Risk Perception and Analysis Assignment

Risk Perceptions and Analysis 1
RISK PERCEPTION AND ANALYSIS
Student’s Name
Professor’s Name
University
City
Date

Risk Perceptions and Analysis 2
Risk Perception and Analysis
Question 1 Part A
It is an environmental risk as the hazardous chemical can harm people, property and the
environment and domestic chemicals. The mining process could have penetrated into the pockets
of hydrocarbon gas in the air hence causing an explosion (McIvor and Johnston 2016).
Hydrocarbon as a '' hazardous chemical'' ought to be placed in caution as it’s a risk factor at
workplaces. According to Singh, Nair, Kamal, Bihari, Gupta, Mudiam, Satyanarayana, Raj, Haq,
Shukla and Khan (2017) the precautionary activities include proper storage, guidelines on
handling and management in preventing workers and environment from suffering the setbacks of
an incidence.
Question 2
The event presents a global risk. Pandemics and interruptions bring hazards to air traffic and road
traffic. In this case, the power line interrupted the movement of the aeroplane across to the
airfield. Power lines that were lying on the road, consequently, closed the way for some time
pending clearance. The burning wreckage of the plane blocked the carriageway hence being a
global risk.
Question 3
The event also presents a utility risk that is caused by failures or interruptions to the delivery of
the sick woman who was being transferred from a cruise ship to another vessel for emergency
medical treatment just before she fell into the sea (Li 2014).
Question 4

Risk Perceptions and Analysis 3
This is a property and equipment risk whereby, a bridge has collapsed due to the cable
breakdown that got suspended. Such damage from natural disaster and vandalism, proprietors
will be covered from the risk of property and equipment (Kerner and Lawrence 2014).
Question 5
The case is not different from the one in (4) above as the collapse of the cliff is a form of natural
disaster hence referred to as a property risk.
Question 6
Also, a property risk would be used in the incident occurred for the collapse of the Rana Plaza, in
Bangladesh. The factory will have to cover itself against the property or equipment risk for the
loss that occurs.
Question 7
This is a pandemic risk. It has involved an employee who has carelessly poisoned "food" that
would be consumed by customers (Fan, Jamison and Summers 2016). The poisoned fish were to
be eaten by the factory's customers. This means that were it for the factory to ensure itself; it
would have taken a cover for pandemic risk.
Question 8
This case would be looked upon as work health safety risks for the owners of the old mine. In my
point of view, I feel that the miners should have sought a cover for property, equipment risk and
also work health safety risk (Waters and Dick, 2015). In one hand, the fire is ignited by a nearby
grass and forest fire lit by arsonists. The work health safety risk should cover any uncertainty
caused at the place of work or the working environment (Andreassi, Piccaluga, Guagliumi, Del
Greco, Gaita, and Picano 2016). However, on the other hand, a loss has occurred in that their
property has been destroyed. Had the workers insured their farms and equipment from property

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and equipment risk, the insurance company would have covered the loss or destruction of their
water pipes.
Question 9
This is also an occurrence that would have led to the proprietor seeking a work health safety risk
cover. It is an accident caused by a tiger in her working station.
Question 10
Evidently, this is a technological risk. Any loss caused by computer network failures and
problems associated with using outdated equipment in a location, the company should seek cover
for the technical risk (Haimes 2015). In this case, BHP Billiton and Viale company should cover
for the loss of the lives in that surrounding environment.
Part B: Applying the Time Sequence Model
Question 1
The captain of the vessel ought to be charged alongside the other steering members for the havoc
caused at the marine park. The first mate and the second will be held responsible as the lack of
placing coordinates was caused by either their incomplete coding or forgetting to follow
instructions placed prior to the occurrence (Devalkar, Anupindi and Sinha 2017). Both the
captain, the second and first mate will follow one investigation conducted by the marine
officials.
Question 2
b) Having charged the captain together with his first mate, their licenses to operate may be taken
from them. As a result, they would have paid a massive amount of cash for the offence hence
experiencing a loss. However, if both the captain and the first mate had taken a risk cover of

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staffing, the insurance company would have incurred the loss and their fines for their sake
(Cameron, L. and Shah, M., 2015).
Question 3
In the case, the persons responsible for the grounding remain the first mate, the second mate and
the captain in charge of the ship who through their lack of communication and implementation of
recommendations led to the havoc caused at the reef thus spilling tons of oil into the ocean
destroying marine natural habitat. Anybody will agree to Derek Viner's beliefs about human
beings not being talented in designing to prevent things going wrong and planning to limit the
damage when things do go wrong (Gutteling 2015).
Therefore the captain with his mates was not able to stop the destruction or limit the damage
itself since it was a form of "accident". However, some human mistakes could be avoided by
being attentive to what is in hand. Laxities and ignorance would lead to severe and dangerous
risks like this being discussed. According to the pre-luminary investigations, the ship failed to
turn at the waypoint in joining the route to the deep sea thus failing to alter the course of the
journey and landing on the reef where the vessel was grounded.
d) Possible mechanisms
A possible mechanism is the risk management of the danger that had occurred in the incident. It
would involve conducting clean up on the Great Barrier Reef. Oil spreads fast and can cause a
substantial damage to the marine life. As such, the matter has to be treated with utmost
emergency and care to reduce the level of damage to the habitat. The cleanup exercise can be
performed by the marine rescue team as they await compensation in a bid to save the aquatic life
that may be at risk.

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Future prevention of similar occurrence can be pinned to the use of intelligent control systems
which utilize communication technologies that are real-time in nature essential in automatic
management and monitoring of vessels and other foreign bodies.
Furthermore, the option of geo-fencing can be explored as it deals with the automatic
detection of the entrance of individuals into dangerous preset forbidden zones is the primary
safety management model revealed in the literature. But the simple trigger logic of the geo-
fencing can only offer managers poor binary information concerning on-site workers' behavior
and may lead to frequent false positives.
As a consequence, the development of an integrated method to perform real-time safety
risk assessment of on-site workers based on probability concepts is necessary. According to
Moloi (2016), real-time location technologies should provide the workers' real-time location
data. Real-time safety risk assessment is essential as a safety procedure as the use of automatic
monitoring technology provides assistance to the risk aversion as well as reduces costs incurred
in saving the marine life (Hopkin 2017). Besides, the real-time location system for personnel and
the monitoring system for structure constitute a complete solution for health and safety
management in the marines.
e) Pre-conditions of the mechanism
The Shen Neng 1 should adopt a policy that can be divided into the two groups of on-site users
and off-site users. They users can access different software as their needs are different. On-site
users include workers, site supervisors, and machinery. The software is an Android App which
would control the GPS module and Wi-Fi module of the smartphones. GPS will be used when
users are outdoors and Wi-Fi when users are in indoor places such as tunnels. The primary
application for off-site users is a web-based software system allowing access to any

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authenticated user with internet access, no matter where they are (Reason 2016). The web page
will provide users with a response on the real-time locations of the ship. The historical
trajectories remain available for ad hoc queries.
These functions assist the captain and his mates to be aware of the situation on the ship
very conveniently. Moreover, on top of the system, for safety management purposes, the
identification and classification of hazards and real-time worker risk assessments are
implemented (Reason 2000). Thus, a knowledge-based system is created in which system
parameters, threshold values, and rules are stored and organized.
f) The outcome of the event.
1. The event is undoubtedly dangerous to both human beings and the environment of residence.
Therefore, several outcomes would emanate from the case as the reef was damaged with the oil
spillage which threatens the marine life. As a result, the persons in charge would cater for the
clean-up exercise to be conducted speedy to avert more damage to the aquatic life.
2. When combined with the real-time location system, the RTSRA will build a logical
relationship between safety risk and the locations of on-site assets. The proposed method will
leverage the massive data produced by the RTLS to provide sufficient site information
(Kostopoulos, 2016). That information will enable the captain together with his mates to
anticipate the locality and potential occurrence of safety risk, and it will contribute to more
effective computerized decision processes.
3. The on-site application will show that the proposed method is reliable and effective for real-
time safety risk assessment. The logic and the function of the proposed novel method fulfill
the goals of safety management in the cargo ship.

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PART C TIME ZONE 1
Question 1
The model in use for the case is referred to as the simple linear model which works on the
assumption that accidents remain as a culmination of a set of events which together interact
sequentially, thus justifying the fact that accidents are preventable through elimination of one of
the causes in a linear sequence.
As observed in the case, all the factors have a relation and the causative agents acted one
after another where an omission of one would lead to the prevention of the accident. In this case,
the act of forgetting to place the coordinates despite having the information led to the accident.
The act was followed by the act of the first mate entering coordinates and leaving the last one to
the next occupant thus leading to the accident. On the side of the reef owners, placement of
proper barricades and monitoring tools would assist in preventing the accident from occurring as
the captain would note it or the official have a red flag raised on the activity of the ship and
earlier communication done to avoid the mishap.
The applicability of the linear model can work in determining prevention measures in
reducing the possibility of risk occurrence. The theory remains practical in understanding the
cause of the accident as all factors point to the lack of memory on inserting the last coordinate
which led to the incident. The several factors involved could be avoided had the marine park
officials place a barrier or monitoring tools to warn the ship crew of an impending danger. The
absence of the same and lack of action led to the case. At the same time, the lack of proper
communication and confirmation of reports once handed over by a retiring mate led to the
situation (Haimes 2015). Had the first mate considered the impacts of the omission or act of

Risk Perceptions and Analysis 9
forgetting, the chances of the case occurring would remain minimal as the right course of way
would be followed to the main sea.
Question 2
Simple Sequential Linear Accident Model
Simple sequential accident models refer to the school of thought where accidents are perceived
to occur as a result of a series of events occurring in a specific order that can be recognized. The
series of events in this case occur in a given order such that if one factor is removed from a case,
little or no chances of an accident remain viable (Herrera and Woltjer 2010).
On the other hand, it is based on the assumption that the occurrence of an accident can be
prevented by either dislodging one of the risk factors which leads to the eventual disturbance of
the rest of the possible occurrences that would lead to an incident.
The case is true for the case study of the ship grounding as any operation by the second
mate towards completing the coordinate points would lead to a successful aversion of the
grounding. In this respect, it is important to define the beginning to the end of an accident in
finding the sequence of events thus assists in averting the same in the future. All the
circumstances leading to the event have to be reported to assist in future preventive activities.
Question 2
The opportunity of preventing an accident from occurring remains open at the time zone 1. The
situation is so because there is sufficient time between the time zone and that of the occurrence
where precautionary measures would lead to a possible aversion of the case. A preventive
mechanism ought to have been developed where for instance both of the mates would sit down
and chat the coordinates together and complete them before going to take rest (Bolton, Chen and
Wang 2013). In organizations, accidents occur due to the failure to look into the hazards that

Risk Perceptions and Analysis 10
might lead to future complications. In this case, the second mate failed to look into the hazardous
occurrence that might be caused should the information passed onto the first mate fail to be
executed. While noting down the coordinates, he acknowledged its importance and carried out
the task diligently only to leave the last part that was equally crucial to the journey. The case of
human error arises in the situation as the failure to recall the instruction given led to the accident.
Establishing hazard prevention measures at time zone 1 remains essential towards prevention of
such incidences.
PART D: QUANTIFYING ESTIMATES OF RISK
According to PMBOK standard, risk quantification is a process involving the
identification of risks followed by data analysis and relevant correspondence on the threat factor.
The step is crucial as it follows the risk identification stage prior to development of preventive
measures.
The objective of project risk quantification is to prepare contingencies in t costs, time, or
human resources and prioritize them. PMBOK, ISO 31000, and PRINCE2 provide principles and
processes for effective risk management. Risks remain quantified by using either expert
intuitions or statistical tools. These tools offer various advantages to risk quantification despite
having their limitations. The limitations as well as the challenges of the risk quantification
process, are essential to consider to ensure effective risk management. The method of risk
quantification is a necessary step of the risk management process and therefore, essential to
ensure the success of a project.
Therefore, it can be seen that there is a small difference between means of these standards, but
when the definition of each step remains under critical analysis, it can be realized that the basic
concept surrounding the standards is not different. This implies that different rules divide the risk

Risk Perceptions and Analysis 11
management process into various steps, but the core concepts remain the same. For example,
PMBOK defines the third step as risk response development which means categorizing of
assessed risks into acceptable or unacceptable risks and developing of responses accordingly
(Ellingwood and Kinali 2009).
Expected monetary value is one of the best ways to quantify risk. According to PMBOK,
an expected monetary value remains a product of two numbers. As a result, the benefit of
probability risk and that of an event stay an estimate of the gain or loss that can be incurred in the
case of a risk occurrence. Specific equipment will fail during a project that will produce in
USD10,000, then EMV will be USD -6,000. The table above shows an example of EVM
analysis. It can be perceived that a total of USD4,500 is required as a contingency, but in actual
only USD1,100 are necessary as subsequent events may fail to occur. Thus it means that the risks
which are to occur or fail to happen will add their value to EMV pool, where probabilities that
are going to happen will utilize value from this pool (Ellingwood and Kinali 2009). Hence, for
this example, a project manager can add extra USD1, 100 to project budget as a contingency.
EMV helps project managers in two ways.
First, it helps to manage to estimate the amount required to operate all identified risks.
Secondly, it assists in selecting the choice to lead the chance by choosing the option with the
minimum value. The EMV is that it provides help in calculating contingency reserves, in
procurement planning decision-making, in spreading the impact of a large number of risks, and
in decision tree analysis. Whereas drawbacks of using this technique are that this technique not
used in small and small-medium sized projects, use of expert opinion may result in personal bias/
and the chance of forgetting of inclusion of definite risks.

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Nature of quantification of estimates of risk
The current section illustrates quantified estimation of consequences of risk of accident of
container ship that is shipwreck. Different consequences of wreckage of ship include
acquirement of loss otherwise damage caused to entire container ship, affected terminals of the
container ship, damage to the properties exposed in both onshore as well as offshore. Essentially,
the risk recognized direct the way towards subsequent losses and in this specific case losses can
be classified in terms of cost. Particularly, damage caused to the chief engine incurs the
maximum cost; however, this is necessarily followed by auxiliary engines and after that charges
for turbo. Nevertheless, damage caused to the entire container ship can direct the way towards
huge amount of losses in which costs of container ship together with damage to diverse parts can
be taken into account. Furthermore, ship wreckage also shows the ways to abysmal loss to
marine life that is again cause of unparalleled loss to the entire ecosystem.
Quantification of the approximated risk
Risks Detected Value (in terms of Australian
Dollar)
Overall Container Ship Worth 10 million
Worth of Container Approximately 3000 to around 5000
for each container (depending on
container the size)
Failure of the main engine due to
wreckage
4000000
Failure of Turbocharger 700000
Cruise Ship Engine Room Fire 260000
Damage to Rudder 965000
Boiler (water and tanker loss) 110000

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Damage of Gearbox 470000
Failure caused to auxiliary engine 524000
Cargo Crane 600000
Summary
The ISO guidelines provide a proper path towards development and realization of aspects
in risk management. Right from the planning moment, the specifications go through the training
process essential in equipping the persons involved with the knowledge regarding various
operations. Further, it entails the risk assessment tools and preparedness measures to be explored
thus preparing one adequately. In later stages, it talks of the monitoring aspects where persons in
charge observe the process and evaluate issues of concern while trying to minimize the
possibility of causing a havoc. According to Leitch (2010), evaluation remains key in learning
from mistakes and placing more concern towards insurance cover in risk aversion of avoiding the
payment of heavier fines in cases of calamities.
Risk management is an important and crucial aspect in any business. For posterity
purposes, it is proper for precautionary measures to be considered in making sure occurrences
that can be prevented remain minimal. As such, it is essential to follow-up on the guidelines
provided towards workplace safety and risk management training in developing a wholesome
generation (Purdy, G., 2010).
Moreover, it stipulates the importance of communication and training in averting the risk
of exposure and persons involved in any occurrence. In re-assuring safety, the guideline

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expounds on monitoring and evaluation where several aspects of risk are examined and a
probable solution given for further improvement (Brenner 2007). All these aspects are entailed in
the guideline in line with controlling, managing, and monitoring risks towards safety concerns
around the globe.
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