A Thesis on the Effects of ENSO on Cereal Production in South Africa

This thesis investigates the impact of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on cereal production in South Africa. The introduction highlights ENSO's influence on global climate and its effects on agriculture, particularly crop yields. The literature review covers ENSO, the Antarctic Oscillation, and their impacts on South African climate, rainfall, and cereal production, including food security implications. The methodology employs panel econometrics to analyze the relationship between ENSO and cereal production, specifically focusing on maize. The results section presents the findings regarding ENSO's impact on maize production. The study emphasizes the importance of understanding climate variability for economic policy and strategies to mitigate climate-related risks. The thesis also discusses the impacts of El Nino on drought in South Africa, the Antarctic Oscillation and its effects on rainfall, and the global implications of ENSO on agriculture and food production.

Thesis
(El Nino Southern oscillation impact on Cereal
Production in South Africa)

Table of Contents
THESIS STATEMENT ..................................................................................................................1
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................1
2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW ......................................................................................................9
2.1 El-Nino Southern Oscillation & Antarctic Oscillation. .......................................................9
2.2 ENSO impact on South African climate and rainfall..........................................................13
2.3 ENSO impact on Cereal production in South Africa..........................................................18
2.4 Relationship between ENSO and food security..................................................................25
3.0 DATA AND METHODS ......................................................................................................26
3.1 Panel Econometrics.............................................................................................................26
3.2 The Econometric Model: .................................................................................................26
4.0 Results......................................................................................................................................30
4.1 ENSO impact on Maize......................................................................................................30
REFERENCES .............................................................................................................................33

THESIS STATEMENT
El Nino Southern oscillation impact on Cereal Production in South Africa.
INTRODUCTION
El Nino- Southern Oscillation is considered as an irregular periodic variation in sea and
winds surface temperature over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, which significantly affecting
climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The heating stage of the sea temperature is called
as El Nino and the cooling phase known as La Nina. The southern Oscillation is refers as the
atmospheric element of a single wide scale coupled interaction known as the Ei Nino Southern
Oscillation (ENSO). In the recent scenario the phases of climate change and anomalous
condition have become a major global concern. Within a large scale of various possible
consequences of climate anomalies, within the time duration of one-year variability of
agriculture crop production, hence crop yield, is significantly remarkable, as it is directly
impacted through weather conditions in all environments. This cause through the intrinsic
influence of weather on the plant generative and vegetative growth period. Agriculture is consist
to be the essential sector of economy which helps in providing various benefits to the economy.
Climatic factor has a direct influence on economic performance is commonsensical at various
level of production supply, marketing, economic growth, health and social unrest. There is an
effective relationship arises among the different effect of climate and crops production and prices
of different food products. As per the activity of agriculture and decision making it is required
for agriculture department to consider all information regarding climate factors as to building
effective temporary economic policy. Some effective strategies are there which are significant to
cope with variability risk of climate such as storage facilities, crop insurance, tax, cropping
pattern variation and subsidies policies. Southern Oscillation is an effective atmospheric
component, in oceanography and climatology a consistent inter-annual fluctuation of
atmospheric forces over the tropical Indo-Pacific region. The element of the Southern Oscillation
at a described point in time may be understood through applying the Southern Oscillation Index,
which helps in determining the difference in atmospheric pressure around Australia and
Indonesia with that of the east-central South Pacific.
El Nino Southern Oscillation:
El Nino is considered as a periodic weather pattern which is caused through a fluctuation
in sea surface temperature across the equatorial pacific Ocean. The heat water changes the
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superimposed the atmosphere which affects the weather conditions in different parts of the
globe. El Nino situations are presently available but are likely to abate during late northern
hemisphere spring on early summer in 2016. Mainly different regions are facing negative
influence of El Nino and also experiencing decreasing rainfall, which may postponement of
planting, affects crop maturation or cut down the viability of pasture lands. Thus, the impact of
El Nino alter substantially and some regions may experience weather which is significantly more
appropriator through for the production of agriculture. However the agriculture effects of El
Nino is significantly related to the shocks which are based on the timing, a particular duration
and strength of the El Nino. The welfare of economic is also based on the domestic food, safety
and trade policies of essential importer and exporter. Impermanent production setbacks by
previous years El Nino event are arising in regards of positive long term trends in the world food
production. Worldwide trend in cereals production have represents sustained growth and over the
last few years have led to a development of global food reserves. The total cereal production is
proposed to be around 1.3 percent which is lower than the last few years, it is still 2.2 percent
which is more than the average of previous three years and the short-well of this particular year
is covered by stocks. Thus the negative localized affect over the globe could be important in the
absence of the market linkage and trade openness.
The impact of El Nino in drought in South Africa
The El Nino element is one of the essential element which arising drought in South
Africa. In any situation El Nino available in the pacific Ocean, rainfall is mainly limited during
the season of summer whereas the normal rainfall needs to be anticipated during winter and
spring. The keeping up and forecast of atmosphere instigated varieties in Harvest yields, creation
and fare costs in real nourishment delivering districts, it has turned out to be dynamically
fundamental to empower national government in import-subordinate nations to guarantee
supplies of moderate sustenance for purchasers, in which individuals from bring down pay are
included. The high dependability of seasonal El Nino southern Oscillation forecasts the
interconnection between global yield with ENSO phase has a significant advantages to food
handling and calamity early warning systems. The El Nino Southern Oscillation is consist as the
most essential coupled ocean atmosphere element to cause world's climate variability on
interlingual period of time. However the phenomenon is connected to the quasi-periodic
redistribution of heat around tropical pacific. ENSO is divided through a varying shift among a
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neutral phase and two extreme element such as El Nino and La Nina. The El Nino component is
shows through a deep layer of warm ocean water around the east-central equatorial pacific, with
sea surface temperature generally 1.5 to 2.0 degree average. On the other side La Nina is consist
as a interlinked condition are opposed to the phase of El Nino: a wide layer of cooler than
average ocean temperature around the east central equatorial pacific through sea-surface
environment generally 1.0 to 2.0 degree which is below the average. ENSO is considered as a
strong phenomenon of inter-annual climate variability in different countries in Africa, Asia and
in North and South America. In the time duration of El Nino connected cliamte anomalies are
known as interconnections are felt on the far side of the pacific region involving regional land
and sea surface warming, changes in storm, attacks and changes in precipitation patterns. El
Nino is also a local warming of surface water which takes place in the entire circle zone of the
central and eastern Pacific ocean of the Peruvian coast and which impacted the atmosphere
circulation at a global level. It also consist as a recurrent weather component which takes place
approximately each two to seven years and usually last among 12 to 18 months. It basically
peaks across Christmas, hence the name of the component El Nino is Spanish for Christ a small
boy. La Nina defines to the cold equivalent of El Nino the girl child.
The Antarctic Oscillation
The report contents the study about various elements which all are connected with the
term of El Nino Southern Oscillation. The Antarctic Oscillation, Southern Annular or high
latitude mode is the dominant pattern of tropospheric circulation variability south of 20 degree
and is divided by the pressure anomalies of one sign centred in the Antarctic and anomalies of
the opposite sign centred around 40 to 50 degree. The western, coastal region of south Africa
acquire most of its rainfall during the austral winter. On the other part of of subtropical Southern
Africa are consistently defined through summer rainfall. Despite the value of the winter rainfall
to the local economy and its pronounced inter-annual variability, reliability little investigation on
the climate of the region has been conducted. Most of the winter rainfall is created through cold
fronts and associated extra-tropical cyclones, but other prevailing westerly activity like as cut of
lows, may on occasion also create essential rainfall over the region. The another area of this
particular research is based on the impact of ENSO on South African climate and rainfall , this
also consist as a vast concept, south Africa receives most of its rainfall in Austral summer which
is expected through a valid and reliable region in the South west which experiences austral
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winter rainfall. It is an essential term as rainfall maxima are recorded through the month of may
to August, in this duration the track of the temperate weather system is going to shifted
northward. The southwester region is encompasses part of western and Northern Cape Provinces
is vast in the easy through the cold Benguela upwelling system and to the south, at a distance
from the warm Agulhas Current. Orography performs an essential role in the Cape folded
Mountains that stretch northward to the west and east-west to the south favour. A plethora of
studies suggest that in the course of the ongoing climate change, catastrophic weather events are
more likely. In turn, extreme weather conditions in many parts of the world are associated with a
medium–frequency1 climate anomaly known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or simply ENSO.
“The most dramatic, most energetic, and best defined pattern of inter-annual variability is the
global set of climatic anomalies referred to as 1 i.e., cyclical behaviour that repeats itself every
several years. 2 (El Niño and the Southern Oscillation) ENSO”. There is a successful relationship
emerges among the diverse impact of atmosphere and harvests creation and costs of various
nourishment items. According to the movement of horticulture and basic leadership it is required
for agribusiness division to consider all data seeing atmosphere factors as to building viable
transitory monetary strategy. Some powerful methodologies are there which are huge to adapt to
fluctuation danger of atmosphere, for example, storerooms, trim protection, assess, editing
design variety and appropriations arrangements. Southern Wavering is a viable air part, in
oceanography and climatology a reliable between yearly change of environmental powers over
the tropical Indo-Pacific district. The component of the Southern Swaying at a depicted point in
time might be comprehended through applying the Southern Wavering File, which helps in
deciding the distinction in climatic weight around Australia and Indonesia with that of the east-
focal South Pacific.
El Nino Southern Oscillation and the crops production in South Africa
The southern Africa is probable to be an essentially influenced through the change
which will be arises in the future climate with the significant atmosphere change projection for
the region which indicates the temperature as well as evapotranspiration are supposed to develop
in the 21st century. Food is consist to be the fundamental need of individual and people work as
to satisfying their needs and wants through consuming goods and services as per their
preference. Climate has a huge impact on the crops and yields. The measure of production has
go very crucial and mandate for the federal government to defend the farmers and the agriculture
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community by the risk of weather and helps to design some plans and policies which are related
to the security of food. Even though the prediction accuracy of various forecast models has
developed in the recent period of time. It consist as a big challenge to based on a n individual
model provide its incertitude and its crucial nature including various global and regional weather
oscillation system. Africa is the most developing country and focused on increasing its
economical condition through attaining higher growth and success. It is essential for each
country to maintain appropriate flow of crops as to developing the living standard of people
within the country. There is not any significant relationship among the El Nino Southern
Oscillation and the crops production but it is mainly trouble the seasonal rainfall, which is an
essential parameter that affects the crop yield as a out come. Fluctuation in climate is likely to
alter the magnitude, timing and distribution of storms which create flood events and the intensity
and frequency of drought situations. Africa has existing critical vulnerabilities which may
exasperate the impact of likely the weather change in most sector in regards to the significant
dependence on the natural environment for better living, food and other important factors. It is
essential for each individual to have an appropriate understanding about the conditions of climate
changes and their possible influence on the culture and society . However it is important in the
crucial sector in southern Africa as to develop strategic adaptation consequence. The present
research work will discuss about the impact on El Nino by applying panel econometrics on the
effective cereal crops and quantify its effect in various provinces of the South Africa which
would provide advantage to the policy makers as to create the mitigation plan and insurers and
re-insurers to outspread its risk and bad consequences adequately over a country.
Reason for choosing the topic:
The research into consideration is based on El Nino Southern oscillation impact on
Cereal Production in South Africa. The specified area of study helps the learner in developing
their skills and knowledge in the area of climate and the impact of climate change on the growth
of agriculture department. The major reason behind choosing the topic is that is consist to be a
serious issue of which has a huge influence on the agriculture. Food is consist to be the essential
key element of climate. A year of not enough or too much rainfall, a hot spell or cold catch in a
wrong time period, or high range of flooding and storms can have an appropriate impact on local
crop yields and placental mammal production. Agriculture is one of the major sector at the core
of economic development. Underpinning food systems, agriculture activities constitute an
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indispensable pillar of sustainable growth and development. This is considerably true in the case
of south Africa where as the social, economic and environmental opportunities of potential
agriculture are yet to be fully victimized or exploited. Over the last few decades, agriculture has
been considered as the drastic economic and social development in the country. The change in
climate has a direct influence on the environment, social and economic condition of agriculture.
As per the data of world bank carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emergence is now about 60
percent which is considerably higher than the level of 1990's and its rapidly increasing about 2.5
percent per year and it cause various issues which has direct of indirect influence on the living of
people. The major reason of rising the level of CO2e emission is the rapid growth which arises in
population as the high growth in population cause negative impact on the economic growth and
success. It is essential for intergovernmental panel on climate change to manage worlds
population as it impacts on increasing temperature from 3.7 °C to 4.8 °C and climate change
cause a huge threat to South Africa's water sources, food security, health, ecosystem services,
biodiversity and infrastructure. The agriculture in South Africa experiences various kind of risk
which are associated through change arises in climate such as rainfall patters, higher
temperature, increased evaporation rates, developing pests and diseases and changes in diseases
and pest distribution ranges, decreasing yield and spatial shift in optimum developing regions.
The emission of these kind of risks calls for imperative, aspiring action needs to be taken by
government as to ensure the elasticity of South Africa’s agricultural sector by adaptation to
climate change impacts. Global warming has become one of the major challenge in respect to
handling the global food security. The present research reviews the influence of the climate
change on food, crops and its production on sub-Saharan African Countries. An appropriate
knowledge about these studies are effective for economic growth of countries. The specified area
of study provides a brief description about the impact of El Nino Southern Oscillation which
consist to be a major issue of economy.
Research Aim
This consist to be an effective part of research work as this section helps the researcher in
providing an effective direction as to implementing all research activities into well planned and
effective manner. The significant aim of this research is to analysing the issue of research in
appropriate manner in order to overcome with the issue in effective way. It can be described in
the form of small statement in which the issue of research is mentioned and it provides a clear
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vision to the investigator to moving forward towards right direction. The major aim of this
research is “El Nino Southern oscillation impact on Cereal Production in South Africa”.
Research Objectives:
This comprise to be the best piece of research project which depends on the exploration
issue. The research targets are shaped in light of point worked for the examination. They are
significant in imparting development for the investigation lastly satisfying in get-together right
data for the examination inciting structure right conclusions. The investigation shaped should
neither too wide or kept so satisfactory data is amassed through setting up of right targets. The
present research is based on the influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation on the cereal
production in South Africa. This consist to be a major issue in as it has a huge impact on the
growth and development of the economy. Although climate change determined as a global issue
and it is essential for each individual to having appropriate knowledge and skills in the area of
climate and its benefits for living. The essential objectives of this particular research are
described as below:
 El-Nino Southern Oscillation & Antarctic Oscillation.
 ENSO impact on South African climate and rainfall.
 ENSO impact on Cereal production in South Africa.
 Relationship between ENSO and food security.
Research Questions:
A thesis statement is determined as the major element in academic writing as this
provides an appropriate direction to the research activities as to analysing the issue in effective
manner. A research question takes the investigator beyond some simple facts on a specifies area
of study, it also considered as an inquiry on some particular issue or problem. This part of
research work is interlinked with the objectives as these are significantly based on the
predetermined objectives of a research work. Some essential questions of this particular research
project are described as below:
 What is El-Nino Southern Oscillation & Antarctic Oscillation?
 How ENSO impacted on South African climate and rainfall?
 Which kind of impact ENSO has on the Cereal production in South Africa?
 What is the Relationship between ENSO and food security?
https://www.tips.org.za/images/WWF_PFU_Policy_brief.pdf
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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/sep/19/climate-change-affect-food-production
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/fes3.61
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2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW
It refers to as basic review of the research work, which is having a level of assessment of
research. It is considered in as succinct and outline for having a particular research, which enable
social event data as for what reason to translate a specific research. This can be settled as the best
piece of research venture which empowers the master in directing a from beginning to end
research to meander as to drawing a successful research result for the predefined zone of study. It
is the most central piece of the examination wind. The specialist gathering information and data
by various sources and use them as to finish of research work in compelling way. In this area of
research information must be accumulated through optional sources as it is successful in
managing arithmetical system by investigating the supposition of different writers and authors.
This part of research is effective in creating an appropriate theoretical framework which create
value for researcher to analyse all the phases of research work in appropriate manner. Theoretical
base is effective in providing a brief discussion about the specified area of study and provide a
clear vision to the investigator to draw a valid and reliable outcome for the research work. The
present research is based on the El Nino Southern oscillation impact on Cereal Production in
South Africa. This consist to be a wide area of study and in this type of research study it is
essential for researcher to conduct a brief theoretical discussion as to developing their level of
understanding in regards to a specified area of study.
2.1 El-Nino Southern Oscillation & Antarctic Oscillation.
The El Nino Southern Oscillation is a periodic shift of the ocean atmosphere system in
the tropical pacific which influences the weather over the globe. It is mainly connected with
floods, droughts and other global activities. At the time of normal weather or in the duration of
non El Nino, the trade winds blow by west crosswise the ocean. Such type of winds pile up
warm surface water in the west pacific, so that the surface of ocean is all about the one half meter
higher across Indonesia that over Ecuador. Ocean upwelling arises off the coasts of Peru and
Ecuador bringing nutrient rich cold water to the aboveground and developing fishing stocks.
The western side of the pan-tropical pacific is dividing among various elements such as warm,
wet, low pressure weather in respect to gather moisture is dumped in the form of cyclone and
violent storms.
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(Source: El Nino Southern Oscillation, 2018)
The above given digram represents a model of surface temperature, winds areas of
increasing airs and the blue surface(Thermocline) in the tropical pacific in the duration of El
Nino, normal and La Nina situation. As per the view expressed by Dr. Michael J. Mcphaden,
2018, While the activities of ENSO event, there is an effective growth arises in air pressure
around the Indian Ocean, Indonesia and Australia and a decreasing level in air pressure around
Tahiti and the rest of the central and warm water spreads eastward through the west Pacific and
Indian Ocean to the east pacific. The trade winds in the south Pacific weaken or head east and
warm water dispersed eastward through the west Ocean and Indian Ocean to the east Pacific.
This assist to the extensive drought in the western Pacific and rainfall in the normally dry eastern
Ocean. El Nino is divided through usually warm ocean temperature among the central to eastern
Equatorial Pacific, on the other side La Nina is divided through unusually cold ocean
temperatures in this region, but cordial waters in the western pacific. In many years, the warming
weather nature lasts only a short period of time, after that the patterns of weather return to
normal and in this timing fishing develops. Thus the condition of El Nino last for may months in
this more extensive ocean warming occurs and its economic influence on local fishing for an
international market which create value in development of economic condition.
El Nino southern Oscillation consequences are considered as a natural process and it have
been presented for thousands of years. This type of events are not arises through change arises in
climate but these are arises through the effective interaction among the surface layers of the
ocean and the overlying atmosphere in the tropical ocean. Thus it is significantly possible that
the causes of global warming will change the pattern on El Nino cycle reacts. Furthermore some
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Illustration 1: El Nino Southern Oscillation, 2018