STT100: Statistics Analysis 2022

STT100 Statistics

STT100 Statistics
Country Selection
The analysis gives the average median age globally as 30.74 years old. Considering Afghanistan
as the country of choice, the median age for the country is 18.9 years old. This can be observed
from the results in the Appendix.
Hypothesis
Let μ0 represent the median age in Afghanistan and xbar represent the average median age
globally. The null hypothesis will therefore be as follows:
H0: μ0 > xbar
The corresponding alternative hypothesis is as follows
H1: μ0 ≤ xbar
Level of significance.
The α level of significance for this case is taken as 0.05, implying that the hypothesis above will
be tested for whether there is a 95% difference between the median age in Afghanistan and the
global average median age.
Critical Value
Given that the level of significance is 0.05 and the hypothesis test is a one-tailed hypothesis test,
therefore, the corresponding tabulated Z Score value will be 1.645.
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STT100 Statistics
Test Statistic
The test statistics, Z, is calculated using the formula below (Barbara & Susan, 2014);
In this case, xbar = 30.74, μ0 = 18.9, from the analysis results σ = 8.889 (standard deviation) and
n = 230. Therefore, replacing these figures in the formula above gives:
Decision
The value of the test statistic, Z = 20.20 is greater than the critical value = 1.645. Hence, it falls
outside the acceptance region and we reject the null hypothesis, H0: μ0 > xbar, concluding that the
median age in Afghanistan is less than or equal to the global average median age.
Reasons for Age difference
The demographic characteristics of Afghanistan are mainly shaped by the War in Afghanistan
that has lasted over a period of 18 years from the year 2001 to date (Andrew, 2018). All wars
have an effect on the demography due to the loss of lives on both sides of the conflict, as is
evident from the 1st and 2nd world wars as well as the Yemeni War (Aaron, 2019). However,
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Z = xbar−μ 0
σ
√n
Z = 30.74−18.9
8.889
√ 230
=¿
20.20

STT100 Statistics
unlike these other wars, the protracted nature of the War in Afghanistan has had an extended
effect in the country’s demography.
Mortality rate refers to the number of deaths recorded in a population per 1000 people in the
same population (Uhlenberg, 2009). Wars, in general, have two impacts related to mortality:
direct loss of life in the fighting and, indirect loss of life through casualties and lack of access to
health services and infrastructure (Rahma, et al., 2018). In the fighting, the category of
individuals recruited into the army considered as “able bodied” are mostly between the ages of
23 and 40 (Rahma, et al., 2018). This brings into focus the issue of high mortality rate (adult
mortality rate) in this age group. The number of individuals in this age group is therefore likely
to reduce as the conflict continues, moving the median age of the population from this age group.
Beyond the army fighting directly in a conflict, civilians are often targeted and this may result in
casualties during the conflict as can be seen in Figure 1: Jan-Jun War in Afghanistan Civilian
Casualties Data 2009-2016 below. The most vulnerable groups constitute the civilian population
likely to be targeted and killed (John, 2014). Old aged individuals in any population form a
vulnerable group together with mothers having young children and infants as well as the young
children and infants themselves (Aaron, 2019). This is because these groups of individuals may
not be able to easily move from a location that is exposed to intense fighting to more safe and
secure locations. This similarly brings into focus the issue of high mortality rate (high adult
mortality) rate in the age group of individuals older than 50 and adult women. In addition, it also
brings into focus child and infant mortality rates. Therefore, there is a likelihood of reduction in
the number of individuals in these groups of people as the conflict continues. This results in the
median age moving from these age groups in the population and towards the teenage age groups.
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