Research Methods: Crypto Currency Analysis and Forecast Report

This report provides an analysis of various crypto currencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash, using exploratory data analysis techniques. It calculates and forecasts the share value of these currencies until December 2018. The analysis utilizes data from the period of Jul...Read More

RESEARCH METHODS

Table of Contents
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................1
MAIN BODY...................................................................................................................................1
A. Calculating data and information based on Exploratory data analysis..................................1
B. Secondary forecasts and views from various experts around the world regarding crypto-
currency.......................................................................................................................................9
CONCLUSION..............................................................................................................................11
REFERENCES..............................................................................................................................12

INTRODUCTION
An Increasing trend of implicating the use of various cryptocurrency in the operational
practices will be effective and profitable for investors in terms of raising the capital structure of
firm in due period. This technique is beneficial in terms of dealing in the operational practices as
well as analysing the rise in the market value of firm's shares. However, in the present report
there has been analysis based on 5 corporate units which enables crypto-currency techniques in
practices. There will be forecasts of the share value till Christmas 2018. It comprised with
analysing share value of Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum, Litecoin and Bitcoin cash.
MAIN BODY
A. Calculating data and information based on Exploratory data analysis
Determining the forecast of various crypto currency which will be useful as per making
effective analysis over variations in the prices of the currency. Therefore, there will be use of
various methods and techniques which in turn will be useful as per analysing the forecast as well
as trend rise in prices of such digital assets. However, in terms with analysing forecast and
growth in values of such assets there will be use of Exploratory data analysis.
Exploratory data analysis: This is a fruitful technique which in turn helps in analysis
the statistical data set. Therefore, there will be use of various operational activities which will
represent the accurate outcomes. Use of various statistical models which helps in summarizing
data sets as well as make various testing over them. Motive behind analysing outcomes through
this method is that it is most compatible and accurate in terms of identifying issues as well as
reasoning behind details (Gromovs and Lammi, 2017). Moreover, here the researchers will use
this techniques in terms of identifying the forecasted of crypto currency till Christmas 2018. The
analysis will be based on the share prices of various crypto currency firms such as Bitcoin,
Ripple, Ethereum, Litecoin and Bitcoin cash. To analyse the forecast of firm's value there have
been several techniques and methods of analysing data set and interpreting them (Forecast and
Trend, 2018). Exploratory data analysis technique is comprised with different methods on which
trend analysis is the most successful as well as appropriate technique which will be used by
researchers in terms of identifying changes in data set.
Bitcoin:
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It is a Cryptocurrency and a medium of making payments. It has been denoted as the firm
digital currency which runs the system through central banking and a single administrator. The
increasing trend of using this tool in operational practices by various individuals and corporate
units in terms of making prompt payments as well as increasing operational viabilities of firm.
Moreover, in the below listed trend analysis there have been use of prices from last year such as
31st July 2017 to 30th May 2018. Moreover, the forecast will be based on the coming period and
months till December 2018. There have been use of market value of this firm during this period
which have been analysed and ascertained by researchers such as:
Bitcoin
Date Period Price
2017-07-31 1 4735.109863
2017-08-31 2 4360.620117
2017-09-30 3 6451.240234
2017-11-01 4 9946.759766
2017-12-01 5 13850.400391
2018-01-01 6 10226.860352
2018-02-01 7 10334.44043
2018-03-01 8 6943.77002
2018-03-31 9 9248.450195
2018-04-30 10 7502.149902
2018-05-31 11 6773.720215 Equation Forecast Trend
06/30/18 12 9395.53 9395.5307 9395.5307
07/31/18 13 9592.156 8759.6451 9592.1567
08/31/18 14 9788.782 6868.9273 9788.7827
09/30/18 15 9985.408 3971.3162 9985.4087
10/31/18 16 10182.034 1335.5554 10182.0348
11/30/18 17 10378.66 2807.9818 10378.66081
12/31/18 18 10575.286 2253.7516 10575.28682
2

2017-07-31
2017-08-31
2017-09-30
2017-11-01
2017-12-01
2018-01-01
2018-02-01
2018-03-01
2018-03-31
2018-04-30
2018-05-31
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
f(x) = 196.63x + 7036.02
R² = 0.05
Price
Linear (Price)
Interpretation: Evaluating various operational activities of bitcoin crypto-currency it can
be said that there will be use of several techniques and methods which will be useful in terms of
managing the operations of business unit. Forecasting of all bitcoin valuation in coming time.
Researchers have considered the prices from 31st July 2017 which will be forecasted till 31st
December 2018. There will be estimation of the value on the basis of various measurements such
as Equation, Forecast and Trend analysis. It insists the x value of the equitation as pricing
techniques which will be effective and useful as per analysing the outcomes. Similarly, as per
analysed outcomes the forecast of the prices has reducing in the coming period while equation
and trend analysing as reflect the upward directional growth in value of firm. Thus, it can be said
that there will be a satisfactory rise in valuation of entity.
Ethereum:
It is an open source, public block chain based distributed computing platform and
operating system which supports the transactional activities in market (Pereira and et. al., 2017).
Therefore, it includes Ether which as a crypto currency that will be used on the basis of
implicating the use of such techniques on Ethereum platform. Therefore, it also assists the block
chain managements through such techniques.
Ethereum
3

Date Period Price
2017-07-31 1 388.329987
2017-08-31 2 302.769989
2017-09-30 3 303.640015
2017-11-01 4 434.850006
2017-12-01 5 741.130005
2018-01-01 6 1111.310059
2018-02-01 7 851.5
2018-03-01 8 394.070007
2018-03-31 9 670.039978
2018-04-30 10 577.22998
2018-05-31 11 531.150024 Equation Forecast Trend
06/30/18 12 733.625 733.6354 733.6354
07/31/18 13 760.351 743.2587 760.3622
08/31/18 14 787.077 679.61865 787.0890
09/30/18 15 813.803 491.8885 813.8159165
10/31/18 16 840.529 159.61568 840.5427
11/30/18 17 867.255 -148.0673 867.2695
12/31/18 18 893.981 193.0120 893.9963
4

2017-07-31
2017-08-31
2017-09-30
2017-11-01
2017-12-01
2018-01-01
2018-02-01
2018-03-01
2018-03-31
2018-04-30
2018-05-31
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
f(x) = 26.73x + 412.91
R² = 0.12
Price
Linear (Price)
Interpretation: On the basis of above listed analysis it can e said that there have been
sudden growth and rise in the trend line of analysis. Thus, in relation with such outcomes it can
be said that, market value of this firm will have risen till December 2018. Similarly, equation and
trend analysis of the outcomes have reflected rise in market value of in the coming time. On the
other side forecast of same data set insists that there will be several ups- downs which will affect
valuation of firm.
Ripple:
This is a real time gross settlement company which insists a proper network that have
been created with the motive to make effective currency transactions in a period. It creates the
remittance network which will be associated by the Ripple company as ripple transaction
protocol. Moreover, in terms with analysing the operational and financial viabilities of this
organisation there will be use of various techniques and operations such as trend analysis.
Analysing the changes in the market value which will be by using trends analysis technique over
the period such as:
Ripple
Date Period Price
2017-07-31 1 0.2593
5

2017-08-31 2 0.1999
2017-09-30 3 0.1975
2017-11-01 4 0.2356
2017-12-01 5 1.98
2018-01-01 6 1.14
2018-02-01 7 0.8853
2018-03-01 8 0.5003
2018-03-31 9 0.8313
2018-04-30 10 0.6111
2018-05-31 11 0.5988 Equation Forecast Trend
06/30/18 12 0.93109 0.9314 0.9314
07/31/18 13 0.97359 0.9058 0.9739
08/31/18 14 1.01609 0.7515 1.01652
09/30/18 15 1.05859 0.3466 1.05906
10/31/18 16 1.10109 -0.566 1.10159
11/30/18 17 1.14359 -0.0154 1.14412
12/31/18 18 1.18609 0.26938 1.18665
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2017-07-31
2017-08-31
2017-09-30
2017-11-01
2017-12-01
2018-01-01
2018-02-01
2018-03-01
2018-03-31
2018-04-30
2018-05-31
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
f(x) = 0.04x + 0.42
R² = 0.07
Price
Linear (Price)
Interpretation: On the basis of above measured outcomes which insists that there will be
growth in the prices of shares and market value of the proposed firm. Thus, in relation with the
Ripple's market value over the period it can be said that it reflects the upward trend which means
that there will be a satisfactory rise in the coming period. Growth in share value of this
cryptocurrency till December 2018 has satisfactory growth.
Bitcoin Cash:
Date Period Price
2017-07-31 1 592.590027
2017-08-31 2 435.950012
2017-09-30 3 435.480011
2017-11-01 4 1318.420044
2017-12-01 5 2371.830078
2018-01-01 6 1487.180054
2018-02-01 7 1200.329956
2018-03-01 8 685.469971
2018-03-31 9 1348.27002
2018-04-30 10 996.47998
2018-05-31 11 954.26001 Equation Forecast Trend
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06/30/18 12 1312.4653 1312.4658 1312.4658
07/31/18 13 1352.0238 1257.1137 1352.0243
08/31/18 14 1391.5823 996.8014 1391.5828
09/30/18 15 1431.1408 370.5067 1431.1414
10/31/18 16 1470.6993 -161.2172 1470.6999
11/30/18 17 1510.2578 477.3275 1510.2585
12/31/18 18 1549.8163 873.9450 1549.8170
2017-07-31
2017-08-31
2017-09-30
2017-11-01
2017-12-01
2018-01-01
2018-02-01
2018-03-01
2018-03-31
2018-04-30
2018-05-31
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
f(x) = 39.56x + 837.76
R² = 0.05
Price
Linear (Price)
Interpretation: By considering which are going to be happen in the coming period which
insists that there will be rise in the market value of the Bitcoin cash. Thus, this determination will
be based on trend analysis which indicated the upwards direction movement of trend line. Thus,
in the coming period there will be satisfactory growth in the value of this crypto currency. The
equation value has been analysed here which insists that there will be rise in the comping period
as the current value of share prices in 954 which will become 1549.816 in December 2018. On
the other side, there has been huge variation sin the value of the forecasted analysis which
reflects the positive as well as negative outcomes at the same time. Similarly, in trend value of
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the data set in the coming period which also reflects the consisted growth in the value of these
assets. Thus, there will be rise in the value of the firm in the coming time period which will
profitable to the investors.
Litecoin
Litecoin
Date Period Price
2017-07-31 1 73.029999
2017-08-31 2 55.41
2017-09-30 3 55.5
2017-11-01 4 85.940002
2017-12-01 5 226.520004
2018-01-01 6 162.929993
2018-02-01 7 202.139999
2018-03-01 8 116.32
2018-03-31 9 148.270004
2018-04-30 10 118.379997
2018-05-31 11 107.220001 Equation Forecast Trend
06/30/18 12 163.1054 163.1065 163.1065
07/31/18 13 169.8101 164.3697 169.8112
08/31/18 14 176.5148 147.7071 176.5159
09/30/18 15 183.2195 99.3989 183.2207
10/31/18 16 189.9242 11.4342 189.9254
11/30/18 17 196.6289 21.62962 196.6301
12/31/18 18 203.3336 -30.5359 203.3349
9

2017-07-31
2017-09-30
2017-12-01
2018-02-01
2018-03-31
2018-05-31
0
50
100
150
200
250
f(x) = 6.7x + 82.65
R² = 0.15
Litecoin Price
Linear (Litecoin Price)
Interpretation: As per analysing the changes in value of firm in coming period which insists that
there will be a fruitful rise in share prices of the business. Thus, in the coming time there will be
variation in the market value of Litecoin till 2018. It has been forecasted by the business in terms
of making effective analysis over market prices such as forecasting estimations reflects huge
variation. On the other side, in accordance with equation and trend analysis there will be rise in
the market value of the firm in the coming period. Thus, till December 2018 the prices will rise
up to 203.33.
B. Secondary forecasts and views from various experts around the world regarding crypto-
currency
According to Conrad, Custovic and Ghysels, (2018), raising trend of using Crypto
Currency among investors as per having appropriate investments in the market. Theretofore,
these are the digital assets which are obtained by the investors to haver rise in the share value as
well as retain the appropriate profits through selling such assets in the market. There are various
sites and units which are currently operating in the market as per making sale of such assets and
bringing the appropriate revenue gains to the stakeholders of various companies. Framework of
these organisations are comprised with dealing in the digital assets which were designed to
operate as per being a medium of exchange that implicate the use of strong cryptography.
Moreover, they ensure that there will be secured and safe transactions of all financial data set.
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Chen and et.al., (2017) stated that, financial control over the operational of dealings will have
positive as well as negative impacts over the analysis which in turn will not be that much safe
and effective as it was determined by professionals of such entities. There will be manipulation
of the details and chances of losing confidential data. Huge risks are associated with the
transactional process of the firm.
According to Lee and Pilkington, (2017), crypto currency techniques implies with
making the effective control over suggesting the suitable changes in currency techniques in
business. These are opposed to centralised the transactional approaches as well as making
effective changes in electronic money and central banking system. Therefore, the approaches is
based on making effective control over distributing ledger technology as well as publicity the
financial transaction database. Belkhir and Elmeligi, (2018) stated that, there will be rise in the
operational efficiency of Crypto currency trend in market. Moreover, it comprises with the
changes in the operational practices as well as revenue of firm in making effective cost control
approaches. Estimation has been made by the experts that the crypto currency may have risen the
prices which will double the prices of such assets. Therefore, in relation with such estimation
there has been increased in the number of investments in a period. Thus, analysing such facts
will be influencing and effective as per having appropriate control over revenue generational as
well as profits retained by the investors in the market.
According to Pereira and et. al., (2017), estimation based on rising the assets value of
such digital currency has encouraged and approaches investors in terms of making investment in
business which will be effective and helpful as per determining the changes in operations. People
have started making huge investments as per satisfy their greed of earning higher revenue as well
as return over their investment money in the business units. They believe that there will be
increase in the prices of such assets which will improve the capital structure as well as financial
health. Gromovs and Lammi, (2017) stated that, the future is uncertain as if there might be rise in
the prices similarly, there will be bear in those prices. The chances of rising the income is
proportionately equally to the downfall for the same. It has been analysed by the experts that the
crypto currency will have reduction in the prices with the proportionate of 26% till the end of
year. Similarly, on the other side it has been estimated that there might be huge growth.
Therefore, it can be said that to make the investment in this incinerated economy which does not
11

have any concrete and evident rise or fall in the prices. Therefore, it will be inappropriate and
unauthentic which in turn affects the rise and fall in the prices of shares.
As per the views of Conrad, Custovic and Ghysels, (2018), investing the activities which
does not have any certain outcomes that will affect the revenue as well as operational practices of
various organisations. Therefore, to make investment in such digital assets will be a risky thing
which will invite the highest risks and changes in the operational gains of the firm. There might
be sudden growth in the recent times as many of the operational gains will have double growth in
the prices whirl the others will be determines has having huge losses in the coming time. Chen
and et.al., (2017), argues that, it will be secure in the coming time as experts have analysed here
that in the coming period these cryptocurrency market will be involved in the capital market.
Therefore, the chances of facing higher losses will be reduced. Moreover, it will also bring legal
authority over such currencies is that there will be rise in the income as well as revenue of
investors. Investing in such assets will be safe and secure as it will be enrolled in capital markets.
They will operate traditional financial markets and add legitimacy on previous assets.
CONCLUSION
On the basis of above study it can be said that there are huge gains as well as risks are
associated with using Crypto currency measurements. The study will be based on analysing
changes in the values of these organisations such as Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum, Litecoin and
Bitcoin cash. Moreover, there have been analysis over the market value of these firms which
have been estimate as per having appropriate growth and profitability in the period.
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