MIS770 Foundation Skills in Data Analysis: Business Confidence Report

This report, prepared for a MIS770 assignment at Deakin University, analyzes regional business confidence and expectations based on a dataset of 150 local businesses in Ballarat. The analysis includes summaries of sample data, comparisons of business activity and profitability across financial years, and assessments of growth strategies. The report addresses questions regarding business confidence levels, the impact of growth strategies on employment and success, the age of local business managers, and the probability of new business openings. Statistical methods are employed to estimate probabilities and confidence intervals, providing insights into the local business environment and its future prospects, as well as the use of statistical output to assist in real-world decision making.

Memorandum
To: Ballarat City Council
From: Nick Black
Subject: Response to further analysis of business confidence and expectations
Dear Ballarat,
According to the questions that you sent to me via the email, have done the analysis
per each question where so many issues have been discussed in details concerning the analysis of
business confidence and expectation. Each and every response that have discussed will really
help your government in improving the local business for your people and therefore this will
improve their living status and also their income.
In the first question we are discussing about the summary of the sample data. This
data consist of 150 local businesses e.g. retail trade, accommodation and many more. Most of
these businesses have been operating for a period of 10 years or more while others have been
operating for 2 years. On employment, these businesses have employed so many people whereas
others being run by one person or self- employed. We also see that in the last twelve months
there is a high increase of those employed. Local businesses also experiences challenges when
taking new employees. Comparing last financial year (2014-2015) to current financial year
(2015-2016) we notice that business activity has really increased. Business expectations activity
of the financial year (2015-2016) is well off than that of (2016-2017) financial year. The
expectation in profitability for (2015-2016) current financial year has increased as compared to
that of (2016-2017) financial year. Most marketing originated from outside local area and within
state, other sales were generated outside Victoria and others from the internet. Most of the
percentages of sales originated via the internet. The believes of the local business environment
by people within the region is very positive. The confidence level in the local area’s business
environment is majorly medium. The mean for the gross revenue for the businesses is $299.
Responding for question 2 we see that the businesses that had a growth strategy lies
within or above the confidence interval. Businesses that had a low confidence interval didn’t
experience a growth strategy (Mindrila and Balentyne, 2013). On question 3, Creswick or
clunes chamber of commerce suggested that 76% proportion was used to confirm if any business
had a growth strategy and we realize that there was no evidence to suggest that the proportion of
our local businesses that do have a growth strategy could be less than 76%. Businesses with a
growth strategy have a higher number of employees and therefore they are more successful.
On question 4, our local businesses managers are rather young as stated by a recent
report because their average age is 48 years which is indeed less than 50 years. Moreover, on
question 5 over the years we have observed that an average of 10 business open each year so the
probability that next year more than 15 businesses will open is 0.8413 and the probability that
the number of business that open will be 5 or less is 0.1587.
As we conclude on question 6, when this survey is conducted again next year to
estimate the average number of people that local business employ to within 4 employees and the
percentage of business with a growth strategy to within 2% (Moore, Notz and Flinger, 2013).
These two criteria aids in using low confidence level hence contributing to low number of
employees which also enable the sample size to reduce.
Thank you,
Nick Black

Reference
Moore, D. S., Notz, W. I, & Flinger, M. A. (2013). The basic practice of statistics(6thed.). New
York, NY: W. H. Freeman and Company.
Mindrila, D. and Balentyne, P. (2013). [online] Westga.edu. Available at:
https://www.westga.edu/academics/research/vrc/assets/docs/confidence_intervals_notes.pdf
[Accessed 6 May 2019].