Evaluating the Long-Term Economic Effects of China's One-Child Policy

This essay examines the economic implications of China's One-Child Policy, implemented in 1979 to control the country's growing population. While the policy initially appeared to have positive economic effects by reducing the population burden, it has also led to negative demographic consequences. Specifically, the policy has contributed to a declining fertility rate, resulting in a smaller young-age population and a rapidly increasing old-age population. This demographic shift is expected to cause a significant decrease in the working-age population, creating an imbalance between different age groups and increasing the economic and social dependency burden on the country. The essay concludes that while the One-Child Policy may have had short-term economic benefits, its long-term effects pose significant challenges to China's sustainable economic development.

Running head: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Economic Development
Name of the Student
Name of the University
Author Note

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Table of Contents
Introduction......................................................................................................................................2
One-Child Policy.............................................................................................................................2
Success of the birth control policies of China.................................................................................3
Failures of the birth control policy..................................................................................................4
Conclusion.......................................................................................................................................6
References........................................................................................................................................7

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Introduction
China has been one of the most populous nations in the world, whose population had
been increasing significantly over the last century. This immense population burden affected the
economy of the country significantly, hampering the economic, social and welfare of the
residents of the country considerably. This led to the implementation of different birth control
policies in the country, which included the famous “One-Child Policy”, in 1979.
One-Child Policy
Introduced in 1979, the One-Child Policy targeted in encouraging family planning and
control of birth, which was effectively practiced by the majority of the population of the country
since 1980, barring several exceptions (Shambaugh 2013). This law in turn led to the prevention
of nearly 200 to 400 million births.
Figure 1: Changes in the size of average household in China over the years

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(Source: Cameron et al. 2013)
Success of the birth control policies of China
The primary focus of the birth control policy of the country being that of reduction of the
population burden of the country, the policies succeeded significantly.
Figure 2: Per capita GDP of China over the years
(Source: Shambaugh 2013)
Failures of the birth control policy
The policies of the country to reduce the birth rate in the country actually had several
negative implications, primarily in terms of the demographic characteristics of the country. Due

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to the fall in the fertility rate, the current and future young age population of the country is
expected to be much less than the future old age population of the country (Economist.com,
2018).
Figure 3: Increase in the old age population of China
(Source: Weebly.com, 2018)
On the other hand, due to the fall of the young age population in the country in the
coming years, the working age population in the coming years is also expected to decrease
significantly:

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Figure 4: Decrease in the working age population (15-59 years) of China and others
(Source: Weebly.com, 2018)
The fall in the working age population in China is expected to be considerably higher
than the same for the world as a whole. This is expected to increase the gap between the
populations of different ages in the country over the coming years:
Figure 5: Increasing age burden in the country
(Source: Economist.com, 2018)

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The above figure shows that the stringent birth control policies in China has led to the
creation of a gap in the different age groups, which is expected to rise even more, thereby
increasing the economic and social dependency burden in the country.
Conclusion
From the above discussion, it becomes evident that the birth control policies in China
though showed positive economic implications apparently in the initial periods; however, the
same have created the possibility of a fall in the working age population and a rise in the old age
population.
References
Cameron, L., Erkal, N., Gangadharan, L. and Meng, X., 2013. Little emperors: behavioral
impacts of China's One-Child Policy. Science, 339(6122), pp.953-957.

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Economist.com (2018). Demography, growth and inequality Age invaders. [online]
Economist.com. Available at: https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21601248-generation-
old-people-about-change-global-economy-they-will-not-all-do-so [Accessed 9 Feb. 2018].
Economist.com (2018). The most surprising demographic crisis. [online] The Economist.
Available at: http://www.economist.com/node/18651512 [Accessed 9 Feb. 2018].
Shambaugh, D.L., 2013. China goes global: The partial power(Vol. 111). Oxford: Oxford
University Press.
Weebly.com (2018). Fertility Rate & Population. [online] Chinese Family Planning: The One-
Child Policy. Available at: http://51457205.weebly.com/fertility-rate--population.html [Accessed
9 Feb. 2018].