinto, 2016). It is
the quantifiable potential of a risk occurring as expressed in odds of 1. The measure of the
probability of the risk is given by the frequency of the consequence divided by the exposure.
Note that every unit is given over a time of a year (Kumamoto & Henley, 2000).
Frequency/year = Probability/year * Exposure/ year
The measure of probability of this soldier being killed at war is very high since the exposure
rate in Somalia is very high. The militia group forms a very large resistance group. They are
skilled, heavily armed and very willing to sacrifice themselves in battle. Familiarity with the
region also give the militia some advantage and more probability of the soldier being killed.
3.
The units of frequency can simply be defined as the number of cases that occur within the
span of a year. In this case, it is the number of times that a consequence or an event repeats
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Risk perception and analysis
itself in one year. (Hopkin, 2010). Probability does not have dimensions thus probability
density can be used to measure probability over a unit space of time (Brown, Cox Jr &
L.A.T., 2011).
4.
This being a war zone the severe consequence is the occurrences of death. This is one of the
most frequent occurrence in the risk above. Followed by the serious eventuality is being lame
or having permanent deformities (Brown, Cox Jr & L.A.T., 2011). In the same context,
insanity or mental problems may arise due to trauma of constant wars. This is however a
gradual process. Consequences values range accordingly based on a lot of aspects. The risk in
this case is often influenced by the organisational plan, the region’s propensity to war and the
capabilities of the militia (Kumamoto & Henley, 2000). Human judgement is influential in
the scenario as the soldier is clearly misled to stop and help which leads to devastation. It is
nonetheless rare to associate the consequences in a military field with influence by human
behaviour since they are disciplined forces. In Somalia, the consequences value associated
with death or maiming are high as they get (Brown, Cox Jr & L.A.T., 2011).
Probability of getting killed in Somalia
6/15 = 0.4
Probability of getting an injury in Somalia
3/15 = 0.2
Given the sample case, the consequence values are very high. This means that soldiers are
getting injured and killed. A reasonable rage should be below probability of 0.2 for both
consequence types. The frequency can be computed with data across all year round.
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Risk perception and analysis
5.
Risk is the process that lead to occurrence of damage, injury or loss. According to ISO it is
defined as the combination of the probability of an event and its consequences (Fakras,
2014). In my opinion, the ISO definition given is simple, and it simply defines what risk is in
using numerical values. However, since the parameters that define risk vary from place to
place, individual to individual and so forth, it is important to mention what entails the
consequences. These are provided in the initial definition. These definitions give a clear and
concise scope of risk. Then risk, even though in the scenario it is given in the same period
and locality, risk will not be same. Therefore, the probability that the risk numeral is constant
in two people is very low (Holmberg, 2018). Risks take different forms and shapes and the
definitions adequately provide the variable involved (Slovic et al, 2004).
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