Personal Learning Portfolio: Decision Making, Uncertainties, Biases

This personal learning portfolio delves into various aspects of decision-making and systems analysis. It begins by examining Simon’s normative model, applying it to personal decisions, and discussing its limitations and potential improvements. The portfolio then addresses data, information, and knowledge inputs in decision-making, using systems analysis to map processes and identify problems related to poor information or knowledge transfer, proposing solutions for enhanced data management and decision support. Furthermore, it reflects on group decision-making, highlighting distortions and suggesting alternative techniques like dialectical inquiry and the Delphi technique to improve managerial practices. The portfolio concludes by exploring methodologies and tools for solving complex problems, including soft systems, dialogue mapping, IBIS, and satisfying, providing a comprehensive overview of decision-making processes and problem-solving strategies. Desklib provides similar solved assignments and resources for students.

Assignment 1 – Personal Learning Portfolio

Contents
Task 1 - Decision Making Typologies...................................................................................................3
1. Simon’s normative model:.............................................................................................................3
2. Think of a decision you made recently in your personal or family life..........................................3
3. Write down exactly how you approached the decision in terms of the model?..............................3
4. Where does the model break down?..............................................................................................4
5. Is the model still useful, can it be adapted or improved to support everyday decision making?....4
References:............................................................................................................................................5
Task 2 - Inputs to decision making – data, information & knowledge; systems analysis.......................6
1. Define the problem clearly:...........................................................................................................6
2. Map the processes and show where the problem occurs?..............................................................7
3. Annotate the map with information inputs/outputs and knowledge inputs/outputs, explaining the
problem in terms of poor information or knowledge, lack of information or knowledge transfer, and
where bad decisions are being made..................................................................................................8
4. Present a solution(s) to the problems:............................................................................................9
References:..........................................................................................................................................10
Task 3 - Decision-making issues – uncertainties, biases, in personal and group decision making.......11
1. Reflect critically upon the lecture information about group decision making..............................11
2. Which distortions disturb you the most and why?.......................................................................11
3. What alternative decision-shaping technologies, techniques or processes will you use to improve
your managerial practice?................................................................................................................12
References:..........................................................................................................................................13
Task 4 - Methodologies and tools for solving complex problems: soft systems, dialogue mapping,
IBIS, satisfying....................................................................................................................................14
References:..........................................................................................................................................17

Task 1 - Decision Making Typologies
1. Simon’s normative model:
Herbert Simon has made his contribution to the world in order to enhance the understanding
related to a decision-making process. It refers to three stages of decision making:
1. Intelligence: this stage is the step in which problems are identified and data are collected
to resolve the problem.
2. Design: in a stage, the organisation can deal with the situation with alternative solutions
and avoid the threats.
3. Choice: at this stage of a decision-making process, people need to choose best options as
solutions from provided alternative solutions using option criterion.
(Source: Thakur, 2018).
4. Implementation: In this approach, a company needs to make proper and effective
strategies and execution to resolve problems while decision-making process.
2. Think of a decision you made recently in your personal or family life.
A decision has been made regarding facing challenges powerfully and doing a job to avoid
financial problems of personal life. The major decision to make myself more confident,
flexible and capable to navigate changes and highlights my positive points to an extent.
3. Write down exactly how you approached the decision in terms of the model?
The first steps towards decision-making process are to recognising the problems and
opportunity then make you confidently related to choosing the right path for yourself. Making
plans and strategies to detect problems and identification of promising circumstances which
might tend to better opportunities in life. Formulation and ignoring problems are another
solution to handle an adverse situation and making right decisions. Differences between

opportunities and threats are measured to determine solution and their alternatives.
Alternatives should be designed to outline the problems after collecting data and identifying
positive and negative components of a solution.
4. Where does the model break down?
The economists Simon basically focuses on human behaviour but he failed to clarify and
generate the concept of global rationality. This theory or approach contains many boundaries
and breaks down especially when exercising global rationality. This theory basically passes
ideas and views that are practically impossible. The economist Simon usually argued about a
central role, practice behaviour, rational decisions but due to lack of realism and flexibility,
the major component rationality is logically not accepted in derivative concept.
5. Is the model still useful, can it be adapted or improved to support everyday decision
making?
Each and every individual needs to make profitable and logistic decisions from age to age.
The approach of Simon Decision making model is still useful for the people in order to
formulate policies, addressing people problems, and guide and direct them in normative form,
revising and evaluating each problem effectively. In changing situations, this Simon decision-
making model could be useful to outline the solution for resolving models. This model needs
a lot of innovation and creativity in designing specific solutions. Probably differences are
measured and evaluated in problem solution, formulation, evaluation and detecting
intelligence phase through competitive and comparative analysis. This model is started by
triggering the opportunity and understanding problem searching and formulation process.

References:
 Thakur, D. (2018). Simon’s Model of Decision making Online: E-computer Notes, Available
at: http://ecomputernotes.com/mis/decision-making/explain-the-simons-model-of-decision-
making [Accessed on: 19 March 2018].
 Sang, T., & Dam. R. (2018). 5 Stages of the Design Thinking Process, Interaction design
foundation
 Barros, G. (2010). Herbert A. Simon and the concept of rationality: boundaries and
procedures, Brazilian Journal of political economy.
 Decision-making confidence (2017). Types of Decision Making. [Online] Decision making
confidence. Available at: http://www.decision-making-confidence.com/types-of-decision-
making.html [Accessed on: 2018-03-19].
 Campitelli, G. & Gobet. F. (2013). Herbert Simon’s Decision-Making Approach:
Investigation of Cognitive Processes in Experts- Review of General Psychology. American
Psychological Association.

Task 2 - Inputs to decision making – data, information & knowledge; systems analysis
1. Define the problem clearly:
Solution:
Problems occur whether it is related to organisation level or a personal level. It is necessary
for the organisation also to manage high-quality data to access them from anywhere. A major
problem is incomplete and out of context data. For example; if an organisation has at least
10,000 knowledgeable workers although company lose around $7.8 million due to lack of
time and data management and reformatting data annually (Kreitle. et. al., 2017).
Such kinds of problems basically occurred due to other following reasons:
1. Lack of communication
2. Huge communication gap
3. Inefficient data management facilities.
4. Inappropriate time management
5. Lack skilled and capable workers.
6. Lack of decision support systems.

Data
management
problems
A problem in
Collection of raw data:
1. Managing storage
equipment.
2. backup retention.
Data process
problem:
1. Data mobility
2. Cost complexity
3. Lack of integrated
tool
Clean Dataset:
1. Storage provisioning
2. Dealing with the
performance problem
A problem in data product
management
1. Communication gap
2. Lack of time and decision
supports systems
Model and algorithm:
1. Managing complexity
2. Regulatory compliance
Extra-ordinary data
analysis
1. Lack
collaboration and
work motive
2. Map the processes and show where the problem occurs?
(Source: Krause, et. al., 2018).

Problems facing due to lack of skilled and knowledgeable workers, the organisation took the wrong decision such as:
Bad practices of time management
Inefficient use of DSS (decision support systems).
Knowledge output related to learn and observe new
Changes in performance activity in the business pr
Reporting results from performing the business pr
Information Inputs:
Tacit information
Explicit information
(Related to process information mapping)
Transformation/ data process
Quality process movement
Quality interpretation
Knowledge Outputs:
Tacit knowledge (output)
Explicit knowledge (output)
(Related to knowledge process mapping)
Feedback:
Reducing market share
Increasing employee turnover
Reducing quality control
3. Annotate the map with information inputs/outputs and knowledge inputs/outputs,
explaining the problem in terms of poor information or knowledge, lack of information
or knowledge transfer, and where bad decisions are being made.
Solution:
Annotation of a map with knowledge and information input in the context of data
management & transformation processing problems
(Source: Esfahanipour and Montazemi, 2018).

DOCUMENT MANAGEMENT
DATA (related to production and document management
INFORMATION (related to production level & Quality management
KNOWLEDGE (related to quality control, use of expert systems)
WISDOM
PROCESS CONTROL
DATA MINING PROCESS
USE OF DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
4. Present a solution(s) to the problems:
A process of knowledge input and output is the concept of determining alternative strategies
for whole problems in the business process. Knowledge mapping helps to define and
recognise the consequences of behaviour in order to attain particular unique possibility of
solutions. In the above information and knowledge input out mapping process, the problem is
related to bad practices of time management and lack of effective decisions support systems.
A problem can be resolved by using tacit and explicit knowledge. Proper management of
data, the collection of information, input of information and getting knowledge through
document management creates wisdom (Ji, et. al., 2017).
Presentation:
(Source: Dingle, et. al., 2018).

References:
 Krause, M.R., Hewlett-Packard Enterprise Development L. P. (2018). Input/output
processing. U.S. Patent 9,864,717.
 Dingle, K., Camargo, C.Q. and Louis, A. A. (2018). Input-output maps are strongly biased
towards simple outputs. Nature Communications, 9(1), p.761.
 Esfahanipour, A. and Montazemi, A. R. (2018). Cognitive Mapping in Support of Intelligent
Information Systems. In Encyclopedia of Information Science and Technology, Fourth
Edition (pp. 4570-4582). IGI Global.
 Kreitler, J. and Diab, A., Excalibur IP LLC. (2017). Mapping method and system. U.S. Patent
9,607,092.
 Ji, H.J., Cho, J.Y. and Han, J.K., Samsung Electronics Co Ltd, 2017. Resource mapping
method and apparatus of OFDM system. U.S. Patent 9,749,074.

Task 3 - Decision-making issues – uncertainties, biases, in personal and group decision
making
1. Reflect critically upon the lecture information about group decision making.
Solution:
Decision-making process is the concept of understanding the situation with intelligence,
design strategies by monitoring each task and implementation of plans and strategies to
beneficial outcomes. Group decision making is the process in which best demographic
orientation and collective activities would be analysed effectively in order to evaluate
democratic courses of actions (Del Moral, et. al., 2017). In group decision making, multiple
users are there to make effective decisions in the basis available alternative sources of
attributes. It gives best partial and collective knowledge observing availability of bad ideas to
make effective reviews and develop best decisions from evaluating alternatives (Davis,
2014).
Critically refection:
 Group decision making is basically based on informal nature and formally designated.
 It is charged with the specific goal of such as quality management, time management, data
documentation control to arrive at the corrective conclusion through structured decisions
 Brainstorming: in brainstorming decision-making process, it involves multiple people in a
group in order to take their views and suggestion verbally with alternative courses of
activities.
 Nominal group: in this decision-making process, all individual in a group needs to propose a
comprehensive list of their feedbacks, ideas and alternatives to the various proposal related
effective ideas in writing. All people in a group have to make their records of ideas privately
in writing.
2. Which distortions disturb you the most and why?
Distortion of group decision making is many in which major disadvantage is slower decision
making procedure and its impact. Group are usually making delays due to lack of
communication gap, miscommunication, and lack of efficient knowledge. It makes
difficulties to analyse the situation where it would be necessary to make the decision quickly.

Sometimes lack of unity and individual bias create problems deterioration of mental
efficiency. All people have their own ideas and views which reduce their potential for group
thinking ability (Morente-Molinera, et’ al., 2017).
3. What alternative decision-shaping technologies, techniques or processes will you use
to improve your managerial practice?
Alternative decision-making process and decision shaping technique to improve managerial
practices are:
1. DIALETICAL INQUIRY:
DIALETICAL INQUIRY is the concept in which group has to focus on ensuring and
considering basic alternatives to resolve problems. In this process, the group are divided into
two different sides and opposite direction in order to evaluate merits and demerits of
proposed alternatives solutions while making decisions. For making the decision at
managerial level, it is essential to focus on both side advantages and disadvantages through
this inquiry. This theory is based on logical interpretation to highlight and reduce potential
problems (Pérez, et. al., 2014).
2. DELPHI TECHNIQUE.
DELPHI TECHNIQUE is the concept in which decision-making group can make alternative
views and exchanges ideas from different physical locations. The individuals in the different
physical location usually share their views for making special knowledge potential, expertise
the issues and matters in time. At a management level, through Delphi technique managers
can make the decision and share their ideas through e-mails, fax or online sources in the
discussion room and in the board meeting. After discussion in this process, group members
ask for giving rates to each idea. Through rank, the position of reviews and ideas are decided
to make the effective decision in a group (Morente-Molinera, et. al., 2017).