Comprehensive Risk Management Report: Brenner Base Tunnel Project

This report provides a detailed risk management analysis of the Brenner Base Tunnel (BBT) project, a crucial infrastructure endeavor connecting Austria and Italy. It begins with an introduction and project overview, highlighting key considerations such as the tunnel's design and cost. The report then delves into the risk management process, including hazard identification based on PESTLE analysis, risk assessment with a risk register, and vulnerability impact. Various risks are assessed, including political instability, economic challenges, environmental concerns, and safety issues, with estimated likelihoods and potential consequences. The report also explores loss estimation through scenario planning and resource inventory. Finally, it outlines risk control measures and a communication plan, offering a comprehensive view of the project's risk landscape and mitigation strategies. The report highlights the potential impact of various risks, including those related to political interference, economic challenges, natural disasters, and worker safety, emphasizing the importance of proactive risk management in ensuring the project's successful completion. The analysis includes a risk register that details each identified risk, its causes, potential consequences, and priority level.

Brenner base tunnel project
Risk Management Report
Name:
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Table of Contents
Introduction:...............................................................................................................................3
Project Overview:...................................................................................................................3
Key Considerations:...............................................................................................................4
About the Report:...................................................................................................................5
Risk Management Process.........................................................................................................6
a) Hazard & Risk identification..........................................................................................6
Risks Cause and Effect Diagram:......................................................................................9
b) Risk Assessment & Vulnerability Impact:......................................................................9
Risk Register:.....................................................................................................................9
Stakeholders identification.......................................................................................................14
Loss estimation.........................................................................................................................15
a) Scenario planning..........................................................................................................15
b) Estimated loss:..............................................................................................................16
Casualties:........................................................................................................................16
Infrastructure Damage:.....................................................................................................16
Economic Damage:..........................................................................................................17
c) Inventory of resources...................................................................................................17
Human Resources:...........................................................................................................17
Supplies or other resources:.............................................................................................17
Capital Goods:..................................................................................................................17
Accommodation or Space:...............................................................................................18
Information & Communication resources:.......................................................................18
MISC:...............................................................................................................................18
Risk control..............................................................................................................................19
Land Sliding:........................................................................................................................19
Sandbagging to prevent Flood:............................................................................................19
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Dynamic Blasting Prevention:.............................................................................................19
Risk reporting...........................................................................................................................21
a) Communication Plan:....................................................................................................21
References:...............................................................................................................................23
Appendix:.................................................................................................................................25
Probability Impact Grid:......................................................................................................25
Risk Register- Glossary:......................................................................................................25
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Introduction:
Project Overview:
In order to achieve the global competitiveness for fostering the presence of European Union
(EU) in the world and maintaining the equality amongst the EU countries, an EU Cohesion
Policy was introduced in the early 90’s. Thus an enormous support of the EU has enormously
helped in developing the infrastructure among the emerging members of this great union
(specially the countries with less than 90% GDP growth per capita). In this regards, the
Brenner Base Tunnel (BBT) is a very crucial project that will assist the Austria and Italy in
backing their economy through providing a gateway for the other EU members. The BBT is a
part of the North-South European Union railway corridor with 2200 km long nexus which
starts from Berlin to Palermo. The BBT project aims to connect Austria and Italy through a
55km long underground tunnel (Alchetron, 2021) which is a masterpiece in the underground
railway infrastructure that will start from Innsbruck (Austria) to Fortezza (Italy). Because the
BBT is a high-priority development project for the EU, 50 percent of the expenses for the
exploratory tunnel and 40 percent of the expenses for both major stations will be funded
individually (TBM, 2021). However, Austria and Italy will each contribute 50 to 60 percent
of the residual expenditures.
Figure 1- EU Railway corridor (Source: Alchetron, 2021 )
For the northern and southern part, the BBT project intends to develop 6.7% and 4.0%
longitudinal grade of the tunnel, respectively. Based on the Apex of the tunnel (taken through
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the specific location between the Italy and Austria), the deepest point of the tunnel will be
around 1600m below the sea-level and the highest point or maximum elevation of the tunnel
is expected to be around 794m above the sea level (BBT SE, 2021).
Key Considerations:
The BBT is a complicated tunnel network made up of two major channels, each 8.1 metres
wide and 40 to 70 metres apart. Both of these ducts are composed of a single line within one
train operation. There are three safety stopping places there in BBT where trains can cease
below in the tunnel in the case of unanticipated occurrences. The two ducts are connected per
333 metres by joining flank tunnels that can be utilised as emergency exits in the event of an
accident. This design meets the most stringent tunnel safety requirements. The Brenner's
northern border has a steep height of 6.7 percent, while the southern border has an inclination
of 4 percent (Project Report BBT, 2020). In 2013, the total cost of the BBT project was
initially estimated to be GBP 7999 billion; however, after the initiation of the project and
hazards identification in initial phase, the government updated the total cost to be around
GBP 8800 billion.
Figure 2: Key Points of the BBT Tunnel Network between Austria and Italy (Source: TBM, 2021)
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About the Report:
This report critically determines the different aspects of the BBT project and investigates the
project environment related hazards, and potential risks that can adversely affect the project
execution phase. The report provides a deep insight about the risks and their amplitude;
alongside their impact on the project are critically highlighted. The identification, assessment
and impact with mitigation strategies are prescribed through the risk register. Furthermore, a
description of the many strategies for mitigating these risks are also configured in this report
in order to decrease the chance of their becoming a disaster or an emergency. The study
makes various assumptions (due to the sensitive information related with the stakeholders and
lack of data availability) based on previous research on similar projects in order to create
close-to-accurate estimates.
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Risk Management Process
The risk management process of the BBT project determines the potential hazards, risks and challenges for the stakeholders in completing the
project under the estimated conditions. Moreover, the risk assessment and vulnerability impact determines the adverse impacts of these
challenges for the effective and efficient completion of the BBT project.
a) Hazard & Risk identification
According to Oh (2007), in the man-made project, a significant number of technological and other hazards occur that occur in the industrial and
infrastructural projects. The impact of the political, technological, environmental, social and legal risks on the project sometimes lead to serious
consequences. In the BBT project, the profiling of the risks or hazards is also based on the PESTLE (political, economic, social, technological,
legal, environmental) which are summarized in accordance with the categories.
Table 1- Hazard & Risk Identification
No. Hazard Description Local Historical Background Local Vulnerability Possible Consequences Estimated
Likelihood
1. Threat of political
instability &
involvement of
fascist dictatorial
regime- Italy
All parties pledge the
completion of BBT Project;
though some fascist parties
have disagreements regarding
the project
Although Italy has made
significant progress but
conflicting interest of some
groups are leading to hinder
that progress
Hindering the
execution phase of
the project
Delay in the completion
of BBT project as that
of estimated time
(2025)
High
2. Changed regulations
of Development
Policy in Austria
Austrian policies were drawn
before, through EU but
recently ADA (Austrian
Development Agency) has
Numerous public actors such
as ADA, ADB (Austrian
Development Bank) and
other cooperation are now
Project hindering for
gaining inappropriate
advantages or
individual interest
Leading to conflict
between EU and local
ADA, ADB and other
cooperation
Medium
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changed the regulation and
ended the authority of EU
over it
leading the development
project in Austria
prioritization
3. Economic- Austria
Funding of BBT
Project
EU is overall funding 50% of
the project, with lower GDP
per capita, Austria has
serious financial implications
(debt crises), comparing to
that of Italy
Since the banking crisis of
Austria in 1931, the
economic instability of the
country has enormously
increased the debt with every
passing year
50% funding of the
BBT project is a
challenge for
Austrian
Government
Can cause a conflict
between Italy and
Austria in funding and
completing the project
within proposed time
Medium
4. Covid-19 caused
economic crisis
Italy is also funding 50% of
the project but recent
economic crisis will
emphasize on delaying the
project
Outbreak of current
pandemic in Italy lead to
devastating challenges for
the country and adversely
affected the economic
stability
BBT Project
continuation at a
high pace is a
challenge for Italian
Government
The lack of economic
stability can cause a
significant delay in the
project execution
High
5. Environmental
Challenges- Italy
Italy is 27th most affected
country due to climate
change and frequent
earthquakes, disasters and
weather extreme challenges
are erupting that might affect
the project
Floods and landslide history
of Italy since 1991 has
affected over 0.3 million and
hundreds of projects
BBT Project is
tunnel based project,
thus landslide can
lead to huge number
of Casualties
The landslide and huge
number of Casualties
can lead to a significant
delay in the project
execution and
completion
High
6. Drilling and The BBT project is tunnel Blasting of Hills adversely Serious Project may be delayed Low
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Dynamite Blasting
of Hills- Legal
Challenges
based; thus it would require
blasting in the hills which is
against the international laws
affects the nearby structures
thus it is banned. In doing
so, the BBT project will
violate the international laws
consequences of
international
communities on the
project
or need to adopt new
methods of drilling to
avoid the dynamite
blasting
7. Safety of labour and
project workers
The construction of BBT is
led by dynamite blasting in
Innsbruck and Fortezza;
which is very fatal for the
workers and can cause huge
Casualties
In Italy, 48 workers lost their
life while building the Fréjus
Road Tunnel in 1800s; over
200 workers lost their life
while constructing Amberg
Tunnel in Austria in 1993.
Project workers’
health, safety and
security is a key
challenge
In case of unfortunate
Casualties, the BBT
project can be stopped
or delayed
Medium
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Risks Cause and Effect Diagram:
b) Risk Assessment & Vulnerability Impact:
The risks and hazards in a system are identified, quantified, and prioritised in a vulnerability assessment. A risk assessment analyses security
risks and threat actors, as well as the likelihood of these elements leading to a risk or damage. The risk assessment and vulnerability impact of
the BBT project is based on the identified hazards in Table 1.
Risk Register:
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Ref. Category Process Risk Event/ Risk
Name Possible Causes
Current Risk
Consequence Priority
Likelihood Impact Severit
y
1 Political Political
Instability
Risk of involvement
of different activist
groups that might
affect the project
proceedings
All parties in Italy pledge
the completion of BBT
Project; however, some
fascist parties have
disagreements regarding
the project
3 5 15
Delay in the
completion of the
BBT project as
compared to the
projected timeline
(2025)
15
2 Political
Political
Interference
with
regulations
Risk of Changed
Austrian
Development
Policy Regulations
Austrian policies were
formerly drawn through
the EU, however the
ADA (Austrian
Development Agency)
recently altered the
legislation and removed
the EU's jurisdiction.
2 5 10
The project
processes can be
adversely affected
and it can delay the
project completion
1
3 Economic Debt Crisis
for the
Austrian
Government
Risk of project
funding from
Austria due to
enormous banking
financial debt
Austria has significant
financial consequences
(debt crises) when
compared to Italy, as the
EU funds 50% of the
project. Austria has a
4 3 12 The lack of
economic stability
can cause a
significant delay in
the project
3
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lower GDP per capita
than Italy, which has
serious financial
implications (debt crises).
execution
4. Economic
Risk of
Covid-19 led
economic
challenges
Risk of financing
the BBT project by
50%, under the
pandemic caused
circumstances- Italy
The present pandemic's
outbreak in Italy has
created terrible problems
for the country as a result
of the industry's
downturn, which has
harmed the country's
economic stability.
4 3 12
A lack of economic
stability might
create a
considerable delay
in the completion of
a project.
2
5 Social
Risks of
Safety and
security
Risk of Safety of
workers because of
dynamite tunnel
blasting method for
the construction
In the 1800s, 48
labourers died
constructing the Fréjus
Road Tunnel in Italy; in
1993, nearly 200
employees died
constructing the Amberg
Tunnel in Austria.
2 3 6
Lead to poor
management of the
project activities
and realization of
the project; which
can result in project
delay
6
6. Environmental
Natural
disasters and
climate
Risk of natural
disasters that are
very frequent in
Due to climate change,
Italy is the 27th most
impacted country, and
1 3 3
Due to the landslide
and large number of
casualties, the
3
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