Modeling the Determinants of Saudi GDP Growth Rate

This case study on Desklib explores the determinants of Saudi GDP growth rate, including factors like inflation, exports, exchange rate, population, and government spending. It includes a regression model, hypothesis testing, scatter plots, and multiple regression analysis.

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Student Name
Professor
Course
Date
Saudi Arabian Economy Model
Case Study 1: Modeling the Determinants of Saudi GDP Growth Rate
Group work (maximum three students allowed. Individual work permitted)
(Due Date: 17 February 2018)
Economic theory states that GDP growth rate of a country depends on some factor such as
exchange rate (EXCHR), exports value (Exports), population of the country (POP), inflation
level (INF) and government consumption expenditure (GCE) or spending. Saudi Minister of
Economy is interested to see the relevance of this economic theory in Saudi Arabian context in
particular due to the impact of Vision 2030 and related changes such as VAT, reduction in
subsides, population and labor force, oil exports and value of currency, etc. You have been
asked to advise the Minister on the impact of these factors on economic growth rate. The data on
Saudi Arabia for these variables is collected and given to you (uploaded on LMS). Use the data
and answer the following questions:
Study questions

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1. Use these variables to model determinants of GDP growth rate (build a regression
model).
Gross Domestic Product of a country in question that is Saudi Arabia just like any other
country from a global perspective is affected by some determinants. Basing on the available
data in excel and the prior information it is clear that SA's GDP is profoundly affected by
country's population, inflation levels (which on its own is contributed by many factors), the
government consumption expenditure, the exports and import values to mention but a few.
The elements work so tightly in control of the country's GDP and as a whole impacting on
the economic stability of the nation regarding the exchange rate for the national currency as
well as the international stock exchange rates. The global empirical model for regimes put
the SA as the alternative currency that has gone through a series of reformation.
Microeconomic as well as macroeconomic features in most cases played a downside role in
the ensuring that SA linkages with the entire market on the global arena were interfered with.
2. Determine the effect of each variable (positive or negative) based on your intuition and
economic theory
Inflation; it is brought about by too many imports in the country and other factors for
instance reduced rates of borrowing which encourage people to borrow. In the process, there
is more money chasing fewer commodities in the country. The result of inflation is a
reduction in the country exchange value on international markets as well as low pricing for
the country exports ( Al-Torkistani et al Pg.23). In that regard there would be a reduction in
the GDP unless the situation takes a reverse turn.

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Exports; they are the sources of the country's national income and as such an increase in
exports improves the GDP as a reduction has the same effect on the GDP.
Exchange rate; it is determined by some factors majorly by political and economic
factors. Political factors derail economic activities and a reduction in operations in business
reduce the national currency exchange value for money on the international exchange rate
platform. The currency is devalued and as such fetches low in comparison to other
currencies. A proper and peaceful political environment breeds business activities through
the attraction of investors and hence an improvement in the national currency value that
translates to an increase in the GDP of the nation.
Government Consumption expenditure; government expenditure is a result of the
acquisition of the items by the government to facilitate the routine and administrative running
of the government projects. Meeting of population public needs for instance medication and
education were some of the concerns (Alshehry, Atef andMounir Pg 45). An increase in the
government spending reduces the GDP as a reduction increases the GDP.
The population of the country; the higher the people of the country, the more the
government spending on the facilities for the people and thus registering for a more senior
amount regarding expenditure. The GDP of the country drops since the expenditure is a
credit account on the national treasury. The lower the population, the less the spending by the
government and as such a debit account to the national treasury.

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3. Build hypothesis (null and alternative) and explain.
Null Hypothesis: The Saudi Arabian economy is profoundly affected by the movements
in the country GDP
Alternative Hypothesis: The Saudi Arabian economy is not dependent on the GDP
4. Now draw scatter plot of each independent variable against dependent variable and make
a commentary regarding relationships (draw a trend line alongside scatter plot to observe
relations: positive/negative)
Scatter Plot for independent Variables

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5. Now perform multiple regression and observe the statistical significance level and signs
of the coefficients. Does the regression results confirm your earlier hypothesis or not? If
not, what could be the reason? Provide detailed explanation.
Interpretation of the regression results as done in excel confirms the validity of
the null hypothesis in the following ways.
The economy dis-aggregation about other stakeholders on the national stock
exchange works contrary to the success of SAR currency as the nation had poor
economic pillars for use in a bid to save the reputation of the SAR.The SAR fetched
way below par on the foreign exchange market and as such that the country put in
measures to oversee its improvement in the future. The attaining of the stable economy to
the extent that SAR is used as a reserve currency has not come quickly (Darlington,
Richard and Andrew Pg 33). It has taken some considerations for economic parameters
both at the local level as well as the international outlook to bring the sanity of the
initially unfamiliar currency in the global stock exchange arena.
SA as a nation has recently put in place economic reforms over its policies in the
business. The country reforms have been in line with the restructuring of the banking
system of the country. The electricity sector had also been put in the limelight as well as
transportation of materials. The state has cut down on the corporate tax rate. It is such
that businesses the policies are flawless to allow entry of new businesses.Owing to the
lowering of the corporate tax and introduction of incentives in the economy, the country
has started experiencing a rise in the economic growth (Samargandi and Nahla Pg
101).The government of SA has taken initiatives in making sure that there is divest in the
public companies through plans. The nation however is experiencing a break down in

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some other parts of its economy due to a weakening business environment thus affecting
competitiveness in business.
The exchange rates regime for the country have been proposed in many cases by
the government and the head financial institutions for SA but a few worked in favor
of the current stability that AS currency enjoys making it third in matters of the weight
of the currency and price at which the yen fetch in comparison to the standard US
dollar. The US dollar has been used and is still in use courtesy of its higher value. The
section provide a preliminary evidence on the effects alternative regimes taken by the SA
government have on the country foreign exchange as well as the impact the same have
on the trade partners in the global arena.
The global empirical model for regimes put the SA as the alternative currency that
has gone through a series of reformation ( Fox and John Pg 40). Microeconomic as well
as macroeconomic features in most cases played a down side role in the ensuring that SA
linkages with the entire market on the global arena was interfered with.
6. Look at the R2 and adjusted R2 values and comment on the explanatory power of your
statistical model.
The statistical model employed in the analysis of the data basing on the R2 and
adjusted R2 indicate a collective influence of the economic contributors to the GDP as a
whole. It is clear that the GDP of the country has other underlying factors.

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The analysis in excel has employed the test hypothesis as one tail test. The
regression as such has taken that approach and as such compared the arithmetic mean
averages to come up with the R2. The values of the R2 and R2 adjusted bear a smaller
deviation unlike they should because of the effect of many variables in the dependent
variables ( Al-Torkistani et al Pg.56). The basic linear model as a method used in the
analysis of the data has exposed the GDP as a function of the determinants of the
economic parameters resulting to the formation of the following regression equation:
GDPG = -52.8303739148481+16.3500517091564*EXCHR+7.53863787504361E-
03*Exports-0.306616502791003*POP+0.429397456046636*INF-8.48529061353034E-
03*GCE
The equation is derived from the common linear regression formula below as a
continuous equation (n) tending to infinity
Y= α + β1X1 + β 2X2 + βn Xn + ε
7. Now, look at the predicted and actual values of the dependent variable and comment on
the predictive power of your model. Is there any message coming out of your model
predictions. Suggest ways to improve the predictive power of your model.
The model predictive power of the model from the findings and evidence shown
cannot be overlooked. The model is evident in the showing proof that the GDP makes an
essential element in the control of the country economy and as such, it cannot belittle in
any form (Alshehry, Atef, and Mounir Pg 45). The GDP from the model has also been

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presented as a dependent on factors, for instance, the country's population, inflation
levels (which on its own is contributed by many factors), the government consumption
expenditure, the exports, and import values to mention but a few. It is clear at the same
time that the model is a representation of an aggregate of factors of which a few have
been highlighted for a description of the entire scenario.
The message from the regression model is open in that it speaks majorly of the
impact various factors have on the ability to determine the direction to which the
economy of Saudi Arabia takes (Muthén and Muthén Pg 121).Any small deviation in any
of the economic parameters either by a positive or negative improvement affects the
aggregate GDP mostly.
There are however ways that can be used for the improvement of the model. The
first one should entail the use of more factors in the regression model (Chatterjee,
Samprit, and Ali pg 89). That would mean that employment of multiple regression
models would do better as it removes the spells of biases. The model in any respect
would lower the degree of errors as the sum of squared errors would be reduced to the
minimum depending on the longevity of the approach used and the factors acting in the
place of the dependent variables take ( Al-Torkistani et al Pg.56). The beta values at the
same time would impact less, and the conclusion on the model would bear a true meaning
of the prediction at hand.

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Works Cited
Alshehry, Atef Saad, and Mounir Belloumi. "Energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and
economic growth: The case of Saudi Arabia." Renewable and Sustainable Energy
Reviews 41 (2015): 237-247.
Al-Torkistani, Habiballah Mohammed, Mohammed Adaya Salisu, and Khalid A. Maimany.
"Modeling a sustainable Saudi Arabian economy: the real issues." International Journal
of Sustainable Development & World Ecology 23.2 (2016): 186-193.
Chatterjee, Samprit, and Ali S. Hadi. Regression analysis by example. John Wiley & Sons, 2015.
Muthén, L. K., and B. Muthén. "Mplus." The comprehensive modelling program for applied
researchers: user’s guide 5 (2015).
Darlington, Richard B., and Andrew F. Hayes. Regression analysis and linear models: Concepts,
applications, and implementation. Guilford Publications, 2016.
Fox, John. Applied regression analysis and generalized linear models. Sage Publications, 2015.
Samargandi, Nahla. "Sector value addition, technology and CO2 emissions in Saudi
Arabia." Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 78 (2017): 868-877.

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