Caucasus Region Strategic Estimate: Security, Stability & US Interests

This strategic estimate provides a comprehensive analysis of the Caucasus region, focusing on the strategic environment, key regional players, and US interests. It outlines EUCOM's mission to foster regional security and stability, promote democracy, enable free markets, and counter terrorism. The estimate identifies key regional players such as Georgia, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Ahurastan, along with other state influences like Russia, the United States, and Kazakhstan. It also examines non-state actors, including the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and various insurgent groups. Flash points for potential conflicts, such as cross-border fire, the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, and Russian involvement in Georgia, are highlighted. The estimate emphasizes US national interests in ensuring strong alliances, promoting security, and resolving regional conflicts, as well as domestic considerations related to protecting the BTC pipeline and US nationals working in the region. Recent US activities, including diplomatic efforts and support for democratic development, are also summarized.

Strategic Estimate
Caucasus Region
Rank / Name
Date

Mission Statement
EUCOM conducts long term (5-10 years) military
operations, international military engagement, and
interagency partnering in the Caucasus Region to foster
regional security and stability, to influence the actions of
key players that will promote long term security and
prosperity in the region, to promote democracy, to enable
free and uncorrupt markets for trade, to disrupt and
defeat current and future terrorism networks and to
provide humanitarian support in areas of desperate need.

End State
Endstate: (1) Region is secure, prospering and at
peace; (2) Democratic countries are capable of
securing themselves and providing for their people;
(3) Energy resources and other sources of trade are
able to freely and securely flow without corruption;
(4) region is able to effectively police illegal activities
(e.g. drug/human trafficking) and (5) region is not a
safe haven for terrorist organizations.

Strategic Environment
Key Regional Players
1. Georgia – This state has aspirations of entering NATO and pursues ties with the US and Europe.
Russia has been heavily involved in Georgia and supplies many energy resources and is an influencer
in the attempt to persuade Georgia to cut ties with US, Europe and Turkey. After Russia invaded
Georgia in 2008, 38 countries and 15 international organizations pledged $3.7 billion to help rebuild
infrastructure, financial and banking sectors.
2. Turkey – This state has poor relationships with Armenia but pursues strong ties with Azerbaijan and
Georgia. The relationship with these countries comes from the BTC pipeline cooperation and a
mutual security interest against threats from Ahurastan. Turkey continues to develop relationships
with the U.S., especially in the areas of energy, trade, investment, security and stability.
3. Armenia – This state has closed borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan due to the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. The U.S. has close relations with Armenia and has provided nearly $2 billion in humanitarian
support to the state. Many U.S. corporations work within Armenia and the U.S. is attempting to help
Armenia to develop its economy and establish a democratic form of government. In spite of U.S.
support, Armenia maintains a positive relationship with Ahurastan.
4. Azerbaijan – This state has poor relations with Armenia due to the Nagorono-Karabakh dispute and
with Ahurastan due to it’s support of Armenia and the South Azeri People’s Army (SAPA). The U.S.
has been heavily involved in Azerbaijan to support political and economic transformation and has
provided $27 million in humanitarian, democracy and reform assistance in addition to investments in
oil developments by U.S. corporations.
5. Ahurastan – This is an area of Iran that has separated from Iran due to ethnic based reasons. This
area is only officially recognized by Oman and the UAE. This area supports the SAPA with cross border
fire in its conflict with Azerbaijan.
State Information Summarized from “Background Notes – US Department of State”

Strategic Environment
Other State Influences
1. Russia – This state has invaded Georgia (summer 2008) and continues to influence
Georgia by trying to persuade the state to sever ties to Europe and the United States.
While Russia has pulled back from most of Georgia, it still supports the breakaway
regions of Georgia know as South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
2. United States – The U.S. is actively involved in the support of democracy and
stabilization within the region. The U.S. has developed close ties with Armenia, Georgia
and Azerbaijan. Access to energy resources is a key component for U.S. involvement.
3. Kazakhstan – Although on the other side of the Caspian Sea, this state has been in with
competing oil claims with Azerbaijan.
State Information Summarized from “Country Profiles, Introduction from the CIA’s
The World Factbook

Strategic Environment
Other Regional Influences
1. BTC Oil Consortium (US, France, Italy,
Japan, Norway and Turkey
investments)
2. South Caucasus Gas Pipeline (SCGP)
(Iran and Russia investments)
3. Azeri-Chirag-Guneshi Oil Fields
(Feeds BTC)
4. Shah Deniz Gas Field (Feeds SCGP)
5. BP, Exxon, Mobile, Conoco Phillips,
Chevron, SOCAR, TPAO
Energy resources play a key role in this region. There are two main pipelines that
provide resources to the West and Russia. Competition for these resources
provide a key area of conflict in the Caspian Sea as many regional states lay claim
to those resources. In addition to the state actors in the region, there are many
non-state actors that support the energy exploration and export from the region.

Strategic Environment
Non-State Actors
1. Nagorno-Karabakh Republic – Officially part of Azerbaijan, this area is over 95%
Armenian and there are approximately 750,000 refugees from the area in Azerbaijan.
Armenia and Azerbaijan both claim this disputed area.
2. Free Karabakh Movement (FKM)- An insurgent group formed from Azeris that have been
driven from the Nagorno-Karabakh area.
3. South Azeri People’s Army (SAPA) – A fundamentalist insurgent group which was trained
in Ahurastan and is supported by cross border fire from Ahurastan. The primary goal of
this organization is to overthrow the secular government in Azerbaijan.
4. National Liberation Movement of Southern Azerbaijan (NLMSA) – An Azeri movement
dedicated to preserving the personal freedoms of the Turkish Azeri population in the
Ahurastan area of Iran.
5. Radio Tabriz – An anti-American radio station that claims to be from Azerbaijan but in
reality is located in the area of Ahurastan.
6. Abkhazia and South Ossetia - Independent areas of Georgia that broke away from
Georgia and precipitated the invasion of Russia in 2008. Heavily reliant on Russia for
economic and security support.
Information from Background Readings – Scenario Background

Strategic Environment
Recent Key Events
1. 2008 Conflict Between Russia and Georgia – The separation of South Ossetia and
Abkhazia from Georgia has caused conflict in which Russia supported the break away
areas. Russia still maintains a troop presence in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Consequently, Georgia does not have complete control of is sovereign area and has
foreign nation troops stationed in its area.
2. SAPA Operations in Azerbaijan – SAPA has been supported by both Iran and now the
break away area of Ahurastan.
3. 2015 Break Away of Ahurastan from Iran – The ethnically based area of northern Iran
broke away from Iran in 2015 and declared independence from Iran in 2016. Currently
only recognized internationally by Oman and the UAE. This area provides cross border fire
support to the SAPA.
4. Competing Claims to Caspian Sea oil Rights – Ahurastan, Iran and Azerbaijan all claim
rights to oil reserves in portions of the Caspian Sea.
5. November 2016 Attack of Nuclear Power Station at Metsamor, Armenia – The Free
Karabakh Movement attacked the Armenian power station at Metsamor. Armenia blamed
Azerbaijan for backing the FKM attack which damaged the station, causing leaks that were
detected in neighboring countries.
6. February 2016 Split of Iran’s Southwest Provinces – This area does not support terrorist
activities nor does it lay claim to any areas outside of their own territory.
Information from Background Readings – Scenario Background

Strategic Environment
Flash Points for Potential Conflicts
1. Cross Border Fire from Ahurastan/SAPA Activities– The Ahurastan support of SAPA has
the potential to destabilize the region. Azerbaijan has requested U.S. support to assist
with the increased movements of SAPA insurgents in the border areas. SAPA is increasing
activity in the border regions, using the areas for training, refitting and staging for cross
border raids.
2. Azerbaijan and Armenia Conflict over the Nagorno-Karbakh region – After the FKM
attacked a nuclear power plant in Armenia, relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan
have been strained. Armenia accused Azerbaijan of backing the terrorist FKM activities.
3. Russia / Georgia / South Ossetia / Abkhazia – This region remains unstable with Russia
keeping troops in South Ossetia and Abkhazia against the will of Georgia. With Russian
guards on the South Ossetia and Abkhazia side of the border, Abkhazian militants and
criminals have conducted attacks within Georgia. These attacks serve as a key point of
contention between the Georgia and the breakaway areas.
4. Russian Naval Blockage of North Caspian Sea / Ahurastan, Azerbijan and Iran Claim to
Caspian Sea Oil Rights - The BTC pipeline resulted in Russian loss of control for a sizable
amount of energy resources in the region. To exacerbate matters, Ahurastan, Iran and
Azerbijan all claim rights to oil reserves in the Caspian Sea Region. This could lead to
regional conflicts over energy resources.
Information from Background Readings – Scenario Background

Strategic Direction
US National Interests and Objectives
1. Ensuring Strong Alliances – Turkey is a key state for building strong alliances in the
Caucasus region and the larger European theater. The National Security Strategy views
Turkey as key to the overall stability of this region. It is an ally and key influencer in the
region especially with Azerbaijan. Overflight access for Turkey is also important in the
ongoing operations with Afghanistan and Iraq. In the Strategic Environment, Iran and
Ahurastan threaten the international order so strong alliances with Turkey, specifically,
and the entire region provide an area for the U.S. to influence and meet National
Defense Strategy and National Security Strategy objectives of building strong allies,
winning our Nation’s Wars and Promoting Security.
2. Promote Security – With Russia’s presence in Georgia and Iran on the southern border
of the area, the U.S. has a national interest in securing this operational area of the
EUCOM AO. The recent formation of Ahurastan and Luristan further fragment the state
governments of the area and provide safe havens for terrorist activities. Iran is actively
seeking nuclear weapons, and this corridor could provide access to nuclear weapons
from the previous Soviet states.

Strategic Direction
US Regional Interest/Objectives
1. Resolve the Nagorno-Karbakh Conflict – This conflict has the capability to disrupt the
entire region. With the FKM conducting attacks in Armenia and the large number of
refugees, this continues to present destabilizing effects in the entire region. Russian
support of arms for Armenia could escalate the conflict as well as draw Turkey into the
conflict , as Turkey is an ally of Azerbaijan and already has poor relations with Armenia.
Increased conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan would allow Ahurastan to increase
cross border attacks on Azerbaijan, further driving the region into chaos and creating an
international security crisis.
2. Develop ties and cooperation with Russia to prevent more conflict in Georgia –
Russia’s involvement in South Ossetia and Abkhazia present another destabilizing effect
to the region. Continued or renewed conflict between Russia and Georgia could pull the
entire region into the war. This would destabilize the international security environment
and would also degrade international order.
3. Defeat local terror groups – The FKM has already had a destabilizing effect on the
region by attacking a nuclear power plant in Armenia. This attack increased tensions
between Armenia and Azerbaijan since Armenia claimed that Azerbaijan supported the
attacks. Cross border attacks into Azerbaijan by SAPA has disrupted the local economy
and creates ongoing instability.
4. Ensure that the BTC Pipeline is protected – The flow of the BTC pipeline is critical to the
economies of the region as well as in interest of U.S. corporations that have invested in
the region.

Strategic Direction
US Domestic Considerations
1. Protect the BTC Pipeline and U.S. Nationals working in the Region – The BTC pipeline
has enormous domestic considerations. There are multiple international corporations
that are working in the region and security of the American personnel working for those
corporations must be paramount. Security for the U.S. nationals and protecting the
economic development supports prosperity at home. The economic impact of the
pipeline to the region is important, but from a domestic standpoint, this pipeline
ensures a fair price for oil and gas in the United States. The development of this pipeline
reduced the international influence that Russia and Iran had on the oil market.

Strategic Direction
Recent US Activities in the Region
1. Diplomatic
a. The U.S. has diplomatically supported the Caucasus region states since the
collapse of the Soviet Union. This support has been focused on developing a
democratic type of government for each state in the region. Specific diplomatic
activity has been in the form of supporting acceptance of the states into the larger
European community and NATO alliances. This effort has been to ensure that the
social, economic and political process in the area do not support or fall into the
hands of radical Islam or Russian influence.
b. The U.S. has agreed to help Georgia work to obtain membership in NATO. This will
be accomplished through the use of Annual Action Plans to further Georgia’s
ability to successfully complete a Membership Action Plan.
c. The Foreign Operations Appropriations (H.R. 2506) has allowed the U.S. to provide
aid to Azerbaijan in return for their assistance in the War on Terrorism.
2. Economic
a. The U.S. has provided economic support to the various states within the region.
There has been humanitarian support to refugees from the N-K conflict and to
those that have been displaced. Economic support in the form of a national use of
power has been displayed by the development of the BTC Pipeline. This economic
development and support helped the Caucasus region take oil and gas reserves to
the international market. In addition, it helped the U.S. to lessen the control that
Iran and Russia had on the international oil markets.

Strategic Direction
Recent US Activities in the Region
2. Economic
b. In 2008, the budget for assistance to the region was $1.13 billion. This economic
assistance was directed toward security assistance. In addition, cumulative U.S. aid from
1992-2008 was $4.761 billion.
3. Military
a. Army Engineer units have provided assistance with nation-building and infrastructure
repair in Azerbaijan and Georgia. This is seen as a stability operation and assists with
creating strong allies in the region.
b. U.S. Special Forces have conducted limited foreign internal defense (FID) operations
with Azerbaijan to assist with combating SAPA raids in the border region.
c. Initiation of the Caspian Guard to establish an integrated airspace of the Caspian Sea
region provides stability for oil exploration and production. This is in response to
aggressive actions by Iran.
c. The U.S. has provided training to the Georgian Army in order to bolster the state’s
defense capabilities and help ensure stability in the region.
Information obtained from Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia:
Security Issues and Implications for U.S. Interests

Strategic Direction
Recent US Activities in the Region
4. Information
a. EUCOM has created the South Caucasus Clearing house. This program is utilized to
facilitate cooperation by sharing data on security issues between the region states.
Information obtained from Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia:
Security Issues and Implications for U.S. Interests

Challenges and Opportunities
1. Georgia
a. Russia has troops stationed on the border of Georgia and South Ossetia and
Abkhazia – this presents a challenge to moving Georgia into NATO and the larger
European community, since Georgia does not have control of its sovereign area.
b. Russia has attempted to influence Georgia to stop its attempts to move into NATO
and stop security cooperation with the U.S. and Turkey. - this presents a challenge
to creating strong allies in the region and promoting security. This could be an
opportunity to engage Russia to create a mutually beneficial treaty to ensure
security in the Caucasus region.
2. Azerbaijan
a. Ongoing conflict with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh disagreement – this
conflict has the potential to cause regional conflict. Turkey, as an ally of
Azerbaijan, could also be drawn into the conflict. If the U.S. could be a key
diplomatic resource and help settle this dispute, it would help to ensure economic
growth, stability and possibly further the growth of democratic governments in
the region.
b. SAPA has become a more powerful terrorist force in the south and has great
potential to disrupt the economic growth and ongoing government of Azerbaijan –
this terrorist organization has the potential to disrupt stability and security in the
region.
Information from Background Readings – Scenario Background

Challenges and Opportunities
c. The distribution of economic benefit from the BTC pipeline is not equally shared
between northern and southern sections of Azerbaijan – this creates an area in
the south that may be more susceptible to Islamic and insurgent forces such as
SAPA. Equal distribution of the economic wealth provides an opportunity help
eliminate support for SAPA and increase stability.
d. Ahurastan – this region of Iran supports SAPA terrorists who would like to
overthrow the government of Azerbaijan, has competing claims to Azeri oil
reserves, and supports the south Azeri movement which opposes the secular
government of Baku.
3. Armenia
a. Ongoing conflict with Azerbaijan over the N-K area.
b. The N-K conflict has strained relations with Turkey and caused border closing –
this is an opportunity in that if the N-K conflict can be resolved, Turkey may open
its borders and aid in the economic development of Armenia.
c. The Free Karbakh Movement (FKM) poses a terrorist treat to Armenia – This
organization attacked a nuclear power plant causing radiation leakage – this
organization must be minimized to maintain stability in the state.
4. Turkey
a. The threat of Ahurastan invading Azerbajian – this would lead to a response from
Turkey, potentially causing a large regional conflict.
Information from Background Readings – Scenario Background

Challenges and Opportunities
3. Turkey
b. Radiation leaking from Metsamor in Armenia could create an environmental
disaster. The disaster could deteriorate the poor relations that Turkey has with
Armenia. The U.S. has an opportunity to assist both Armenia and Turkey with the
radiation leak, which in turn could avert an environmental disaster and improve
relations in the region.
4. Ahurastan
a. It is not officially recognized on an international basis and may cause internal state
conflict if Iran tries to reclaim it. Action by Iran could spill over into the bordering
Caucasus states, creating a regional security issue.
b. It currently opposes U.S. involvement in the region and supports radio broadcasts
that try to turn the populace against U.S. involvement. It purports that the U.S. is
waging a war against Islam. This could cause instability in the region and have
larger implications in the Middle East
c. It lays claims to oil rights that belong to Azerbaijan. If Ahurastan were to gain
access to Caspian Sea oil, it would allow a rogue area of Iran to influence
international oil and gas prices.
Information from Background Readings – Scenario Background

Assumptions
1. Russia will continue to pressure Georgia to cut its ties with U.S. and stop its attempts to
enter NATO.
2. Iran will attempt to increase its control over the Caspian Sea and oil rights
3. The dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh will not be settled
without international mediation and involvement from other countries.
4. The threat to the BTC pipeline will continue to grow as Russia, Iran and other countries
attempt to increase their influence in the international energy market.
5. The security environment of the region will not improve unless the U.S. and allies shape
and influence the regional actors.
6. Iran will stand by its agreement not to use nuclear weapons.

Regional Analysis
Georgia
Population - 4,570,934
Demographics - Georgian 83.8%, Azeri 6.5%, Armenian 5.7%, Russian 1.5% and other 2.5%
History - Georgia was forcibly incorporated into USSR in 1921 and regained its independence
in 1991 upon dissolution of the USSR. Georgia currently has two breakaway regions that are
support by Russia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In 2008 Russia invaded to support the
breakaway regions but has since pulled back, leaving some troops in those areas.
Religions - The primary religion of the country is Orthodox Christian with a small Muslim
population.
Economy – The Georgian economy centers around agricultural activities and mining and has
a small industrial sector. Electrical energy is produced by hydro electric power while the
country imports natural gas and oil. The GDP sustained growth of 10% during 2006-2007 but
slowed after the conflict in Russia in 2008-2009. The economy rebounded in 2010-2012 but
unemployment is above 16%.
Key Individuals – President – Mikheil Saakashvili, and Prime Minister – Bidzina Ivanishvili

Regional Analysis
Georgia
Government – Georgia has a unicameral parliament consisting of 150 seats, and elections
were last held in October of 2012. There are 15 different political parties.
Communications – 4.43 million cell phones; 1 state owned public television station; 8
privately owned TV stations; 2 state owned public radio stations, and several dozen privately
owned radio stations; 1.3 million internet users.
Impact of Factors on Relations with Other Countries – Russia supported the breakaway
regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in 2008 and continues to support those areas with
troops. Not having control of the sovereign area has made it difficult for Georgia to enter
NATO. Russian border guards in the breakaway areas have also allowed criminal elements
from Azerbaijan to cross the border and conduct sporadic attacks on Georgian infrastructure.
Interests – Regain sovereignty of break away areas and remove Russian troops from Georgia.
Objectives – Gain acceptance into NATO and European Union in order to increase economic
prosperity.

Regional Analysis
Georgia
Current U.S. Programs – U.S. Army Engineers have been rebuilding infrastructure to include
rail systems; refugee assistance for those displaced due to breakaway areas; U.S. support of
Georgia for entry into EU and NATO
COA (most likely) – Georgia will continue to push for acceptance into NATO and the EU.
Georgia will pursue diplomatic action with Russia regarding the breakaway areas of Georgia.
COA (most dangerous) – Military action to recover sovereignty of South Ossetia and
Abkhazia.
Degree of Interest in the Outcome – Georgia will have international backing to work
diplomatically with Russia for the removal of troops and recovery of the breakaway areas.
Under its own power, Georgia will likely not have enough influence to make progress without
international support. Military action against Russia would not have a positive outcome for
Georgia and would hurt their objectives of entering NATO and the EU.

Regional Analysis
Armenia
Population – 2,970,495
Demographics – 97.9% Armenian
History – Armenia was conquered by the Red Army in 1920. They attained independence in
1991 and fought with Azerbaijan until 1994 over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. A cease fire
was reached in 1994 with Armenian forces holding Nagorno-Karbakha. Turkey closed the
common border with Armenia in 1994 in support of Azerbaijan.
Religions – 94.7% Armenian Apostolic
Economy – Armenia had several years of double-digit economic growth leading up to 2009,
but during that year the GDP declined 14%. There were sharp declines in construction. The
economy began to recover in 2010 and slowed again in 2011. Armenia currently relies on
small-scale agriculture. They have limited availability for trade as they only have open
borders with Georgia and Iran. Armenia is dependent on Russian support.
Key Individuals – Serzh Sargsian is the chief of state and Tigran Sargsian is the Prime
Minister

Regional Analysis
Armenia
Government – Armenia has a unicameral national assembly and last held elections in May
2012. There are 8 different political parties.
Communications – 3.211 million cell phones; 2 public television networks, 40 privately
owned stations; Russian broadcast channels are available; 1 state run radio station and 20
privately owned stations.
Impact of Factors on Relations with Other Countries – the dispute over the Nagorono-
Karabakh region has strained relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan and creates regional
instability.
Interests – Reliable source of energy to sustain manufacturing; controlling water pollution
Objectives – Maintain close ties with Russia and Iran to counter Azerbaijan’s close ties with
Turkey.
Current US Programs – Funding of $188 million for peace and security assistance; WMD
detection and interdiction training; funding to enhance the safety and security for
Metzamor nuclear reactor

Regional Analysis
Armenia
COA (most likely) – Maintain status quo regarding N-K conflict
COA (most dangerous) – Attack Azerbaijan to gain full control of the N-K area
Degree of Interest in the outcome – Armenia has been in a standoff over the N-K area with
Azerbaijan since 1994. It lacks the ability to end the dispute and gain control of the N-K
area by attacking Azerbaijan. Armenia will not use power other than diplomatic to try to
influence the outcome

Regional Analysis
Ahurastan
Population – 15,000,000
Demographics Demographics – 80% Azeri, 9% Kurdish, 11% (Arabic, Armenian, Jewish,
Assyrian)
History – History – The leader of SANAM, Chehregani, founded in 2014, convinced ethnic
Azeris to break away from Iran and form an autonomous territory. In 2015, the NLSMA,
Dilenchy, started another Azeri national movement speaking out for saving the Turkish Azeri
population from the ‘yolk of Persian chauvinism.’ NLMSA militants backed by Iranian armed
forces stationed in northwest Iran. Garrisons were abandoned and troops were ordered to
leave their weapons allowing the ethnic Azeris in the provinces of Ardebil, East Azerbaijan,
Gilan, Qazvin, Hamadan, Kurdestan, West Azerbaijan and Zanjan to form the ‘Republic of
Ahurastan.’
Religions – 89% Shi’a, 10% Sunni, 1% Non-Muslims
Economy – Ahurastan’s economy is marked by a bloated inefficient state sector that it
inherited from Iran. It has traditionally been agricultural, with some industrialization and
economic modernization. Since breaking from Iran, Ahurastan is totally dependent on oil
imports from Kazakhstan and natural gas from Turkmenistan. High oil prices has driven the
debt rate up to $2 billion a year which has caused high unemployment and inflation.

Regional Analysis
Ahurastan
Key Individuals: President – Piruz Dilenchy; Prime Minister – Mahmudali Chehreganli
President - Piruz Dilenchy
Prime Minister – Mahmudali Chehreganli
Government (short description) – The Ahurastanians held elections in the fall of 2017. The
new ‘constitution’ creates the ‘Council of Leaders’, an executive branch (the president) and
judicial authority (Supreme Court.) Ahurastan consists of eight break-away provinces of Iran,
headed by a ‘governor general.’
Communications – Central government owns all computer and phone networks; three
primary access points between the internet and Ahurastan’s network, two from Turkey and
third via Iran (disabled); land-based telephony access via Iran and Turkey; commercial
network equipment that can block popular social networking sites
Interests (at least 3 national, strategic interests) – 1) The ‘country’ wants to gain recognition
as a country across the world, Wants to improves the well being of her citizens
economically, and wants to secure lasting peace for its citizens.
Strategic; wants to ensure Oil resource flows well for herself and other regions

Regional Analysis
Ahurastan
Objectives – Gain recognition across the world.
-Gain stability within the area.
Current U.S. Programs – Supporting peace initiatives in Ahurastan area, defeat terrorist
operation in the area.
COA (most likely) – Maintain status quo of separating from Iran
COA (most dangerous) – Continue to lay claim to oil deposits belonging Azerbaijan and
attack Azerbaijan to try and gain access to the oil fileds.
Degree of Interest in the Outcome – Ahurastan survival as a country depends on achieving
recognition across the world which will pave way business corporation with other nations.

Regional Analysis
Azerbaijan
Objectives – Secure oil rights in the Caspian Sea to ensure future economic growth; Secure
border with Ahurastan to reduce cross border raids from SAPA and reduce risk of secular
government overthrow.
Current U.S. Programs – Refugee assistance; Army Engineer Units rebuilding infrastructure
to include rail systems, road and water distribution, and paving of airfields.
COA (most likely) – Azerbaijan will focus troops on the border of Ahurastan to reduce
effectiveness of cross border raids; continue to request support of U.S. and Turkey to
enforce and protect Caspian Sea oil rights.
COA (most dangerous) – Azerbaijan will attack Armenia to settle the conflict of the N-K
region and to regain sovereignty of that area.
Degree of Interest in the Outcome – Azerbaijan has the power to influence the outcome of
border security but may need regional assistance to fully secure the border. If Azerbaijan
decides to attack Armenia, it will create a regional conflict that it does not have the power
to settle.

Regional Analysis
Azerbaijan
Key Individuals – President – Ilham Aliyev; Prime Minister – Artur Rasizade
Government – Azerbaijan has a unicameral national assembly with 125 seats and last held
elections on 7 Nov 2010. The country has 17 political parties.
Communications – 10.12 million cell phones; 3 state run and 1 public television channels; 4
domestic TV channels; 1 state run radio station and 1 public radio station; 2.42 million
internet users
Impact of Factors on Relations with Other Countries – The N-K conflict has an impact of
instability in the region and creates tensions between Turkey (which supports Azerbaijan),
Armenia and Azerbaijan. The rights to gas and oil reserves in the Caspian Sea serve as a
point of contention with Russia, Iran, Ahurastan and Kazakhstan. Internationally, trafficking
in persons creates issues since Azerbaijan has not fully addressed or solved the problem.
Interests – Settling the N-K conflict with Armenia;

Regional Analysis
Azerbaijan
Objectives – Secure oil rights in the Caspian Sea to ensure future economic growth; Secure
border with Ahurastan to reduce cross border raids from SAPA and reduce risk of secular
government overthrow.
Current U.S. Programs – Refugee assistance; Army Engineer Units rebuilding infrastructure
to include rail systems, road and water distribution, and paving of airfields.
COA (most likely) – Azerbaijan will focus troops on the border of Ahurastan to reduce
effectiveness of cross border raids; continue to request support of U.S. and Turkey to
enforce and protect Caspian Sea oil rights.
COA (most dangerous) – Azerbaijan will attack Armenia to settle the conflict of the N-K
region and to regain sovereignty of that area.
Degree of Interest in the Outcome – Azerbaijan has the power to influence the outcome of
border attack from Ahurastan but may need regional assistance to fully secure the border. If
the Azerbaijan decides to attack Armenia, it will create a regional conflict that it does do not
have the power to settle.

Regional Analysis
Turkey
Population – 79,749,461
Demographics – 75% Turkish, 18% Kurdish, 12% Other
History – Turkey was founded in 1923 from the Ottoman Empire. There have been several
periods of military rule, but after each period the county has returned to civilian rule and is
still under civilian control today. Turkey has an ongoing conflict with the Kurdistan Worker’s
Party, but the group has largely withdrawn into northern Iraq. Turkey is a member of the UN
and NATO.
Religions – Muslim 99.8%
Economy – Turkey operates as a free market economy with the largest segment of the
economy being industry and service, although agriculture has traditionally been a sector
leader. After a financial crisis in 2001, Turkey adopted financial reforms and is now sound
economically. Turkey dependence on imported gas and oil will be reduced with the
successful completion of the BTC pipeline.

Regional Analysis
Turkey
Key Individuals – President – Abdullah Gul; and Prime Minister – Recep Tayyip
Government – Turkey is a unicameral grand national assembly with 550 seats. The last
elections were held 12 June 2011. Turkey has 11 political parties.
Communications – 65.322 million cell phones; multiple privately owned television stations;
more than 1,000 privately owned radio stations; 27.233 million internet users.
Impact of Factors on Relations with Other Countries – Support of Azerbaijan has strained
relations with Armenia causing Turkey to close its border with Armenia.
Interests – Resolving relations with Armenia so Turkey can establish overflight rights.
Objectives – Supporting Azerbaijan regarding ongoing conflict with Armenia and cross
border raids from Ahurastan
Current U.S. Programs – Assistance with nuclear reactor leak in Armenia

Regional Analysis
Turkey
COA (most likely) - pursuing diplomatic relations with Armenia and other international
agencies to open borders to Armenia
COA (most dangerous) – Military strike against Armenia or Ahurastan to support Azerbaijan
Degree of Interest in the Outcome – Turkey has the military power to strike against Armenia
but it would cause international outrage and not have the desired effect. A military strike
against Ahurastan in response to an Ahurastan attack on Azerbaijan could escalate into a
larger regional conflict.

Regional Analysis
Russia
Population – 142,517,670
Demographics – 79.8% Russian, 3.8% Tartar, 2% Ukrainian, 1.2% Bashkir, 1.2% Chuvash,
1.1% Other
History – Founded in the 12th century from the Mongol domination. Communists under
Vladimir Lenin formed the USSR and communist rule was strengthened during the rule of
Josif Stalin. In December 1991, the USSR splintered into Russia and 14 independent
republics.
Religions – 20% Russian Orthodox, 15% Muslim, 2% other Christian
Economy – Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has moved to a more market
based global economy. The private sector is still heavily regulated by the state. In 2011
Russia became the world’s leading oil producer and holds the largest reserves of natural gas.
Russia joined the World Trade Organization in 2012.
Key Individuals – President Validimir Putin; and Head of Gov’t – Dmitriy Medvedev

Regional Analysis
Russia
Government – Bicameral Federal Assembly with an upper house of 166 seats and a lower
house of 450 seats. There are 6 political parties in Russia.
Communications – 236.7 million cell phones; 6 national TV stations, 3,300 national stations
(over 2/3 controlled by government); 2 state run radio networks; 2,400 public and
commercial networks; 40.853 million internet users.
Impact of Factors on Relations with Other Countries – Russia’s support of South Ossetia and
Abkhazia created bad relations with Georgia. A treaty with Azerbaijan to manage the
Caspian Sea oil reserves is disputed by Iran, which has a differing opinion on how the sea
should be delineated.
COA (most likely) - Russia will continue to have a presence in the breakaway areas of South
Ossetia and Abkhazia in order to provide a hedge against NATO and the involvement of the
U.S. in the Caucasus Region.
COA (most dangerous) - Russia will move troops back into Georgia to assert control.
Degree of Interest in the Outcome – Russia has the power and influence to keep troops in
the breakaway areas and has a keen interest to hedge against NATO in the region.

General Description: The US enhances focus of intelligence gathering in the region with
both military, civilian, and host nation resources. Strong international investment is
encouraged to provide balanced infrastructure support to transport energy resources that
benefits all nations equitably. Country borders are the main problem in this region, and
several means to improve them will be pursued that provides enhanced security for all
players involved, again in an equitable fashion. Quiet, private, diplomatic efforts – both
bilateral and multilateral – encouraging democratic principles in the region and cooperation
on a variety of mutual issues.
Diplomatic:
• Influence: How can the U.S. influence change through diplomacy?
• Pressure: What pressure can the U.S. put on key players to help stabilize the region?
• Engage: What types of engagement and with whom will help to strengthen the region and
how?
• Encourage: Explain what diplomatic dialogue can get key regional players to work
together.
US Option #1:
Enhance US Intelligence, Increase Economic Development, and Diplomatic efforts

Information:
• Positive: What information shows a positive effort in bringing peace to the region?
• Negative: What information negatively disrupts peace in the region?
Military:
• Provide: What can the military provide in terms of support or actions to help make the
situation better?
• Enhance: What can the military do to enhance readiness?
US Option #1:
Increase US Intelligence, Increase Economic Development, and Diplomatic efforts

Economic:
Support: What type of economic support would help to rejuvenate the regions economy?
Partner: What partnerships with key players should be formed and for what purpose?
Continue: What economic efforts need to continue?
Risks: Describe 3 risks associated with your Options.
US Option #1:
Enhance US Intelligence, Increase Economic Development, and Diplomatic efforts

Adequate: Does your Option accomplish the mission and why?
Feasible: Does your Option accomplish the mission within the resource limitations and
how?
Acceptable: Is your Option worth the cost or risk and why?
Distinguishable: How is your Option different from the other two?
Complete: Does your Option meet the objectives, within a good time estimate and
accomplish the end state?
Initial Screening Criteria for Option #1

General Description: The US continues current policies in the Caucasus region with greater
priorities on the military and information instruments of national power. The US establishes
a joint forward operating base (JFOB) in Azerbaijan manned by US forces on a rotational
basis. The US and its regional partners participate in joint exercises and mil-to-mil contact
events to enhance regional security and demonstrate resolve in defending the security of
Azerbaijan, Georgia, and other regional partners. The JFOB plays a primary role of
protecting hydrocarbon resources and infrastructure along the pipelines and Caspian Sea.
Diplomatic:
• Influence: How can the U.S. influence change through diplomacy?
• Pressure: What pressure can the U.S. put on key players to help stabilize the region?
• Engage: What types of engagement and with whom will help to strengthen the region and
how?
• Encourage: Explain what diplomatic dialogue can get key regional players to work
together.
US Option #2:
Increase US Military Presence to enhance Regional Security

Information:
•Positive: What information shows a positive effort in bring peace to the region?
•Negative: What information negatively disrupts peace in the region?
Military:
• Provide: What can the military provide in terms of support or actions to help make the
situation better?
• Enhance: What can the military do to enhance readiness?
US Option #2:
Increase US Military presence to enhance Regional Security

Economic:
• Partner: What partnerships with key players should be formed and for what purpose?
• Support: What type of economic support would help to rejuvenate the regions economy?
Risks: Describe 3 risks associated with your Options.
US Option #2:
Increase US Military presence to enhance Regional Security

Adequate: Does your Option accomplish the mission and why?
Feasible: Does your Option accomplish the mission within the resource limitations and
how?
Acceptable: Is your Option worth the cost or risk and why?
Distinguishable: How is your Option different from the other two?.
Complete: Does your Option meet the objectives, within a good time estimate and
accomplish the end state?
Initial Screening Criteria for Option #2

General Description:
The US should recruit local allies that can easily get the ear of the local residences so that
they can explain why the US is involving itself in the region affairs and that US is not
against Islam but regional peace and economic propensity for all
Diplomatic: Through diplomacy the above option can be first entrenched in the local allies
that will be recruited so that can advance the agenda of the US. Diplomatic dialogue will
ensure that the allies fully understand the mission first before they can go back to the
people to explain the real objectives of the US. Three examples of this initiative; US peace
initiative in Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia
US Option #3:
Recruit local allies to advance US agenda

Information: You must include at least 3 examples (2 positive examples and 1 negative
example) of US inform and influence activities (IIA).
Positives; 1) The information on reduced terrorist attacks in the regions shows positive
progress being made.
2) The information that Russia withdrew troops from Georgia boosts attainment of
peace in the whole region including
Military: You must include at least 3 examples of US military operations (2 examples of
military action or support and 1 example of readiness).
US Military support in Somalia and Iran has helped boost peace in the area. The military
interventions such as providing intelligence to the local Authorities has helped to foil
many terrorist attacks.
To enhance readiness the Military can train local Police and army on tactics to use when
there is an emergency. This has been successfully been used in Iraq.
US Option #3:
Recruit local allies to advance US agenda

Economic: You must include at least 3 examples of US economic assistance. Remember to
include Phase 0 Shaping Activities such as security cooperation.
The US should form partnership with all the local leaders in these regions because they
are the ones close to the masses where insurgents and terrorist draw support in terms
logistics and fighters. These local leaders will improve mutual understanding among all the
key players in the industry. The US has used these method in a number of cases it has
handled. Example of this include in Somalia, Iraq and Afghanistan.
The economic support which will rejuvenate this region economy include improving the
educational standards of the people in this region. The US can advance credits to local
companies in this region to spur economic growth.
Risks:T You must describe at least 3 examples.
1)The local partnerships formed may not yield much because of deep rooted difference
between US and the some parts of the region.
2) Those who will be first to co-operate with US risk being isolated as betrayers
3) Some parts of the region may refuse to cede some grounds in order to create
mutual benefits and loses. This is necessary for peace.
US Option #3:
Recruit local allies to advance US agenda

Adequate: Does your Option accomplish the mission and why?
Yes, my option accomplish the mission because it leads to formation of long standing
solution in the region.
Feasible: Does your Option accomplish the mission within the resource limitations and
how?
The option is feasible because the option largely depends on building consensus on
divergent views. Therefore the budget will not be too huge that with will be impossible to
meet.
Acceptable: Is your Option worth the cost or risk and why?
The option is worth the cost because it achieves the mission of securing peace and
economic prosperity in the region.
Distinguishable: How is your Option different from the other two?
This option is mainly driven by the local leadership as opposed to option 2 and 1 where the
US is the main driver of the operation.
Complete: Does your Option meet the objectives, within a good time estimate and
accomplish the end state?
Yes, this option ensures that the region achieves the desired end results of long lasting
peace and economic prosperity within an estimated bracket of 2-5 years.
Initial Screening Criteria for Option #3
Recruit local allies to advance US agenda

Evaluate Options
Evaluation Criteria Option
Diplomatic Option 2
Military Option 3
The BTC Pipeline is
secured 3 2 3
International
businesses operate in a
safe environment
1 3 2
Democratic standards
are encouraged
3 1 3
Azerbaijan and
Armenia reach
agreement on N-K
2 1 2
Terrorist threats are
defeated
2 3 3
Regional Stability is
achieved
3 2 3
Totals 14 12 16
0=none, 1=slight, 2=moderate, 3=high (evaluation of criteria) DO NOT use the same value
for a criterion in all three options.

Recommendation
US Option #: 3 Recruit local allies to advance US agenda
Key Points of Justification (Why is the recommendation superior
to the other two options):
• It involves local leadership
•Likely to cost smaller amount of budget compared to the
other two options.
•It is likely to take shorter period of time.