Airbus Global Market Forecast and Demand Analysis: 2020 and Beyond

The Airbus Global Market Forecast report analyzes the future of the aviation industry, focusing on market trends and demand. The report highlights increasing global air traffic, driven by factors like growing economies and improving living standards, with a particular emphasis on the Asia-Pacific region's growth. It predicts a rise in passenger numbers and a significant demand for new aircraft, especially smaller aircraft types. The report also addresses the increasing demand for air cargo and freighter aircraft due to the growth of e-commerce. The analysis uses data and predictions from industry experts to support its findings, concluding that the aviation market will experience consistent growth, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, with China expected to surpass the US as the largest aviation market. The report also references data from Airbus, IATA, and other industry sources.

2020
Airbus global market forecast
SystemJP

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Table of Contents
Introduction...........................................................................................................................................2
Future market forecast and demand.......................................................................................................2
Future aircraft growth............................................................................................................................2
Conclusion.............................................................................................................................................3
References.............................................................................................................................................4

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Introduction
Market forecasting and demand is required to develop strategies to achieve
organisational goals and objectives in long-run. Forecasting can be done based on past
industry data or based on certain assumptions. The report is focused on analysing the
quantitative data that has been predicted by the industry experts with respect to the
development of the global aviation industry.
Future market forecast and demand
The global air traffic volume is increasing with 4.2 % in 2019, and around 4.2 % in
2020. As per the statistics and the industry demands it is predicted that the air traffic will
maintain a positive growth rate up to 2030 (Mazareanu, 2019). International Air Transport
Association reveals that the numbers of the passenger within the aviation industry could rise
up to 8.2 billion till 2037 which is double of the current air traffic (IATA, 2018). The drivers
such as growing economies, improving living standards, increasing competition within the
industry has resulted in an increase in global air traffic.
As per the data shared by IATA, China, US, India, Indonesia and Turkey will be
among the fastest-growing markets having a high number of passengers in 2036. As per the
regional data, Europe, North America, Middle East and Latin America will grow in terms of
the air traffic by the end of 2036 (IATA, 2017). Airbus is required to focus on the increasing
air traffic, the increase in the air traffic will mostly emerge from the Asia-Pacific region, and
as predicted China will overtake the US aviation by 2024, and India will displace the UK by
2025 (Rosen, 2017). Airbus has predicted the demand for 39,210 aircraft over the next 20
years (Airbus, 2019).
Future aircraft growth
The aircraft industry will experience a growth in terms of the aircraft requirements,
the report presented by Airbus agrees that the large aircraft will show a low increase as
compared to the small aircraft. As the small aircraft will represent around 76% of new aircraft
deliveries whereas large segment will represent around 24% of the aircraft deliveries.
Passenger aircraft will account for approx. 37,000 aircraft in the next 20 years and the biggest
share in the deliveries will be accounted for by the Asia-Pacific region (SATAIR, 2019).
Airfreight is expected to increase by 3% year-over-year, which will increase the demand for

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the air cargo aircraft, with the increasing preference towards e-commerce the cargo revenue
will also increase within the nations (Air Charter Service, 2019).
The developing freighter market will require more conversion of the cargo aircraft.
Airbus predicts that till 2037 an additional 1560 conversions will be required within the
industry. Such figures effectively support that the manufacturer will require to focus on the
increasing requirements of the aircraft within the industry, the small aircraft will be leading
the industry as compared to the large aircraft, also with the increase in the e-commerce and
the air freight the demand for the cargo aircraft is expected to rise in future (Whaley, 2019).
Conclusion
The forecast within the global market represents that the industry will experience
constant growth year-over-year and mostly in the region of Asia-pacific. As the countries
within the region are under developing stage, China is expected to overtake US aviation to
become the world’s biggest aviation industry. The growing economies and improving living
standards are the key drivers that drive the growth of the aviation industry.

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References
Air Charter Service. (2019, July 08). Eye On The Horizon: A Look At The Future Of The Air
Cargo Industry. Retrieved from Air Charter Service:
https://www.aircharterservice.co.in/about-us/news-features/blog/eye-on-the-horizon-
a-look-at-the-future-of-the-air-cargo-industry
Airbus. (2019). Global Market Forecast. Airbus.
IATA. (2017, October 24). 2036 Forecast Reveals Air Passengers Will Nearly Double to 7.8
Billion. Retrieved from IATA: https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2017-10-24-01/
IATA. (2018, October 24). IATA Forecast Predicts 8.2 billion Air Travelers in 2037.
Retrieved from IATA: https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2018-10-24-02/
Mazareanu, E. (2019, December 11). Global air traffic - annual growth of passenger demand
2006-2020. Retrieved from Statista:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/193533/growth-of-global-air-traffic-passenger-
demand/
Rosen, E. (2017, June 20). As Billions More Fly, Here’s How Aviation Could Evolve.
Retrieved from National Geographic:
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/urban-expeditions/transportation/
air-travel-fuel-emissions-environment/
SATAIR. (2019, January 09). Market outlook 2017-2037: A glimpse of the future. Retrieved
from SATAIR: https://blog.satair.com/market-outlook-aviation-industry
Whaley, J. (2019, January 23). IBA’s Freighter Conversion Whitepaper, January 2019.
Retrieved from IBA: https://www.iba.aero/insight/ibas-freighter-conversion-
whitepaper-january-2019