Human Inference Theory: Examining Heuristics, Biases, and Judgment

This assignment delves into human inference theory, exploring the roles of heuristics and biases in cognitive processes and decision-making. It examines the representativeness and availability heuristics, highlighting their impact on judgment and the potential for cognitive errors. The assignment also discusses the subjective nature of probability and how it influences belief coherence. Furthermore, it critiques the heuristics-and-biases tradition, proposing a more nuanced perspective that acknowledges the efficiency of heuristics while recognizing their limitations. The assignment concludes by emphasizing the practical implications of understanding heuristics for marketers and other persuaders. The provided solution includes a bibliography of relevant sources.

Running head: HUMAN INFERENCE THEORY
Human inference theory and its relation to the representativeness heuristic and the availability
heuristic
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1HUMAN INFERENCE THEORY
Conclusion
In psychology, heuristics are simple and efficient rules that are used by people in order to
develop judgments as well as make decisions. Generally, three heuristics are employed under
specific conditions like representativeness, availability of examples or scenarios and adjustment
from an anchor. The rules work effective under most of the circumstances. However, the
resulting errors generating in the process are considered as cognitive biases and several different
types of documents. It shows that people are affected. It is useful heuristic as representativeness
as well as availability are generally retained and lead to errors in predicting or estimating the
process. The inherently subjective nature of probability leads to make belief coherence as well as
internal consistency. These are the valid criterion that would be helpful to judge probabilities.
The subjective assessment of probability can resemble subjective assessment of the physical
quantities such as distance or size. On the other hand, the judgments are based on the data that
have no-limitation and processed according to heuristics rules.
Solution for future
The heuristics-and-biases tradition is criticized for emphasized on how heuristics make
errors. On the other hand, heuristics is seen in rational in underlying sense. Hence, it is effective
for the purposes without having demand on the brain resources. On the contrary, theoretical
perspectives use to see heuristics as complete rational. It can be developed without complete
information as well as accurate in complex process. Hence, proper comprehension of the role of
heuristics in the field of human psychology would be helpful for marketers as well as other
persuaders influencing decisions.

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Bibliography
Breedlove, J.L., St-Yves, G., Olman, C.A. and Naselaris, T., 2018. Human brain activity during
mental imagery exhibits signatures of inference in a hierarchical generative model. bioRxiv,
p.462226.
Goodman, N.D. and Frank, M.C., 2016. Pragmatic language interpretation as probabilistic
inference. Trends in cognitive sciences, 20(11), pp.818-829.
Morvan, C. and Jenkins, W.J., 2017. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Macat
Library.