Technology Forecasting and Strategic Technology Planning Explored

This report explores the role of technology forecasting (TF) in strategic technology planning (STP) within organizations. It reviews literature highlighting the importance of STP for competitive advantage and ROI, and examines the strategic technology planning process. The report identifies gaps in current research, specifically the limited attention given to TF's role in STP and disruptive technology adoption. The research objectives include identifying TF's role in STP, assessing its vitality, exploring its impact on disruptive technology adoption, and determining the potential for errors. The paper aims to provide insights for decision-making in technology development and improve the effectiveness of strategic planning, demonstrating positive linkages between TF, technology planning, and business performance. Desklib provides access to this and other solved assignments for students.

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Abstract
As the importance of R&D (Research and Development) has been growing in economic
growth, the accountability and effectiveness of R&D program are highly emphasized.
Especially, in times of economic downturn, the evaluation of performance in a firm is needed
to justify R&D investment. In response, various attempts have been made to improve success
rates of R&D projects, gain competitive advantage, and achieve a firm's growth in
profitability. In particular, in industries where technological innovation is significant,
strategic technology planning and R&D capabilities may be the lead ones in defining the
dynamic capabilities of a firm. In addition, technology forecasting (TF) in technology
planning is a crucial step to follow before developing technologies/products/processes in
need.
In this regard, researchers have an abiding interest in enhancing methods to forecast emerging
technology, while practitioners have a considerable interest in selecting appropriate tools to
apply in their field for better forecasting results. Nevertheless, so far it is not well
documented how appropriately the current research responds to this need. Thus, a thorough
review on TF techniques is conducted to help researchers and practitioners capture
methodologies in a tangible way and identify the current trends in the TF arena. Moreover,
there is still a lack of clear guidance as to where and how particular TF methods are useful in
strategic planning based on technology characteristics as well as the nature of industry. The
purpose of this study is to enrich the stream of research on TF activities in a firm for
practitioners and researchers, a unique context where TF could lead to technological
innovation. This research offers a classification of the approaches, and presents technological,
industrial, methodological, and organizational aspects of TF methods that are inherent in TF
activities. Furthermore, this study provides empirical evidences to support organizational and
managerial implications regarding TF activities associated with technology planning in a

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firm. Research findings in regimes of technological change suggest insights on technological,
organizational, and managerial processes within the firm.
On the other hand, research on the effects on business performance of "best practices" of
strategic planning, which enable firms to articulate their plans to develop, acquire, and deploy
resources for accomplishing firms' financial growth, has so far ignored the roles of strategic
technology planning associated with TF. In this regard, this study explores a set of indicators,
discusses, and presents the findings from the literature in such a way that they become useful
for researchers or managers who are in charge of measuring the R&D performance and
business performance from innovation activity. Next, this research tested the hypothetical
framework proposed not only to provide a current snapshot of how firms across industries
implement best practices in strategic technology planning, but also to improve the
effectiveness of strategic planning. The results present the positive linkages between TF,
technology planning, and superior business performance. The findings in this research will
help policy makers, universities, research institutes/national labs, and companies to enhance
their decision making process on technology development.

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Table of Contents
Introduction................................................................................................................................4
Literature Review.......................................................................................................................5
Importance of Strategic technology planning........................................................................5
Strategic Technology Planning Process.................................................................................5
Technology forecasting for decision making.........................................................................6
Technological forecasting for innovation management.........................................................6
Gap in Knowledge......................................................................................................................7
Objectives...................................................................................................................................8
Research questions.....................................................................................................................8
Expected Outcome.....................................................................................................................9
Research Methodology...............................................................................................................9
Project Plan (Timeline and Budget).........................................................................................10
Risk Analysis...........................................................................................................................14
Conclusion................................................................................................................................16
References................................................................................................................................17

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Title: EXPLORING TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR
STRATEGIC TECHNOLOGY PLANNING
Introduction
Technology has emerged as one of the biggest contributor to the competitive
advantage and sustainability that an organisation enjoys. The technologies such as Cloud
Computing, Big data, Internet of Things and other similar technological advancements are
entertaining the organisations. Additionally, the introduction of disruptive technologies such
as BCI (brain Computer Interface), 3D printers and other are also making their way into the
organisations. The introduction of disruptive technological tools and techniques have
developed a very crucial situation for the organisations (Wan, Williamson and Yin 2015).
The situation in discussion is about the adoption and compatibility of disruptive technologies
in organisation and its processes. Hence, the firms are assessing their focus on planning the
adoption and implication before investing in any technology.
One of the most prominent solution for the discussed situation is technology
forecasting which is the subject of the proposed paper. The subject of the paper is a tool that
is capable of offering its assistance in identifying the impact of technological change such as
the timing, functional capacity, significance and similar other factors of the technologies
(Lim 2018). In other words, the subject forecasts the future of the technological adoption and
how the discussed adoption will impact the owners (Rai et al. 2017). The subject can be used
for strategic technology planning and the proposed paper is aimed at analysing the how the
subject can assist in strategic planning of the technology. The paper will do a literary review
of the past works and identify the gap, based upon which the research questions will be
developed. The expected outcome, research methodology and project plan (both time and
budget) are also discussed before analysing the risk to summarise the paper.

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Literature Review
Technology forecasting (TF) is one of the tools that had proved to be a major
difference maker for the organisations who wishes to plan their technology(ies). Several
researches has been assessed on the subject and the discussed section offers a summary of the
most relevant literary work.
Importance of Strategic technology planning
Strategic technology planning is a strategy plan that enables the planners to
understand their current technological status and where their technological infrastructure is
moving. The consideration of the organisational operations and impact of the technology is
also taken in account to earn sustainability and competitive advantage. Tung (2016), states
that strategic technology planning (STP) can be equipped by the governing entities (such as
government, organisation owners and others) to mitigate the issues such as technology gap
and other major issues. STP is vital because it offers ROI (Return on Investment) for the
technology that the organisation is using and in the absence of the former, the technology
may be used inadequately which in the process may prove to be catastrophic for the
organisation (Bryson 2018). STP also assists in defining the roles & responsibilities that each
of the technology should offer in the organisation with context to the organisational mission
vision and strategy.
Strategic Technology Planning Process
Several researches have been conducted to identify the most prominent method to do
the planning in discussion and most of them are vital in nature. However, one thing that is
relevant in most of them is the structure that is proposed for the STP. The first step includes
researching the needs of the organisation, followed by the roles and responsibilities that the
technology is planning in the organisation (Bryson 2018). The following step includes

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brainstorming on the responsibilities that the technology can be given, while deciding the
responsibilities the capability of the technology is given adequate attention. Post selection of
the responsibilities, a consultancy is done to assess the responsibility of the success of the
technology and in the process of the organisation post which the plan is devised (Cassidy
2016). As part of the consultancy either the organisation outsource the discussed process or
hires an expert to assess the deemed duty. However, the deemed strategy development can be
simplified by the introduction of the technology forecasting tool.
Technology forecasting for decision making
Technology forecasting is the process of forecasting the technology that takes
consideration of the characteristics, timing, dimension, diffusion rate of machines, invention,
dimension performance in context to the organisation (Gupta and Barua 2016). The role of
technology forecasting has been defined by Sylak-Glassman, Williams and Gupta (2016),
where they state that the former plays a major role in decision making. Additionally, the
authors have also stated that to leverage the subject of paper it is of great prominence that it
should fit in the ongoing workflow structure while being compatible with the decision
making structure. However, the authors have also stated that the low rate of technology
forecasting is because most of organisations does not depend on technology for decision
making and hence, it is a constraint. An and Ahn (2016) have supported the claims made
above and have also stated that TF cannot be avoided in the modern society and the
governing entities should adopt it soon or their competitive advantage may be compromised.
Technological forecasting for innovation management
An and Ahn (2016) in their paper have attempted at proving that the implication of
the subject offers innovative management to an organisation. The statement of the authors in
discussion can be taken as base to state that TF offers a path for entertaining competitive

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advantage for the organisation which is supported by Cheng et al. (2017). The authors have
cited special attention to the disruptive technologies & disruption. Disruption is categorised
in two different categories one being the technological disruption and other is industrial
disruption. Discussing about the technological disruption Cheng et al. (2016) have stated that
with timely adjustment in the technological strategy, the firm may be able to entertain
minimisation of the technological and in the process operational threats. They also support
the adoption of the technology forecasting as part of the decision making process.
The review of the literary work can be summarised to state that technology
forecasting has been considered as one of the most prominent need for an organisation and is
one of the well-researched topic. However, certain gaps have been identified in the literature
associated with the technology forecasting and strategic technology planning and the
following section have attempted to point out the gaps.
Gap in Knowledge
One of the most prominent gap that had been identified post the literature review is
that though attention has been cited on the need of the subject in the decision making and
management processes of an organisation very little or no attention have been cited to the
role of the subject in strategic technology planning. Though some researches have cited that
technology forecasting can play a vital role in planning but no focus have been cited on the
strategic technology planning. Additionally, no assessment has also been conducted on
determining the accuracy of the decisions that are made based on the technology forecasting
because errors have been identified in technology forecasting in the past. The role of
technology has been limited to assessment of the technologies in application and decision
making on the existing technologies. Another gap identified is that no proper assessment has
been done to identify the role that the subject is capable of playing in the adoption of

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disruptive technologies. Hence, based on the gaps identified above the research objectives
and questions for the proposed paper have been developed.
Objectives
The primary objective of the paper is to identify the role that technology forecasting is
capable of playing in the strategic technology planning of an organisation. Additionally, the
paper will also attempt to identify the errors (if any) exists in the technology forecasting to
ensure that the strategic technology planning is fruitful for the organisation. The primary
objective and sub-objectives that the proposed paper will pursue has been listed as follows:
 To identify the role that technology forecasting is capable of playing in strategic
technology planning.
 To identify the vitality of the subject and its implication in the strategic technology
planning.
 To identify the role that technology forecasting can play in adoption of disruptive
technology.
 To determine the chances of errors in strategic technology planning post adoption of
technology forecasting.
 To determine whether or not traditional decision making is superior than with
technology forecasting.
Research questions
The objectives of the proposed paper can be summarised to conclude on the research
questions for the proposed research work. Based on the objectives of the paper the research
questions of the proposed paper have been listed as follows:
i. What role can technology forecasting play in the strategic technology planning?

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ii. Is there any chance of errors in the strategic technology planning post adoption of the
technology forecasting?
iii. Which decision making process is superior technology forecasting based decision
making or traditional decision making?
Expected Outcome
The proposed paper is aimed at offering an insight at the relationship between
technology forecasting and strategic technology planning. The outcome of the paper will
prove to be crucial in assisting the organisations or scholars to conclude on the role that the
subject is capable of playing in strategic planning. The organisations will be benefitted by
gaining a clear concept over the adoption of technology forecasting while the scholars and
academic readers will get a background for further research work on the subject.
Additionally, if any errors are identified in the strategic planning post adoption of the subject,
it will offer the scholars with chance to assess on the mitigation strategy for the identified
errors.
Research Methodology
Literary work based on the technology forecasting and strategic technology planning
will play a crucial role in establishing the background for the proposed research work. The
philosophy for the proposed paper will be positivism because both the scientific and abstract
data will be detailed to understand the perception of the organisations about the subject
(Hughes and Sharrock 2016). The design for the paper will be analytical while deductive
approach will be pursued to conclude on the research work (Lewis 2015). The data collection
will be done through mixed data collection method where both the primary and secondary
data will be collected. The sampling of the data will be done by taking consideration of both
the likelihood and non-likelihood sampling method because both qualitative and quantitative

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data will be collected as part of the primary data (Stage and Manning 2015). The analysis of
the data will be done with assistance of statistical tool, MS Excel (Silverman 2016).
Data collection will be done based on mixed data collection methodology. First
secondary data will be collected through reviewing the literary work of past over relevant
subjects and current data will be collected from newspapers, magazines, government
publications and others (Palinkas et al. 2015). The next step would be summarised the
secondary data and based on the summarised data questionnaire will be developed. The
questionnaire will then be distributed among different organisation and to different
technology forecasting professionals to collect primary quantitative data (Rassia 2017). The
quantitative data will then be summarised to develop interview questions for the collection of
primary qualitative data. In the final steps all the data will be summarised to conclude on the
findings.
The sampling of quantitative data will be done based likelihood sampling method
while qualitative data will be sampled based on the non-likelihood sampling method (Sutton
and Austin 2015). The analysis of the data will be done with assistance of MS excel statistical
tool (Taylor, Bogdan and Devault 2015). It should also be noted that if any additional tool is
equipped as part of the analysis process it will be mentioned in the final report.
Project Plan (Timeline and Budget)
Task Name Duration Start Finish Predecessors
Technology Forecasting
in Strategic Technology
Planning
104 days Mon 23-07-18 Thu 13-12-18
Phase 1: Initialisation 15 days Mon 23-07-18 Fri 10-08-18
Topic selection 2 days Mon 23-07-18 Tue 24-07-18

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Background
establishment 5 days Wed 25-07-18 Tue 31-07-18 2
Brainstorming 2 days Wed 01-08-18 Thu 02-08-18 3
Preliminary review 4 days Fri 03-08-18 Wed 08-08-18 4
Research objectives
and questions 2 days Thu 09-08-18 Fri 10-08-18 5
Phase 2: Planning 11 days Mon 13-08-18 Mon 27-08-18
Timeline 5 days Mon 13-08-18 Fri 17-08-18 6
Budget 3 days Mon 20-08-18 Wed 22-08-18 8
Drafting Research
Paper 2 days Thu 23-08-18 Fri 24-08-18 9
Draft Completed 0 days Wed 22-08-18 Wed 22-08-18 9
Proposal Submission 1 day Mon 27-08-18 Mon 27-08-18 10
Phase 3: Execution 41 days Tue 28-08-18 Tue 23-10-18
Literature review 10 days Tue 28-08-18 Mon 10-09-18 12
Summarising
Literature finding 5 days Tue 11-09-18 Mon 17-09-18 14
Developing
questionnaire 2 days Tue 18-09-18 Wed 19-09-18 15
Collection of
quantitative data 5 days Thu 20-09-18 Wed 26-09-18 16
Summarising
quantitative data 6 days Thu 27-09-18 Thu 04-10-18 17
Collection of
Qualitative data 8 days Fri 05-10-18 Tue 16-10-18 18
Summarising
Qualitative Data 5 days Wed 17-10-18 Tue 23-10-18 19

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Phase 4: Analysis 23 days Wed 24-10-18 Fri 23-11-18
Summarising all data 10 days Wed 24-10-18 Tue 06-11-18 15,18,20
Concluding 8 days Wed 07-11-18 Fri 16-11-18 22
Report Development 5 days Mon 19-11-18 Fri 23-11-18 23
Report Completed 0 days Fri 23-11-18 Fri 23-11-18 23,24
Phase 5: Closure 14 days Mon 26-11-18 Thu 13-12-18
Submission of Report 4 days Mon 26-11-18 Thu 29-11-18 24
Oral Presentation 10 days Fri 30-11-18 Thu 13-12-18 27
Table: Project Timeline and Budget
(Source: Created by Author Using MS Project)

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Figure: Gantt Chart
(Source: Created by Author Using MS Project)
Risk Analysis
Sl.
No.
Risk/
Vulnerabilities
Description Likelihoo
d
Impac
t
1 Schedule
Escalation
If the schedule extends the timeframe. 3 5
2 Budget Escalation The project is not completed in
estimated budget
4 5

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3 Error in
questionnaire
formulation
Error in questionnaire development 3 4
4 Distribution of
questionnaire
Questionnaire Distribution error 2 4
5 Lack of Response Little response will impact the
outcome
4 4
6 Improper
understanding
Inadequate understanding of the
project motive by the participants
3 5
7 Error in the
analysing
Analysis error will impact the
outcome
2 2
8 Software error Error in statistical tool 3 3
9 Improper
recording
Inadequate recording of the findings 2 5
10 Concluding and
structuring
Appropriate concluding and
structuring is crucial to make the
report viable for readers
1 3
11 Ethical issues Ethical issues development 3 3
Likelihood
54
5 2
3
8
11
3 1
6

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2
7 4 9
1
10
1 2 3 4 5
Impact
Table: Risk Analysis and Risk Matrix
(Source: Created by Author)
Conclusion
Hence the report can be summarised to state that technology forecasting is one of the
prominent fields that is getting attention from the researchers and scholars. However, it
implication and association is one of the field that still needs to be assessed by the by the
researchers. Hence based on the identified gaps the research objective of the proposed paper
has been developed. The data will be collected by mixed data collection of methodology
where both secondary data and primary data (both qualitative and quantitative). Hence, the
proposal can be concluded to state that the research work in discussion will offer prominent
advantage to the organisations as part of the adoption of technology forecasting in strategic
technology planning and will also develop a base for future researches.

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technological forecasting and its implication for innovation management in
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strengthening and sustaining organizational achievement. John Wiley & Sons.
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Lim, D.J., 2018. Technology forecasting using DEA in the presence of
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Wan, F., Williamson, P.J. and Yin, E., 2015. Antecedents and implications of disruptive
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