Student Name:. Student ID:. 9. Problem Analysis in Stat

Student Name: Student ID: 1
Problem Analysis in Statistics
Student Name: Student ID:
Unit Name: Unit ID:
Date Due: Professor Name:

Student Name: Student ID: 2
Acknowledgement

Student Name: Student ID: 3
Table of Contents
Acknowledgement................................................................................................... 2
Answer 1................................................................................................................. 5
Answer 2................................................................................................................. 9
Answer 3............................................................................................................... 11
Base model setup.................................................................................................. 11
B............................................................................................................................ 12
Base model solution with excel formula sheet with cancelletion numbers............12
C............................................................................................................................ 14
Hotel model solution for zero overbooked rooms..................................................14
Hotel model solution for one overbooked room....................................................16
Hotel model solution for two overbooked rooms..................................................17
Hotel model solution for four overbooked rooms..................................................18
Hotel model solution for five overbooked rooms...................................................19
D. Suggestions to the Hotel manager of hotel Heart Break.................................20
Answer 4............................................................................................................... 21
A. Regression model of Price on mileage travelled.............................................21
Regression model of Price on Age of cars.............................................................22
Regression model of Price on Mileaage and Age of cars......................................23
Correlation between independent variables, Mileage covered and Age of the cars
.............................................................................................................................. 24
Answer 5............................................................................................................... 25
Model setup and solver solution............................................................................25
References............................................................................................................... 29

Student Name: Student ID: 4

Student Name: Student ID: 5
Answer 1
A. Decision making is the course of action chosen by analysing the gathered information
about any project. The alternative solutions are also cross checked and decision tree helps
in building the entire model. There are some steps involved in decision making. Initially
the need of the decision and aim of the project is studied. Then necessary information are
collected and alternative ways are identified. The data are cross checked and choice of
final alternative is completed. Company implements the idea and the after effects are
recorded for future analysis.
B. Alternate strategy is the next best policy obtained in decision modeling and is known as
alternative. Prospect theory explains the alternative strategy, for example fear of future
losses irks people more than the pleasure of future gains. So, minimization of future loss
is an alternative to maximize the future gains.

Student Name: Student ID: 6
C. 1. Conditional profit matrix for 5 alternate strategy is given in figure 1. The calculations
have been done in MS Excel.
Figure 1: Conditional Profit Matrix of Wgga Wagga sale
2. Vendor will buy 25 kg fish if he follows optimistic policy.
Figure 2: Optimistic strategy pay-off matrix
3. Vendor will buy 15 kg fish if he follows pessimistic policy.
Figure 3: Pessimistic Strategy pay-off matrix
4. Vendor will buy 25 kg fish if he follows laplace criterion.