Analysis of the Conflict: Ethiopia, Egypt, and the Nile River's Future

This report provides an analytical framework for understanding the complex relationship between Ethiopia and Egypt concerning the Nile River, particularly focusing on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project and its impact on Egypt. It reviews historical agreements regarding Nile water allocation, including the 1929 and 1959 treaties, and assesses the implications of the GERD on Egypt's water supply, given its heavy reliance on the Nile. The report highlights the conflicting interests and the need for a resolution that considers both Ethiopia's development needs and Egypt's water security. It concludes with recommendations for resolving the conflict, including financial cost-sharing, electricity purchase agreements, the formation of a joint technical committee, increased trade relations, and investments in renewable energy alternatives. The report emphasizes the importance of sustainable methods to ensure sufficient flow releases from the GERD to not compromise downstream flow and impact Egypt's dependency on the Nile river water.

CONFLICT BETWEEN ETHIOPIA AND EGYPT
REGARDING THE RENAISSANCE DAM AND ITS
EFFECTS ON EGYPT PROPORTION OF NILE
RIVER

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Nile river is the longest river throughout the world as it is referred as father of
African rivers. It increases south of Equator and flows northward via north-eastern Africa for
draining in Mediterranean Sea with length of 4132 miles. Simultaneously, it drains an area
estimated at 1293000 square miles. The present report is all about relationship among Ethiopia
and Egypt on basis of Nile river. Its main objective is to offer analytical framework for
unpacking complex relationship along with assessing impact of Nile river with context of nature
of this relationship. It comprises agreements regarding Nile river water and Ethiopian
renaissance Dam project. Furthermore, for resolving conflict, it had been recommended that
financial cost of building Grand Renascence dam must be shared and existing balance among
increased wind and solar electricity and hydro generation in regional grids.

TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.............................................................................................................1
BACKGROUND.............................................................................................................................1
Agreements regarding Nile river water.......................................................................................1
Ethiopian renaissance Dam project.............................................................................................2
CONCLUSION................................................................................................................................3
RECOMMENDATION...................................................................................................................3
REFERENCES................................................................................................................................4

BACKGROUND
The longest river in the world is of 6695 Km as its total length along with tributaries is
37205 km2 and catchment area is about 2.9 million km2. It is shared in ten countries which is
Ethopia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Burundi, Egypt, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Uganda,
Eritrrea and Tanzania with total population is about 280 million (Nile River, 2019). Nile river
rises to south of equator and it flows northward through north eastern Africa for draining into
Meditarranean sea. This river is replicated as very important water source in North Africa and in
its basin, 40'% of population resides here. There is presence of two tributaries which is White
and Blue Nile. The White Nile is rising in great lakes Region of central Africa which is longer of
two as it flows through Lake Victoria, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda. With the aggregation,
Ethiopoan headquarters give 86% of Nile rivers water. In the same series, Blue Nile is originated
through lake of Ethiopia as Tana and flowing in Sudan from South east (Tesfa, 2013). Thus,
these two major tributaries meet attain Sudanese capital of Khartoum and it flows in North by
Egypt and in Mediterranean Sea. The water availability through Nile is combined with high
temperature of area and forms possible intensive cultivation with its banks. This is very
important waterway for transport especially when water transport is not feasible.
Agreements regarding Nile river water
There was allocation of 48bnm3 of by 1929 Nile water agreement to Cairo and offering 4
bnm3 to Sudan. The Nile treaty was revised with increment in share of Egypt to 55.5 bnm3 and
18.5 bnm3 of Sudan. In year 1929, primary Nile treaty was completed as Britain ratifies bilateral
treaty with Egypt on basis of African holdings which is specific in Eastern African countries and
Sudan as well. It has outlined two other requirements, it set quotas with amount of water Sudan
could undertake by Nile as prior it flowed directly in Egypt (Nile River, 2019). In the similar
aspect, it passed to Egypt veta rights with context to any upstream project along with alteration
in flow of Nile as these two measures form substantive material of treaty with reference to
relative stability of provisions afforded Egypt as heart of concern which provides description
about water security. This issue is considered as core of contentious debate over rights and
security of water in particular region (Obengo, 2016). The treaty of 1959 has not set aside
through larger water allocation with context of other basin countries as they were not treaty
parties along with consideration of economic and environmental interests. In addition to this, this
1959 treaty had guaranteed 55.5 bcm of water for Egypt and Sudan with 18.5 bcm (VerHoeVen,
2012). This treaty has stated that Sudan and Egypt must agree on position related to water rights
which is extended to other basin countries. On basis of attaining this water amount in Nile river
as plan was established by this treaty for these two countries for beginning project development.
It is highly significant for tracing amount of water has been allocated with treaty to every
country is set as minimum quantity, not as specific percentage of yearly flow fluctuating or
division of shared benefits through utilization of water (Energy constraint, 2013). In simple
words, it signifies plans Sudan and Egypt had formed hydroelectric or irrigation generation
would be highly secure as compared to other countries who could extract themselves for being
forced to pass with various flow with context territory during low precipitation as it also includes
drought. The biased allocation of water of Nile had assumed that upstream countries does not use
any water (McKenzie, 2012). As per this treaty, there is suggestion that upstream countries have
voiced undefined and nebulous claim for sharing water of Nile as it does not grant any particular
rights or offering clear avenue to enforce along with appeal of these claims (Benefits of Grand
Ethipian Renaissance dam project, 2018). In nutshell, this treaty has stated that Sudan and Egypt
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should agree on a position on basis of water rights which are not extended to any other basin
countries.
In year 1929, there was presence of exchange of notes among Great Britain and Egypt on
Nile water with application of purpose of irrigation. The agreement was signed by Great Britain
on behalf of colonies in Sudan and Africa (Egypt's Choice: From the Nile Basin Treaty to the
Cooperative Framework Agreement, an International Legal Analysis, 2019). The 1929
agreement has granted Egypt water rights over Nile along with other countries has not permitted
unilaterally for initiating projects of water infrastructure which decrease the water quantity of
Nile, water level or date of water arrival with absence of prior permission by Egypt. In year
1959, there was bilateral agreement by Egypt and Sudan for dividing 84 billion cubic meters of
Nile waters. As per agreement of 1959, Nile waters were categorised as 55.5 billion cubic meters
to Egypt, 10 billion cubic meters on account of seepage and evaporation and 18.5 billion cubic
metres to Sudan. In the same series, it provides any increment in Nile water flow is categorised
on equal aspect among these two states.
The Ethiopia and Tanzania, Kenya have stated consistently about agreements of Nile
water for not binding themselves. On the contrary, other riparian states have performed
ambivalent actions which contradict position held through Ethiopia and Tanzania. There was
particular provision obliged these states for not being adversely impact to water security along
with recent rights and uses of other Nile basin state. These Basin states failed for agreeing on
notification concept which was proposed through Sudan and Egypt (Tesfa, 2013). However, in
year 2002 water development's Kenyan Minister has reflected that Kenya is directly bound from
1929 agreement. With context of these arguments, Egypt has presence of consent of innovative
method of allocation of Nile river water with successor state of 1929 and 1959 agreements. After
negotiations of 10 years in year 2009, there was disintegration of consensus based process as it
was because of three major reasons (VerHoeVen, 2012). First was absence of consensus where
Nile water resources must be jointly managed in such aspect which sustains and ensures water
security. The Ethiopia has to replace treaty of 1929 which is written by Britain was awarded
through Egypt veto power over any project engaged in Nile through upstream countries. At last
in may 2010, the upstream countries Kenya, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Uganda signed the
agreement of cooperative framework agreement and joined by Burundi (Egypt, Ethiopia and
Sudan sign deal to end Nile dispute, 2019).
Ethiopian renaissance Dam project
The Ethiopia is endowed with abundant water resources along with enormous
hydropower potential. As 23% of households have direct access for electricity along with
population 96% are highly relying on traditional biomass with context of cooking and access to
energy is constrained (Sawin, 2013). This energy constraint is directly exacerbated with
increment in demand driven through raise on economic growth. Thus, for accomplishing the
increment in demand of electricity where Ethiopia has decided for building Grand Renaissance
dam which is situated in Benshangul Gumuz regional state (Egypt's Choice: From the Nile Basin
Treaty to the Cooperative Framework Agreement, an International Legal Analysis, 2019). This
work was initiated on 2nd April 2011. With work completion of work on project, it should have
capacity installed of 6450MW with sum of 16 units with capacity of generation about 400MW
each. The Nile offers 96% of renewable freshwater of Egypt and 98% was host through Nile
valley of 85 million people (Nile River, 2019).
Simultaneously, it had been stated that Egypt is heavily dependent on Nile as is highly
concerned by the outcome of Dam project which is diverting waters through Blue Nile which
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will ordinary flow within Nile (Kahsay and et.al., 2015). This reservoir is linked with dam
project leads to evaporation of volume of Blue Nile water (Hydropolitics of the Nile: The case of
Ethiopia and Egypt, 2016).
CONCLUSION
From the above report it had been concluded that dam is mandatory for purpose of
development and sought for reassuring Egypt. It had shown that Nile offers over 90% of water
supply of Egypt. Thus, it had shown about consent of new method of allocation of Nile river
water in agreement of 1929 and 1959 agreements bind successor states. Furthermore, upper
provisions of first notification has strengthened status quo and impasse persisted where upper
riparians has stopped consensus based process. Henceforth, in May 2010, upstream countries in
opposition to Sudan and Egypt has insisted equitable utilisation of waters instead of historical
user right so signifiant to Khartoum and Cairo. At last, Egypt was dependent on Nile \and
showed huge concern about outcome as diverting waters.
RECOMMENDATION
 The Egypt and Ethiopia must share financial cost of building Grand Renascence dam and
in such aspect, joint ownership of project would create common ground among two
countries (Tesfa, 2013).
 Electricity should be purchased through Ethiopia as mutual interest and incentive.
 The joint Ethiopian and Egyptian technical committee through different fields,
environment, engineering, social to be formed for undertaking analysis on impacts of
renaissance dam on Egypt (Abadir M. Ibrahim, 2011).
 There must be increment in trade relations, especially with virtual trade imports in crops
and livestocks through Sudan and Ethiopia to Egypt along with Egyptian investments in
agricultural sectors in two major upstream countries proposed (Egypt's Choice: From the
Nile Basin Treaty to the Cooperative Framework Agreement, an International Legal
Analysis, 2019).
 Furthermore, Egypt must support Ethiopia for purpose of investment in renewable
alternatives to hydro power energy convinced and gathered international investors and
organizations for investing in field in Ethiopia (Ibrahim, 2010).
 There should be existing balance among increased wind and solar electricity and hydro
generation in regional grids as it might decrease risk of inter-annual and variation of
climate driven of availability of hydro-power resource (VerHoeVen, 2012).
 Ethiopia with its neighbour Egypt and Sudan along with sustainable methods to ensure
about flow releases through GERD (Great Ethopian Renaissance Dam) and sufficient
enough for not compromising downstream flow and does not impact dependency of
Egypt on Nile river water (Obengo, 2016).
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REFERENCES
Books and Journals
Abadir M. Ibrahim, 2011. The Nile Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement: The Beginning
of the End of Egyptian Hydro-Political Hegemony, 18 Mo. Envtl. L. & Pol'y Rev. 282.
Ibrahim, A. M., 2010. The Nile Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement: The beginning of the
end of Egyptian hydro-political hegemony. Mo. Envtl. L. & Pol'y Rev. 18. p.282.
Kahsay, T. N. and et.al., 2015. Estimation of the transboundary economic impacts of the Grand
Ethiopia Renaissance Dam: A computable general equilibrium analysis. Water Resources
and Economics. 10. pp.14-30.
McKenzie, S .O., 2012. Egypt's choice: from the Nile Basin treaty to the Cooperative
Framework Agreement, an international legal analysis. Transnat'l L. & Contemp.
Probs. 21. p.571.
Obengo, J. O., 2016. Hydropolitics of the Nile: The case of Ethiopia and Egypt. African Security
Review. 25(1). pp.95-103.
Onencan, A. and Van de Walle, B., 2018. Equitable and reasonable utilization: Reconstructing
the nile basin water allocation dialogue. Water. 10(6). p.707.
Sawin, J. L., 2013. Renewables 2013: Global status report. REN21.
Tesfa, B., 2013. Benefit of grand Ethiopian renaissance dam project (GERDP) for Sudan and
Egypt.
VerHoeVen, H., 2012. Hydropolitics of the nile. Eparation. p.104.
Online
Benefits of Grand Ethipian Renaissance dam project. 2018. [Online]. Available through
<http://eprints.hud.ac.uk/id/eprint/19305/1/Belachew_Tesfa_Articles_EIPSA_6_Dec_2013
-Uni.pdf>.
Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan sign deal to end Nile dispute. 2019. [Online]. Available through
<https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-32016763>.
Egypt's Choice: From the Nile Basin Treaty to the Cooperative Framework Agreement, an
International Legal Analysis. 2019. [Online]. Available through
<https://www.academia.edu/7250318/Egypts_Choice_From_the_Nile_Basin_Treaty_to_th
e_Cooperative_Framework_Agreement_an_International_Legal_Analysis>.
Energy constraint. 2013. [Online]. Available through
<http://www.ren21.net/Portals/0/documents/Resources/GSR/2013/GSR2013_lowres.pdf>.
Nile River. 2019. [Online]. Available through <https://www.britannica.com/place/Nile-River>.
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