El Niño and La Niña: Ocean and Atmospheric Dynamics Report

This report provides an overview of El Niño and La Niña, detailing their impact on weather patterns and climate change. It explores the historical context, from early observations of atmospheric pressure and rainfall to the development of computer models for prediction. The report highlights the key role of ocean and atmospheric parameters, including sea surface temperatures, trade winds, and the thermocline, in driving these phenomena. It discusses the evolution of scientific understanding, including the identification of the Southern Oscillation and the development of ENSO models. The analysis also covers the use of satellite technology and real-time data to enhance prediction accuracy and the importance of understanding both El Niño and La Niña events for disaster management. The report emphasizes the need for continuous monitoring and comprehensive data collection to improve the prediction of these climate events and mitigate their adverse effects.

EL- NIÑO AND LA NIÑA: TRACING THE DANCE OF OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERE
Summary
Weather changes have been a major occurrence since ages in the past and have led to
different results which h affect the human activities and lives. To predict the future weather
condition requires a lot of information and passing it over distances. Satellites, commercial
airlines and ships nowadays have enhanced the information collection. Nevertheless, with all the
advances in technology on weather predicts, it is only possible to accurately predict the weather
only a few days in advance. This makes it hard to the meteorologists to predict the onset of
climatic events such as El-Niño phase of ENSO several months before it happens. It is argued
that the main drive of the climate change is on the heating and the cooling of the tropical Pacific
Ocean. This makes the atmosphere and the oceans the main drivers of the global heating. The
information of the subsurface temperature is believed to be vital in climatic predictions. For
proper El-Niño correct and accurate prediction can be achieved by understanding of the
subsurface temperatures especially on some parts of tropical Pacific Ocean and thus help in
proper prediction months earlier.
The El-Niño puzzle started with key observations made through the study of the
atmosphere parameters by Sir Gilbert Walker. In his study of the atmospheric temperature,
pressure and rainfall data for about 40 years led to the conclusion that when the atmospheric
pressure was high on eastern Southern Pacific and Indian Ocean, the pressure was low on the
other opposite region. The pressure difference between the two regions which he named as the
seesaw patterns were concluded to cause the availability of a lot of rains in India or even the
drought. Nevertheless, Walker was unable to identify the physical processes which led to the

Southern Oscillation. Much of the research on the same increased in 1957 with the wake of first
satellite to study the atmosphere parameters.
Later Jacob Bjerknes was able to identify that the difference in sea temperatures was able
to cause the difference in pressures in the two regions. The movement of the wind were
determined by the difference in temperature and pressures. These winds are able to result to the
climate events happening. In order to find the predictability of the Jacobs research, computer
modeling was invented in the 1950s. The use of atmospheric general circulation models
(AGCMs) for atmospheric simulation was started in 1970s. the model is able to monitor
atmospheric parameters changes in layers. Additionally, the study of the Ocean parameters could
not be ignored on the contribution of the El-Niño happening. Proper monitoring of the ocean
parameters was less during the study by Jacob. The strong trade winds were found to be
responsible in pushing the warm surface water to the west along the Equator and pilling it against
Indonesia. This leads to the increase of the seal level in Western Pacific and thus creating the
thermocline, which is the interface between the warm surface water and the cold deep ocean. The
thermocline is able to lie near the surface. According to Wyrtki, when the trade wind fails, warm
waves are released from west to east across Pacific Ocean and this pushes thermocline much
deeper. Sea surface temperature is able to rise in the east. With such delay, Wyrtki was able to
recognize the potential prediction of such events in advance. Ocean parameters such as Pacific
displays a periodic, although irregular, character involving a complex interplay of waves,
currents as well as undercurrents are associated with ENSO. In 1970s, the use of models to
predict what goes on ocean began. Simulation of what happened with different air temperatures
was carried out. The models showed that changes in the winds in western Pacific were able to
lead to changes in eastern pacific sea level and resulted to El-Niño. Continuous measurement of

the ocean parameters and their documentation was main source of prediction of the weather
changes.
By 1980s, the scientists had studied the past six El-Niño events and had coined the way
the events evolve. They were able to coin the temperature changes to the El-Niño phases in
northern hemisphere. Later after the El-Niño, the prediction of the La Niña event was also done.
El Niño sights were able to be predicted and seen in 1982. It was found that other events are able
to disrupt the satellite information transmission. The equatorial bouys nevertheless are able to
give proper measurements nowadays and help in predicting the coming threats. More systematic
and comprehensive data is therefore required to enhance the accurate predictions of such events.
Reliable observational data is required to support the experimental forecasts. The real time realist
model provided by National Meteorological Center in Washington is able to enhance the
observation of atmosphere and ocean parameters. Combination of different dataset is able to
enhance the prediction accuracy of such events. The El Niño behavior nowadays can be correctly
be predicted through combination of TOGA data and satellite measurements of sea levels and sea
surface temperatures.
Analysis
The happening of both El Niño and the La Niña have been proven to result from different
perspectives. First, many people only indicate the weather and climate changes which do happen.
Beneath the changes, scientists have proven a lot do happen leading to the El Niño and the La
Niña events. The changes in both atmospheric and oceanic parameters have been proven to be
main cause of these events. Ocean parameters and atmospheric parameters have proven over the
past to be the main parameters which predict the oncoming of such event changes. It clear that
parameter changes in these areas is able to lead to the extreme weather and climate conditions.

This has been proven to happen at a cycle of 4 years. The advancement of the data collection and
interpretation are the key on the realistic and accurate prediction of the El Niño and the La Niña
events. The advancement in technology to include the models have been widely used to predict
the duration fall for such events. The different models present fed with current data are able to
show what is likely to happen in next few months and thus help in disaster management and
control of adverse effects of such events. With the proper monitoring and predictions, earlier
warnings are issued and this helps in the mitigation of the disastrous effects of El Niño.extensive
and realtime data has been enhances through satellite technology. The investment on satellite
technology has been able to help in modelling the effect of some key changes which are
experienced on those places. This helps in predicting what is likely to happen when some
changes do happen on the parameters on ocean and atmosphere. Enhancing the capture of real
time data from the atmosphere and ocean is the only key to proper and accurate prediction of the
El Niño and La Niña events.