Lakehead University: Hindsight Bias Meta-Analysis Article Synopsis

This report provides a synopsis of the scientific article "Age Differences in Hindsight Bias: A Meta-Analysis" by Groß and Pachur. The meta-analysis, encompassing nine studies with 366 young and 368 older adults, investigates how aging impacts hindsight bias, which is the tendency to overestimate one's ability to have predicted an outcome after it has already occurred. The authors examine two sources of this bias: recollection bias and reconstruction bias. The study indicates that older adults, due to weakened episodic memory, take longer to recall answers compared to younger individuals. The meta-analysis highlights the cognitive decline associated with aging, particularly in episodic memory and fluid intelligence, while crystalized intelligence remains stable or even increases. The limitations of the study are identified as the smaller size of the chosen studies. The synopsis concludes that the article contributes valuable insights for future research on cognitive aging and memory processes.

Running Head: AGE DIFFERENCES IN HINDSIGHT BIAS
Age Differences in Hindsight Bias: A Meta-Analysis
Scientific Article Synopsis
Abrielle Tempeny
GERO/PSYC-4151-WA
Lakehead University
Professor: Dr. Joshua Armstrong
15 March 2019

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Age Differences in Hindsight Bias: A Scientific Article Synopsis
In "Age Difference in Hindsight Bias: A Meta-Analysis", Julia GroB and Thorsten
Pachur consider nine different studies (published and un-published) that aim to investigate
hindsight bias with a total of 366 young individuals and 368 older adults. The purpose of the
meta-analysis was to incorporate these studies together to find reliable results because the
individual studies had mixed findings. The authors explain that there is cognitive decline with
ageing individuals in many areas except one. Older adults’ episodic memory is weakened and
their fluid intelligence is reduced, but their crystalized intelligence does not decline, and can
actually increase (Grob, Pachur, pg.296, 2019).
The authors of the article shed further light on the issues that are faced by the older adults
in the matters that are related to the recollection bias. The older adults face a distortion when
they tend to recollect the original judgements that were presented within the given organization.
The older adults face these issues when they have knowledge of the correct answer yet have been
trying to recall the judgement. This leads to the impairment of the process of the recalling and
are thus known to have been leading to the recollection bias within the concerned people. The
failure to recollect the judgement that was initially presented in the given case. It is during this
time that they tend to reconstruct the concerned judgement. In a number of cases, the person is
observed to deliver a reconstructed version of the judgement in that is biased with the details of
the correct answer that is already known to the concerned person. This is known to have been
creating a distortion due to the anchoring effect.
The knowledge of the correct answer might also lead to the updating of the knowledge
base which in turn leads to the bias in the rejudgment of the issue. The distortion that is formed

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due to this is known to be the reconstruction bias. The studies that were conducted by the authors
were based on the comparison between the young and the older adults.
The studies that were considered for the meta-analysis had included the raw data that was
collected for the development of the study. The major finding of the article states that the older
adults are observed to take up a longer time in the recollection of the answers as compared to the
younger ones. According to the authors, due to a weakened episodic memory; older adults should
have a harder time recalling their answers than younger individuals. The major limitations of the
article lie in the smaller size of the relevant studies that were chosen for the completion of the
meta-analysis. The authors had considered both unpublished and published studies for the
composition of the article as well as had based the meta-analysis on the raw data that was
collected from the studies that were considered.
In conclusion to the synopsis, it might be opined that the article had put forth the major factors in
a proper manner. This helped in the development of the paper that would assist the future
researchers in their studies.

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References
Groß, J., & Pachur, T. (2019). Age differences in hindsight bias: A meta-analysis.Psychology
and Aging, 34(2), 294-310. Available at DOI: 10.1037/pag0000329