Global Energy Transformation: Scenarios and Projections for 2050

This report provides an overview of the projected energy landscape in 2050, emphasizing the transition to renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power. It examines current energy production trends, analyzes game-changing factors influencing the energy sector, and presents different energy scenarios based on factors like economic growth, technological advancements, and policy changes. The report includes case studies focusing on the energy scenario in the U.S.A and the expected growth of wind energy. It also discusses the importance of energy storage and the progress made in this sector. The analysis utilizes tools like the Hubbert Linearization technique and considers the impact of electric vehicles and fragmentation in the energy market. Ultimately, the report anticipates a significant shift towards clean energy and a reduction in carbon emissions by 2050.

Running head: Energy in 2050
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ENERGY IN 2050
INTRODUCTION: 5%
Energy is simply defined as the ability to carry out work (Shove, 2014). Energy is almost
indispensable in the modern-day world as it is a critical determinant of the economy of any
nation. Energy forms such as electricity are transformed and used to warm us during winters.
Energy is also used in mobile phone and television technologies, in hospitals, at homes and
schools for lighting among many other applications (Goldemberg, 1987).
Currently, the main sources of energy are Coal and natural gas with a combined
percentage contribution of about 62.2 %. Renewable sources such as hydroelectricity contribute
only16.4 % while solar energy and wind energy have a cumulative share of about 6.3 %
(Roubanis, 2010).However, this situation is touted to change by 2050, with most of the energy
produced in the world expected to be from renewable sources such as wind and solar. With a lot
of research being carried out in this field, this is a real possibility and it is very much welcomed
and anticipated by environmentalists from all over the world.
The use of nonrenewable carbon-based sources over the years has led to global warming.
Global warming is caused by the release of greenhouse gases such as carbon (IV) oxide in the
atmosphere. Carbon (IV) is a product of combustion of all carbon-based fuels. Global warming is
a top threat to ecosystems around the world.
ENERGY SCENARIO IN 2018: 15%
Energy production has been significantly and steadily rising over the years. The year
2017 experienced a 2.8 % growth relative to the previous year 2016. This growth has been
accelerated in the past couple years since the 10-year global average growth is 1.7 %. A huge
chunk (94 %) of this growth is mainly from the developing countries (Meibon, 2000).
Renewable energy sources currently contribute to about half (49 %) of the energy
produced globally. Total renewable energy generated globally has also grown from 7.4 % to 8.4
% which is a very positive trend. Almost half (44 %) of the remaining energy generated
worldwide comes from coal. It’s also notable that energy generation from member states of the
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has not changed since 2010
(Reddy, 1990).

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In 2017, the world produced a total energy of 24, 345 TW/h or 13,511.2 million barrels of
oil when expressed as an equivalent of barrels of oil produced. By the International Energy
Agency estimates, the biggest energy sources by generation volumes have been and still is Coal
with a share of about 39.3 % followed by natural gas with a 22.9 % share. The third largest
source was hydroelectricity at 16.4 % which was followed by nuclear energy at 10.6 %. Other
sources such as solar energy, wind energy, and biomass-based sources cumulatively had a 6.3 %
share. Surprisingly, oil had a meager contribution of 4.1 % (Meibon, 2000).
Figure 1. Currennt World electricity production by source
Figure 2. 2016 energy production
The fuel source that has experienced the most growth in consumption is natural gas.
Renewable energy sources fall in the second position and then followed by oil. Global energy
consumption volumes in the previous year rose by 3.1 percent with China leading for the past 17

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years. The bad news in current world trends is that carbon emission volumes rose by 1.6 %
(Reddy, 1990).
The two largest producers of energy in the world are The U.S.A and China with 21.6 %
and 16 % as a fraction of the global energy produced.
GAME CHANGERS IN ENERGY SCENARIO AND NEW ENERGY LANDSCAPE.
The Hubbert Linearization technique is the main analysis tool used to project global
energy trends in 2050 (Anderson, 2011). Energy demand worldwide is expected to double by
2050. Economic growths in China and India will be the main driving forces towards this
demographic. Global energy consumption is expected to peak I the year 2043 with a projected
oil equivalent of almost 16,333 million tonnes (Edmonds, 1983).
The largest renewable energy source will be Geothermal and wind. Non-renewable
energy production will also decrease gradually due to the aforementioned game changers. China,
India and the U.S.A will be the three largest producers of energy worldwide.
Figure 3. Global energy scenario at 2050

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Figure 4. Global energy scenario at 2050 by country
More than half of energy produced in 2050 is expected to be from renewable sources as
projected by the Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies. The energy efficiency and power
savings are also expected to increase by a factor of 50 %. The carbon emissions will decrease in
a bid to achieve the global target of below 2 degrees Celsius (Edmonds, 1983).
Figure 5. Renewable energy production by 2050
In the situation whereby 139 counties adopt a 100 % wind, water, and solar energy
generation policy, About 52 million jobs will be created and about 27.7 million will be lost.
Solar energy will account for 57.55 % and wind 37.14 % globally (Edmonds, 1983).

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Figure 6. 2050 projections when 100 countries adopt 100 % wind, water and solar.
New energy sources are being explored as time advances. In the next twenty years,
twenty new sources are projected to be introduced to the global energy market. The challenge
will then be how different governments will allocate resources for research in these new
technologies. Reliability and renewability of the energy source will be used as the guideline for
resource allocation. Governments will favor Renewable sources and the highly reliable sources
(Al-Maamary, 2017).
The Electric Car is also considered a game changer in the energy circles. According to
current projections, advancement in technology will lead to high capacity and low costs batteries
by 2025. This will make the cost of producing electric cars cheaper. The popularity of these cars
will increase also due to innovations such as a self-driving car and car ride sharing (Kuntzky,
2013). Electric vehicles will account for averagely 32 % of the total cars sold annually. Global
demand for carbon-based fuel will go down by up to 25% (Kriegler, 2013).

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Figure 7. Global demand for light-vehicle liquid fuels will decrease.
Fragmentation is the third game changer expected to transform the energy generation
sector. This will be due to the increase in capital invested in the sector by smaller players. The
main players in the energy sector have traditionally been national governments and the public
market. New players like private equity companies and pension finances have entered this
market. This decentralization can partly be attributed to the fact that some governments have run
out of liquidity. The scale will no longer be influencing the markets due to this new
fragmentation trend (Van de Graaf, 2013).
Notable to mention is the rapid technological advancements in the solar energy sector.
Capacities are expected to continue to rise and production costs to lower making it a very
attractive option for energy production. Many experts in this sector seem to agree the needed
breakthrough will be unlocked in the near future (Mills, 2004).
CASE STUDY: THE ENERGY SCENARIO IN THE U.S.A IN 2050.
The U.S.A is expected to invest 11.5 trillion USD in the clean energy sector by the year
2050 into the clean energy sector. This is so since a large percentage of energy consumed will be
from renewable sources. A huge percentage of this investment that is 84.4 trillion USD will go
into the wind and solar sector. The nuclear and hydro-electricity sector both non-carbon emitting
sectors will only receive 1.5 trillion USD (Williams, 2011).
The Energy Policy Simulation (EPS) tool was used by the Energy innovation group to
predict the energy situation in America in 2050. Three scenarios which are the business-as-usual,

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low natural gas scenario and the solar import tariff were considered. The EPS revealed that even
with low prices of natural gas, the capacity of producing wind and solar power will increase.
This is because coal plants which are considered to be generally uneconomical will be shut
down.
By the year 2050, renewable energy sources will account for over 43 % of the total
energy generated. Off this, solar power will account for about 4s5.24 % while wind will account
for 50 %. Hydroelectricity will only contribute a portion of 3 % of the total energy (Williams,
2011).
Figure 8. Transition to the wind, water, and solar production in 2050

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Figure 9. Comparison between energy trends today and 2050.
CASE STUDY: EXPECTED SCENARIO OF WIND ENERGY IN 2050.
It has been projected by Bloomberg new energy finance limited (BNEF) that half of the
world’s energy production will be from renewable sources. The Global Wind Energy Outlook
2014 report estimates that wind power will account for an average value of 27.5 % in global
power production. This is commensurate to a global capacity of about 2,000 gigawatts. This will
reduce global carbon emissions by three times the present value. Two million jobs will also be
created globally in the process. The current global capacity for wind energy is about 318
gigawatts which accounts for about 3 % o total energy produced (Ćosić, 2012)
Figure 10. The expected scenario of wind energy in 2050

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Wind power generation is expected to rise partly due to a projected gradual increase I
wind turbine diameter as shown in the figure below. With more research being conducted in this
region, turbines are expected to have an average diameter of about 124 meters compared to the
current diameter of about 80 meters. Taller turbines and larger turbine diameter will have higher
generation capacities (Ćosić, 2012)
.
Figure 11. Turbine heights and diameters between 1980 and 2005
However, for all these projections to be realized, further innovations in this sector and
improvements on the existing systems need to be made. In view of the progress being made
annually towards this end, wind energy could reach and even surpass its projected potential.
ROLE OF ENERGY STORAGE AND THE PROGRESS DONE IN THIS SECTOR
Energy storage can be defined as the process that involves the conversion of energy from one
form to an economically storable form for the purpose of creating a reserve. Energy storage is
important since it serves the following purpose (Dell, 2001):
1. It helps reserve energy for use during periods of peak demand.
2. It makes it possible to practice energy management at varying periods.
3. It also helps in making renewable sources a continuous source.

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4. It increases energy reliability
5. Remote and vehicle energy needs can easily be met.
6. Energy storage presents a smart solution in the realization of a smart grid.
7. It reduces energy importation costs during periods of peak demand.
8. It is an important tool in power generation management in both standby and distributed
systems.
Today and in the next foreseeable future, 99 % of surpluses in electricity generation are stored
using the pumped hydroelectricity storage method. In this method, water is pumped from low
elevation reservoirs to a highly elevated reservoir henceforth gaining potential energy. During
periods of peak demand, the water is released and its kinetic energy converted to electricity. This
method, however, has an average efficiency of 75 % since it utilizes energy produced during off-
peak demand hours of the power plant.
Figure 12. Pumped storage plant
Other methods used in energy storage include the use of batteries, compressed air storage
systems. Advanced systems of pumped hydroelectricity storage are being developed along with
hydrogen storage systems, thermal storage systems, supercapacitors, and advanced batteries.
THE ENERGY SCENARIO IN 2050 (PERSONAL OPINION)
The worlds by 2050 will have successfully been integrated into a clean energy producing arena if
current progress is anything to go by. Non-renewable sources will either be depleted or

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approaching the brink of depletion. Therefore, the need for the paradigm change in energy
production is warranted. Carbon emissions will subsequently go down and the global warming
target of below 2 degrees Celsius will be achieved.
CONCLUSION
The demand for electricity is expected to increase worldwide and this calls for a need to
increase the total energy produced globally. Developing nations will experience the most growth
especially in electricity consumption and energy shortages are to be anticipated and prepared for.
National governments worldwide need to invest more resources into clean energy production
systems and in research as well.