Crisis Management and Decision-Making Models: River Millers Analysis

This presentation examines the crisis faced by River Millers Limited, focusing on the product recall due to poor packaging and market interference. It applies the rational decision-making model, highlighting biases such as confirmation, anchoring, and overconfidence. The analysis explores the impacts of these biases on decision-making. The presentation recommends that the organization should adopt the latest technology in packing and sealing their products, sue market cartels selling manipulated products and adhere to the set regulations guiding food processing industries to ensure quality, quantity, and safety of their products. The presentation is a case study that fulfills the requirements of MBA503: Operations Management and Decision-Making Models, assessing the company's approach to crisis management and offering actionable insights for future improvements.

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Operational management and decision making models
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River millers limited
• River millers have been through the production crisis for the past two years of their operation, which has led
to the product being recalled from the market, thus following inadequate customers' response and
complaints about the value and quality of the maize flour they offer to the consumers.
• The crisis was due to poor packaging method used by the river millers limited which rendered the product
unsafe for human consumption since the seal used can be easily tampered with hence the safety of the maize
flour was questionable thus following increasing number of market cartels who have occasionally been
interfering with the quality and quantity of the maize flour already packed to the market.
• The management body of the organization, therefore, decided to recall their maize flour products from the
local markets to change their packaging methods to ensure the safety of their products while in the market.

Decision-making model
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Rational decision-making model
• Based on the product recall crisis experienced by
the river millers limited, the rational decision-
making model process was applied by the
management body of the organization while
dealing with the crisis due to its multi-steps, which
involves various evaluation steps hence giving
more rational decision to curb the rising crisis.
(Abdel-Basset, Mohamed, Hussien and Sangaiah,
2018, pg 6642).

Decision-making biases
• Confirmation bias – where the manager seeks to confirm the evidence related to certain
beliefs while diminishing or not accounting for the impact of evidence in support of the
differing conclusions. (Li, Kou and Peng, 2016, pg 990).
• Anchoring bias- the act of overreliance brings this bias on a certain piece of information or
experience in making subsequent judgments. (Liu, et al., 2019, pg 750).
• Overconfidence bias- this occurs when the decision-maker overestimates the reliability of
their judgments without considering other members' views. (Wang and Yu, 2017, pg 180).
Impacts of biases in decision making
• Biases distort and disrupt the objective contemplation of the crisis

Recommendations
1. The organization should use the latest technology in packing and sealing
their products.
2. The organization should sue the market cartels selling manipulated
products.
3. The organization should adhere to the set regulations guiding food
processing industries to ensure quality, quantity, and safety of their products.

References
• Abdel-Basset, M., Mohamed, M., Hussien, A.N. and Sangaiah, A.K., 2018. A novel group decision-making model
based on triangular neutrosophic numbers. Soft Computing, 22(20), pp.6629-6643.
• He, Z. and Jiang, W., 2018. An evidential Markov decision making model. Information Sciences, 467, pp.357-372.
• Li, G., Kou, G. and Peng, Y., 2016. A group decision making model for integrating heterogeneous information. IEEE
Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics: Systems, 48(6), pp.982-992.
• Liu, B., Zhou, Q., Ding, R.X., Palomares, I. and Herrera, F., 2019. Large-scale group decision making model based on
social network analysis: Trust relationship-based conflict detection and elimination. European Journal of Operational
Research, 275(2), pp.737-754.
• Wang, Y. and Yu, C., 2017. Social interaction-based consumer decision-making model in social commerce: The role of
word of mouth and observational learning. International Journal of Information Management, 37(3), pp.179-189.
• Yu, S.M., Wang, J., Wang, J.Q. and Li, L., 2018. A multi-criteria decision-making model for hotel selection with
linguistic distribution assessments. Applied Soft Computing, 67, pp.741-755.