Tourism Demand Forecasting and Analysis

This assignment delves into the crucial topic of tourism demand forecasting and analysis. Students are tasked with examining various forecasting methods, analyzing the factors that influence tourist flows both positively and negatively (such as economic conditions, political stability, and natural disasters), and considering the impact of climate change on tourism patterns. The assignment emphasizes the importance of understanding these complex interactions to develop effective tourism strategies.

TOURIST
DESTINATION

Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION
A tourist destination related to particular place like is a city, town or other area. It is a
way of earning revenues for country state, region city or town. The travel and tourism industry
related to hospitality where different services provided by them to increase visitors (Cankurt and
Subasi, 2015). For increase travel and tourism UK government can apply different rules and
regulations to increase tourism in UK which has been getting more attention and identification
from the government bodies because of the contribution it gives to the economic development. In
the present scenario, travel and tourism industry has been applied different techniques to attract
customer and promote their companies. In the particular report selected company Audley Travel
group Limited company based in the UK based in Witney, Oxfordshire. In the report to analyse
the scenario focused on those countries who can developed from last few year through tourism.
Tourism destination is going to be popular because of at the place of different destination
provided better services to their customer as reflect to increase tourism. In this report focused on
scope of key UK and worldwide tourist destinations. Apart from identify cultural, social and
physical features of tourist destinations. Understand the characteristics of destination affect their
appeal to tourists. In addition understand issues likely to affect the popularity of tourist
destinations.
TASK 1
1.1 Main tourist destinations and generators of the world in terms of visitors numbers and
income generation
It has been analysed that from last some year the living standard of UK has been
improved and it will help to develop in whole departments. Mostly people like to travelling and
they are spending their money in travel and tourism. So travel companies has been provided
discount offers to people. In the UK, France, Italy and Spain are the important destination
because mostly people wants to go their as compare to other countries. When mostly people can
arrive on particular places so it will increase the level of income as reflected it makes the country
more developed and competent from others. According to the number of visitors, it is obvious
that in the year 2017, most of the people have arrived different countries. While on the other
hand, in the year 2016, 32.1 million visitors arrived to the country and it will affect to level of
arrivals for improved to million of the year of 2017. Therefore, as per the data, it is said that in
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few years tourism at UK has been rising. The economy to intensify the modular of living,
teaching standard and other service sectors. In hence, this activity UK to serve more than repose
services to the last users.
As per the provide data it is said that most of the arrivals are like to visiting in UK as
compared to China, Mexico and Thailand. Still it can say that mostly visitors are arriving to UK
lesser than to other countries but it is analysed that in 2017 so getting that people interest to go
another countries like Flamingo land, major destination and other museums (Carlisle and et.al.,
2013). But now a days UK is also popular of tourist destination in among tourists due to famous
gallery. Cultural and other things. In hence, it is clear that there are presenting significant
destinations -
Rank Country Global Tourism
visitors 2016
(in million)
Global tourism
visitors 2017 (in
million)
Change to 2017
to 2018 (%)
1 France 81.9 86.9 5.1
2 Spain 73.2 81.8 8.6
3 USA 76.2 76.9 0.7
4 China 58.2 60.7 2.5
5 Italy 47.1 58.3 11.2
6 Mexico 27.3 39.3 12.0
7 United Kingdom 32.6 37.7 5.1
8 Turkey 13.5 37.6 24.1
9 Germany 32.3 37.5 5.2
10 Thailand 26.8 35.4 8.6
Travel and tourism plays significant role in hospitality industry and it can increase level
of income (Viken and Granås, 2016). In present time people earn more money so they can spend
their money on tourism. There are presenting table to know which country earn more money
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through travel and tourism. It can help to increase value of the country and also improve
economic policies and living of standard.
Difference of tourist arrivals and tourist receipts
Rank Country International
Tourism Receipts
US $ (2016)
International
Tourism Receipts
US $ (2017)
Change (2016 to
2017)
1 USA $ 208.8 $ 210.7 1.9
2 Spain $ 58.0 $ 68.0 10.1
3 France $ 51.7 $ 60.7 9.0
4 Thailand $ 44.4 $ 57.5 13.1
5 United Kingdom $ 39.1 $ 51.2 12.1
6 Italy $ 36.5 $ 44.2 7.7
7 Australia $ 32.4 $ 41.7 9.3
8 Germany $ 35.6 $ 39.8 4.2
9 Macao (China) $ 28 $ 35.6 7.6
10 Japan $ 19.7 $ 34.1 14.4
France – Evidently, France is one of the major inhabited tourist destination because
visitors from all around the world it is recommended that to arrive the place because of their
beauty and historical view (Vanhove, 2017). Every year more than 12 million people can visit
the destination and the frequency has been increasing from last 3 years in 2017 many peoples can
visit here which is 86.9 million people arrive to their destination. Apart from, comparing the
number of visitors from 2016 and 2017 so it is getting that there is a change of 9.0 in tourist
receipts.
Turkey – In the year 2016, 13.5 million tourists can arrive to their destination of Turkey
however the ratios has been increased to 37.6 million in 2017. There are showing result of
income in the country in 2017 was 36.6.
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Thailand – The frequency of Visitors were more than in Thailand to other countries due
to their beach. In the year of 2016, 26.8 million people can arrive but in 2017 it is increased by
8.6% and remain 35.4.
Germany – The Visitors are identified in 2016, 32.3 million and it is increased in 2017
by 5.2 which is showing 37.5 million in 2017.
United Kingdom – In UK have different cities like Scotland, England, Wales and
Northern Ireland. They all have different famous places where visitors are come to visit because
there are more heritage, per square mile beautiful country sides. In London has usual gateway
and there is enough to keep busy for weeks. In the year of 2016 there was visiting peoples 32.6
which in increased in 2017 that is 37.7 million (Della Corte and Aria, 2016). The income earn by
country was 51.2 in 2017.
USA – The United State America is famous place where most of the peoples are visit and
sped much more money there. There was identified that in 2016, 76.2 million people can visit
but it is not much more increased in 2017 because it is 76.9 in 2017. it means it is increased by
0.7 compare to last year. Most of the visitors visit for job purpose because USA develop country
where people wants to do job. There are spend money in 2016, 208.8 million and in 2017 it is
increased by 1.9 so it is now 210.7 and it is on no 1 to where people can spend money much
more.
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1.2 Analyse Statistics to evaluate tourism destination trends and predict future trends
According to the trends of tourism of last 13 years, it has been analysed that in present
time travel and tourism increased year by year and providing efficient facilities to cusomers
(Frechtling, 2012). But it is seen that number of customer reduce due to costly package of
tourism so it has been marked that in 2013, 24.715 million people are arrived on tourist
destination. So travel companies have to provided different offers to customer which can reflect
as increased number of customers. It is remarkable that only two long Haul markets (USA and
Australia) appeared to be at the top ten places an on the other side these all top ten markets are
measures through values of development rather than emerging markets in international business.
TASK 2
2.1 cultural, social and physical features
Tourist UK Italy Russia
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Destinations
Cultural In the country of UK has
been placed many Cities
like England that are of
historical interest in
which city of
Manchester where
people come in huge
quantity to arrive there.
In second number
London is most popular
city to arrived by people
(Furmanov, Balaeva and
Predvoditeleva, 2012).
Italy is considered the
second largest tourist
earner and most of the
visitors are come here
from all over the world
after wards France due
to people can visit the
destination on the
higher extent.
According to 2017
there are 47.5 million
people can visit in Italy
because of their
cultural and heritage
aspects. Italy has been
blessed with masterful
artists ans architects
who are create
different building
which are attract to
visitors. The significant
places represent the
style of Romanesque
and Byzantine style to
present the importance
of the work. There are
including different
aspects like cultural
supply which is related
to broad range to more
In Russia find out rich
cultural heritage and
great variety of
naturalist where Russia
become more popular
among of all
destinations. Moscow
and saint Petersburg
Museum are featured
and other ornate
churches are the
impressive fortifications
of the destinations.
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than 9% of
municipalities host,
cultural and historical.
Social Tourism plays a
significant role in the
economic life of
England. There are
England has long history
and pervasive culture
expand in all around the
world and English
language and
Colonialism made
England a popular
destination.
Italy famous for rich
cultural and heritage so
people mostly visit
Italy for its rich art,
Cuisine, history,
fashion and culture.
Most of the people like
to travel the place
because of the priceless
ancient monuments
and impressive
monuments. Hence
more It is also bring
more world heritage
sites than any other
country in the world
(Henderson, 2015) .
Russia is a country of
numerous and greatly
variegated cultural
historic sites. A broad
variety of incredible
travel destination is
provided with in the
European part of Russia
and that is most likely
by the customers all
around the world.
Physical England is also
populous for unique
natural environment and
their significant eco
tourism industries as
well. According to 2017,
it has been researched
that 2050000 overseas
visitors have visited in
London for attract to
Italy has over 30
airports in all the major
cities and town and
there are flights run on
the level of domestic
and passengers as well.
So it is clear that
networking and
connectivity aspects of
the country are
In Russia travel and
tourism has been speedy
growth since the last
country times and them
as a popular due to
international tourist
destination as well.
There are identified rich
palaces and parks of
broad beauty are found
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passengers in Italy
(Torres-Delgado and
Saarinen, 2014) .
effected. in the former imperial
residence in attractive
places of Russia.
2.2 Compare features of developing and leading tourist destinations
Tourist Destination Leading Destination UK Developing Destination China
Cultural values and historical
facts of UK
In present time UK is one of
the significant destination
where celebrate numerous
festivals so as to present case
the concern towards the
cultural values and standards.
Furthermore there are various
Museums in UK that
persuades the arrivals to arrive
in the country for more than
one purpose. The UK tourism
provide benefits because there
are several activities like
music, cultural facts and food
varieties.
The tourism of china has broad
range from last few decades
from the beginning of reform
and opening. As per the year
2006 china has received about
49.7 million international
arrivals which made of China
as number fourth most visited
place. There are Chinese food
and music is most major
aspects that are like by people
and attract to come here.
Social Facts The Culture of UK has
fulfilled the needs of a
customer as per requirement.
They are providing their
values in systematic ways and
impress to visitors.
The cultural of china is far
different from other countries
because of there are customer
get attention and feel peace
and mediation features.
Physical Facts In UK, Flora and fauna
significant aspects for which
people like to visit other
There are facilities of
transportation have been
improved as compare to last
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country. There are another
factors that increases the
tourism in the UK for provide
better facility of transportation
and communication services
(Moutinho and Vargas-
Sanchez, 2018).
year and it is appeals the
customers as well. Moreover,
china is following new
technologies and devices
which can help the country for
produce new products in
electronic area.
TASK 3
3.1 Compare the appeal of current leading tourist destination with that of currently developing
tourist destinations
In this present context, the term tourist destination is a very important element as it helps
in influencing visitors across the globe. In addition to this, tourism activities are divided into
three elements such as tourists guests, host society as well as the environment. All these elements
are interlinked with each other and it affects the demand of tourism. The development of tourism
is totally based upon the characteristics of operating area. In this context, typology is a effective
tool and approach which helps in developing a plan for development of tourism at particular
place (Önder and Gunter, 2016) . As this tool aim is to identifying a various patterns related with
the demand and services of tourism such as the special effects. Along with this, tourists are
categorised with references to personality traits along with their behaviour. In addition with this,
tourist range is resolve in two extremes such as psychometric and all centric. There are two lies
related to mid century which is possessing to attributes and different features of both type in
proportional way which are discussed as below:
 Psycho-centric: In this category, when tourist destination falls as individuals followed
conservative approach win selection in effective manner. They are those individual who
feel safe at the time of visit that place and their is a tendency of revisiting that particular
place (Petrevska, 2012) . The another name these individuals are repeaters. These kind of
people mostly visit those place who re in nature, spectacular views as well as that kind of
places should be covered with natural beauties. In this present context, mostly US and
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UK countries influence visitors from all over the world to revisit these places again as,
they have natural wonders, historic landmarks including several entertainment venues.
 Allocentric: In this category, include those individuals who always wants to visit new
places. They consider only those places from where they get more thrill thrill and
adventure during the time of tourism. For example, Nepal is impacted visitors from all
over the world to visit this place again as, the following rivers plays an important part
for arranging water activities such as river rafting, parasailing, and so on.
 Mid centric: In this category, individuals selects a place according to their own choices
which provides them some unique memories and fun along with adventure and
entertainment. These kind of having features of both different personalities such as
allocentric and psycho-centric. In this present context, India is a best destination place for
those people who want both kind of activities. Like India is an archaeological destination
means palace and forts and also provides adventures and thrill such as rafting , tracking
and so on (Rosselló and Santana-Gallego, 2014) .
3.2 Characteristics of a tourist destination affect its appeal
There are various factors that appeal the customers towards tourism in both positive and
negative aspects and it is given as below:
 Economic: In UK their economic condition is very stable and it helps the country to
contribute or invent on various resources in different ways. In addition with this, mostly
their resources invest in travel and tourism sector and it helps the country to earn more
foreign currencies from different countries. Whereas economic condition of USA is also
enough stable as their resources are mostly invested in improving the service sector of
their nation.
 Physical: In Nepal, people are motley visited because of their good transportation and
networking facilities. As their communication channel is weak so, it creates hurdles for
other in connectivity. Whereas USA improved their communication chain which attracts
more countries towards and also it helps in making a connectivity with other countries.
 Social factors – There are including those social factors which can make different to
from another countries after the comparison (Smith, 2014). There has been analysed that
Burma and Nepal both are known as developing counties. They are trying to improve
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their living of standard and apply new technology in the subject to reduce level of
poverty. There are identified that mostly issues are related to health and safety.
TASK 4
4.1 Evaluate issues that affect the popularity of tourist destinations
There are identified different issues in tourist destination which can affect to popularity
of different counties which are discussed below -
 Natural disasters earthquake in Nepal (2015) – In the Nepal in the month of April,
2015, earthquake has been killed about to 9000 people so as a result it can reflect to
Nepal as bad way and destroyed all the places of Nepal. It can influence to travel and
tourism industry because of most of the heritage are destroyed and flights are cancelled.
It an affect to economy of the Nepal, so these are the part of the natural disaster and
affect to economic condition. The government of Nepal can spent much more money on
their tourism sector to provide all appropriate resources.
 Terrorism in Tunisian beach (2015) - Gumman seifeddine Rezugi can killed 38 people
at the resort of sousse and it was affect to tourism sector of Tunisia. Most of the hotels
targeted in attacks to evaluate tourism because they are focused as brothles by the ISIS
(Song and Witt, 2012) .
 World disease outbreak of swine flu in India (2015) - In India the disease of swine flu
has affected on large level and outbreak of infection disease. As a result it can affect to
economy of the India. Due to lack of medical facility people can died from the disease so
most of the tourist that time ignore to come India. It influences to tourism sector and on
the development. The visitors are like to visit in India in summer season due to swine flu.
4.2 The potential for responsible tourism to enhance the host community at world wide tourist
destinations
There are provide those future community that can expand to host community at the level
of world wide tourist destination -
 The different community hubs and schools are main basis from the point of view of
Nepal Earthquake (Sun, S. and et.al., 2019) . They are important place that are need to
repair because the government of Nepal can provide right step of new babies in their
normal life. The particular aim of the government to provide all suitable services
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regarding to children and allow families to return to work because most of the
participants further remonstration.
 Instantly after the terrorist attack on Tunisia beach, the flight JAF5017 came to redirect
the Brussels. In addition the operator of tour services can announce that due to terror
attack flight was cancelled regarding to safety. Many houses are discovered a minute of
silence so as to remember the victims.
 In the subject to provide safety from the Swine flu disease, government has provide
safety provision to their local citizens. It is expand in widely and commonly in polluted
and populated areas. Moreover campaigns are also arrange to provide public aware about
the epidemic (Swarbrooke and Page, 2012) .
CONCLUSION
As per the above report it has been concluded that in present time tourist destination is
important part because mostly peoples like to travelling. They are like to travel in different
countries according to their social, cultural aspects. It can affect to development of the country
and increase income status regarding to their local citizen. There are various issues and problems
arises due to travel and tourism which can affect to their income stability. Sometimes natural
disaster affect to country and their popularity.
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