Time Series Analysis for Business Forecasting

Added on - 04 Jun 2020

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Forecasting / Case study
TABLE OF CONTENTSINTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................3PART 1: FORECASTING.........................................................................................................3Question 1: Determining error pertaining to the following forecast and calculate MAD &MSE........................................................................................................................................3Question 2:.............................................................................................................................4A and c: Computation of 5 years moving average and MAD for the same...........................4B. Computation of weighted moving average........................................................................4d. Calculating MAD for weighted moving average...............................................................5e. Stating which forecast model is better over others.............................................................5Question 3: Explaining whether model fit the data set and it can be used for forecasting...5INTRODUCTIONIn the present times, managers of the business unit need to make proper forecast aboutfuture so that suitable strategies can be developed and executed. The present report is basedon different case situations which will shed light on the manner in which simple and movingaverage method aid in forecasting.PART 1: FORECASTINGQuestion 1: Determining error pertaining to the following forecast and calculate MAD &MSEPeriodSalesof carsperweekForecastErrorABS(error)SquaredErrorPercentError1202202.00202.0040804.001.002191202-11.0011.00121.000.06
3173192-19.0019.00361.000.114169181-12.0012.00144.000.075171174-3.003.009.000.0261751723.003.009.000.0271821748.008.0064.000.04819617917.0017.00289.000.09920418915.0015.00225.000.071021919821.0021.00441.000.101122721116.0016.00256.000.0721.5529.733883.910.15BIASMADMSEMAPE1234567891011050100150200250Forecast vs. ActualsalesforecastTimeSalesQuestion 2:A and c: Computation of 5 years moving average and MAD for the sameYearMonthSales5 years MAforecastErrorABS(error)1Jan2512.7---2Feb2739.2---3Mar2874.9---4Apr2934.1---5May2865.76June2978.52785.32193.18193.187July3092.42878.48213.92213.928Aug3052.62949.12103.48103.489Sep3145.22984.66160.54160.5410Oct3114.13026.8887.2287.2211Nov3257.43076.56180.84180.8412Dec36543132.34521.66521.6613Jan3244.66208.69208.6961714.44
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