Term Paper: Analyzing the European Union and Its Impact on the Economy

This essay comprehensively analyzes the European Union's economic impact, covering topics such as the impact of EU enlargement on member economies, the economic consequences of Brexit, the economic benefits of EU membership, and the development of EU social policy in response to the global economic crisis. It evaluates the EU's economic position, critically assesses its strengths and weaknesses, and examines the economic indicators affected by Brexit. The analysis draws upon various journal articles and research to provide a detailed understanding of the EU's role in shaping the economic landscape of its member states and beyond. The essay concludes by summarizing the key findings and highlighting the lessons learned for future global and European integration. Desklib provides access to this and other solved assignments to support student learning.

Running head: THE EUROPEAN UNION AND ITS IMPACT ON THEIR ECONOMY
The European Union and its impact on their economy
Name of the Student
Name of the University
Author Note
This paper has been specifically prepared for this class. It has not been submitted for
credit in a previous class and will not be submitted for credit in any future class, either in
whole or in part.
Signature:

THE EUROPEAN UNION AND ITS IMPACT ON THEIR ECONOMY
Table of Contents
Introduction:...............................................................................................................................3
Discussion:.................................................................................................................................3
Evaluating the impact of enlargement of EU on its economy:..................................................4
Impact of Brexit on the overall economy of EU:.......................................................................5
Economic benefits from the membership of EU:.......................................................................7
Social policy development by EU in the wake of global economic crisis:................................8
Evaluation of economic position of EU:....................................................................................9
Critically assessing the EU:.....................................................................................................11
Economic consequences of Brexit and evaluating different economic indicators:..................11
Conclusion:..............................................................................................................................14

THE EUROPEAN UNION AND ITS IMPACT ON THEIR ECONOMY
Introduction:
In this paper, the European Union and how it is able to impact it economy has been
discussed. Evaluation of the contribution of the European Union (EU) is done by referring to
various journal articles. The discussion of the contribution of EU has been segmented into
several parts such as how their trade policies impact the economy, potential of growth in the
global dimensions along with paying special attention on international trade and foreign
direct investment as the main driver of integration of EU. In addition to this, the assessment
has also been placed by in terms of evolution of relations of United Kingdom and EU. The
debate about the economic benefits from the membership of EU has been intensified in the
wake of recent crisis. The economic integration process in Europe is old than half a century.
Furthermore, the discussion also concentrates on the economic consequences of Brexit and
the lessons that for future global and European integration (ftp.iza.org, 2019).
European Union is the most developed regional economic integration that was
founded by the creation of free trade area of founder countries. Now, the integration of
twenty eight countries form the EU and development of all new and old members are
impacted by the enlargement of regional interactions. The analysis of joining the EU can
become interesting for the members striving in this regional economic integration.
Discussion:
The impact of overall process of enlargement on the economic growth of member
countries of EU is assessed by referring to international trade and foreign direct investment
being a driver of integration. This particular section has been evaluated by referring to journal
article titled” the impact of enlargement of EU on the economic growth of member
countries”. For this purpose, the reforms policies of countries were accessed with the policies
being discussed include methods and degree of privatization, macroeconomic stabilization,

THE EUROPEAN UNION AND ITS IMPACT ON THEIR ECONOMY
labor market development and business cycle refinement. All such policies aim at creating
welfare level by way of convergence and increasing the productivity. The old members and
accession countries were influenced by the enlargement process of EU. A common external
tariff rate was set with the elimination of tariff rate between the member countries. The
economy of countries were impacted by the enlargement process by creating an impact on
relative price of export and import, reallocation of power of supply and demand and changing
the level of consumption by influencing the level of welfare (tandfonline.com, 2019). In
addition to this, there were free movements of factor between the countries resulting from the
difference in wage level, employment rate and differences in the return to capital.
Evaluating the impact of enlargement of EU on its economy:
This particular article focused on various studies that determine the enlargement of
EU resulting from EU impact. The single market of EU provided many advantages by way of
significantly increasing the competition of the new member countries. A positive relationship
between the economic growth and openness to international trade is supported by vast array
of literatures. However, it is pointed by some other literature that the relationship between the
economic growth and international trade is not straight forward. Nevertheless, it was seen
with the expansion of EU due to new member countries joining and their share of exports
increasing with passing year.
With many new countries joining EU, the inflow of FDI helped in boosting economic
growth, restructuring of the domestic enterprise and technological innovation. The countries
having potential of membership of EU experienced a positive relationship between the
growth of GDP and inflow of FDI. However, such FDI inflow did not assist them in
providing capital required for industrial restructuring. FDI is determined by growth and size

THE EUROPEAN UNION AND ITS IMPACT ON THEIR ECONOMY
of market, trade linkages, privatization, stability and risk and cost of factors
(Personal.lse.ac.uk, 2019).
The regression conducted comes with conclusion that trade has positive and
significant impact on the growth of GDP per capita. However, such significant impact was
not noticed for new members. It was found from the analysis of flow of FDI on several
economic variables that most of the member countries of EU were positively influenced. That
is the positive impact was because of increased flow of FDI and one of the exception being a
country which was positively impacted by the increased volume of trade. It can be inferred
from the analysis of this particular research paper that the integration process of EU
benefitted old as well as new members. New members being positively impacted by positive
inflow of trade and the older member witnessed a positive impact on their economic growth
via the trade augmentation. However, the inflow of FDI is considered as large channel of
integration that positively contributed to their economic growth. EU now stands as the largest
integrated economy made their member countries ready to face the global challenges and
more political and economic power. EU has been a win-win game as the new members
experienced a boost in their economy and improved living standards and old members
benefitting by way of increased investment opportunities and rise of exports (Telò, 2016).
Impact of Brexit on the overall economy of EU:
The article titled “The economics of international disintegration” discusses the
economic consequences of Brexit and the lessons it generates for the global and European
integration. United Kingdom is one of the significant members of EU having open economy
and enjoying comparative advantage relying heavily on trade. It is identified that there would
be reduced economic integration between UK and its trading partner. This particular research
paper accounts for evaluating the impact of such change on the European economies and

THE EUROPEAN UNION AND ITS IMPACT ON THEIR ECONOMY
Britain. Some of the main conclusions that have been drawn in this literature is that the UK
will become poorer due to Brexit because of the consequence of migration between EU and
UK and trade barriers. The cost that will be borne by UK due to Brexit is uncertain with the
plausible estimates having range of 1% to 10% of per capita income of UK. However, the
cost incurred would be lower if following Brexit, Britain stays in Single European market.
Brexit is also likely to make other member countries suffer economically; however, the
estimated loss being less than what UK would face (independent.co.uk, 2019).
The article displayed computational general equilibrium trade models required for
running simulations considered it as the approach for studying the impact of Brexit. Such
models help in accounting for effects of general equilibrium such as trade diversions between
non EU and EU countries. Moreover, the effect of Brexit is also estimated by using a
quantitative trade model and the impact of trade cost is affected by considering three
channels. It has been found that the high trade barriers would make efficiency loss exceeding
the fiscal savings. The output and production efficiency of UK is reduced in accordance with
the comparative advantage theory and higher import prices resulting from increased trade
cost (Voxeu.org, 2019).
The overall economy of EU would also suffer from the fall in trade of EU and UK.
The impact on the non EU countries is quantitatively negligible as they are benefited due to
trade diversion. In addition to this, the article also presented arguments in favor of Brexit. It
presented a view that UK will be able to strike trade agreements with non EU countries;
however, there is no clarification on whether the country will face higher or lower trade
barriers resulting from Brexit. The costs of being a smaller market need to be outweighed
against the advantage of not compromising with remaining member countries. The fact that
UK would reap substantial benefits from the regulations post Brexit is not convincing.

THE EUROPEAN UNION AND ITS IMPACT ON THEIR ECONOMY
Assessment of the economic impact on the legislation of EU by government of UK found
cost being higher benefits (Arechavala et al., 2015).
Economic benefits from the membership of EU:
One of the articles titled” How much member countries benefits from European
Union” intends to examine the estimates of economic benefits from the membership of
European Union. It has always been of paramount importance to consider the economic
benefits from the enlargement of EU that is much driven by politics. With slowdown,
integration has been broadened and deepened. The debate about the economic benefits arising
from the membership of EU does not come as surprise in the wake of Euro zone crisis and
Great depression. It has been argued in the given column of the article that the economic
evidence is scant and the improved and new estimates of monetary benefits derived from
being member of EU has been presented. For all the countries joining the EU between 1980s
and 2004 with Greece being the exception witnessed a positive increase in gross domestic
product (Un.org, 2019). The article outlines that the literature presenting econometric
estimates of the monetary benefits from the membership of EU. The fragility of the estimates
has been warned by many of the literature studies. It was pointed out that in the absence of
integration, there gross domestic product of EU would be approximately one fifth lower than
what it is today. In this paper, the membership benefits of EU in terms of productivity and
economic growth is estimated by using the method of counterfactuals method. From the
analysis, it was found that the economic growth would be considerably lower than what they
are experiencing today had they not join the EU (Bellora & Jean, 2016). For instance, Spain
became a fully fledged member of EU in year 1986 and it would have lower per capita has it
not taken the membership of EU.

THE EUROPEAN UNION AND ITS IMPACT ON THEIR ECONOMY
All the countries taking the membership of EU experienced a substantial increase in
GDP with Greece being the exception. The magnitude of economic benefits is computed by
considering the difference between the synthetic and actual counterfactual in the per capita
gross domestic product. Analysis of the article comes with the conclusion that EU
membership has provided substantial benefits as they outweighed costs despite the
considerable differences between the countries. The question identified in the article is to
determine the factors that would help the countries in better exploiting the entry to EU. Role
of financial developments were highlighted by some of the preliminary findings by the
investigation of the issue.
Social policy development by EU in the wake of global economic crisis:
The article titled” The global economic crisis and the development social policy of
European Union” examines the disclosure in the social policy of European Union that
evolved during the global economic crisis. Both the qualitative and quantitative analysis is
presented in the article for analyzing the development of social policy after and prior to the
global financial crisis. EU is considered as good indicator in the social policy development.
The potential impact of the crisis on the social policy disclosures of EU is viewed by
referring to the literature on welfare state and globalization (Bieling et al., 2016). Social
policy of EU is faced with growing demand for streamlining the welfare programs towards
creation of job and growth. A twofold contribution is made to the social policy literature in
the article and changes in the disclosures help in contributing to understand the international
social policy in a better manner. It has been found that the ideational approach for analyzing
the social policy is the open methods of coordination that considered a qualitative focus on
the disclosure of policy. Market oriented policies is demanded by member oriented policies at
the level of EU in accordance with the efficient hypothesis. The article has used two methods

THE EUROPEAN UNION AND ITS IMPACT ON THEIR ECONOMY
based on the analysis of key policy document are OMC on social inclusion and OMC on
employment (sagepub.com 2019).
It was found from then analysis that the social policy was considerably impacted by
the economic crisis. The economic rationale in the open market coordination on social
inclusion gained importance after the crisis. It is indicated by the result that the core of open
methods for coordination on social inclusion is employment. The shifting of discourse
towards economic rationale of social changed for only one open method of coordination. It is
suggestive of the fact that the view of social policy that it helps in gearing toward growth,
efficiency and job creation is partly strengthened by crisis (Vinokurov, 2017).
Evaluation of economic position of EU:
In one of the article titled” The European Union as a global economic power” aims to
evaluate the economic position of EU from 1995 to 2015 along with the growth potential up
to 2025. The economic growth of the economy is analyzed by referring to the variables such
as growth rate of GDP (gross domestic product), total factor productivity and input to GDP
(Dhingra et al., 2016).
One of the important factors that cannot be overlooked while assessing the growth
prospects of EU is public finances. Most of the countries of EU facing the issue of debt crisis
and doubling of the public debt compared to previous time have been noticed.

THE EUROPEAN UNION AND ITS IMPACT ON THEIR ECONOMY
Comparison of real GDP growth of EU and US:
(Source: Mucha-Leszko & Twarowska, 2016)
EU faced an increment in the average level of debt being expressed as a percentage of
GDP to 88.6% in year 2014 compared to 73% in year 2009. However, it is expected that in
the subsequent year, the percentage would decline. The most indebted country among the
member states of EU is Greece followed by Portugal, Ireland and Belgium. However, EU
experiences lower public debt compared to its competitors such as Japan and United States. It
cannot be forgotten to mention that the largest economies of EU have lower public debt
compared to US. From the analysis of the different factors, it has been concluded that there is
widening technological and economic gap between US and EU. Furthermore, the chance of
EU to maintain its position at second in the world economy is weakened due to lower growth
of GDP and increased polarization of economic power of world. It is forecasted till 2025 that
the gap between US and EU countries will keep on widening and being applicable to
economic leader that is Germany (Woolcock, 2016). On other hand, a better prospect of
growth is estimated and the position of EU should be stimulated resulting from lower debt
servicing cost and lower public debt. The article outlines that the structural changes and the
economic growth is less likely to be influenced by the external and internal factors. It was
found that the progressing liberalization on the internal market of EU contributed to

THE EUROPEAN UNION AND ITS IMPACT ON THEIR ECONOMY
economic growth and helped in encouraging economic activity. Until the financial crisis of
2008-2009, the trade competitiveness of EU was deepened because of diversity with the least
competitive countries experiencing lower trade deficits because of the slump in import and
demand (Ebell & Warren, 2016).
Some of the basic conclusions drawn by author were deepening of the economic and
technological gap between United States and European Union. Secondly, the economic
power of the world was becoming increasingly polarized and limiting the chances of EU in
maintaining its position as second centre in the world economy because of lower growth of
GDP. Thirdly, it was found that the rate of growth of GDP in EU could be raised by
improving the situation in the public finances of EU as against United States (Mucha &
Twarowska, 2016). However, some of the members of EU have dramatically lower public
finances such as Portugal, Italy and Greece. Fourthly, it has been forecasted that deepening of
economic gap between US and largest countries of EU is indicated from the forecast of
economic growth.
Critically assessing the EU:
In one of the article published by Cato institute, a critical assessment of the European
Union has been conducted. The article outlines the integration process of EU, democratic
failures, mounting deficit, rise of populist parties, greatest achievement of EU and views on
reforming the EU. However, the main focus of article is confiding on the problems faced by
Europe and inability of the Union in addressing such problems. The failures of EU and the
reasons associated with it have been explained in the article while ignoring on some of other
failure (Ebell et al., 2016). Growing instability in Europe is attributed to EU and the source of
friction between different nations is the monetary policy with stagnating Italy and falling
Greece on one side and relatively well of Germany and Austria on other. The impact of

THE EUROPEAN UNION AND ITS IMPACT ON THEIR ECONOMY
regulations of EU on ex communities’ countries results in wider difference in productivity. It
can be seen that the richest state of EU has experienced 14.9 time higher GDP as against the
poorest state that is Bulgaria (cato.org, 2019). From the analysis of the article, it has been
found that the problems faced by Europe are not completely addressed by EU instead it is
exacerbating. There is no indefinite succession of rearguard action, although it has been
successful in plodding along.
Economic consequences of Brexit and evaluating different economic indicators:
In this particular paper, the economic consequences of Brexit has also been evaluated
which has been done by referring to article titled” common market economics-Better off in or
out”. The article analyzes the cost and benefits of Brexit by conserving the impact of
regulations before and after Brexit. Member countries enjoy increased trade and at the same
time, it would divert trade from more efficient non EU suppliers and better non EU markets.
Member countries are able to access the single market of the world but at the regulatory
burden cost which the Brussels imposed. From the analysis, it has been found that the least
regulated countries of Europe are Britain. Furthermore, it is argued that the small business of
UK not exporting to the remaining EU should be exempted from regulation of single market.
At the same time, it has also been argued that the obstacle to faster employment and growth is
attributable to inadequate infrastructure and poor education instead of the regulations. The
trade of Britain with rest of EU is 55% greater as against outside EU (economist.com, 2019).
Economist has come up with the view that entering into the free trade deals would cause
Britain to loose on the bargaining clout in the biggest trade block of world. Individual
countries are not able to sway as big trading block because trade negotiations are more than
tariffs such as standards and regulation. In addition to this, leaving the EU by UK would have
considerable impact on the migration and the overall migration intends to reduce by way of

THE EUROPEAN UNION AND ITS IMPACT ON THEIR ECONOMY
continuous efforts on part of government. This particular article also accounts for the results
of some report prepared by different sources. Some source views that the benefit of low
budget contribution and les regulation would outweigh the losses from FDI and trade
resulting in rising of GDP by a net of 0.1%. It is reckoned in another report that Brexit would
make the annual GDP smaller by 1.241%-77% depending upon the trading arrangement it
would indulge into. On other hand, views from Open Europe reckon that the right mix of
policies would determine the positive outcome and the annual impact of GDP due to Brexit
would be between -0.8% and 0.6% (Falkner, 2016). It is fairly concluded in the article that
although Brexit would have negative economic consequences, it would not be that large.
There are clear downside risks associated with Britain opting out of EU despite the presented
argument that they can do perfectly well being outside the EU. However, the views are based
on some heroic assumptions that Britain would be an open economy post Brexit as they
would pursue the dream of liberalization, dream of free trade, tighter control on immigration
and open borders (Felbermayr et al., 2017). On other hand, they would face huge
uncertainties in doing business. Therefore, it can be inferred from the analysis that this article
presented a mixed view on Britain leaving EU in terms of negativity and positivity faced by
such decision.
One of the major aspects in discussing the EU and impact on its overall economy is
providing an explanation in context of Brexit. This article analyses the impact of Brexit on
rest of the bloc as determining whether exiting of Britain from EU is a burden or boon for the
economy of country is hugely contentious.
It has been found that departure of UK scheduled in year 2019 is likely to translate
into strong saving rate, export figures and higher growth figures of the rest of members.
However, the economy of EU would be impacted by Brexit in terms of low productivity and
joblessness. The impact on the economy of EU as a whole is inevitable as Britain leaving EU

THE EUROPEAN UNION AND ITS IMPACT ON THEIR ECONOMY
would result in Union leaving losing a big economy after Germany that accounted for 12% of
Gross domestic product of EU. It is estimated that economy of EU would lose 16% of its
GDP and reduction in the population by 13% as more inhabitants dominates only France and
Germany (ft.com, 2019). Furthermore, the departure of Britain would make economy of EU
smaller than US economy.
GDP of UK compared to rest of bloc of EU:
(Source: ft.com, 2019)
The contribution of UK towards economy of EU has been diminished in the recent
decade and it was considered as a growth engine in the decade before 2007. It is further
predicted that without UK, the economic growth of EU is faster because for the past two
years, the rest economy of EU is growing at higher pace compared to UK. With such forecast
based on purely technical assumptions of status quo in terms of trade between them. Another
factor that can have been depicted is that the export growth of UK is less than export growth
of rest of Union and the gap increasing in the past two years. Moreover, the saving rate of UK

THE EUROPEAN UNION AND ITS IMPACT ON THEIR ECONOMY
is higher without UK. The average budget balance of EU has been dragged due to the fiscal
deficit resulting from the global financial crisis (Lse.ac.uk, 2019). Other front is the labor
productivity with UK enjoying higher productivity compared to rest of the members of EU.
Therefore, it can be said that on average UK will be poorer and less productive if it is opting
out of EU compared to what it is today.
Conclusion:
The present paper discussed above analyses several articles articulating the impact of
European Union on its economy. Some article addresses the economic benefits due to the
integration process of member countries of EU or its enlargement. While other articles have
taken into account the impact of Brexit on the overall economy of EU. Such evaluation of the
contribution of Brexit to the rest of the bloc of EU has been done by performing cost and
benefit analysis. After performing such analysis, it can be inferred that the overall impact of
UK leaving EU would be that former will be poorer than what it is today. However, UK
would be exposed to different new trade areas that would trigger its economic growth. There
have been vast array of literature used in research paper that outlines the fact that the
enlargement of the Union has resulted in increased economic growth of its member countries.
Moreover, the economic crisis, development of social policy helped in creating jobs and
streamlining the welfare programs. Increasing public finances has resulted in slower growth
of gross domestic product of overall economy of EU.

THE EUROPEAN UNION AND ITS IMPACT ON THEIR ECONOMY
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