Epidemiology Assignment: Public Health Risk Assessment and Analysis

This epidemiology assignment presents a comprehensive analysis of public health risks, focusing on cholera and tuberculosis outbreaks. The first part of the assignment is a synopsis of a case-control study conducted in Cameroon to assess the risk factors associated with a cholera epidemic, including socioeconomic factors, hygiene, and access to clean food and water. The second part involves calculating and interpreting epidemiological measures such as prevalence, incidence rate, and odds ratio using provided data. The assignment explores various health scenarios, including tuberculosis, breast cancer, cardiovascular mortality, and diabetes. It emphasizes the importance of data analysis, risk assessment, and understanding the implications of epidemiological findings for community health planning and intervention strategies. The assignment also highlights the significance of confidence intervals in assessing the reliability of research findings and the need for follow-up studies to monitor disease trends and treatment effectiveness. The analysis underscores the importance of addressing public health challenges through a combination of data-driven insights and practical recommendations.

Running head: EPIDEMEOLOGY 1
Forensics Research
Student’s Name
Date of Submission

EPIDEMEOLOGY 2
Part 1
Synopsis
This epidemiological study involves the assessment of the risk factors of cholera epidemics in
Buea district in Nigeria (Nsagha et al., 2015). This was following a previous cholera outbreak in
Cameroon in the year 2010. Following a period of cholera free, other new cases emerged in
2011, where many people were affected necessitating this risk assessment study. Moreover, the
cholera outbreak killed 843 people, with 23,152 being affected in Cameroon. A case control
study was done with cases being identifies in the hospital records and controls being the people
neighboring the cases. A questionnaire was administered to collect data on socioeconomic status,
hygiene, food availability and water. Data was analyzed using STATA software at a significance
level of p<0.05. the results indicate that poor food and water preservation and handling was
highly associated with the risk of cholera.
Challenges
During the collection of the data, there was no method used to test whether the responses given
by the study participants was reliable or not. It was also abit challenging to identify and collect
the unmatched controls from the same community in Buea because they were mixed up with the
cases. Moreover, since this risk assessment was carried out immediately after a cholera outbreak,
there was a high possibility that the messages that the Ministry of Health had shared with the
communities on prevention strategies might have affected the responses given in this assessment.
Measures of risk reduction
Socioeconomic status, level of education, accessibility to clean food and lack of clean drinking
water.
Risk avoidance recommendations
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EPIDEMEOLOGY 3
Need for accessibility to latrines in the community, pursue of education to understand the
importance of hygiene, adopting safe food storage methods and access to portable water.
Part 2
a. Prevalence of TB by end of 2009=
Initial + new TB cases in 2009= 50+10= 60
Initial population=50,000-500deaths=49,500
Deaths in 2009= 700
Population at the end of 2009=49,500-700=48,800
Prevalence of TB= 60/48,800
= 0.0012
=0.12%
b. incidence rate= new cases divided by total population in 2009
new cases of breast cancer= 5
total population in 2009= 49,500-700=48,800
subtract the initially breast cancer infected patients
so, 48,800-200= 48,600
incidence rate = 5/48,600
=0.00010
=0.010%
c. cardiovascular mortality rate= 89/1,000= 0.089
=0.089*100= 8.9%
d. prevalence of diabetes in 2009
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EPIDEMEOLOGY 4
2000+100= 2,100 cases divided by total population
=2100/49,500= 0.042
=4.20%
e. 100/2000*100=
0.05/100= 5%
f. generally, the findings of this data indicate that the health of this community is deteriorating
because there are so many deaths which have been recorded within a span of one year (Calhoun
et al., 2014). Therefore, there is a need to carry out a risk assessment to community so as to curb
new infections and fix the existing functions. This data indicates that tuberculosis and diabetes
are a great threat to this population because their incidence is quite high.
2. smoking
a. relative risk
200 divided by 150,000 / 100 divided by 150,000
0.0013/ 0.00066
=1.97
3. gastroenteritis
5/ 100
0.05*100
= 5%
4. prevalence by October 30th
5+3=8 divided by 100
0.08*100= 8%
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EPIDEMEOLOGY 5
b. odds ratio
cases ratio= 90/ 410= 0.22
control ratio= 50/950= 0.053
odds ratio= case ratio divided by control ratio
=0.22 / 0.053
=4.15
This odds ratio clearly indicates that the exposure to hormones during pregnancy increases the
odds or risks of developing testicular cancer as compared to those who are not exposed.
c.the 95% confidence interval of between 0.8 to 5.5 indicates the reliability of this research is not
high because there is a wide variety of identifying cases and controls. This means that even little
exposure to concentration of the hormone predisposes one to the development of cancer of the
testicles. The confidence interval is very important because it shows the range within which the
results obtained can be said to be within the acceptable ranges. The range of figures contained in
a confidence interval are likely to have the values for the unknown parameter in a research or
assessment (Cumming, 2012).
Summary
by answering various epidemiological questions involving case studies, epidemiologists and
students are able to learn how clinical data is collected, recorded and analyzed. The
figures are expressed in ration form for the ease of interpretations and assessment of the
associated risks (Vandenbroucke et al., 2014). For instance, the prevalence, risk ratio and
incidence rate have been frequently explored. The results presented in for of these ratios
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EPIDEMEOLOGY 6
are important because they can also be used for community planning processes. The need
for making follow up studies has been emphasized so that the disease can be monitored
closely, to determine whether the available treatment options are effective or not.
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EPIDEMEOLOGY 7
References
Calhoun, D. A., Booth III, J. N., Oparil, S., Irvin, M. R., Shimbo, D., Lackland, D. T., &
Muntner, P. (2014). Refractory Hypertension: Determination of Prevalence, Risk Factors
and Comorbidities in a Large, Population-Based Cohort. Hypertension, 63(3), 451.
Cumming, G. (2013). Understanding the new statistics: Effect sizes, confidence intervals, and
meta-analysis. Routledge.
Nsagha, D. S., Atashili, J., Fon, P. N., Tanue, E. A., Ayima, C. W., & Kibu, O. D. (2015).
Assessing the risk factors of cholera epidemic in the Buea Health District of Cameroon.
BMC public health, 15(1), 1128.
Vandenbroucke, J. P., von Elm, E., Altman, D. G., Gøtzsche, P. C., Mulrow, C. D., Pocock, S. J.,
& STROBE Initiative. (2014). Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in
Epidemiology (STROBE): explanation and elaboration. International journal of surgery,
12(12), 1500-1524.
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