Alpaka.io: Discounted Cash Flow and Earnings Valuation Report

This report provides a comprehensive financial analysis of Alpaka.io, a five-year-old software startup. The analysis employs the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Earnings Multiple methods to determine the company's valuation under various scenarios. The report includes detailed calculations and assumptions for each case, considering factors such as Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), growth rates, and industry averages. The analysis explores potential exit strategies, including IPOs and strategic sales, based on the different valuation results. Furthermore, it discusses alternative investment avenues, such as angel investors, venture capitalists, and loans, to assess the company's expansion possibilities. The report concludes with a discussion of caveats and limitations, offering a well-rounded view of Alpaka.io's financial position and future prospects.

Running head: ALPAKA ANALYSIS
Alpaka Analysis
Name of the Student:
Name of the University:
Author Note:

1ALPAKA ANALYSIS
Table of Contents
Introduction:...............................................................................................................................2
Discussion:.................................................................................................................................2
Discounted Cash Flow and Earnings Method:.......................................................................2
Discounted Cash Flow Case 1:..........................................................................................2
Earnings Multiple Method Case 1:....................................................................................4
Discounted Cash Flow Case 2:..........................................................................................5
Earnings Multiple Method Case 2:....................................................................................7
Discounted Cash Flow Case 3:..........................................................................................8
Earnings Multiple Method Case 3:....................................................................................9
Exit strategy:........................................................................................................................10
Case 1:..............................................................................................................................10
Case 2:..............................................................................................................................11
Case 3:..............................................................................................................................11
Caveats:............................................................................................................................11
Other Investment Avenues:..................................................................................................12
Conclusion:..............................................................................................................................12
References:...............................................................................................................................14

2ALPAKA ANALYSIS
Introduction:
The Company Alpaka.io is a start-up company which had been in operation from the
past 5 years. The company is based in New South Wales and England and has been providing
Software services to various Companies. The Calender management service which the
company provides is the sole generator of revenue for the company. It enhances the
production and management of the companies which are taking the service from this
company. Since the software which is provided by the company enables the company to be
flexible in its services such that the companies which it caters to are never dissatisfied with its
services (alpaka.io).
In the following report the valuation of the company after 3 years is analysed using
the discounted cash flow method and the earnings multiple method. The valuation is
conducted to analyse the relevant exit strategies for the company which it can undertake after
3 years. Different scenarios and valuations are incorporated with the different stock price
which is expected after 3 years.
Discussion:
Discounted Cash Flow and Earnings Method:
Discounted Cash Flow Case 1:
The discounted cash flow is the discounting of the expected cash flows at a relevant
discount rate to analyse the present value of the company. Thus the free cash flow for the
firm is calculated using the formula,
FCFF= Net Income+Depreciation+int *(1-tax rate)- Capex -Changes in working capital

3ALPAKA ANALYSIS
Thus this equation is utilized in the calculation of the free cash flow for the firm and
the terminal value is calculated using the FCFF for the 5th Year which is multiplied with the
growth rate. This is discounted with the WACC less Growth rate and the value is added to the
FCFF of the 5th year which is 2021. Thus the calculation of the FCFF is highlighted below,
Figure 1:
Source:
Assumptions:
 The WACC for the calculation of the valuation of the company is taken as 30%.
 The 28.01% which is taken is the growth rate of the sales of the company and is
assumed to be the growth rate for the net profit of the company.
 The interest rate is taken as 0 since the company has no long term debt in the balance
sheet.
 The capital expenditure is assumed to be 0 and the company is neither Purchasing nor
selling any of its assets.
 No changes in the Working Capital is assumed for the company.

4ALPAKA ANALYSIS
The following figure highlights the NPV valuation of the company which has been calculated
using the following assumptions,
Figure 2:
Source:
The NPV of the company is pound 244096.85 and thus the company can expect to
raise a minimum value at this level (Smith Driver and Matthews 2018).
Earnings Multiple Method Case 1:
Assumptions:
The following Assumptions are undertaken for the earnings multiple method which
are highlighted in the following points,
 The number of shares which the company has is not provided hence an assumption of
300000 shares is assumed.
 The price of the shares is not provided as the company is not listed hence the price is
calculated using the net present value of the company divided by the number of
shares.
 The Earnings per share is calculated by dividing the earnings by the number of shares.
 The industry average for the software Service Providing Company is taken as 33.321
and is expected to remain same.

5ALPAKA ANALYSIS
Figure 3:
Source:
The PE ratio in 2018 is calculated as 48.81 which is overvalued for the company since
the industry average is 33.321. The per share price of the share if it had been a listed
company is pound 0.81. The expected share price of the company in 2021 is expected to
be pound 1.16 which is multiplied with number of shares to get the valuation of the
company to be pound 349477.91 (Boularhmane and Aboulaich 2016).
Discounted Cash Flow Case 2:
Assumptions:
 The assumptions which are undertaken in the analysis 1 is mostly the same with few
exceptions.
 The Weighted Average cost of capital of the company is taken as 15%.
 The growth rate is taken as 10% which is on the basis of the FTSE 100 index return
which it had provided over the past years.
Thus the Calculation of the Free Cash Flow for the firm and the terminal value is
highlighted in the figure below,

6ALPAKA ANALYSIS
Figure 4:
Source:
Thus the cash flows have been increased at a growth rate of 28.01% in 2018 while it
has been increased at 10% after 2018. The Terminal value for the firm is calculated at pound
205950 which has reduced from the analysis in case 1 (Copiello 2016). The following figure
highlights the calculation of the net present value which is calculated using the above
mentioned assumptions.
Figure 5:
Source:

7ALPAKA ANALYSIS
The net present value calculated using the 15% discount rate provides the net present
value of pound 130428.49. Thus the valuation of the company has fallen by taking a lower
growth rate and lower weighted average cost of capital (Le 2017).
Earnings Multiple Method Case 2:
Assumptions:
 The NPV which is calculated using Discounted Cash flow in case 2 as taken as the
valuation of the company at the present date which is pound 130428.49.
 The share price of the share based on the above valuation is pound 0.43.
 The price earnings ratio of the company is at the level of 26.08.
Figure 6:
Source:
Thus the Earnings per share is taken as pound 0.02 for the year 2018, while the
growth rate of earnings is at 10%, hence the Earnings per share of the company has changed
from the previous analysis. The share price of the company in 2021 which is calculated using
the earnings per share of 2021 and multiplying by the industry average gives the value of
pound 0.74 per share. Thus the valuation of the company when the expected share price is

8ALPAKA ANALYSIS
multiplied with the number of shares gives the value of pound 221751.26. At the current
price earnings ratio of 26.08 the company seems to be under-priced when compared with the
industry average (Shittu Ahmad and Ishak 2018).
Discounted Cash Flow Case 3:
Assumptions:
 The assumption of WACC is taken as 20% based on the cost of capital of similar
companies.
 The growth rate of 13% is taken on the basis of growth rate of the comparable
companies.
 The remaining assumption for the valuation of the company are assumed to be
constant and hence no changes are made to other values of the company.
The following figure highlights the value of the firm value and the terminal value using
the following assumptions mentioned above.
Figure 7:
Source:

9ALPAKA ANALYSIS
The net income for the company has grown at the rate of 13% from 2018 while the
WACC is 20%. The terminal value for the company at the time of exit in the year 2021 is
pound 158990.97. The following figure highlights the net present value of the company if it
uses any of its exit strategy today (Janda 2019).
Figure 8:
Source:
The value of the company at the present date is pound 89183.84 if it plans to exit
business in the current year. Thus the potential buyer would most likely pay pound 89183.84.
Earnings Multiple Method Case 3:
Assumptions:
 The share price of the company at the current valuation should be pound 0.3.
 The valuation assumption is taken from the value derived from the discounted cash
flow case 3.

10ALPAKA ANALYSIS
Figure 9:
Source:
The valuation of the company using the earnings multiple method tends to provide a
value of pound 240393.85. The share price which is expected from the company at the end of
2021 should be around pound 0.8. The level of Price Earnings ratio highlights that the
company is currently under-priced (Yin Peasnell and Hunt III 2018).
Exit strategy:
Case 1:
As per the discounted cash flow method the company is currently valued at pound
244096.85. Also since the company has 300000 shares issued among the directors, the
directors can dilute their stake by selling it in an IPO or to a strategic buyer.
The IPO is a feasible option at this level since the valuation as per the earnings
multiple method tends to provide a value of pound 349477.91. Thus the company value lies
at the range between pound 244096.85 – 349477.91. Thus the company can go for an IPO
and exit the business creating a value for the directors as per case 1 (Zhang and Gimeno
2016).

11ALPAKA ANALYSIS
Case 2:
As per Case 2 the valuation of the company lies between pound 130428.49 –
221751.26. Thus the company can consider the strategic buying option since the IPO at such
low valuation tend to be not feasible for the company. Also since the valuation is so low as
per the case 2, a strategic buyer will tend to pay a higher amount to the directors as it would
provide a benefit to the strategic buyer (Kunal Katti and Phani 2018).
The benefit which will be present with the strategic buyer who is in the same line of
business will get the necessary infrastructure which would be required to its business. Thus
this will provide additional support to the already existing infrastructure. Thus a strategic
buyer will tend to pay more to the directors. However, financial buyer can also be considered
but the extra money would not be available to the directors (Jiao Wang and Chen 2018).
Case 3:
As per case 3 the valuation of the company is present in a long range between pound
89183.84 to 240393.85. Thus the company can exit the business by IPO, Strategic sale or
liquidation of the assets. The liquidation of the company is being considered although the
value is positive because of the higher range, since this might lead to the generation of a
value which is greater than pound 89183.84 (Kim 2017).
The IPO is considered as the company has a very high valuation at pound 240393.85,
which is feasible for an IPO. However, further analysis needs to be considered for
undertaking the IPO strategy and the strategic sale of business as per this case (Aktas Andres
and Ozdakak 2018).
Caveats:
 Management buyout as an option is not considered as it is assumed that the funding
in the start-up is undertaken by the management itself.

12ALPAKA ANALYSIS
 The analysis is purely based on the current market circumstances which is subject to
change in the future with the change in economic conditions.
 The financial statements of 2017 and 2018 were only available to analyse the
financial condition of the company, hence if the financial statement 2014, 2015 and
2016 were provided the analysis can change for the company.
Other Investment Avenues:
The above valuation is conducted if the company plans to exit the business at present
or in near future. However, the company can also expand its operations if it plans to raise
funds through the following ways,
 The directors can approach angel investors or venture capitalists who upon analysing
the company business and future prospects can provide funds by undertaking stakes in
the company. However, the venture capitalist would require a controlling stake and
the directors might have to sell their stakes and ownership in the company (Jin Wu
and Hitt 2017).
 As per the 2017 and 2018 balance sheet the company has no long term debt and thus
can approach relevant financial institutions for taking loan which would be provided
at a low rates depending on the financial condition of the company. This would lead
to a change in the WACC of the company and thus ultimately the valuation of the
company.
Conclusion:
Thus it is concluded in the above report after the valuation of the company using the
discounted cash flow method and the earnings multiple method that the company can either
exit using IPO, Strategic sale or liquidation. The management buyout is ruled out as the
directors of the company are the primary fund providers to the company. The analysis is

13ALPAKA ANALYSIS
based on a number of assumptions which needs to be considered when making a decision
since if the assumption changes the conclusion of the analysis might change. Also the
company has a wide range of avenues to raise funds to expand its business which can be
considered if the company plans to expand its operations.

14ALPAKA ANALYSIS
References:
Aktas, N., Andres, C. and Ozdakak, A., 2018. The Interplay of IPO and M&A Markets.
In The Oxford Handbook of IPOs (p. 201). Oxford University Press.
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ethical principles to discounted cash flow method. International Journal of Economics and
Financial Issues, 6(3), pp.1254-1261.
Copiello, S., 2016. A Discounted Cash Flow variant to detect the optimal amount of
additional burdens in Public-Private Partnership transactions. MethodsX, 3, pp.195-204.
Islam, M., Fremeth, A. and Marcus, A., 2018. Signaling by early stage startups: US
government research grants and venture capital funding. Journal of Business
Venturing, 33(1), pp.35-51.
Janda, K., 2019. Earnings Stability and Peer Company Selection for Multiple Based Indirect
Valuation. Finance a Uver: Czech Journal of Economics & Finance, 69(1).
Jiao, H., Wang, T. and Chen, J., 2018, March. CEO Exit after IPO: Which Wealth Matters?.
In 2018 IEEE International Symposium on Innovation and Entrepreneurship (TEMS-
ISIE) (pp. 1-8). IEEE.
Jin, F., Wu, A. and Hitt, L., 2017, January. Social Is the New Financial: How Startup Social
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not to lose: Closing the gender gap in startup funding. Academy of Management
Journal, 61(2), pp.586-614.

15ALPAKA ANALYSIS
Kim, D.S., 2017. The Dependence on the New Venture on CVC and IVC, and Its Likelihood
of Exit Through IPO. In Academy of Management Proceedings (Vol. 2017, No. 1, p. 15948).
Briarcliff Manor, NY 10510: Academy of Management.
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performance: evidence from Indian IPOs. International Journal of Accounting and
Finance, 8(1), pp.38-59.
Le, A., 2017. Equity Valuation Using Discounted Cash Flow Method-A case study: Viking
Line Ltd.
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directors compensation, corporate governance disclosure and price to earnings multiple of
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Alpaka (2020). Available at: https://alpaka.io/ (Accessed: 3 January 2020).
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Discounted Cash Flow. Journal of Accounting & Finance (2158-3625), 18(7).
Yin, Y., Peasnell, K. and Hunt III, H.G., 2018. How do sell-side analysts obtain price-
earnings multiples to value firms?. Accounting and Business Research, 48(1), pp.108-135.
Zhang, Y. and Gimeno, J., 2016. Earnings pressure and long-term corporate governance: Can
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