Global Energy Resources: Differences between Projections and Current Usage

The time between 1950 and 2019 has seen many changes in the world in terms of economy, politics, and technology, which have had a significant impact on the usage of global energy resources. The projections made in the 1970s on energy consumption and supply have significantly differed from the current projections made in the 21st century. The rise in demand, price, and consumption of coal, crude oil, natural gas, and nuclear energy has been affected by economic growth, technological advancements, and governmental policies.

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Executive Summary
The world energy resources demand and consumption is increased in the global arena, which has
resulted in the differences between world energy supply survey conducted in during 1970’s and
the survey conducted in the 2nd decade of the 21st century. In the case of coal, crude oil, nuclear
and natural gas the increase in demand, price and consumption has different results in
comparison to projections made earlier and now. Economic growth is also observed as one of the
major forces that have created an impact on the usage of these world energy resources. The
growth of energy consumption from the Asia Pacific will contribute to 65% of the total energy
demand supply. The countries to be rising in the energy consumption are Middle East, Africa,
Central and South America. The more current stages of global development reflect that
governments and nations are shifting their focus to acquiring more renewable sources of energy.
Energy sources like Hydropower, solar power, wind power and bio-fuel power are being used to
support the energy needs in the developed nations.
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Table of Contents
Table of Contents.............................................................................................................................2
Introduction......................................................................................................................................3
Differences between earlier projections and current energy usage:................................................6
Coal and lignite............................................................................................................................6
Crude oil and NGL......................................................................................................................7
Natural Gas..................................................................................................................................8
Nuclear.........................................................................................................................................8
Hydro and Nuclear.......................................................................................................................9
Hydro...........................................................................................................................................9
Inexhaustible..............................................................................................................................10
Total energy consumptions........................................................................................................10
Conclusion.....................................................................................................................................11
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Introduction
The global energy has been going through a transformation as there has been an increase in
electrification for expansion of renewable energy, oil productions and globalised natural gas
sector. It has evaluated that the choices of policies made by different governmental bodies are
observed as major reasons for changing the shape of global energy resources. There has been a
prediction made from 1960 to 2050 over usage of energy resources, which seems different in
comparison to current predictions made by international energy agencies (Facts, 2019). The
following two images are from 1978 and 2010 projections on energy consumption and supply
and demand.
Table 1: World possible energy supply and demand 1950-2050 from
(Source: Ion, 1975)
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Table 2: World marketed Energy consumption (quadrillion btu)
(Source: Birol, 2010)
The below two diagram shows projections made in the 2nd decade of 21st Century.
Figure 1: Projection on energy use till 2040
(Source: Eia, 2019)
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Figure 2: Changes in Energy demand in developing and advanced economies
(Source: Iea, 2019)
A significant difference is there between the use energy resources and the projections made. The
main reasons behind the changes and the pattern of projection on the usage of energy sources is
due to the factors related with sustainable developments, new policies and current policies over
global energy resources (Sieminski, 2014). There has been a difference in the survey made by
world energy supply in the year of 1978 and world energy outlook 2018, which is highlighted in
the following study. The report provides a brief explanation and mystification of expected causes
and reasons for changes in the results formed in 1978 and 2018 over the global energy resource
usage.
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Differences between earlier projections and current energy usage:
There are a number of reasons which affect the use of energy globally. One reason is country’s
economy and another is the availability of advanced technologies. The use of energy resources
has significantly changed in advanced and developing countries. The following shows the
reasons behind the differences in projections in energy usage of each type of energy sources:
Coal and lignite
The study made in the year of 2018 shows that there might be low usage of coal and lignite by
the end of 2050 in comparison to survey that is made in earlier years. It has been evaluated that
the differences might be due to less consumption of coal for public and professional purposes,
which has reduced the estimated usage of these resources according to the present survey (Iea,
2019).
Figure 3: Coal Demand and supply in the upcoming years
(Source: Iea, 2019)
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It has stated that due to economical down run, the coal consumption estimated to fall by 3.1%.
The increase or decreased consumption of coal is depended over the rise and fall of the global
economy. Thus, it could be evaluated that differences between the estimated consumption of coal
and lignite in the late twentieth century and the 21st century is due to the performance level of the
global economy (Chang, Lee and Yoon, 2012). In addition, there has been a rise in the
consumption of coal in the major countries such as India, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia.
Crude oil and NGL
According to the International Energy Agency, the price and demand for crude oil are
continuously rising. However, the growth of particular energy resources are stated moderate due
to the introduction of new policies and technologies, and these provide greater efficiency for
crude oil and NGL in the market. By the end of 2040, the crude oil pricing estimated to get
doubled which is $112 per barrel (Iea, 2019). The usage of crude oil estimated to increase by the
end of 2050 as per current survey analysis, which states increased consumption of the crude oil
as predicted as in 1975 (Ion, 1975). This is due to the pace increase in the demand for crude oil
in the global market. The crude oil and NGL market are highly affected by climatic stabilisation,
which has emerged a high level of volatility and uncertainty in the usage and performance of
crude oil (Peakoilbarrel, 2019). However, from the present survey results of 2018, it has
expected that there are changes of usage of the oil in the near future, which is increased
consumption value of the particular resources that has created a difference in projections
conducted earlier and in recent years, especially in the recently concluded survey on energy
resource use.
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Natural Gas
According to the survey analysis of the present year of 2018, it is expected that the consumption
and usage of natural gas might increase by the end of 2050. The conception value dictates higher
in comparison to the survey value made by world energy supply in the year of 1978. The
increased usage of natural gas by 1.7% has highlighted in the present year of 2017. There has
been a huge rise in the demand for natural gas and China being one of the highest consumers of
these specific resources, including this solar PV and low carbon technologies has emerged in the
market (seekingalpha, 2019). Thus, the emergence of technologies and governmental policies
and rise in demand might have lead to differences in the consumption value surveyed in the year
of 1978 and 2017 (Harjanne and Korhonen, 2019). It could be observed that the present survey
has analysed including the technological emergences in the global natural resources, which has
estimated the rise of consumption of natural gas by the end of 2050.
Nuclear
The world energy supply of 1978 has evaluated that the estimated usage of nuclear energy by the
end of 2050 has estimated 6600, which is estimated to increase by 13000 as per the survey
analysis made by International Energy Agency in the year of 2017. It states that it is an estimated
sharp rise in the consumption and usage of nuclear energy by the end of 2050. As per the
analysis, an estimated 41% increase in expected in the consumption of nuclear energy by the end
of 2040 (Iea, 2019). The developed countries are in focus to decline generation of nuclear energy
by decommissioning different nuclear plants, whereby the developing countries have became
more interested in generating nuclear energy for using the energy for different erasure production
such as power, energy and electricity. The number of developing countries is higher, which
might have resulted in increases consumption and usage of nuclear energy. The countries like
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Middle East countries, India, China are major producers and consumers of nuclear energy (Iea,
2019). It is expected that the increased usage and production of nuclear energy is the reason
behind differences in the consumption values of survey made in the year of 1978 and in the
current year of 2018.
Hydro and Nuclear
The consumption of hydro and nuclear power increased from 29 Mtoe to 139 Mtoe from 1950 to
1974. These are two of the common forms of sources used for consumption in order to generate
electricity. The cost of generation of nuclear and hydropower are quite inexpensive, for which
these two sources are widely used. However, a large investment is required in building the power
plant, which is not possible for low-income countries. Many have raised concern over the
changes in climatic conditions of the host country for which many countries have invested in
nuclear and hydrogen power plants since no greenhouse gas emissions are produced. The
availability of uranium, which is abundant, reduces the cost of maintenance (Wolfe, 2017).
However, the drawbacks of such power plants are that the by-product generated is highly toxic
and difficult to dispose of. Similarly, the drawback of hydropower plants is that the dam built to
generate electricity might influence the natural ecosystem of the area around. The growing
consciousness among the world government regarding the reduction of combustible sources of
energy and greenhouse gas depletion is the reason why the electrical power sources are shifting
towards hydrogen and nuclear powers.
Hydro
In the case of hydropower, the usage has increased from 300 Mtoe to 1500 Mtoe from 1985 to
2050. This could be deduced since the technology at that time was not as sophisticated as current
times. In addition to that the transport and trading services are well governed today than it was
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thirty years prior (Mahlia et al. 2014). The first commercial hydropower facility in the USA was
established in 1882 in Appleton, Wisconsin. Nowadays every state in the US utilises the
hydropower plants for electricity. 70% of the electricity sources in Washington is generated from
Hydropower plant, and other 11 states obtain 10% of their power source. 7% of the electricity
used by the US in total is obtained from hydroelectric sources. It also contributes to 50% of the
electricity generated from renewable sources of energy in the US (Conti et al. 2016).
Inexhaustible
Iea (2019) estimated that by 2040, the demand for the dependence on the inexhaustible sources
of energy including hydropower, wind, solar, marine, geothermal and biofuels would increase
81%. The researchers also estimated that this would account for 20% of all sources of energy
demand in the world. Among all other inexhaustible sources, solar power is the largest growing
power sources and is expected to increase to approximately 9% from 2017 to 2040. In the same
timeframe, the wind energy is growing at a fast rate and will increase to 4% from 2017. Bio-fuels
are the most preferred choices of inexhaustible energy and account for 70% of all the types of
energy sources. The growth of biofuel generated power will grow to 51% until 2040. Mainly the
developing nations are expected to adopt a variety of renewable energy sources and contribute to
69% of the growth.
Total energy consumptions
The data provided shows that from 1950 to 2075 the total world consumption of energy would be
1812 Mtoe to about 58,500 Mtoe. The total energy consumption in the world is expected to grow
27% of the current consumption value, which is 3,743 million Mtoe within 2017-2040. Some of
the countries have collectively decided to lower their energy consumption as seen in the case of
the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. The OECD
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countries have aimed to reduce 4% of their energy consumption by 2040, which makes about
230 Mtoe. This initiative to reduce their bunker fuels will decrease from 36% to 30% and
consecutively lower the energy burden. Other developing nations have estimated to increase their
combined energy demand to 45%, which makes about 3,743 Mtoe. This will contribute to the
increase of the globe every demand 64% to 70% of the developing nations. Researchers
estimated that 65% of the demand for the energy supply of the developing nation would be due
to the Asia Pacific region with respect to their economic growth. China will increase its
consumption by 26%, South East Asia will increase to 67%, and India will double its
consumption value until 2040 (Iea, 2019). Other countries like Central and South America will
grow 26%, Africa will grow 52%, and Middle Eastern countries will grow 67% of their energy
consumption by 2040 (Iea, 2019). The growth of the industries and technological advancement
has created demand for energy supply over the course of time (Mahlia et al. 2014).
Transportation, trading, development of lifestyles and growth of scientific technology requires
energy consumption for which the world energy consumption increased as per the previous
estimation in 1950.
Conclusion
The time between 1950 and 2019 has seen many changes in the world in terms of economy,
politics, society and technology. These factors have influenced the changes in the demand for a
large quantity of energy in the world. The prediction between estimations made in the 1950s
regarding energy consumptions and present estimations on energy use seems to differ in great
manner. The increasing demand for technological and industrial growth by developed as well as
developing nations led to an increase in the energy consumptions. Recently dependence of
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renewable sources of energy has increased awareness among the national diplomatic units.
Initiates are being taken by developed nations to reduce their energy consumption and implement
inexhaustible energy supply technology to protect the future of civilisation. However, better
ecologically sustainable methods of consuming energy need to be discovered to replenish the
exhaustible energy sources.
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