Windows User Windows User Risk Management List of Figures 2 Question 1 3 1.1 Introduction 3 1.2 Decision Tree 5 1.3 Decision Tree with EVM 6 1.4 Discussion and calculation 7 61.5 Bayes Rule Outcomes 9

1 | P a g e
Windows User

Risk management
Table of Contents
List of figures................................................................................................................2
Question 1....................................................................................................................3
1.1 Introduction......................................................................................................3
1.2 Decision Tree......................................................................................................5
1.3 Decision Tree with EVM......................................................................................6
1.4 Discussion and calculation..................................................................................7
61.5 Bayes Rule Problem..........................................................................................9
1.6 Bayes Rule Outcomes......................................................................................10
2.0 Question 2............................................................................................................11
2.1 Objective............................................................................................................11
2.2 Original Data.....................................................................................................11
2.3 First Alteration with Discussion.........................................................................12
2.4 Second Alteration and Discussion....................................................................13
2.5 Final Alteration and Discussion.........................................................................14
3.0 Question 3............................................................................................................16
3.1 Problem statement............................................................................................16
3.2 Constraints........................................................................................................16
3.3 Objectives..........................................................................................................16
3.4 Equations..........................................................................................................16
3.5 Coordinates.......................................................................................................18

3.6 Graphical Illustration..........................................................................................19
3.6 Final number.....................................................................................................19
3.7 Spreadsheet solution........................................................................................20
4.0 Question 4...........................................................................................................21
4.1 Expected Activity...............................................................................................21
4.2 Excel model.......................................................................................................22
4.3 Network Diagram...............................................................................................23
4.4 Z value/ project finishing before 46 weeks........................................................23
4.5 Project lasting longer than 46 weeks................................................................24
4.6 Completion of project time where 85% of the project is complete....................24
4.7 Project Risk Exposure.......................................................................................24
Question 5..................................................................................................................26
Network project.......................................................................................................26
Appendices.................................................................................................................27

List of figures
Figure 1: Decision tree produced in Visio.....................................................................2
Figure 2: Decision Tree with EVM................................................................................3
Figure 3: Original excel model......................................................................................8
Figure 4: shows the excel model 2 with alteration.......................................................9
Figure 5: Shows excel 3 model with alteration...........................................................10
Figure 6: Shows the final excel model with alterations..............................................11
Figure 7 shows the illustration of Constraints.............................................................16
Figure 8 shows the spreadsheet solution with solver.................................................17
Figure 9 shows the Excel Model and PERT analysis.................................................19
Figure 10 Network diagram with critical path.............................................................20
Figure 11 shows the critical path for the project.........................................................20
Figure 12 Network Project..........................................................................................23

Question 1
1.1 Introduction
The main motive of this report is to build an EMV and a decision tree for
determining if the organization ABC submit a bid to give computer systems to
win contract. The main points in establishment of the decision tree is to reduce
the cost of manufacturing laptops and also to provide a competitive advantage
over the competitor Complex computer bid.

Figure 1: Decision tree produced in Visio
1.2 Decision Tree
6 | P a g e