Project Management EMQM5103: East Coast Rail Link Risk Analysis

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) project, a significant infrastructure initiative aimed at connecting the east and west coasts of Malaysia. The report includes a literature review of major railway projects and associated risks, drawing examples from global projects like the Standard Gauge Railway, High Speed 2, Crossrail, Melbourne Metro Tunnel, and Kuala Lumpur-Singapore High Speed Rail. It identifies the top ten risks associated with the ECRL project and discusses risk response management, control, and development strategies. The analysis covers various challenges, including environmental impact, technical specifications, cost overruns, and geotechnical issues, emphasizing the importance of proper risk management processes and mitigation measures in ensuring the success of railway projects. The report highlights the need for prioritizing risk treatment actions and continuous monitoring to maximize the benefits associated with railway projects.

Running head: PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Project- East Coast Rail Link
Name of the Student
Name of the University
Author’s Note

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1. Introduction
The paper mainly focuses on the project “East Coast Link” which is mainly under the
construction of new standard gauge railway link infrastructure that is mainly connected to the
port of Klang to Penkalan Kubor in the northeast by connecting the east coast Pahang which
is the Economic states of Pahang, Terengganu and Kelantan to one another and to Peninsular
Malaysia's west coast and Central Region (Pagano et al., 2016). It is identified that the project
of railway link infrastructure will carry both passengers as well as freight from the East Coast
of Malaysia to the East coast and vice versa.
In this paper, literature review is mainly undertaken for the major railway projects
and for the risks that are mainly associated with the risks. The paper also identifies top ten
risks that are mainly associated with the project of ECRL including proper illustration about
the risk response management, control as well as development.
2. Literature Review
According to Jaroszweski et al., (2015) railways are generally regarded as one of the
economic, efficient as well as environment friendly mode of transportation. However, it is
identified that recently there has been loss of substantial share that is mainly related with the
railway market in comparison to other modes of transportation. The current railway practices
require major changes in the current practices of the railways including the introduction of
much more regulations for companies that are mainly operating in the railway as well as
much more transparency and openness in all the various state railways (Fournier et al., 2017).
In addition to this, proper safety policy is also needed for the railways in the future.
Harmonization is generally regarded as one of the regulatory framework that is generally
seen as one of the key part for developing commonality. Recently, the focus is on the
development of several types of railway initiatives that are generally aimed for encouraging

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as well as for harmonizing the railways for providing the facility of proper horizontal
integration, vertical separation as well as proper transparent certification for improving the
safety approval as well as equipment acceptance (Walcott & Fan, 2017). Additionally, the
technological changes are also needed within the projects that are related with railway. Thus,
there is appropriate potential for instability as well as confusion in the industry of railway that
generally resulted in the overall increment in the accidental risks. This type of changes not
only affect the technological and organizational innovations but also affect the new project
stakeholders as well as the financial arrangements that are generally derived from the major
project changes.
It is stated by Polat and Eray (2015) that railway safety is much more questionable
than road level crossing as the number of fatal accidents in the last few years is quite high.
One of the major concern is to execute the railways projects properly so that the chances of
risks associated with it also gets decreased. The subject of risk has generally become of the
shared interest between number of entities that generally represent number of different
sectors. It is opined by Yang (2018) that risk is defined as the expected loss from a particular
type of hazard that is considered as one of the specified elements at risk in a particular time-
period. Proper risk management framework is mainly used for building proper generic model
that will be helpful in understanding as well as increasing the risk profiles at railways which
generally allows risk-based decision for making proper structured representation of the
causes as well as consequences for various types of potential accidents that generally arises
from the various operations of railway.
2.1 Example of railway projects with the associated risks
Standard Gauge railway project

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It is stated by Noorzai et al., (2016) that the standard gauge railway generally helps in
linking the Mombasa to Nairobi. It is considered as one of the flagship project that is mainly
under the 2030 blueprint whose main goal is to change the country within a middle income
industrialised economy by 2030. However, it is found that a quarter of about 487 km track
generally undergoes through the Tsavo Conservation rea which generally presents a great
challenge. The SGR project is mainly elevated up to 10 km in some of the sections that is
mainly fenced off by creating proper barrier to the movement of the wildlife with negative
consequences (Bensalah, Elouadi & Mharzi, 2018). In order to resolve the challenges, some
modifications were needed within the project so that a well-designed passage should be
created that will be helpful in allowing the animals to travel in search of various types of
food, mates as well as water.
High Speed 2 project
The project of High Speed 2 is considered as one of the project that is considered at
the top of Britain’s political agenda for constructing the largest infrastructure in UK. It is
found that the project of HS1 generally helps in supporting reliable train operations with very
much high level of comfort and safety (Saif et al., 2016). It is found that the entire project is
mainly divided into two of the major phases in which the first phase of the project mainly
focuses on the construction of London-Birmingham line and the second phase of the project
generally focus on separate routes.
According to Mu (2017), the most obvious challenge that is faced by the project of
high speed 2 is to make sure that the compliance with various technical specifications for
interoperability and the standard will generally allow the high-speed trains. The second
challenge that the project is that the HS2 does not have operational concept which does not
have engineering systems in terms of design as well as infrastructure. The third challenge is

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that the engineers does not select proper track which support the train with high level of
performance optimally that generally offers both high level as low maintenance with very
much good aerodynamic performance. The fourth challenge reflect that the development of
modern railway control system does not helps in offering proper level accuracy as well as
service resilience that is mainly combined with the proper level of safety. Additionally, it is
opined by Kelly et al., (2015) that the project of HS2 generally creates lot of challenges as
well as issues for all the local authorities which will generally be served by the various new
stations. It is found that the local standards within the region does not generally convey
proper benefit of high speed line.
Crossrail projects
According to He, Mol and Lu (2016), the project of Crossrail is mainly designed in
much more virtual environments that is mainly powered with the help of Bentley modelling
software that helps in providing proper overview about the entire project as well as about its
assets This project is mainly planned underground railway project. It is considered as one of
the greatest idea but unfortunately there are number of problems that occurred with the route
through which the project is planned to be undertaken.
The first problem that is associated with the project of Crossrail is that the
government gas mainly decided to take route and add proper branches to Docklands and
Heathrow. The main idea is take the local train from the Mainhead however the main
problem that is Mainhead is in in the middle (Paulsson et al., 2016). The second challenge or
problem that is mainly associated with the project is that that Shenfield does not creates no
new capacity within the rail network as it generally takes over the present services. Cost is
also one of the major challenges. It is found that the planned cost for the project will be

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around $17 billion which is found to be very much costly. It is found that there are much
more cost-effective methods that should be undertaken.
Melbourne Metro Tunnel
It is stated by Guo et al., (2014) that the metro tunnel is one of the Victoria’s largest
as well as most important transport of project. It is identified that the Metro tunnel will be
helpful inn creating proper end to end rail line with proper capacity of trains. These new
stations will be helpful in creating opportunities for urban renewal in order to create enhanced
public transport for accessing to the education and health. The complex engineering
challenges that is associated with the construction of the railway tunnel is one of the greatest
challenge for this project.
The main that is associated with the project is that the geotechnical engineers do not
checked the quality of soil that is present beneath the Yarra river and due to pressure cracked
the Brunel tunnel. In order to resolve the issues and challenges one of the important step
should be checking the soil quality before the initiation phase of the project (Milosavljevic et
al., 2018). While the soil quality was checked it is analyzed that there are number of varieties
of materials including clay, silt as well as basalts that helps would be reflecting that different
construction methodologies is required for the construction of the Railway tunnel.
Kuala Lumpur-Singapore High Speed Rail
According to Ray, Gallagher and Sarmiento (2016), Kuala Lumpur Singapore HSR is
one of the proposed railway project that will be between the capital city of Kuala, Singapore
and Lumpur. The project of HSR is mainly expected to be one of the project that will be
helpful in developing the high-speed railway in the South East Asia. The line will mainly

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include double track on various standard gauge which will further be powered with the help
of proven high-speed technologies.
It is stated by Carpintero and Petersen (2014) that the project faces lot of challenges
and issues because of the cost. It is identified that the HSR related alignment will be
approximately of 350 km and it is expected to give three main type of services including the
non-stop minute express, inter city as well as shuttle service. The construction cost of the
project will be around RM60 billion excluding the cost of land acquisition.
2.2 Risk management process
The subject of risk generally increases due to the point of shared interest between
various entities of different sectors. In order to resolve the various risks and challenges that
are associated with the project, proper risk management procedure is mainly set out within
the standards that mainly consists of number of sequential stages (Walcott & Fan, 2017). The
risks that are associated with the railway projects are generally determined with the help of
Hazard identification technique. On the other hand, the risks that are identified are generally
analyzed by knowing the frequency of the accidental events and their various respective
consequences. It is found that after all the consequences as well as frequencies of the hazards
are known then both quantitative as well as quantitative risks are utilized for estimating the
risks that are mainly associated with the railway projects. In the risk evaluation step, it is
found that the existing risks are generally classified for making appropriate decision about the
tolerability for the existing project risk.
In addition to this, risk treatment process is undertaken for selecting as well as
implementing measures that is mainly required for reducing the removal of the risks. After
identification of all sources of the risks, it is very much necessary to prioritize all the risk
treatment actions as well as risks in order to maximize the befit that is associated with the

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railway projects (Yang, 2018). It is found that two major classes of methods are mainly
considered while prioritizing the actions of the risk treatment including both the social
evaluation as well as economic evaluation. In addition to this, the risk management process is
monitored as well as reviewed for making sure that the actions or procedures that are mainly
undertaken are effective and the information which is gathered throughout the procedure is
considered to be very much effective.

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3. Top ten risks associated with ECRL project and risk assessment
The risks that are mainly associated with the project of ECRL and risk assessment is
mainly elaborated in the table that is given below:
Risk No Risk Description
1. Not feasible
economically
The East Coast Rail Link project is one of the
largest infrastructure projects in Malaysia. It is
found that the project needs to generate about an
income of around RM5.5 billion within a year by
assuming that the income is about 20 percent of the
revenue. However, the turnover was around S$3.7
billion that is around RM 11.7 billion and thus it is
identified that the project is not economically
feasible.
2. Failure of double
tracking
The rail operator KTM is expected to generate a
revenue of around RM500-RM600. However as
per the last available report of 2012, the revenue is
around RM240 million with an operating cash
flow. For 10% return, double tracking costs of
around RM36 billion and thus the cash flow
requires to rise to RM3.6 billion that is considered
to be one of the impossible tasks for the
foreseeable future.
3. Expensive It is found that the project “East Coast Rail Link”
is considered to be extremely expensive in context

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to cost per km at RM80 million when is compared
with double tracking stretch of around RM45
million. However, it is found that it is not always
comparable as the project of “East Coast Rail
Link” does not generally goes over the hilly terrain.
It is found that the analysis that is mainly
undertaken mainly hampers due to the lack of
proper information. Thus, it is identified that
budget is one of the major factor that creates
number of rusks and challenges while the project is
mainly undertaken.
4. Environmental risk It is found that the project of East Coast Rail Link
mainly poses hazard as well as treat to the wildlife
as well as to the environmentalists who are
generally asking to keep the project on hold. The
trouble that the project is creating due to the
construction of the new train line that not only
poses threat to the wild life animals but also
dissects some of the major rivers. It is found that
the new railway line is dissecting the in habitants
of the biodiverse areas which further endangering
the species. Due to this, project, all the Malaysian
tigers, elephants as well as bears are at risk and
thus the project is affecting the ecosystem. In
response to such type of criticism, the company

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wants to build wildlife underpasses so that the
problem can be resolved.
5. Rail contract risks On 14th general election, 58% of the total value of
the entire mega projects are generally got cancelled
leaving the projects that are very much smaller in
size as well as scale. Due to this, the project got
affected. It is found that CIMB research cautious
on the construction project due to the rail contract
risks. In addition to this, it is found that CIMB
cancels the HSR contract which generally reflects
that the cost of the project generally requires cost
revision before taking off the entire project.
6. Suspension in
construction
The project owner as well as contractor suspends
the construction work of the project by raising
various types of uncertainties about the future of
the project in part of the China’s Belt and Road
plan. Due to the suspension, the Malaysia generally
seeks to renegotiate in terms of the deal with
China. It is found that the project of ECRL will
become much more economically as well as
financially feasible if there is proper reduction in
the price of the project.
7. Improper cost
management
It is found that the cost that is needed for the
project is too high and the budget that is spent on
various activities of the project are not properly

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managed and as a result the cost that is associated
with the entire project rises which can create
number of financial challenges. It is quite
necessary to have proper management in order to
finish the project of East Coast Rail Link within the
budget that is approved. As the project does lags
proper management it faces lot of issues and
challenges including financial issues due to
increment in the budget of the project.
8. Contract challenges It is found that the East Coast Main line project
faces challenges due to the contracts that are made.
It is found that out of the 48 franchises, only four
have ended early. It is found that it will generally
continue to generate much more substantial return
for the government and the recent figures reflect
that the satisfaction of the passenger is about 92%.
Other challenges reflect that the contract is mainly
based on the expectations of the customers but they
are high.
9. Slow Progress It is found that the ECRL project of Malaysia
reaches up to the progress of around 13% as per the
official who is mainly involved in the mega
project. It is reflected that the project MRL does
not faces any type of issues during the resettlement
plan as well as land acquisition. Though the

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progress of the project is not as much fast as
expected and the main reason behind is improper
scheduling.
10. Improper analysis It is found that before the initiation of the ECRL
project, it is the responsibility of the project
manager to analyze the project properly so that the
risks and challenges that are associated with the
project can be easily determined. However, due to
improper analysis, the project manager does not get
proper knowledge about the risks and challenges
that can occur within the project.
4. Top Ten risks response development, management and control
The risks that are found to be associated with the project of ECRL can be mitigated
with the help of proper response development, management as well as control. The risk
mitigation steps or techniques for the various identified risks and challenges are illustrated in
the table below:
Risk No Risk Response development, management and control
1. Not feasible
economically
In order to increase the feasibility of the project
economically, it is very much important to plan the
project economically so that the earning that would be
gained from the project will be greater than the
investment so that the project can be considered
feasible. It is quite necessary for the project managers

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to check the feasibility of the project quite properly so
that it is identified that the entire project is very much
feasible and will be helpful in brining some positive
outcome in context to budget for the project.
2. Failure of double
tracking
The rail operator KTM is expected to generate a
revenue of around RM500-RM600. However, after
double tracking it is identified that the cash flow
requires to rise to RM3.6 billion that is considered to be
one of the impossible tasks for the foreseeable future.
Thus, in order to manage the issue, it is quite necessary
for the project manager to engage in the tracking of the
project before the initiation of the project so that they
can get appropriate knowledge about the cost that is
mainly gained from the project.
3. Expensive It is identified that the project of ECRL is very much
expensive in context to the cost that is needed for the
project. In order to resolve this issue, it is very much
necessary to manage the budget of the project quite
effectively so that the entire project gets finished within
the budget that is approved by the government.
4. Environmental risk In order to resolve the environmental risks of the
project, it is very much necessary for the project
manager to build wildlife underpasses so that the risks
that are faced by the wildlife get resolved. It is
identified that construction of underpasses not only

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assists in saving the endangered wildlife but also plays
a crucial role in their protection so that they do not
dissect the inhabitants of the biodiverse areas.
5. Rail contract risks On 14th general election, 58% of the total value of the
entire mega projects are generally got cancelled and
CIMB take cautious actions against the various
construction projects. In order to mitigate the problem
that is created due to the rail contract risk, it is very
much necessary to revise the cost that is associated with
the project.
6. Suspension in
construction
The project of ECRL get suspended due to the
uncertainties that are created about the future of the
project in part of the China’s Belt and Road plan. In
order to manage the problem, it is very much necessary
to analyze the uncertainties properly before starting the
project quite successfully so that the project manager
does not have to face any type of issue after the project
is initiated. Thus, during the planning phase all types of
analysis must be undertaken.
7. Improper cost
management
It is quite necessary for the project managers to
manage the cost of the project properly so that the
entire project gets completed within the approved
budget without facing any type of financials challenges.
For this, the project managers need to hire experienced
project planner who will be able to manage the budget

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that is associated with different activities of the project.
8. Contract challenges The contracts that were made in the project are mainly
based on the expectations of the customers. It is found
that the project will generally continue to generate
much more substantial return for the government which
will reflect that only 92% of the customers are satisfied
by the project. Thus, it is very much necessary for the
project managers to create contract that are very much
beneficial for the project.
9. Slow Progress It is found that the project of ECRL undergoes very
slow progress and as result the time that is needed for
the project is quite long and which will further increase
the budget of the project. In order to resolve the issue, it
is very much necessary for the project manager to
recruit experienced staffs so that they can be capable of
managing the project quite easily without facing any
type of issues and challenges.
10. Improper analysis The project manager and other staffs who are
associated with the project does not analyze the project
before initiation properly and as a result they do not get
proper knowledge about the uncertainties as well as
risks that are related with the project. For resolving this
issue, it is very much necessary to undertake proper
analysis before initiation of the project so that the
challenges and risks which are associated with the

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project can be handled quite easily without facing any
type of challenges.
5. Conclusion
It can be concluded from the entire assignment that the risks and challenges that are
associated with ECRL are identified. It is found that in this report, number of journals as well
as papers are generally reviewed in order to analyze that major railway projects and
associated risks involved. Proper analysis is undertaken in order to identify the risks that are
associated with the project. It is found that the risks that are associated with the project
includes Contract challenges, slow progress, expense, Suspension in construction as well as
improper analysis. Proper risk response development, management as well as control is
properly provided for mitigating the risks and challenges which are associated with the risks.

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