Caucasus Region Strategic Estimate: Security, Stability & US Interests

This strategic estimate provides a comprehensive analysis of the Caucasus region, focusing on the strategic environment, key regional players, and US interests. It outlines EUCOM's mission to foster regional security and stability, promote democracy, enable free markets, and counter terrorism. The estimate identifies key regional players such as Georgia, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Ahurastan, along with other state influences like Russia, the United States, and Kazakhstan. It also examines non-state actors, including the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and various insurgent groups. Flash points for potential conflicts, such as cross-border fire, the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, and Russian involvement in Georgia, are highlighted. The estimate emphasizes US national interests in ensuring strong alliances, promoting security, and resolving regional conflicts, as well as domestic considerations related to protecting the BTC pipeline and US nationals working in the region. Recent US activities, including diplomatic efforts and support for democratic development, are also summarized.

Strategic Estimate
Caucasus Region
Rank / Name
Date

Mission Statement
EUCOM conducts long term (5-10 years) military
operations, international military engagement, and
interagency partnering in the Caucasus Region to foster
regional security and stability, to influence the actions of
key players that will promote long term security and
prosperity in the region, to promote democracy, to enable
free and uncorrupt markets for trade, to disrupt and
defeat current and future terrorism networks and to
provide humanitarian support in areas of desperate need.

End State
Endstate: (1) Region is secure, prospering and at
peace; (2) Democratic countries are capable of
securing themselves and providing for their people;
(3) Energy resources and other sources of trade are
able to freely and securely flow without corruption;
(4) region is able to effectively police illegal activities
(e.g. drug/human trafficking) and (5) region is not a
safe haven for terrorist organizations.

Strategic Environment
Key Regional Players
1. Georgia – This state has aspirations of entering NATO and pursues ties with the US and Europe.
Russia has been heavily involved in Georgia and supplies many energy resources and is an influencer
in the attempt to persuade Georgia to cut ties with US, Europe and Turkey. After Russia invaded
Georgia in 2008, 38 countries and 15 international organizations pledged $3.7 billion to help rebuild
infrastructure, financial and banking sectors.
2. Turkey – This state has poor relationships with Armenia but pursues strong ties with Azerbaijan and
Georgia. The relationship with these countries comes from the BTC pipeline cooperation and a
mutual security interest against threats from Ahurastan. Turkey continues to develop relationships
with the U.S., especially in the areas of energy, trade, investment, security and stability.
3. Armenia – This state has closed borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan due to the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. The U.S. has close relations with Armenia and has provided nearly $2 billion in humanitarian
support to the state. Many U.S. corporations work within Armenia and the U.S. is attempting to help
Armenia to develop its economy and establish a democratic form of government. In spite of U.S.
support, Armenia maintains a positive relationship with Ahurastan.
4. Azerbaijan – This state has poor relations with Armenia due to the Nagorono-Karabakh dispute and
with Ahurastan due to it’s support of Armenia and the South Azeri People’s Army (SAPA). The U.S.
has been heavily involved in Azerbaijan to support political and economic transformation and has
provided $27 million in humanitarian, democracy and reform assistance in addition to investments in
oil developments by U.S. corporations.
5. Ahurastan – This is an area of Iran that has separated from Iran due to ethnic based reasons. This
area is only officially recognized by Oman and the UAE. This area supports the SAPA with cross border
fire in its conflict with Azerbaijan.
State Information Summarized from “Background Notes – US Department of State”

Strategic Environment
Other State Influences
1. Russia – This state has invaded Georgia (summer 2008) and continues to influence
Georgia by trying to persuade the state to sever ties to Europe and the United States.
While Russia has pulled back from most of Georgia, it still supports the breakaway
regions of Georgia know as South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
2. United States – The U.S. is actively involved in the support of democracy and
stabilization within the region. The U.S. has developed close ties with Armenia, Georgia
and Azerbaijan. Access to energy resources is a key component for U.S. involvement.
3. Kazakhstan – Although on the other side of the Caspian Sea, this state has been in with
competing oil claims with Azerbaijan.
State Information Summarized from “Country Profiles, Introduction from the CIA’s
The World Factbook

Strategic Environment
Other Regional Influences
1. BTC Oil Consortium (US, France, Italy,
Japan, Norway and Turkey
investments)
2. South Caucasus Gas Pipeline (SCGP)
(Iran and Russia investments)
3. Azeri-Chirag-Guneshi Oil Fields
(Feeds BTC)
4. Shah Deniz Gas Field (Feeds SCGP)
5. BP, Exxon, Mobile, Conoco Phillips,
Chevron, SOCAR, TPAO
Energy resources play a key role in this region. There are two main pipelines that
provide resources to the West and Russia. Competition for these resources
provide a key area of conflict in the Caspian Sea as many regional states lay claim
to those resources. In addition to the state actors in the region, there are many
non-state actors that support the energy exploration and export from the region.

Strategic Environment
Non-State Actors
1. Nagorno-Karabakh Republic – Officially part of Azerbaijan, this area is over 95%
Armenian and there are approximately 750,000 refugees from the area in Azerbaijan.
Armenia and Azerbaijan both claim this disputed area.
2. Free Karabakh Movement (FKM)- An insurgent group formed from Azeris that have been
driven from the Nagorno-Karabakh area.
3. South Azeri People’s Army (SAPA) – A fundamentalist insurgent group which was trained
in Ahurastan and is supported by cross border fire from Ahurastan. The primary goal of
this organization is to overthrow the secular government in Azerbaijan.
4. National Liberation Movement of Southern Azerbaijan (NLMSA) – An Azeri movement
dedicated to preserving the personal freedoms of the Turkish Azeri population in the
Ahurastan area of Iran.
5. Radio Tabriz – An anti-American radio station that claims to be from Azerbaijan but in
reality is located in the area of Ahurastan.
6. Abkhazia and South Ossetia - Independent areas of Georgia that broke away from
Georgia and precipitated the invasion of Russia in 2008. Heavily reliant on Russia for
economic and security support.
Information from Background Readings – Scenario Background

Strategic Environment
Recent Key Events
1. 2008 Conflict Between Russia and Georgia – The separation of South Ossetia and
Abkhazia from Georgia has caused conflict in which Russia supported the break away
areas. Russia still maintains a troop presence in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Consequently, Georgia does not have complete control of is sovereign area and has
foreign nation troops stationed in its area.
2. SAPA Operations in Azerbaijan – SAPA has been supported by both Iran and now the
break away area of Ahurastan.
3. 2015 Break Away of Ahurastan from Iran – The ethnically based area of northern Iran
broke away from Iran in 2015 and declared independence from Iran in 2016. Currently
only recognized internationally by Oman and the UAE. This area provides cross border fire
support to the SAPA.
4. Competing Claims to Caspian Sea oil Rights – Ahurastan, Iran and Azerbaijan all claim
rights to oil reserves in portions of the Caspian Sea.
5. November 2016 Attack of Nuclear Power Station at Metsamor, Armenia – The Free
Karabakh Movement attacked the Armenian power station at Metsamor. Armenia blamed
Azerbaijan for backing the FKM attack which damaged the station, causing leaks that were
detected in neighboring countries.
6. February 2016 Split of Iran’s Southwest Provinces – This area does not support terrorist
activities nor does it lay claim to any areas outside of their own territory.
Information from Background Readings – Scenario Background

Strategic Environment
Flash Points for Potential Conflicts
1. Cross Border Fire from Ahurastan/SAPA Activities– The Ahurastan support of SAPA has
the potential to destabilize the region. Azerbaijan has requested U.S. support to assist
with the increased movements of SAPA insurgents in the border areas. SAPA is increasing
activity in the border regions, using the areas for training, refitting and staging for cross
border raids.
2. Azerbaijan and Armenia Conflict over the Nagorno-Karbakh region – After the FKM
attacked a nuclear power plant in Armenia, relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan
have been strained. Armenia accused Azerbaijan of backing the terrorist FKM activities.
3. Russia / Georgia / South Ossetia / Abkhazia – This region remains unstable with Russia
keeping troops in South Ossetia and Abkhazia against the will of Georgia. With Russian
guards on the South Ossetia and Abkhazia side of the border, Abkhazian militants and
criminals have conducted attacks within Georgia. These attacks serve as a key point of
contention between the Georgia and the breakaway areas.
4. Russian Naval Blockage of North Caspian Sea / Ahurastan, Azerbijan and Iran Claim to
Caspian Sea Oil Rights - The BTC pipeline resulted in Russian loss of control for a sizable
amount of energy resources in the region. To exacerbate matters, Ahurastan, Iran and
Azerbijan all claim rights to oil reserves in the Caspian Sea Region. This could lead to
regional conflicts over energy resources.
Information from Background Readings – Scenario Background

Strategic Direction
US National Interests and Objectives
1. Ensuring Strong Alliances – Turkey is a key state for building strong alliances in the
Caucasus region and the larger European theater. The National Security Strategy views
Turkey as key to the overall stability of this region. It is an ally and key influencer in the
region especially with Azerbaijan. Overflight access for Turkey is also important in the
ongoing operations with Afghanistan and Iraq. In the Strategic Environment, Iran and
Ahurastan threaten the international order so strong alliances with Turkey, specifically,
and the entire region provide an area for the U.S. to influence and meet National
Defense Strategy and National Security Strategy objectives of building strong allies,
winning our Nation’s Wars and Promoting Security.
2. Promote Security – With Russia’s presence in Georgia and Iran on the southern border
of the area, the U.S. has a national interest in securing this operational area of the
EUCOM AO. The recent formation of Ahurastan and Luristan further fragment the state
governments of the area and provide safe havens for terrorist activities. Iran is actively
seeking nuclear weapons, and this corridor could provide access to nuclear weapons
from the previous Soviet states.

Strategic Direction
US Regional Interest/Objectives
1. Resolve the Nagorno-Karbakh Conflict – This conflict has the capability to disrupt the
entire region. With the FKM conducting attacks in Armenia and the large number of
refugees, this continues to present destabilizing effects in the entire region. Russian
support of arms for Armenia could escalate the conflict as well as draw Turkey into the
conflict , as Turkey is an ally of Azerbaijan and already has poor relations with Armenia.
Increased conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan would allow Ahurastan to increase
cross border attacks on Azerbaijan, further driving the region into chaos and creating an
international security crisis.
2. Develop ties and cooperation with Russia to prevent more conflict in Georgia –
Russia’s involvement in South Ossetia and Abkhazia present another destabilizing effect
to the region. Continued or renewed conflict between Russia and Georgia could pull the
entire region into the war. This would destabilize the international security environment
and would also degrade international order.
3. Defeat local terror groups – The FKM has already had a destabilizing effect on the
region by attacking a nuclear power plant in Armenia. This attack increased tensions
between Armenia and Azerbaijan since Armenia claimed that Azerbaijan supported the
attacks. Cross border attacks into Azerbaijan by SAPA has disrupted the local economy
and creates ongoing instability.
4. Ensure that the BTC Pipeline is protected – The flow of the BTC pipeline is critical to the
economies of the region as well as in interest of U.S. corporations that have invested in
the region.

Strategic Direction
US Domestic Considerations
1. Protect the BTC Pipeline and U.S. Nationals working in the Region – The BTC pipeline
has enormous domestic considerations. There are multiple international corporations
that are working in the region and security of the American personnel working for those
corporations must be paramount. Security for the U.S. nationals and protecting the
economic development supports prosperity at home. The economic impact of the
pipeline to the region is important, but from a domestic standpoint, this pipeline
ensures a fair price for oil and gas in the United States. The development of this pipeline
reduced the international influence that Russia and Iran had on the oil market.