A Comprehensive Analysis of the US-China Trade War's Economic Effects

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the trade war between the United States and China, focusing on its effects on the global economic structure in both the short and long term. It examines the causes of the trade war, including unfair trade practices, intellectual property theft, and trade deficits, which led to the imposition of tariffs and trade restrictions by both countries. The report delves into the escalation of the trade conflict, the impact of increased tariffs on overall trade, and the effects on GDP growth. It also assesses how initiatives by central banks and other factors, such as supply chain disruptions and investment uncertainties, have influenced the global economy. The analysis includes data on trade percentages of GDP, balance of trade, and the implications of the US-China trade deal. The report also considers the potential for global recession and the effects of the trade war on various countries, including the US, China, and the EU, providing a detailed overview of the economic consequences and future outlook.

Running head: TRADE WAR BETWEEN US AND CHINA
Trade War between US and China
Name of the Student
Name of the University
Author note

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This paper intends to analyse the effects of the trade war on the global economic structure in
short as well as long term. Moreover, the unfair trade practices by the China forced the US to put
trade restriction on the China. This paper also examines the influence of escalation of trade
conflict on two major economies of the world as well. It emphasizes on the impacts of the
increases in the tariffs on the overall trade of the countries. This paper assesses the plunge caused
by the trade uncertainty on the global GDP growth and how the initiatives taken by the central
banks of the countries may contribute to negate the aftermath of the trade war on the global
growth. There are several forces that intensified the trade uncertainty and turmoil of the global
economy, other than trade restrictions. This paper also taken into consideration those forces to
understand the impacts of the trade conflict.

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Table of Contents
Introduction......................................................................................................................................3
Discussion........................................................................................................................................4
Trade war between US and China...............................................................................................4
The effects of the trade war on global economic structure..........................................................9
Conclusion.....................................................................................................................................14
References......................................................................................................................................16

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Introduction
An economic conflict in response to trade restrictions imposed by other party results in
extreme protectionism in terms of creating or raising tariffs and other trade restrictions against
one another is known as trade war (Yong, 2019). The output combinations of the participating
nations in trade war reaches autarky position, where both countries minimize the influence of the
international trade or external assistance. Hence, the trade war impacts participating countries in
trade war along with other countries of the world. One of the major ongoing trade war is between
two biggest economies of the world the Unite States (US) and China. The US is the largest
economy in terms of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) (Usa.gov, 2020).
Moreover, the highly developed country US is the second largest economy in terms of
purchasing power parity. On the other hand, the China is the largest economy in terms of
purchasing power parity. It is also second largest economy in terms of nominal GDP (Gov.cn,
2020). As per the value, US is the largest and second largest importer and exporter of the world
respectively. On the contrary, the China is the largest and second largest exporter and importer
of the world respectively as per value of trade. Therefore, international trade plays a vital role in
the prospect and growth of the US and China. Likewise, the economic conflict between the US
and China impacts the international trade among two countries. The trade war started by the US
government led by the president Donald Trump in protests of unfair trade practices by the
government of China in 2008. To control the unfair trade practices of the China, the government
of US applied tariffs and other trade barriers on the China. Moreover, the unfair trade practices
mentioned by the US government include the theft of intellectual property, the increasing trade
deficit and the illegal transfer of technology from the US to China.

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Hence, government led by Donald Trump took initiatives to boost the domestic
manufacturing industry by reducing the trade deficit of the country (Enkhbayar & Nakajima,
2018). Furthermore, the effects of the trade tension have been spread in all countries of the world
due to dominance of the US and China in the world trade. It will also influence the overall
international trade in the long term by growing trade barriers and tariffs.
Discussion
Trade war between US and China
The government of the US imposed tariffs of $34 billion on Chinese goods on July 2018.
In retaliation, the government of China also imposed tariffs worth same amount on goods from
US. The US planned to impose tariffs on more than 1300 categories of Chinese goods, which
include flat-panel televisions, aircraft parts, satellites, batteries, several weapons and medical
devices because of illegal trade practice by the China (Zhang, 2019). According to the
government of China, it also planned to apply tariffs on 128 products of the US, which involve
airplanes, pork, aluminum, soybeans, cars, steel pinning, fruit and nuts. The tariffs imposed by
the US was equivalent to 0.1% of the GDP of world. Furthermore, the US again imposed tariffs f
10% on Chinese goods of worth $200billion and later increased the amount of the tariff to 25%.
The Chinese government also provided prompt reply by imposing tariff of 10% on the US goods
f worth $60 billion. Thus, the ongoing trade conflict between two countries grown stronger and
impacted the trade growth of both countries. The growth structure of two countries in world GDP
and trade have made them significant pillars of the world economy. Hence, the escalation of
trade war between two countries caused damage to economy of many countries as well.

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As of December 2019, the manufacturing sector of the US hit dramatically over a decade
in presence of trade conflict (Plakandaras, Bouri & Gupta, 2019). Thus, two countries recently
agreed upon signing phase one trade deal. The trade deal between the US and China signed
through a bilateral mechanism and it came into force from February 2020. The global economic
growth is hurt by the punitive tariffs, which is difficult to repair in order to revive the global
growth. According to the market report, the damage already faced by the global economy is easy
to recover with the recent phase one trade deal between the US and China.
Figure 1: Trade percentage of GDP of the US, China and world from 2008 to 2018
Source: (Data.worldbank.org, 2020)
Figure 1 represents trade percentage of GDP of the US, China and world from 2008 to
2018. The analysis of the data of trade percentage of GDP helps to examine the contribution of

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the trade on the GDP growth of the countries as well as world. In addition, it also emphasizes on
how trade conflict affected the growth of the countries and world. The trade percentage of the
GDP of the world improved from 58.066% in 2017 to 59.443% in 2018. However, both
countries US and China registered a slow growth in the trade percentage of the GDP (Vlados,
2020). The trade percentage of the GDP expanded from 38.15% in 2017 to 38.246% in 2018 in
case of the China. Moreover, the trade percentage of the GDP of the US increased from 27.142%
in 2017 to 27.544% in 2018. According to the data, there exists little improvements in the trade
percentage of the GDP due to trade conflict and other economic uncertainties.
Figure 2: Balance of trade of the China from 2010 to 2019
Source: (Tradingeconomics.com, 2020)
Figure 2 shows balance of trade of the China from 2010 to 2019. It highlights the
difference between the amount of exports and imports of the China. In December 2018, the trade
surplus of the China was $56.80 billion US dollars, which contracted to $47.21 billion US dollars
in December 2019. The country witnessed little improvements in exports (Cao, 2019). It

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expanded by 7.9% because of trade talks with the US and strengthening of global demand. In
December 2019, the growing commodity prices also pushed the imports up by 16.5% since
October 2018. In November 2019, the trade surplus of the China with the US was $ 24.6 billion
US dollars, which reduced to $23.18 billion US dollars in December 2019. As per the whole year
of 2019, there was a hike in the trade surplus from $350.9 billion US dollars in the starting of the
year to $424.9 billion US dollars in the end of the year due to rise in exports by 0.5% and fall in
imports by 2.8%.
Hence, trade war resulted in widening of the trade surplus of the China. Historically,
during the period of 2010 to 2019, the balance of trade of the China was highest in 2015 and it
was lowest in 2012. The nation registered an increasing trend in the balance of trade (Kwan,
2020). Presently, the trade surplus of the China with the US stood at $295.8 billion US dollars,
which plunged from $323.3 billion US dollars in 2018. In addition, the export between two
countries dropped by 12.5% and import between two countries also plummeted by 20.9%.

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Figure 3: Balance of trade of the United States from 2010 to 2019
Source: (Tradingeconomics.com, 2020)
Figure 3 illustrates balance of trade of the US from 2010 to 2019. Graphically, the
balance of trade of the US was all time high in 2014 and it was all time low in 2019. The nation
witnessed a decreasing trend in balance of trade. In November 2019, the trade gap of the US was
$43.7 billion US dollars, which expanded to $48.9 billion in December 2019. The sales of the
crude oil boosted whereas the sales of the passenger cars dropped (Dhar, 2018). As a result, there
was an incline in the export by 0.8% and stood at $209.6 billion US dollars. On the other hand,
the increase in the purchase of the nonmonetary gold and crude oil pushed up imports by 2.7%
and stood at $258.5 billion in December 2019. After May 2019, there was expansion in the
export and import of the US. In 2019, the country registered highest fall in trade deficit by 1.7%
to $616.8 billion US dollars, which was also highest since May 2019. As per the trade in entire
2019, the exports and imports of the products shark by 1.3% and 1.7% respectively. Moreover,
the goods deficit of the US with the China was down by 18% and stood at $345.6 billion US
dollars in 2019. However, trade gap of the US with China widened by 5%, 42% and 26.2% with
the EU, Canada and Mexico respectively. Thus, the trade gap remained at $1777.9 billion US
dollars, $27 billion US dollars and $101.8 billion US dollars with the EU, Canada and Mexico
respectively (Das, 2019).
One of the key artery of the world economy is trade growth. The contribution of the trade
is significant on the growth of the global economy. The trade restrictions hampered the
confidence of the businesses and investors (Chang, 2019). It resulted in plunge in investments
around the world. The adverse effects of the investment and other trade uncertainties led to
contraction in the global growth from 5.25% in 2017 to 4% in 2018. The risk associated with the

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trade restrictions will remain even after the finalizing a trade deal between two major economies.
As the US-EU trade deal remain underway, the government of US may put other restrictive
measures on the specific trade sensitive sectors include cars and car parts (Tandon, 2015). The
motor vehicle exports of the EU represents almost one-tenth of total merchandise export to the
US. Moreover, the supply chain linkages are also significant between the EU and US. Therefore,
the impact of the tariffs burden would spread all over the country and would slump the Europe
drastically. It would also push up the burden of the cost with the increase in tariffs and would
influences the businesses and investments across the world.
The year-old trade conflict between two major economies of the world induces the
chances of the global recession (Liu, 2018). There are some major economies of the world either
they have already faced recession or will face the recession soon. These countries are Germany,
Singapore, UK, Brazil and Russia. According to the estimation, the trade war-ridden country US
may also slip into the recession in 2021. It raises the level of uncertainty in all countries of the
world and it may contract the global gross domestic product by 0.6% in 2021. The outcome
predicted in comparison with the scenario where there is no trade conflict between the US and
China (Lechthaler & Mileva, 2018). As per the estimation of the International Monetary Fund
(IMF), the global domestic product would be $ 97 trillion in 2021. The impact of the increase in
tariffs and other restrictions would shave off $ 585 billion from the estimated global domestic
product of the IMF in 2021.
The effects of the trade war on global economic structure
The estimation of impacts of the trade tensions between the US and China on global
economic structure can be evaluated on the basis of an economic simulation (Liu, 2018). In the
first step, the calculation of the tariffs will be based on direct impact on GDP. The prediction

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according to the simulation include the application of 25% tariffs by the US on imported goods
by China of worth $500 billion US dollars. In retaliation, China will also put tariffs of 50% on
the US goods. After that, the indirect global impacts of the trade tension can be estimated with
the help of iterations of financial channels and global trade. To handle changes in broader global
financial conditions and interest rates, the elasticity is taken from two financial indexes and from
an econometric GDP model for the China, US and Eurozone (Lechthaler & Mileva, 2018).
According to the assumption of the simulation, it would be difficult for the Fed to absorb the
shock at the late-cycle stage. Moreover, as per estimation, if the US-China trade was escalate on
full-fledge, it could plunge the global GDP growth by 0.7 percentage point (PP) and may remain
at 2.8% in 2019.
Hence, the tariff war would impact China on a greater level at -0.9 pp because of
influence of direct trade. On the contrary, the financial link and indirect trade influence of the
tariff war would impact the Europe by -0.8%. The aftermath of the trade war would be less on
the US by -0.4% because of indirect financial links and lower direct trade influence (Onyusheva,
Naing & Zaw, 2019). The scenario such as full-blown trade war would influence the growth of
the Latin America significantly. Two major fronts would be mainly affected by the trade tension
such as tighter financial conditions and weaker global growth. In addition, the weaker global
growth would also influence the international trade. Finally, the level of vulnerability of the
countries will depend on the exposure of the trade and dependence on the global financial
conditions. Domestic or external imbalances of the each country will decide the ultimate
vulnerability of the country (Kalsie & Arora, 2019). Furthermore, if the country exposed to trade
with the core economies that would also increase the vulnerability of the country.

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The tighter global financial condition may bring negative consequences for the
Argentina. The major share of export of the Argentina is based on primary export product soy,
which account for 60% of the total export (Robinson & Thierfelder, 2019). Thus, the application
of tariffs on the US agricultural goods by the China could benefit the country. However, the
fiscal deficit of the country remained wide, the ratio of the international reserve was also lowest
and there exists lack of domestic funding sources. As a result, the country witnessed nominal
GDP at almost 4.8% of the GDP, which brought negative consequences. The absence of the full-
fledged trade war creates obstacles for the capital market. Thus, the continuity of the economic
policy after the presidential election in October 2019 is the major question asked in the capital
market of the country. However, the country will regain market financing from the programme
of the IMF, which provides financing for the public sector in 2019 (Hongjie & Hongyong, 2019).
It would be beneficial for the country. Though, the escalation of the trade war may increase the
market share of the Argentina in the market of the China. The growth of the country could
reduce by around 1.8 pp due to the trade conflict.
The main competition of the Mexico remain with the manufacturing of the China that
exports in the US market (Weforum.org, 2020). It accounted for 75% of the external sales of
goods of the Mexico. Thus, according to the estimation the loss of the county will be lower. The
GDP growth of the Mexico may drag by 0.5 pp. To renegotiate NAFTA, an agreement has also
reached between the government of Canada and US with the Mexico, which is favorable for the
country (Handley & Limão, 2017). It is now rebranded as USMCA and the congressional
approval remained pending. The fundamentals of the country stays solid due to high reserves,
narrow current and fiscal account deficit and moderate and stable public debt. In 2018, the
reserves of the Mexico was $ 175 billion US dollars. The current and fiscal account deficits

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stayed 1.6% and 2% of the GDP respectively in 2018. In addition, the net public debt remained
46% of the GDP as of 2018. Whereas, the uncertainties faced by the Mexico include erratic
signals on domestic economic policies and the negotiations of NAFTA over the last couple of
years (Di, Luft & Zhong, 2019).
The deceleration of growth will be witnessed in other countries such as Peru, Chile and
Colombia. Two countries are more exposed to China due to their larger share of exports of
copper. The exports of copper represents 31% and 49% of the total exports in Peru and Chile
respectively. However, the fundamentals of both countries are very strong, which will control the
level of deceleration of growth. Furthermore, both countries possesses sizable public external
assets and the net public debt stayed lower than 10% of the GDP (Ignatova, Gorbunova &
Tereshina, 2019). As a result, the country may adopt counter-cyclical policies. However, the
partial dollarization of the economy of Peru acts as a constraint. Moreover, the less sensitive
country to China is Columbia. Although, the fundamentals of the country is relatively lower than
the Peru and Chile and economy is relatively closed one. The reason behind the weak
fundamentals of the country include wide current and fiscal account deficit at around 3% of the
GDP for both as of 2018. The major export product of the country is oil, which represented 40%
of the total exports. In addition, 28% of the GDP remained equivalent to the total imports and
exports of the Colombia.
Therefore, the countries that are relatively closed to world trade also affected by the trade
war. The economy of Brazil is also relatively closed to world trade, although, it would still face
the slowdown of the economy. The average of total imports and exports registered at 53% of the
GDP in most of the G20 Countries, while it only remained at 24% of the GDP in case of Brazil.
The economic cycle of the Brazil tend to be correlated with world economy (Miyagiwa, Song &

13TRADE WAR BETWEEN US AND CHINA
Vandenbussche, 2016). Thus, trade is not the only channels though which the economic activities
of the Brazil may affect in the global economy. In addition, the event of the trade war may
plunge the level of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the nation. Thus, the country is highly
dependent on the foreign direct investment and large receiver of it. Another reason that may
affect the growth rate of the country is fiscal weakness. The main fiscal weakness that the
country suffers is foreign capital flows. In addition, there is a high possibility that in the period
of heightened risk aversion, the vulnerability of the Brazil towards the foreign capital flow will
induce (Mahadevan & Nugroho, 2019). The trade war would lower the global growth, which
would bring worse financial risk for the Brazil economy. Therefore, the trade conflict between
the US and China would create strong impact on the economy of Brazil, although, the domestic
financial markets of the Brazil is developed in comparison with other countries. As per the
prediction, the influence of the trade war may degrade the economy of Brazil by almost 0.7 pp.
The shock of trade uncertainty can negate with the application of monetary policy.
However, the damage cannot be avoided entirely (Forbes.com, 2020). The initiatives taken by
the all central banks around the world towards the demand weakness may mitigate the
contraction in the global domestic product by 0.3% in 2021. In order to, control the broadening
fallout, the central banks around Asia, Europe and Australia have already slash interest rates
(Bellora & Fontagné, 2019). This would prevent the major damage from the trade war. As the
economies of both US and China suffered due to the trade war, it can be stated that the trade
restriction fail to solve the issues faced by the both economies. The effects of the trade war will
be much bigger on the economy of China. In addition, the expected GDP of the China would
scale down by 1% due to trade war. On the contrary, the expected GDP of the US would decline
by 0.6% because of trade conflict.

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Hence, the overall structure of the global economy would reshape by the trade tension
between two biggest economies of the world. There exists various transformational forces that
acts in favor of the trade war and results in new future of the global economy. The market size
for imports of the Asia is characterized by the growing and vibrant consumer markets. Moreover,
the private consumer expenditure is also increasing at a higher pace and the growth of region is
also faster. Thus, restriction in the trade would also prevent from tapping the emerging market.
Hence, it would affect the global trade growth dramatically by lowering the overall trade
between the countries. Many countries around the world already suffered a huge loss due to the
trade war and the effects would be more intense ahead as the settlement of the trade deal fails to
mitigate the turmoil and uncertainty.
Conclusion
The government of the US applied the tariffs on the products of the China, which escalate
the trade conflict between two countries. Furthermore, the unfair trade practices by the China led
to the trade war according to the Trump administration (Li, He & Lin, 2018). The government of
China also put the burden of the retaliatory tariffs on the products of the US. It affected the
volume and growth of the international trade between two biggest economies of the world. As
the larger share of the global trade represented by these two countries. It also impacts the global
trade growth and results in reshaping the global economic structure. The GDP growth rate of the
US-China and other nations of the world plummeted due to the trade conflict. As a result, there
would be slowdown in the global economic growth. Several major economies of the world
including the US may face the recession because of uncertainty and turmoil in the global
economy. To negate the adverse effects of the trade tension, major efforts should be given by the
central banks of the courtiers.

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The adoption of the monetary policy may help the countries to control the intensity of the
trade conflict (Onyusheva, Naing & Zaw, 2019). However, it would be unable to negate the
adverse influence of the trade war completely. Two countries signed phase one trade deal in
order to settle the escalation of trade war, although, it fails to prevent the global slowdown and
other adverse effects. Many countries around the world slashed the interest rate to minimize the
negative effects of the financial uncertainty. In addition, the aftermath of the trade conflict
depends on the openness to international trade and internal economy of the country. However, it
is estimated that the countries those are relatively not exposed to the international trade would
also be effected by the trade conflict such as Brazil and Columbia. Some countries suffered
because of the weakness of the internal structure such as lower reserve and fiscal and current
account deficit. Therefore, many transformational forces led to the slowdown of the countries
along with world. Thus, the escalation of the trade war lead to change in global economic
structure in short and long term.

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