Al Ittihad School Economics Project: Toilet Paper Shortage Analysis

This economics project analyzes the toilet paper shortage in the US during the COVID-19 pandemic. The project begins by identifying the shortage, providing evidence from various sources, and outlining the market under consideration. It then delves into the causes of the shortage, focusing on the impact of the pandemic on consumer expectations, government lockdowns, and reduced production rates. The analysis examines the determinants of demand and supply, highlighting how the pandemic-induced panic buying and production halts contributed to the scarcity. Furthermore, the project discusses the lack of price increases and importations, citing government statements and supplier perspectives. The conclusion emphasizes the unprecedented nature of the shortage, the need for controlled consumer behavior, and the importance of responsible consumption. The project also includes references to relevant articles and publications.

8/4/2020.
“WARNING TISSUES IN
SHORTAGE”
Following the current outbreak of COVID-19 US has
experienced toilet paper shortages. According to the reports
from the daily adverts, most of the suppliers in the market have
argued that they are not positively sure when the supply will
resume to the normal. No one has ever imagined how US a
superpower nation can incur shortages of small products such
as toilet paper. It has become a nightmare in all states as
shelves have remained empty.
a. When might a shortage occur?
I think the current situation of the COVID-19
pandemic has revealed everything in the US. It is now three
weeks since the government reported the shortages of toilet
paper. Companies are worried about how the supply will shift
to the average level (Tian et al 2020). No one has the exact
prediction when the amount is going to change, but hopefully,
if the pandemic ends, all is going to be right.
b. What market will you talk about?
I will focus on the supply of tissues in the US.
c. Is this market in surplus or shortage?
The supply of the tissues is low as compared to other
days. In history, the US has never experienced shortages. With
the outbreak of COVID-19, things have overturned, thus
making bewildering every citizen in the US.
I have realized there are shortages after reading some of
the newspapers. Besides, the government has also outlined
reports showing how the states will incur deficits of tissue
paper.
Supply is uncertain!
https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2020/4/3/21206942/toilet-
paper-coronavirus-shortage-supply-chain
Why pile up toilet papers in our
rooms?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/coronavirus-toilet-
paper-shortage-panic/2020/04/07/1fd30e92-75b5-11ea-87da-
77a8136c1a6d_story.html
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Several articles, government publications, and also
images from shops affirms that there are shortages of toilet
papers everywhere in the US. Some of the advertisements that
have been used to create awareness are as shown below;
Empty shelves
https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2020/4/3/21206942/toilet-
paper-coronavirus-shortage-supply-chain
b. Causes (determinants of demand
and supply/ shifters):
From the classwork, we have identified some of the
factors that can cause supply and demand in the market.
According to the current business analysis, the outbreak of the
COVID-19 made everything look peculiar (Tabri et al 2020).
The idea is that the disaster as made the customer expectation
of going high as compared to the other days.
Most of the people were seen shopping for a large
number of these products. The government indicated that
people have been purchasing a large number of toilet papers
instead of using the little they have bought. The government
quoted that "There is no need to buy in bulk but first use
whatever you have in your home." (Pagano et al 2020).The
expectation raised when the government declared a lockdown,
thus forcing a large number of people to stay at home to
combat the spread of the disease that has threated the entire
world.
Besides, the low production rate has caused shortages
(Feng et al 2020). The pandemic made some of the companies
to halt their normal operations. The public relations manager
said that 90% of the total toilet papers are produced inside the
US. The idea is that companies have been closed to control the
pandemic, thus cutting off the supply. Through this analogy, it
means that only 10% of the toilet papers comes from the other
markets. 10% is a small supply, thus making the population in
the US to suffer (ROLLS, 2020).
Empty shelves
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/business/toilet-paper-
shortage.html
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What to expect?
For now, nothing has been reported about issues such
as price increase. The point is that most of the suppliers are
continuously indicating that supply will stabilize soon. Most of
the customers have been buying these products in bulk due to
the panic caused by the pandemic (Basch et al 2020). The
president of the Precession Paper Converters said that "You are
not buying these products for use, you just filling up your
closets with it." Therefore, from his statement, it seems that the
nation is not anticipating prices to increase.
Besides, there are no cases of the importation of these
toilet papers in the country. Most of the government officials
have argued that the import of the product cannot meet the
demand; thus, no need for external producers. "The internal
production is enough, and we hope the supply will get back to
normal soon," said Jeff Anderson. He also added that the
workers are working day and night to ensure toilet papers and
also facial tissues are being supplied everywhere to help in
fighting the pandemic in the country.
No importation we ready to meet demand.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/business/toilet-paper-
shortage.html
To sum up, the shortage of toilet paper is a peculiar
thing that has never happened in the US. The outbreak of the
COVID-19 has increased the tension in the US and also in the
whole world. A large number of people have bought some of
the products on shelves in bulk. Therefore, the point is that the
government should control this issue to limit bulk buying—no
need to fill the closets with a large number of these products.
We have to use the little we have instead of pilling the stocks
in our rooms.
References
Basch, C. H., Hillyer, G. C., Meleo-Erwin, Z. C., Jaime, C.,
Mohlman, J., & Basch, C. E. (2020). Preventive
Behaviors Conveyed on YouTube to Mitigate
Transmission of COVID-19: Cross-Sectional
Study. JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, 6(2),
e18807.
Feng, S., Shen, C., Xia, N., Song, W., Fan, M., & Cowling, B.
J. (2020). Rational use of face masks in the COVID-19
pandemic. The Lancet Respiratory Medicine.
Pagano, M. B., Hess, J. R., Tsang, H. C., Staley, E.,
Gernsheimer, T., Sen, N., ... & Alcorn, K. (2020).
Prepare to adapt: Blood supply and transfusion support
during the first 2 weeks of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus
(COVID 19) pandemic affecting Washington‐
State. Transfusion.
ROLLS, T. (2020). Could toilet paper be the new consumer
fear index?.
Tabri, N., Hollingshead, S., & Wohl, M. (2020). Framing
COVID-19 as an Existential Threat Predicts Anxious
Arousal and Prejudice towards Chinese People.
Tian, S., Hu, W., Niu, L., Liu, H., Xu, H., & Xiao, S. Y.
(2020). Pulmonary pathology of early phase 2019 novel
coronavirus (COVID-19) pneumonia in two patients
with lung cancer. Journal of Thoracic Oncology.
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