Assessing the Economic Impact of COVID-19 and UK Government Actions

This report assesses the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the United Kingdom, focusing on the government's and the Bank of England's responses. It examines the effects of lockdowns on the UK economy using the circular flow of income model, detailing how production, income, and expenditure were affected. Government interventions such as the Job Retention Scheme, Kickstart Scheme, and Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme are analyzed for their impact on the circular flow of income. The Bank of England's role in stabilizing the economy through monetary policy measures is also discussed. Furthermore, the report considers the potential economic impacts of Brexit on the UK economy. The analysis uses the national accounts framework to explain how these impacts are recorded in terms of production, income, and expenditures, providing a comprehensive overview of the economic challenges and policy responses during this period.

Evaluating the contemporary
business

INTRODUCTION
Contemporary business environment is hugely associated with natural, political, economic,
cultural and other environment. Moreover, economic environment defines the economical
situation, various policies and system of economy. While, non- economic environment
incorporates natural environment, socio- cultural economy and legal, demographic and
technological surroundings. The main aim of this report is to understand the economic impact of
COVID-19 as well as economic response of central bank and government. So, for accomplishing
it some topics which are going to be discussed in this report are key impacts of lockdown on UK
economy with assistance of circular flow of income, major economic response of UK’s
government and its impact upon circular income flow of UK. Moreover, the response of Bank of
England and its implication upon UK’s circular income flow are also explained. Apart from this,
the likely impacts of Brexit upon economy of United Kingdom are also discussed in this report.
MAIN BODY
1.
The circular flow of income or circular flow is considered as the model of economy
wherein key exchanges are presented as flow of funds, products or services and others among
economic agents. Moreover, the flows of money as well as products exchanges into closed
circuit correspond into value, but run in opposite directions. Additionally, this is essential as it
develops a link among customers and producers. It is through income which producers purchase
the services of production factors with that the latter, in turn, buys products from the
manufacturer. In addition to this, the economy is considered as a “circular flow of income”.
One individuals spending is others incomes. national incomes is undertaken as sum of
everyone’s spending as well as loosely speaking , development comes from enhanced velocity of
those spending. Social distancing or lock down is deliberate interruption into that flow of
incomes. So, a circuit breaker for the virus is essentially a circuit breaker for economy.
additionally, the pandemic driven slow down of 2020 is not consider as ordinary recession which
is highlighted through slower spending pace; this is one of the proactive attempt for freezing
huge parts of economy within standstill.
Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates a fall within United Kingdom as
well as international economy present year which Might be greater than declines that end up
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skilled in 12 months 2008 to 2009 global financial disaster. Also, the anticipated financial
impacts of coronavirus (COVID-19) upon the UK are defined by way of the national money
owed framework. It is for explaining how those impacts are probably recorded into production,
income and expenditures.
Production
This is anticipated that there can be lower manufacturing degrees in reaction towards lower
demands for products or services within United Kingdom that would be represented into
dropping down sales as well as in turn business closures. Additionally, it would also minimised
employment level as well as hours performed, as labour supply would also be affected through
staff voluntarily as well as involuntarily staying at home. Moreover, the procedures of
production for various sectors are quite covered within the international financial system so that
disruption as well. Also, in numerous instances breakdown of supply chains may want to
probably drive towards low production. However, there may be few sectors that additionally
reports and enhance manufacturing in response to COVID-19. There would be few sectors which
are much exposed towards COVID-19 pandemic, mainly that are much affected through
limitations into areas as well as social distancing which is being consider. In the company
industries, the impact is probably boundless. Late research functions how beyond pandemics
have shown that "tour, journey industry, and face-to-face retail benefits are mainly powerless, as
are businesses where representatives want to paintings nearby exceptional human beings", which
replicate those agencies which can be commonly offered with the impacts of social distancing.
Income
Any negative impacts of COVID-19 upon products & service’s demand and supply within
United Kingdom economy that would drives towards low utilisation of capitals and labours
inputs into production procedures at headline level. Moreover, a drop down into employment
levels as well as hours worked would low staff compensation that specifically salaries and wages
payment. Additionally, there can also be an ease to gain growth from any increase into slack
level into labour market. Also, any minimisation within capital income would be highlighted into
gross operating surplus which represents fall into firm’s profitability. There might be a drop
down into mixed income that acquires the returns to self employed in case that activity is also
affected.
Expenditure
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Household consumption would mirror how unimportant spending is relied upon to be
lower. The terminations of stores and intentional boundaries on dispositions are relied upon to
burdensome kinds of expenditure, while it is normal that those exchanges that require direct
touch amongst shoppers and groups may be affected. There may additionally likewise be an
adjustment of the profiling and affiliation of customer spending, mirroring the social reactions of
families to COVID-19. Any unfavourable impact on purchaser certainty might prompt an
increase in prudent reserve funds, assuming that salaries are held.
Organizations might be relied upon to lessen their capital consumption and drop existing
requests, given the increased degrees of vulnerability and any fixing in monetary conditions.
Venture might be affected as a result of the absence of development action and the capacity to
import capital products. There might be some underlying shape up of specific varieties of
inventories through corporations inside the midst of issues of barriers on the global development
of middle intermediate inputs, however, there is probably a direction of de-loading or reductions
later inside the yr. The manner that COVID-19 is an international pandemic is probably relied
upon to have an impact on gross change streams, mirroring the projected lower tiers of outside
interest and any lower inside the changing electricity of hobby. The impact on the home name
for a hobby will likewise have an impact on import volumes. Government usage in nice spaces is
probably better consequently, most remarkably a large change in fitness spending
2.
In light of growing the range of guidelines that consists of distinctive country-wide
lockdown inside England from November to December, some of the financial aid measures
which have been due to stop were prolonged in the New Year. Along with managing the fitness
as well as a financial drop down due to COVID-19 pandemic, the UK’s authorities is also
covered into negotiations with EU associated with quit of Brexit transition period. So, some of
the major economic response of United Kingdom’s government and its impacts upon the UK’s
circular flow of income are discussed below:
Employment related responses and measures:
Job retention schemes (JRS) which applied into England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales.
 The JRS have been formed for helping the employers who are not able to maintain its
present personnel as its process are impacted using way of the COVID-19 outbreak..
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 Additionally, the entitled company may additionally observe to HMRC for a provide
closer to the price of employment to eligible man or women who're quick not acting or
running minimized factor time hours, because of the outbreak. Also, the scheme has been
scheduled on closing of 31 October, however, has now been prolonged for an additional 5
months until March 2021.
Kickstart scheme (Applies in England, Scotland and Wales only)
 An employment support the scheme which is targeted at those whose aged are 16 to 24
and claiming the Universal Credit as well as are at risk of longer term unemployment.
also, the Department for Work and Pensions directions upon scheme also provided.
 Along with this, for every “kick-starter” placement, government would cover initial 6
Months of worker’s wages rate at 25 hours work of art in keeping with a week at a
relevant minimal wages. Additionally, government would also include the related
organization National Insurance contributions in addition to smallest amount automatic
staffing pension contributions.
 The initial placement began within November and about 20, 000 individuals have been
employed upon scheme that would run until December, 2021.
Economic Stimulus response and measures
Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme for smaller businesses (for Businesses with
turnover of up to £45m).
 Within the Corona virus Business Interruptions Loan Scheme (CBILS) the business of
United Kingdom along with annual turnover of numbers above £45m may borrow up to
£5m interest lose for round 3 hundred and sixty-five days proper into a British Business
Bank (BBB) scheme in which government allows the lender adds to guarantee for about
80% of each loan in addition to covers price of preliminary one year of pastime.
 Financing may be facilitated within CBILS for upto 6 years by term leans, invoices
finance, overdrafts as well as benefit finance. Additionally, the £45m turnover entrance
apply in the way of a collection turnover, in place of people shape turnover level. Also,
access to CBILS is to be had by using over a hundred BBB authorized creditors..
COVID-19 Corporate Finance Facility (CCFF)
 The CCFF have been formed for assistng financial support toward massive businesses
thru the purchase of shorter term corporation debt right into the form of enterprise paper.
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Moreover, the Bank of England has posted a path upon the facility that consists of
clarification of eligibility in addition to the manner to take a look at..
 In addition to this, funding is open for firms that makes a material contribution to
economy of UK and become Capable of monitor they have been into sound financial
health previous closer to the pandemic. Also, with longer and shorter-term funding
agreed on credit score rating or otherwise become competent for demonstrating the
monetary strengths equivalent towards investment grade.
 The CCFF introduce on 23 March, 2020 as well as Bank of England information revealed
upon April, 2020 which was represented that £1.9 billion of commercial paper that have
been purchase within this facility already and based upon the HM treasury that released
upon April and further £1.6 billion has been committed.
Pay as you grow
 The announces into September month, The Pay as you Grow scheme permits companies
that borrowed a Bounce Back Loan the option for repaying its mortgage upon a period of
10 years in opposed to 6 years thereby minimizing the month-to-month payments.
 Businesses would also have the options for moving towards interests that only payments
for period of about six months or for pause its repayment wholly for 6 months.
Measure to ease the lockdown
The Government of United Kingdom introduce a recovery strategy that explained three
phases of exit lockdown. Moreover, from May, folks that aren't working from home who have
been actively prompted inside the path of pass back to paintings rendered social distancing inside
artwork location which can be maintained. Additionally, from June at in advance, doors retail
have been not become competent for reopening as well as primary schools has also initiated to
reopen. In addition to this, other non-essential retail would become competent for reopening in
case they may meet COVID- secure guidelines. Also, a number of the closing ventures and
premises which has been needed to shut might be reopened if social distancing can be in the
region
3.
The role of Bank of England is to assists United Kingdom’s business as well as Households
manipulate using an economic shock which may additionally show huge and sharp, however,
might be transient. Furthermore, the Bank’s three coverage committees are presently bringing an
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entire as well as on time packages of measures for aids UK business and households that bridges
across the disruption of economy which is likely to be related with COVID-19. In addition to
this, these measures would aids to keep entities into business and individuals into jobs as well as
aids in preventing transient disruption from causing long-lasting price range-pleasant harm.
Additionally, the following spread of COVID-19 risky belongings in addition to commodity
value has to drop down sharply in addition to government bond yields that reached whole time
lows, consistent with marked deterioration into the chance urge for meals and outlooks for
international & United Kingdom development. Though monetary shock value from COVID-19 is
higher uncertain, practices are possibly weakened materially inside the UK. So, some of the
predominant responses of the Bank of England and their implications on the United Kingdom’s
round circular flow of income are discussed below:
PRC issues supervisory guidance
 Te countercyclical capital buffer reinforces the FPC and PRC anticipation which well-
known additives of banks capital and liquidity buffers may be drawn down as crucial to
assists monetary machine by way of this brief shock. Additionally, prudential guideline
authorities (PRA) have currently establishes their supervisory anticipations which banks
might not enhance dividends or extraordinary distributions like bonuses inside response
to those policy movements. Most of the banks of the UK are properly ready to withstand
excessive disruption of the marketplace. Also, it holds £1 trillion of better fantastic liquid
belongings that allows them to assembly its maturing duties for numerous months.
 Furthermore, the Bank of England have operations into the region for making loans to
banks internal entire foremost currencies upon a weekly basis. Additionally, the banks
have pre-positioned collateral collectively with the Bank of England that permits them to
borrow approximately £300 billion with the useful resource of these amenities. in
addition to this, the actions announced through three policy committee of Bank of
England that includes comprehensive as well as on time packages for permitting
businesses as well as households of United Kingdom for bridging temporary tough period
and so for mitigating any long lasting impacts of COVID-19 upon jobs, development and
UK economy. Also, the Bank would undertake whole further essential step for supporting
the economy of United Kingdom as well as financial system, consistent with their
statutory accountabilities.
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FPC releases the UK countercyclical capital buffer
For supporting In addition to the Bank's skills to deliver credit required for bridging capacity
tough period, the financial coverage committee (FPC) has minimize the United Kingdom
countercyclical capital fee of buffer to zero% of banks exposures to debtors with on the spot
impacts. Moreover, the rate has been 1% in addition to were due to reaching 2% through
December 2020. Additionally, FPC anticipates maintaining a 0% charge for at least 365 days, so
that any subsequent enhancement may not undertake effects until March 2022. Though the
disruption arising from COVID-19 is probably sharp in addition to massive, this should no
longer be quick. Such economic disruption has lessened an effect upon the center device of
banking in assessment to modern-day pressure take a look at run thru bank have represented the
device may face up to. Those tests of stress explained that banks might become competent for
continuing to lend business and households even though absorbing substantial impact, prolonged
economical downturns into both UK and international economies and drops down into assets
costs as much as larger than experienced.
4.
Brexit is considered as the possibilities of Britain withdrawing from the European Union (EU).
The country would hold a referendum upon their EU membership on June. Moreover, since the
United Kingdom finally Brexited into January 2021, the affects have been felt through
businesses as well as individuals. Though, this has sometimes been difficult for distinguish the
Brexit impacts from overwhelming affects of COVID. Additionally, the United Kingdom
economy is presently around similar size as this was into early year 2015, after COVID as well
as possibly Brexit wiped out 5 years of economic development into some more than a year.
Some more key Brexit effects include:
 Brtish imports from as well as exports to EU which have been toughest hit through new
border formalities. Though few industry report developments since the early chaos in
January, it also says the issues run deeply than teething difficulties.
 British producers reported a near record enhances into disruption of supply chain that
appears to be continue and enhance costs, attributed towards Brexit and COVID.
 The Brexit deals included only vague that commitments upon services as well as left
monetary services towards separate procedures. Additionally, the United Kingdom and
EU have currently reached a memorandum of understandings upon further cooperation.
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Also, this is thought that might assists City of London entities regain little access towards
EU which was lost when United Kingdom left the EU’s individuals market.
CONCLUSION
As per the above report, it has been concluded that it is essential to evaluate the
contemporary business environment. The reason behind this is hugely associated with natural,
political, economic, cultural and other environment. Moreover, the government of United
Kingdom introduce a recovery strategy that explained three phases of exiting lockdown.
Additionally, individuals who are not work from home that have been actively motivated
towards return to work, rendered social distancing within work area which may be maintained. In
addition to this, United Kingdom finally Brexited into January 2021, the affects have been felt
through businesses as well as individuals. Though, this has sometimes been difficult for
distinguish the Brexit impacts from overwhelming affects of COVID.
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