ECO12 Macroeconomics: Monetary Policy Impacts on Australian Economy

This report examines the impacts of monetary policies on the Australian economy, prompted by OECD recommendations for raising interest rates. It utilizes the Aggregate Expenditure model to illustrate the effects of economic growth and housing market dynamics on aggregate demand and real GDP. The analysis extends to the static and dynamic AD-AS models to assess the consequences of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) either following or disregarding OECD advice, particularly concerning inflation and economic stability. The report concludes that failing to adjust interest rates could lead to inflationary pressures, while premature rate hikes might hinder long-term economic recovery, emphasizing the complexities of monetary policy decisions in the Australian context.

Running Head: Official Interest Rate
The Impacts of Monetary policies on the Australian Economy
By (Name)
(Tutor)
(University)
(Date)

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The Impacts of Monetary policies on the Australian Economy
Question 1a
The Aggregate Expenditure model is obtained by AE = C + I + G + (X – M); where c is
the consumption by households, I is investment in the economy, G is government spending, X is
exports, M is imports, and (X – M) is net exports (Sexton, 2015). Having identified the
components of the AE model, the next step is to identify the various variables that is bringing
impact to our case. Growing housing market represents an improvement in the investment
component. A solid economic growth means that the aggregate expenditure will rise. Generally,
when the economy is performing well, there is a rise in investment level such that many jobs are
created and thus a fall in unemployment rate.
AD AD = Y
AD1 = C + I +
G + (X – M)
n
AD0 = C + I +
G + (X – M)
m
450
Q0 Q1 Real GDP
The economy always starts at a dissaving level where consumers are spending a certain
amount of money even when their income is zero. This is represented by the origination of the
AD0 curve at a point on the y-axis. The AD = Y curve represents the breakeven point of AD and

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real GDP. The equilibrium in the economy is obtained by the intersection of the AD and the AD
= Y line. The initial position of this economy is at m where AD0 intersects with AD = Y; at this
point, the output level is equal to Q0 (Mceachern, 2011). A rise in the demand for houses will
raise the investment component of the AE; on the other side, a sound economic growth will raise
the investment and consumption component of the economy. Since these components are
increased, the AE curve will shift outward to reflect this increase; the shift will be from AD0 to
AD1 (Bénassy, 2011). A new equilibrium level n is reached at after this increment. At the new
equilibrium level, Aggregate demand is high, and the real GDP is also higher; it has improved
from Q0 to Q1.
Question 1b
The OECD has noted that the Australian housing market is on heat and there exist
economical risks from this. An example is the US housing bubble which was the source of the
Global recession which was experienced worldwide in 2008 -2009. What is making the housing
market more attractive is the low interest rate where people have taken advantage of the low
costs of borrowing (Duff, 2017). It’s the dream of each person to own a house and thus whenever
that chance is presented to them, they usually seizing it. The ideal of raising the official interest
rate in Australia is to ensure that the cost of lending goes up and that people will avoid
borrowing and thus the demand for houses will fall (Ivan, 2017). However, this may not have a
significant effect in the short run because most investors observe the state of the economy in
order to determine the direction in which the interest rate is likely to move. The current
Australian inflation rate is low and thus investors have no expectations of rate hikes, thus they
may continue borrowing. However, after the raise of official interest rate, new investors will be
discouraged and may decide to wait until the rate falls again (Johnston, 2017). This move to rate
hikes will affect the investment and consumption function of Aggregate Demand since money
borrowed is used for either consumption or for investing.

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Question 2
Graph: Static AD-AS model
Price SRAS1
LRAS SRAS0
PL b
P1 e2
P* e1
AD1
AD0
Q* Real GDP
There are implications that may emerge if the RBA fails to raise its official rate as
advised by the OECD if there is a sound economic growth in the future. In the static model, price
is plotted against the real GDP with an assumption that Q* is the potential for this economy and
this potential is not expected to expand (Luke, 2011). Thus, the LRAS curve remains constant
and does not shift. The equilibrium given by intersection of AD and SRAS initially is at e1. A
positive shock in AD due to solid economic growth shifts it to the right from AD0 to AD1,
forming a new equilibrium at e2; this is the impacts in the short run. At equilibrium e2, the price
level is higher than at P* If the prices are flexible, a change in AD to AD1 would lead to price
level rising from point e1 to b immediately, but since it’s not flexible, its assumed that price level
in the short run will only rise narrowly to P1. Since there is an assumption that the LRAS cannot
be expanded to reflect the expanded potential at e2, the workers will translate this growth in
price as a benchmark for demanding higher wages. In return, the production costs will rise,
causing a fall in SRAS as represented by a rightward shift from SRAS0 to SRAS1. In this case
the economy has gone back to its initial level of LRAS but at a very high price level; PL is the
new price level after there has an expansion in AD and a contraction response of negative supply

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shock from equilibrium e2 back to the economy’s long run potential level LRAS. Thus failure to
heed the OECD advice will result in inflation for this economy based on static AD-AS model. If
the RBA followed the OECD’s advice, the AD would have fallen initially causing a short run fall
in price level, then the solid economic growth would only shift it back to its original position
such that price would have remained unchanged at P*.
Question 3
Graph: Dynamic AD-AS model
Price
Solow0 Solow1
SRAS0
SRAS1
P* e1
P0 e2
AD0 AD1
Q* Q0 Qn Real GDP
In the case of dynamic AD-AS model, the changes in price level is plotted against the
real GDP (Hubbard, Garnett, Lewis & O’Brien, 2014). The equilibrium level is also determined
by the intersection of SRAS curve and the AD. However in this case, the LRAS curve is replaced
by the Solow curve; this curve represents the potential real GDP growth rate. The Solow curve is
based on real factors of production where Q* = f (A, K, L) where A is multifactor productivity, k
is capital and l is labor. In this case, prices are assumed to be perfectly flexible (Evans, 2016).
There are several factors that have been claimed to be responsible for shifting the Solow curve.
These factors include; weather, strikes, wars, R&D, infrastructure, innovation, competitiveness,
labor market flexibility, education and training. The AD curve represents (M + V) where M is
money supply and V is velocity of money. It’s assumed that M + V = P + Y. Velocity shocks are

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caused by; wealth which impacts households’ consumption level, confidence which impacts
business investment, stimulus which impacts government spending, tax changes which impacts
net exports, and money demand. The nominal shock are believed to only impact inflation level.
In the future, due to increments in population and advancement in technology, the
potential for productivity in Australia will shift from Solow curve Solow0 to Solow1; the
corresponding real GDP is Qn. The equilibrium point currently is at e1 where the SRAS0 curve
intersects with the AD0 curve. Since Australia doesn’t raise the official rate today due to the
existence of low inflation level, the aggregate demand will rise in the future. However, it’s noted
that the change in aggregate demand does not reach the new potential level, thus the real GDP
will be at Q0, which is higher that Q* but lower than Qn. The changes in SRAS will also be
positive in the future and may exceed AD as shown above. Thus, a new equilibrium e2 is
formed. This new equilibrium is at a lower price level. Now if the RBA decides it’s time to raise
the official rate, the economy will be worse off since a leftward movement of the AD curve
would lower the inflation rate further, the output level will fall, and more people will be
unemployed. Thus, the long run recovery will still have hurdles and difficult to achieve. Thus as
argued by Fry (2016), low interest rate is not good for the Australian economy.

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References
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https://www.slideshare.net/AnthonyEvans1/the-dynamic-ad-as-model [Accessed 15 Oct. 2018].
Fry, R. (2016). Low Interest Rates are Hurting Growth. [Online] Forbes.com. Available at:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2016/10/04/low-interest-rates-are-hurting-growth/
#44adb12db605 [Accessed 13 Oct. 2018].
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interest-rates-increase-investment-spending.asp [Accessed 13 Oct. 2018].
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Available at: http://smallbusiness.chron.com/effect-interest-rates-business-69947.html [Accessed
13 Oct. 2018].
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https://econproph.com/2011/03/02/ad-as-model-explained/ [Accessed 15 Oct. 2018].
Mceachern, A. (2011). Macroeconomics. Mason, Ohio, South-Western.
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