Ballarat Business Confidence Analysis: MIS770 Assignment 2 Report

This report, prepared for the Ballarat City Council by Nick Black, analyzes business confidence and expectations based on data from 150 local businesses. The analysis covers various aspects including business demographics, operational history, employee data (part-time, full-time, and casual), business activity, expectations for future growth, profitability, and sales channels. The report provides insights into employee growth strategies, revenue, and the impact of business confidence on the local economy. The analysis includes statistical findings, such as the proportion of businesses with growth strategies, average employee numbers, and the likelihood of new business openings. Key conclusions address the relationship between growth strategies and employee numbers, average manager age, and the sample size needed for future surveys. The report utilizes statistical methods to provide actionable recommendations for the council, referencing relevant academic sources. This analysis aims to aid the council in maintaining and improving the standard of living and income for the residents of Ballarat.

Memorandum
To: Ballarat City Council
From: Nick Black
Subject: Solutions to further analysis of business confidence and expectations
Dear Ballarat,
Based on the questions posted in the email, I have done analysis on the business
confidence and expectation and I do believe that each and every response that have discuss will
help your government not only in maintaining a better life standard for your people but also
improve their income.
The first question talks about the summary of the sample data. In this question we
summarizes the sample data by analyzing different variables and observations. The data contains
information of one hundred and fifty local businesses. Some of these businesses are called retail
trade, accommodation and food services and manufacturing, transport and storage. The owners
and managers of these businesses comprise of both males and females but the number of males is
higher than that of females. The managers and owners ages information is also contain in this
data where we find that the eldest manager is approximately 77 years. Most of the local
businesses have been operating for more than ten years as others have operated for two years.
These local businesses also employ people. Some people work as part time, full time and casual.
Some local businesses are managed by one person (self-employed). The data also tells us that in
the last twelve months the number of employees by the businesses would increase. There are also
problems faced by businesses when employing new staff members. On the business activity, it
increases from financial year (2014-2015) to (2015-2016). There are also information on the
business expectation activity in which we realize that it increased for the financial year (2015-
2016) to (2016-2017). On the business expectation in profitability, it rises for (2015-2016) to
(2016-2017) financial year. The data also describes the sales of the businesses which come from
outside local area and within state, other sales come from outside victoria and others come from
the internet. Furthermore, the highest percentage of sales comes from the internet. Most people
have a positive belief in the local business environment by people within the region. There is a
medium in the confidence level of the local area’s business environment. The average gross
revenue for these local businesses is $299.
For question 2 when determining the proportion of all businesses in the region that
had a growth strategy on the number of employees from the local region, most values lies within
the mean which is approximately 35. On question 3 there is evidence to suggest that the
proportion of local businesses that do have a growth strategy could be less than 47% and
therefore impacting on revenue in the region. The 76% confidence level of average number of
staff for business with a growth strategy lies within 28 to 41 and that without a growth strategy
lies within 10-25% and therefore from the analysis we conclude that businesses with growth
strategy have high number of employees on average and are more successful. For question 4 we
realize that most managers of these local businesses are young because their average age is
approximately 48 years which is less than 50 years.
Furthermore, on question 5 we observe that an average of 10 business open each
year, the likelihood that next year more than 15 businesses will open is 0.8944 and the likelihood
that the number of business that open will be 5 or less is 0.1056. Now on conclusion with
question 6, if this survey is done once again next year to estimate the average number of people
that local business employ to within four employees the sample size would be 87 and the % of
business with a growth strategy to within 2% is 25.

Thank you,
Nick Black
References
Moore, D. S., Notz, W. I, & Flinger, M. A. (2013). The basic practice of statistics(6thed.). New
York, NY: W. H. Freeman and Company.
Mindrila, D. and Balentyne, P. (2013). [online] Westga.edu. Available at:
https://www.westga.edu/academics/research/vrc/assets/docs/confidence_intervals_notes.pdf
[Accessed 6 May 2019].