Ruia College: Impact of COVID-19 on Public Transport Services

This report examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on public transport services in India, focusing on the airline, road, and rail transport industries. The aviation sector faced significant losses due to travel restrictions, with airlines bearing the brunt. Road transport, particularly public buses, suffered immense financial damage due to lockdown restrictions and reduced passenger numbers. The rail transport industry also experienced a decline in passenger revenue, though it continued to operate freight services. The report concludes that regaining public confidence in mass transit is crucial, suggesting measures such as enhanced sanitization and addressing concerns about viral transmission in enclosed spaces. Ultimately, the analysis emphasizes the need for strategies to support and revitalize India's public transport sector in the wake of the pandemic.

Name: - Rohit Kadam, Shllok Porwal
Roll no: - 2326, 2352
Class: - SYBA
Division: - B
Subject: - Economics I
Topic: Effect of Covid 19 on Public transport
services in India
Semester III

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
We’re the students of SYBA studying in Ramnarain Ruia Autonomous College. Myself Rohit
Kadam and my partner Shllok Porwal would like to express our special thanks of gratitude to
our professor Aditi Abhyankar as well as our principal Anushree Lokur who gave us the
golden opportunity to do this wonderful project on the topic Impact of Covid-19 on
Transportation Services which also helped us in doing a lot of Research and we came to know
about so many new things we are really thankful to them.

AIRLINE TRANSPORT INDUSTRY
Aviation sectors is perhaps worst hit with covid impact. The preventive restrictive movements
have drastically dented the airlines and allied services with huge losses. According to DGCA, six
days suspended operations of March leads to 33% decline in passenger traffic (from 11.5 million
reported in March 2019 to 7.8 million in March 2020). As per CRISIL Infrastructure Advisory
report, the expected revenue loss to the Indian aviation sector due to lockdown amounts to 240
billion; inter se, airlines account for 70% losses, followed by allied services-Ground handling,
etc. CAPA India estimates the industry staggering losses of 240 to 270 billion in April-June
quarter, assuming operations to remain suspended till June 2020. This imply loss of 2.67 to 3
billion for per day of extended lockdown.
The Indian aviation industry is characterized by high fixed costs of nearly 35 to 40%. These
costs include lease rental, employees cost, interest charges. Per day of suspended operations has
hit the industry at the rate of 75–90 crore loss per day. Table 1 exhibits fixed-cost information
pertaining of four key airlines of India for last three years (FY 2017 to 2019). The costs
mentioned signify the charges that are to be met irrespective of the business operations. The
increasing pattern of expenses over years, prima-facie, signify the expanded operations’ size over
years. Ceteris paribus, no significant change in the operations size and cost for the FY 2019–
2020, per day loss of suspended operations for Inter-globe Aviation accounts for 24 crores,
followed 9.2 crores for SpiceJet, 5.83 crores for Go Airlines and 3.1 crores for air Asia (based on
the 2018–2019 estimates).

TABLE 1
ROAD BASED TRANSPORT INDUSTRY
The Indian government has imposed a lockdown since 25 March 2020 to contain the spread of
the coronavirus outbreak – with public transport services limited to essential services only. The
ban on operations during lockdown has caused significant financial losses to operators and it is
predicted that when services resume, demand may not return to pre-lockdown levels.
The ongoing pandemic has wreaked immense and lasting damage to India’s economy, and
passenger transport has been particularly affected. Its far-reaching impact on the aviation and
railway industry is well-documented, along with the struggles of auto and taxi drivers. However,
a critical mode that has so far been relatively under-discussed is public buses.
In India, bus transport tends to receive significantly less media attention, despite the fact that the
bus network is the most expansive of all public transport networks, and close to 75% of public
transport trips in the country are by bus. Buses are the only viable transport mode for several
economically weaker sections to access jobs and education. Additionally, they reduce traffic
congestion, emissions, and provide safe mobility. However, providing a reliable and affordable
bus service is an expensive task for government-owned State Transport Undertakings (STUs).
Responsible for operating public bus services, STUs provide services on low-demand routes and
at odd hours of the day to ensure mobility for all, while also keeping fares affordable. This
means that STUs, whose main source of income is fare collection (84-85%), do not earn

significant revenues and have little capital to cover operational costs. Even during good times,
their cost recovery varies between 47% in urban areas, to 81% in rural areas. In 2016-17, STUs
incurred combined losses of up to INR 16,000 crore.
COVID-19 has completely torpedoed the fragile finances of the sector. Due to lockdown
restrictions, nearly 98% of bus services were halted, leading to almost no revenue generation for
two months. Even before the lockdown, COVID-19 fears resulted in higher ticket cancellations
and lower bookings for long-distance services. Unfortunately, while revenues have reduced,
operating costs have not declined proportionately. Except for fuel (30% of overall expenses),
STUs continued to incur all major expenses associated with bus operations: staff salaries, taxes,
loans, and maintenance costs. The financial impact of the pandemic has begun to show. STUs in
Karnataka have already appealed for financial support from the government and many will
follow. In WRI India’s Bus Karo Webinar dated May 14, the World Bank estimated that the
financial losses due to COVID-19 could amount up to INR 1.5 lakh crore for the public bus
sector.
Owing to losses incurred in the last few months, it is unlikely that recovery from the novel
coronavirus will be easy for STUs. Additionally, bus operations, which depend on a high volume
of passengers per bus to ensure an adequate stream of revenue, will need to accommodate social
distancing norms and a lower number of passengers on every ride. This will lead to reduced
revenue, along with higher costs associated with frequently sanitizing buses and providing bus
crew with protective equipment. These costs will further increase as STUs may need to run more
buses to meet demand with lower capacities per bus. The need for additional buses comes at a
time when there already exists a deficit of almost 2 lakh buses, with STUs seeking government
support to procure and operate more services. The existing financial situation of STUs, combined
with tougher operating conditions in the future, suggests that bus services are likely to deteriorate
in most cases.
RAIL TRANSPORT INDUSTRY
The demand for rail-based travel is expected to come down drastically, as people would cut
down their travel plans and restrict themselves in respective cities. In future, railways would
continue to be the preferred mode of transport by the masses for their long-distance travel.
Thousands of people are currently stuck away from their homes and are mostly relying on
railways to start services. Even during the lockdown special trains such as Shramik Express were
operated to ease the concerns of people, most migrant workers. It becomes imperative for the

railways to device strategies to regulate passenger (i) booking, (ii) entry and boarding, (iii) on-
board facilities, and (iv) de-boarding and exit/transit to other modes.
Already, a number of measures have been proactively taken by the Indian Railways and would
continue to take in the times to come. The measures would range from withdrawal of blankets
from air-conditioned coaches to changing the seat alignment in rail coaches.
In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, all passenger trains were suspended till April 14, 2020.
However, goods services have been continuing with trains carrying essential commodities to
various parts of the country. Railways has also made railway parcel vans available for quick
mass transportation for e-commerce entities and other customers including state governments to
transport certain goods. These include medical supplies, medical equipment, food, etc. in small
parcel sizes. Besides these, Railways has taken several other actions to provide help during the
pandemic.
Since the travel ban extends from March 23 till April 14, 2020 (and may extend further), it will
impact Railways’ finances for both 2019-20 and 2020-21. In this post, we discuss the situation
of Railways’ finances, and what could be the potential impact of the travel ban on Railways’
revenues.
Impact of the travel ban on Railways’ internal revenue
Railways generates internal revenue primarily from passenger and freight traffic. In 2018-19
(latest actuals), freight and passenger traffic contributed to about 67% and 27% of the internal
revenue respectively. The remaining is earned from other miscellaneous sources such as parcel
service, coaching receipts, and sale of platform tickets. In 2020-21, Railways expects to earn
65% of its internal revenue from freight and 27% from passenger traffic.
Passenger traffic: In 2020-21, Railways expects to earn Rs 61,000 crore from passenger traffic,
an increase of 9% over the revised estimates of 2019-20 (Rs 56,000 crore).

As per numbers provided by the Ministry of Railways, up to February 2020, passenger revenue
was approximately Rs 48,801 crore. This is Rs 7,199 crore less than the 2019-20 revised
estimates for passenger revenue, implying that this much amount will have to be generated in
March 2020 to meet the revised estimate targets (13% of the year’s target). However, the
average passenger revenue in 2019-20 (for the 11 months) has been around Rs 4,432 crore. Note
that in March 2019 passenger revenue was Rs 4,440 crore. With passenger travel completely
banned since March 23, Railways will fall short of its target for passenger revenue in 2019-20.
As of now, it is unclear when travel across the country will resume to business as usual. Some
states have started extending the lockdown within their state. In such a situation, the decline in
passenger revenue could last longer than these three weeks of lockdown.

CONCLUSION
Fearing crowd infections, commuters prefer travelling in private modes like two-wheelers. Cities
like Delhi, that resumed services nearly four weeks ago, observed less ridership than the allowed
20 passengers per bus, despite the limited frequencies on many routes. Although bus crowding is
seen in some cities such as Mumbai, it is temporary and due to a lack of alternatives. A
significant drop in public transport ridership can be expected for months after resumption, based
on opinion surveys. That means measures are needed to gain the public’s confidence in mass
transport modes, to avoid a significant modal shift to road traffic.
The Delhi Metro Rail Corporation has released guidelines to tackle several social distancing and
sanitisation concerns, and to address the possibility of viral transmission through tokens, push
buttons on lifts, and handrails at the station elevators. Other metro rail systems are also expected
to follow similar guidelines. Are these measures enough to prevent serious viral transmission?

Unfortunately, public transit agencies around the world face the problem of a dearth of research
by scientists on the specific modality of COVID-19 transmission during public transport
commute. Confidentiality laws usually prevent the availability of contact-tracing data to extract
the precise details of how any individual got infected. There have been some notable research
efforts, currently under peer review, that did use detailed contact-tracing data from China and
Korea. One study says that SARS-CoV-2 does not seem to get transmitted much outdoors. In
fact, only a single cluster of two cases out of nearly a thousand was traced to an outdoor
infection in China. Correlation to the effect of air conditioning airflow has also been established
based on precise seating locations of those infected at a restaurant and at a call centre. Indian
authorities who were already working under similar assumptions on the effects of AC will be
proven justified by the conclusion of such research that there is clearly high risk in indoor areas
under AC with focused air flow.
From the above research we can conclude that a non-AC bus with open windows offers a much
less risky outdoor-like environment. However, it would be wrong to conclude that an AC metro
rail coach is risky – for a different reason, in that contact-time is also very important in viral
transmission in indoor spaces. A majority of metro rail trips in Indian cities are no more than 20
minutes long, and there is research indicating that this may not be long enough for significant
viral densities and inhalation of sufficient viral particles, even without social distancing. It is
unlikely for any significant level of public transport infections to happen via inhalation or even
crowding and clothed-body contact, though we cannot say it with certainty.
However, hand contact with common surfaces must be considered, as it is well-known to cause
significant COVID-19 spread. The guidelines being developed in India address some of the
related issues. However, they leave out certain key elements that should be taken very seriously
– the handgrip rings and handrails from the ceilings, the stanchion poles, and any grabrails on the
seatbacks. If an infected asymptomatic person deposits viral particles on such surfaces, and
another person grabs the same spot even briefly, the viral particles could be picked up by their
hand. The second person could later deposit the particles on his/her face.
Probabilities may help, and another person may not hold on to the exact 3-inch long area before
the virus dissipates, in all cases but one – that of the handgrip rings. Their surface is potentially
the most dangerous inside a coach. Every successive individual who hangs on to the handgrip
where one infected person deposited the virus can pick up the virus at a high density from the
same spot. Then the probability is quite high that, within an hour, two or three others could pick
up the virus left by one person on a handgrip. There is also a high probability that those people
will touch their faces soon after.

SUGGESTIONS
Considering such possibilities, we offer a few safety suggestions that can be implemented
immediately. The first is to employ staff to wipe the handgrips at frequent intervals, constantly
moving from end to end in the train. Any handgrips in buses also need to be cleaned often.
Another is to give wet sanitising wipes to every traveler entering a metro rail coach with a
suggestion to have it in their palms before touching or gripping anything. Wipe disposal bins will
be needed in the coaches.
The metro rail agencies’ focus may need to shift to the egressing passengers, as it is important to
prevent them from transferring what is on their hands to their faces after egress. We should
expect a lot of passengers to leave in a hurry and to not bother with cleaning their hands, even if
hand sanitiser dispensers are available. Paid staff or volunteers dispensing hand sanitisers on
platforms can be an option. Offering contact-less wash basins with soap dispensers at the
platform level could be effective. Signs on hand hygiene vis-à-vis touching surfaces are needed.
There are possible options in metro trains to create external airflow to dissipate viral particles.
Metro rail authorities are planning to leave the doors open at the terminal before the next run of
each train. Since a majority of metro rail stretches in India are elevated, there are other creative
options, if safety considerations will allow them. One would be to have staff onboard to direct
passengers away from a certain coach to other coaches. The doors of the empty coach can be
opened during a run for two or three minutes. We are not aware of such operations anywhere, so
any attempt must only be after careful experimentation. Eventually, metro rail AC systems could
be changed to High Efficiency Particulate Air filters with frequent circulation of fresh air.
Actions are needed from both authorities and the public to keep our public transport systems
safe. If no such actions are taken and a serious level of viral transmission is later traced to public
transit, the result will be a mode shift to private vehicles. As pollution and accidents kill more
people in India than COVID-19 does now, a mode shift away from public transport will have
long-term consequences. Our buses and trains must be perceived as safe, so it is vital to assure
ourselves that public transport is for the public – not the virus.

BIBLIOGRAPHY
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