The Impact of Demographic Changes on Global Security: An Analysis

This essay delves into the multifaceted challenges that demographic changes pose to international security. It begins by outlining the global population growth and its effects on various aspects of security, including urbanization, conflict, and the rise of youthful populations. The essay examines how urbanization contributes to new forms of crime and insecurity, while also considering the impact of population pressures on natural resources and the resulting conflicts. Furthermore, it discusses the role of technological advancements in migration and the resulting refugee crises, particularly in the context of Europe's response to the Middle East conflicts. The essay further explores how Europe can address the refugee crisis by focusing on ending wars, addressing intra-EU conflicts, and ensuring equal responsibility among EU countries. It highlights the importance of international cooperation and sustainable solutions to manage the complex interplay between demographic changes and international security.

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Security in an Age of Risk
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Security in an Age of Risk
Why are demographic changes a challenge to international security?
Introduction
The world population seems to be highly increasing and leading to changes in
demographic patterns across the globe. The World population growth has been highly increasing
with estimates showing that middle range estimates will increase from 6 billion to 7.3 billion in
2025 (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs 2015, pp. 1).The factors for
the increasing growth in the world have been attributed to fertility trends which have been
increasing in the world (Ceccorulli, Fassi, & Lucarelli, 2017, p. 255). As the world population
increases, new threats to security arise since this growth affects the way people relate with each
other in different situations. The increase in population has led to new sorts of crime and
insecurity and at the same time presents challenges to the local government in developing
relevant infrastructures for managing this increasing population.
Changes in conflict
One element of demographic trends to international security is the changes like conflict
influenced in the world. The nature of conflicts is likely to change in the future due to
urbanization, the spread of immigrant communities and the demographic pressures on natural
resources (Teitelbaum 2015, p. 89). Urbanization is slowly taking over the world with most
people moving to urban areas to search for employment opportunities. This makes the urban
areas highly populated and those who are unemployed get engaged in different types of crime.
CheSoh (2012, p. 294) suggests that as urban areas become centres of economic, political and
social centres, the shanty areas and low-life neighbourhoods become recruiting grounds for
radical groups or revolutionaries for fighting the war. This means that urbanization leads to

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widespread conflict which arises due to the fight for resources. Studies have shown that crimes
are high in inner-city areas located in lower-class cities (Curiel & Bishop 2018, p. 5). This can be
explained from the broken window hypothesis which suggests that deteriorating neighbourhoods
attract crime.
For example, dilapidated houses lead to increased crime and vandalism creating safety
issues. All sorts of crime exist in urban areas but these crimes are high in low-income urban
centres. When compared to rural areas, crime is low because there are no hiding places and lower
population density makes it easy for people to know each other which is a social control to
crime. Malik (2016, p. 71) suggests that urbanization alone is not a cause of increased insecurity
but rather a breeding ground for factors that increase insecurity like crime, robbery, violence,
drugs, and war which vary from locality to locality. This is the reason why crime is not evenly
distributed in all urban centres but rather the factors that influence crime vary in different areas.
For example, the rise of the industrial revolution changed the nature of crime since when people
started living in areas close to industries, urbanization started and thus new crimes also started
being witnessed around the world.
Increased Rise of Youthful Populations
Increased population growth is also associated with the youthful population who are more
crime-prone as compared to the older population. This is reflected in the increased high arrest
rated among the youth aged between 16-25 years (West, Phaure, Macdonald, & Hornby 2019,
pp. 4). The rate of arrest is correlated with other crime-related activities like drugs and violence
which increase as a result of the increased youthful population who may not be engaged in any
meaningful activities. This rising rate of youth crime reflects the wider societal issues that arise

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from increased demographics and the inability of society to evolve with these demographics as a
way of managing them.
Population Pressures on Resources and Conflict
Population pressures that arise from the changing demographics increase pressure on
natural resources like water rights which are a likely source of future conflict. This has been
witnessed in many regions around the world where the fight for resources has led to deaths in the
population as people seek to protect the resources that they have (Plabita 2015, p. 22). This is
common in arid areas where resources like water and grazing grounds have led to the death of
many people especially in developing countries in Africa. The scramble for these minimal
resources which came as a result of increased demographics has led to new types of crimes that
had been forgotten in the 21st century. Another example is the plan for Turkey to control the
flow of river Euphrates to build the grand Anatolia project for hydroelectric power will affect the
flow of water to Syria and Iraq which will fuel new conflict between these countries.
Increased Technological Communication and Refugees
As the world develops technologically, advances in transportation and communication
make it easy for intercontinental migration of people around the world. This can be related to the
increased size of ethnic Diasporas in many parts of Europe. This has led to the rise of travel
agents and diaspora activists groups who make it easy for people to move from one place to
another (Mendes, Silva, Hallal, & Tomasi 2014, p. 4). Today, there are many people migrating to
westernised countries illegally in search of greener pastures. As these people migrate into other
countries, they can causes conflict with the local people as they seek to advance the interests of
their home countries. Migrations around the world have historically led to sources of new
conflict in the phase of international community. The influx of refugees can weaken the host

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nation’s security due to the infrastructure burden attached to managing the increased refugee
population. For example, in Macedonia, there is fear of the influx of Albanians from Kosovo
since this affects the government plans and creates new priorities for managing these people.
Changes in the Nature of Conflict
Demographic factors can also lead to changes in the sources of conflict that countries and
regions experience. Factors like massive population growths or migrations can create advantages
to some regions against others. The source of conflict shifts with these changing demographic
trends as seen in the Middle East where an increase in the youthful population led to
revolutionary movements against the state. This is also related to the development of the Islamic
Salvation Front in Algeria which developed as a result of an increasingly youthful population.
Increases in demographic growth also lead to the shift in power balances between different
groups in a country or region (Dowd, 2015, p. 15). When population growth takes place, it does
not take place evenly and thus some groups can decline as others grow (Butu, Hashim, &
Ahmad, 2017, p. 85). This shifts the balance of power from one group to another which creates
tension and even conflict between the groups. For example, the Lebanese civil war of 1975-1990
was fuelled by the increasing Shiite Muslim population which threatened the Maronite Christian
control of politics in the country. The same was seen in Northern Ireland when the population
growth in the early 1970s swung in favour of the Catholic minorities. These shifts in power
balance affect the political processes and policies which lead to civil war between groups. In
most cases, the aggrieved states will look for ways of fighting to retain their interests which can,
in turn, lead to war.
Hama (2013, p. 98) suggests that this means that the changing demographics being
witnessed around the world are defined by the population changes that are being experienced

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around the world. International bodies are struggling to find long lasting solutions on issues like
insecurity, crime, refugees and even immigration which have all come as a result of changing
demographics around the world. Europe is one of the recipient regions that is suffering from the
effects of these demographics which are reflected in the Middle East wars that have led to the
increased influx of refugees into Europe. This means that the global challenges being witnessed
today will not stop since these demographics seem to be changing every time now and then.
How should Europe deal with the refugee crisis from the Middle East?
The persisting wars in the Middle East have increased refugee problems in Europe. For
the last two years, the Middle East region has experienced prolonged wars that have adequately
affected people forcing them to migrate to Europe. At the height of the Syrian war, Europe
developed a burden of sharing between 28 EU states in 2015 (Kugiel 2016, P. 49). The refugee
crisis in Europe has split Europe into two with some countries like the Czech Republic, Poland
and Hungary refusing to accept refugees. The battle for refugees has led to the need for
respecting national sovereignty with some countries arguing that the EU relocation scheme is a
way of encouraging more immigrants.
Putting Measures in Place to End the War
One way to deal with the refugee crisis in the Middle East to put measures in place to
stop the war. For some time now, war has been the major cause of immigration in the refugees,
with some of the wars witnessed in the past being influenced by the western world in their quest
to change the Arab world. This is seen in Libya, Iraq, and Afghanistan where the source of war
was based on western interests. This means that the war can only end if western countries
advocate for the local interests of the people (Heisbourg 2015, P. 9). The wars in countries like
Syria are a fight for sovereignty and the need for people to govern themselves due to the invasion

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of Turkey in Northern Syria which has since led to an international crisis. The failure by the EU
to stop the Syrian war shows a failure in the EU to deal with political issues in its member
countries. without stopping the war in the middle East, refugees will still flock European
countries as they run away from the wards in their country, this means that the only lasting
solution to stop the war and empower neighbouring middle East countries to give them the
power to intervene early in the war.
Addressing the EU-Intra Fighting on Refugee Issues
Another way that Europe can address the refugee crisis is to put measures in place to
address the intra-EU fighting which has weakened the block. For example, Turkey uses refugees
for political ends and thus any deal that it strikes with the EU is not for the good of the EU but
rather for its own political gains. As EU countries are struggling to host refugees from Syria,
Turkey is still invading Syria and had issued a threat asking the EU not to intervene or else the
government will release the refugees in Turkey camps to Europe (Ergun, Dessì, Lindgaard,
Ala’Aldeen, & Palani 2018, p. 5). Turkey is also defined as a “civilization state” which defines
its interests differently from the west since the country feels it was betrayed by the EU and US in
the attempted coup of July 2016 (Rygiel, Baban, & Ilcan 2016, p. 319). Thus integration of the
EU is one of the solutions that can be used to end the refugee crisis so that each of the EU
countries can take responsibility. The fact that countries like the Czech Republic, Poland and
Hungary have taken different refugee situations means that the EU countries are no longer loyal
to the regional block and thus without integrating all the EU countries, the refugee crisis will not
be solved.
Equal Responsibility by EU Countries

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Further, EU countries need to take equal responsibility in dealing with refugee issues.
This is through equal distribution of refugees across the European countries and not keeping
them in bad conditions on Greek camps. Trauner (2016, p. 314) argues that the EU has to
develop a relief program that involves all the countries to ensure that they are protecting the
refuges and they do not leave the burden to only one country. EU countries need to assess their
policies and stands on the different refugee and Middle East issues that affect the people. They
also need to put new measures in place for restoring the war through ensuring that they address
the real causes of the war which is the Islamic state and the kindred groups with deep-rooted
grievances with the Sunni Muslim populations. As the western countries support for some
regimes as seen in the rapprochement of Shiite-Persian Iran, the Western world and the EU are
leading to the development of hegemonies within Middle East countries which is seen as a threat
between the Sunnis and Shiites. Thus as the war continues radicalization seems to increase since
the approach of the western world is one-sided and not focussed on bringing the aggrieved
groups together.
Therefore, the refugee crisis in Europe can only be addressed through ending the wars in
the region which are still attributed to the one-sided interests of Europe and the Western world in
their quest to control the Middle East. After wars and wars, the region is still in war with many
groups coming up as a result of the crisis that the war has plunged them into. Thus, for now,
Europe needs an integrative policy to speak with one voice on the refugee issues and at the same
time needs to change its approach to the Middle East wars to give a permanent solution that can
allow refugees to go back to their countries.

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