MPE707 International Banking: Forex Trading Strategies and Outcomes

This report details a student's experience in forex trading within the context of the MPE707 International Banking and Finance course. The student executed 23 trades across various currency pairs, employing strategies such as position sizing and stop-loss orders to manage risk. The report highlights both successes and failures, with a focus on lessons learned regarding market analysis, risk management, and the importance of disciplined trading. The student reflects on weaknesses, such as closing profitable trades too early and allowing losses to accumulate, and discusses the challenges of trading during news events. Ultimately, the report provides insights into the complexities of forex trading and the importance of a well-defined trading strategy. Desklib offers a platform for students to access this and other solved assignments and past papers.

Running Head: Forex Trading
SPECULATION IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET
TRIMESTER 1, 2018
STUDENT DETAILS:
Last Name First Name Student ID
ACCOUNT DETAILS:
Username Current Password
IBF- d4xFQun6
ACCOUNT BALANCE (provide the final balance after you have closed all positions and cancelled all pending orders):
AUD Balance 41,973.99
MY CLOSED TRADES (provide the number of completed trades in each of the boxes below – except for the last box where you should provide the
names of currencies, commodities and indices if any):
Day Trading 23
Forwards 0
Pending Orders (note this will not count
toward the 12 required trades)
0
Vanilla Options (note this is not required
but you must report if you have traded.
Options can be counted toward the 12
required trades)
0
Names of currencies, commodities and
indices traded (such as AUD, USD…) (note
commodities and indices are not required
but you must report if you have traded)
EUR, GBP, USD, AUD, NZD, CAD, JPY
WORD COUNT (excluding executive summary, footnotes and appendices to the report):
Word count 2000

Forex Trading 2
Executive Summary
I entered the market hoping to make huge profits given the fact that my capital was
leveraged. I opened 23 trades during the whole period, traded 7 currencies, gained in 16 trades,
lost in 6 and cancelled one using deal cancellation. However, I ended up at a losing position, I
closed many trades at a gain and fewer at a loss. The amount I lost at the losing trades was bigger
that all the gains. Even though I ended up in a loss my percentage of success was 69.6%
regardless on the gain size, and 26.1% was failure. On 27th April 2018, I traded some new and
gained significantly. I had however used the deal cancellation if the trade moved in opposite
direction.
During the entire trading period, I used some risk management tools such as stop losses.
Since I was taking long positions, I always fixed the stop losses far away from the market price
such that it was hard to be triggered even if the market moved in the opposite direction.
However, I fixed the stop loss closer to the market price during new period as there is high
potential of the market moving very fast either in my favor or to the opposite direction. This
market is risky but there is high potential of profit making

Forex Trading 3
Table of Contents
Executive Summary........................................................................................................................2
Introduction....................................................................................................................................4
My Risk Management Strategies....................................................................................................5
My Weaknesses..............................................................................................................................6
Lessons...........................................................................................................................................6
Conclusion......................................................................................................................................7
Bibliography....................................................................................................................................8
Appendices.....................................................................................................................................9
My Statement.............................................................................................................................9
My Closed Trades.....................................................................................................................12

Forex Trading 4
The Challenges and Secrets of Forex Trading
Introduction
Forex market is the market where currencies are traded with each other. Trading involves
the buying and selling of currencies. Currencies are traded in pairs e.g. EUR/USD
When you predict that the EUR currency will rise against the USD, the next step is to buy the
EUR. If the EUR actually gains value, you end up making some profit. On the contrary, if the
EUR loses value and you had bought the currency pair, you end up at a loss. Similarly, if with
the same currency pair EUR/USD you predict that the value of the USD is going to rise, the next
step is to sell the currency pair. If the USD actually gains value, you end up making some gains,
but if it losses value, you end up in losses. This two situations explains the concept of making a
profit whether a currency is gaining or losing value. I was faced by both situations and I
confirmed it to be true. This makes the forex market to be considered the most profitable market
in the whole world; with proper trading strategy, there is high potential of making huge profits.
FXB Trading (2017)noted that there are over 3 trillion USD traded daily on the forex
market, and that one has to deal with risks to make some profit; no trader can make profit on all
the trades entered, sometimes losses will be part of the trading. As I enter in forex trading, am
quite aware that forex trading is associated with great risks. The first thing I will do is to
familiarize myself with various risk management techniques that will help me in maximizing my
gains while minimizing my losses. For the entrance, I will start by trading small lots where I will
be risking small amounts of my virtual capital. I understand that the demo account operates in a
similar way to the live account, thus I will take it seriously not to exhaust my virtual capital.
One of the most important drivers for market movement according to many analysts is
that of economic news. The news have been argued by make the market move very fast within
some seconds. A single movement during the news period can result in making huge gains or
huge losses as well. For a start, I will first avoid trading currency pairs when the market news are
set to be announced on a sooner time (say like, I avoid taking long positions for a currency pair
with news expected to be announced either on the same day or the following day). In case I’ll
have such a long term trade, I will always close it some hours before whether it will be at a gain
or a loss. Later, as I familiarize myself with the easyMarkets platform and how it operates, I shall

Forex Trading 5
consider trading huge lots and risk huge proportions of my virtual capital. As soon I find a proper
strategy for trading the news, I will start doing so.
My Risk Management Strategies
One of the strategy was position sizing where I decided to trade lower lots for the trades
that seemed more risky. On the other hand, I traded bigger lots for the trades that had a higher
probability of success (Forextraders.com, 2016). Limiting losses was another strategy, I used
stop loss to limit my losses. However, I lacked discipline in this in that I used stop loss that were
risking huge amounts of my capital. Russell (2017) referred to this as a mental stop loss. The
most important risk management strategy I was supposing to use but it’s like it’s not supported
by the easyMarkets platform is that of buy stop and sell stop orders. This could greatly reduce
my risks during news announcement periods. During the news period I could have set both the
buy stop and sell stop to the same currency pair such that either of the two will be triggered
depending on the direction taken by the market as directed by Brooks (2015). Another important
risk management I discovered from research is that of using a trailing stop which acts as a stop
loss. The difference is that in this you set a percentage by which the trade closes automatically if
the trade moves in the opposite direction; also if a trade is at a gain, when a reversal occurs, the
trade still closes at the same set percentage locking in some gains (England, 2012). I lacked this
feature in the platform. Before I opened a position, I always checked the position the market is
on the chat. I.e. whether it’s on a support or resistance area. Maliti (2014) noted that this is
important determinant of the entry point.
I used the deal cancellation feature of the easyMarkets’ platform. This feature is good
especially during the news period. The fee charged are too small considering the amount that
could have been lost if the trade hit the stop loss. I used it to cancel a losing trade and made a
smaller loss than could have been the case if I had not cancelled the losing trade. In some other
cases, I never cancelled the trades because I trusted that in the long term my trade could take the
predicted movement; while some reverted, others ended up hitting the stop loss.
On 24th April I missed the news on the Australian Dollar (AUD) Consumer Price Index
(CPI) (YoY) (1Q). This specific news has a behavior that could have led to loss making. At first
when the news were released, the AUD lost value by 15 pips on average for most of the currency
pairs it’s attached to. However, this did not last for long, the AUD again gained value by more
than 25 pips on average for all currency related pairs. During news periods, I would have

Forex Trading 6
considered employing a strategy of setting my sell stop and buy stop below and above by 10
pips, then my stop loss at 10 pips above for a sell stop and below for a buy stop. However, the
easyMarkets’ Mt4 doesn’t give the option of a buy or sell stop for pending orders. This explains
why even though I had a better strategy to trade the market news, I opted to avoid the news all in
all. If I decided to use the limits for pending orders, I was never sure at which point during the
news the market would stop and take a reversal movement. I considered this to be a risky
strategy during the news periods. Even if I decided to use the sell or buy limit pending orders, I
could have fixed my sell limits far above or buy limits far below the current market price such
that there was a very small probability of being triggered.
My Weaknesses
On my first day of trade, I initiated a trade that hit the stop loss at a greater loss. This
made me to become loss conscious because my intended goal was to make as much profit as
possible. From this period onwards, I constantly watched my long term trades so as to close it as
soon as I identified a significant profit level. In some cases, when a my trade moved in the
opposite direction at a very huge loss, and then again the trade moves on my favor, I couldn’t
wait but close the trade at the lowest loss possible or at the least gain with a fear that the trade
might move back to the losing position. Considering the transactions I made, the gains are
smaller but many but the losses are fewer but huge. This is a weakness clearly highlighted by
Stanley (2012); most traders are winning less but losing more. This is because I couldn’t allow
the gains to continue flowing to avoid the risk of losing what I had already gained; on the other
hand, losses continued to flow with a hope that the trade will reverse the movement to the
intended direction.
Lessons
I learnt that because the platform notes that most of the traders are buying or selling a
currency pair, this does not always give a good reason to enter the trade. I bought a currency pair
that was said to be bought by more than 80% of the traders and still I ended up in a losing
position. It is therefore better to rely on technical analyses of your own rather than depending on
the market information. The most important thing in forex trading is thus to know the appropriate
point to enter the market, fixing the stop loss, take profits, and knowing when to exit.
An important lesson I learnt is that, the level of my risk management was low, this is
because for instance I relied on the stop loss directly generated by the platform rather than

Forex Trading 7
adjusting my stop loss to a level that I could only make lower losses. Even though I used to set
the take profits, I never considered the stop loss to be utmost important. The major reason for
this is that most of the trades I took were meant to be long term and I never expected that the
trades would move to the opposite direction to a larger extent such that they would hit the stop
loss. The mental stop loss strategy is not effective as it always tempts one to push the stop loss
outwards as soon as the market draws near it. This is a mistake I did when trading the EUR/USD
pair as I had high hope that there would be a reversal, but the market kept moving to the opposite
direction.
I also learnt a lesson on not keeping so close to the platform watching when the trades
makes some profit. What one is interested in during this trading is the profit. Thus, one will
always be tempted to close the trade as soon as significant profit is realized. The best idea here is
to set your stop loss and take profit and leave the market to move without watching it. You will
eventually make huge gains when the trade hits the take profit. I sometimes kept constant watch
which I have later realized it was a huge mistake. Sometimes I could watch a trade make huge
gains, but as soon as I see the market start moving on the opposite direction, and my gains start
declining, I rushed to close the trade. There is a time I closed a trade for the same reason, but
after a small reversion, the market started moving again on the intended direction and went past
the take profit I had set earlier before I closed the trade prematurely.
Conclusion
The movement of the market is not always smooth, if the market is going up, it doesn’t
go up smoothly, and it has to take some reversions at different levels. There are resistance levels
where the market takes time before it bypass that level, in some cases, the market is unable to
push above the resistant level and thus reverses its movement. On the contrary, there are support
levels, the market sometimes fall until to the support level and then takes a reversal. As per the
experience I gained during the trading, there is no guarantee that the market will always take a
reversal at the support or the resistance levels. Thus, it is good to take risk management into
factor before entering a trade. It is essential to know when to enter and when to exit the market,
simple observations are deceptive. Being successful in many trades does not guarantee that the
trader won’t be losing his investment capital. One needs to have a proper risk management
system in order to success in this market. Trading discipline also need to be observed. Due to the

Forex Trading 8
losses I made, I conclude that this market is very risky and caution is necessary since there is
potential of losing an entire investment value.
Bibliography
Brooks, K. (2015). Currency trading for dummies. John Wiley & Sons Inc.
England, W. (2012). Learn Forex: How to Effectively Use a Trailing Stop. [Online] Dailyfx.com.
Available at: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/education/trading_tips/daily_trading_lesson/
2012/11/07/LEARN_FOREX_How_to_Effectively_Use_a_Trailing_Stop.html [Accessed 27
Apr. 2018].
Forextraders.com. (2016). Key Risk Management Principles for Forex Trading. [Online]
Available at: https://www.forextraders.com/forex-education/forex-money-management/key-risk-
management-principles-for-forex-trading/ [Accessed 25 Apr. 2018].
FXB Trading. (2017). Best forex risk management strategies – FXB Trading. [Online] Available
at: https://www.fxbtrading.com/articles/best-forex-risk-management-strategies?
utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=SearchBrandingEN&_aid=7254&_cid
=124&utm_term=&utm_adgroup=FXB&utm_matchtype=b&utm_placement=&utm_device=c&
gclid=CjwKCAjwlIvXBRBjEiwATWAQIlrLtbxKxpe_1vzgjYFNeLgLIsN6Ws6fk-
2jGr7n2iU5pWDVKmmZwhoCDpAQAvD_BwE [Accessed 27 Apr. 2018].
Maliti, B. (2014). Forex Trading Strategies: How to be a Super Successful Forex Trader. Maliti
Publishing.
Market Traders Institute. (2018). Forex Risk Management Strategy. [Online] Available at:
https://www.markettraders.com/blog/forex-risk-management-strategy/ [Accessed 25 Apr. 2018].
Rodriguez, D. and Shea, T. (2011). What is the Number One Mistake Forex Traders Make?
[Online] Dailyfx.com. Available at:
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/education/trading_tips/daily_trading_lesson/2011/12/08/
What_is_the_Number_One_Mistake_Forex_Traders_Make.html [Accessed 25 Apr. 2018].
Russell, J. (2017). Risk Management Tips for Forex Traders. [Online] The Balance. Available at:
https://www.thebalance.com/introduction-to-forex-risk-management-1345194 [Accessed 25 Apr.
2018].

Forex Trading 9
Stanley, J. (2012). How to Build a Strategy, Part 5: Risk Management. [Online] Dailyfx.com.
Available at: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/education/trading_tips/daily_trading_lesson/
2012/06/22/How_to_Build_a_Strat_part_5.html [Accessed 25 Apr. 2018].
Appendices
My Statement
My Statement - Summary
Value Of
Open
Positions
Total
Amount To
Risk
Withheld For
Tax Purposes Withdrawable Balance
0.00 AUD 0.00 AUD 0.00 AUD 41973.99 AUD
My Statement - Transactions
Id Deal Ref Date
Descriptio
n
Margin
To Risk
Credit/
Debit
(AUD)
Free
Balance
(AUD)
2.05E+08 34198059 4/16/2018
Open Day
Trading
736.18
AUD -736.18 49263.82
2.05E+08 4/16/2018 Day Trading Rolling -22.11 49241.71
2.05E+08 34198059 4/17/2018
Close Day
Trading
-736.18
AUD 736.18 49977.89
2.05E+08 34198059 4/17/2018 Day Trading P/L -736.18 49241.71
2.05E+08 34203939 4/17/2018
Open Day
Trading
106985.0
0 JPY -1284.37 47957.34
2.05E+08 34203939 4/17/2018 Cancellation fee -82.22 47875.12
2.05E+08 34204116 4/17/2018
Open Day
Trading
1005.16
CAD -1027.96 46847.16
2.05E+08 34204125 4/17/2018
Open Day
Trading
628.22
CAD -642.44 46204.72
2.05E+08 34204125 4/17/2018 Cancellation fee -78.62 46126.1
2.05E+08 34204176 4/17/2018
Open Day
Trading
1149.16
USD -1476.52 44649.58
2.05E+08 34204176 4/17/2018 Cancellation fee -421.44 44228.14
2.05E+08 34204209 4/17/2018
Open Day
Trading
690.52
GBP -1274.22 42953.92
2.05E+08 34204218 4/17/2018
Open Day
Trading
690.52
GBP -1274.2 41679.72
2.05E+08 34204218 4/17/2018 Cancellation fee -489 41190.72
2.05E+08 34204209 4/17/2018
Close Day
Trading
-690.52
GBP 1273.4 42464.12
2.05E+08 34204209 4/17/2018 Day Trading P/L 92.21 42556.33
2.05E+08 34204218 4/17/2018
Close Day
Trading
-690.52
GBP 1273.21 43829.54

Forex Trading 10
2.05E+08 34204218 4/17/2018 Day Trading P/L 110.63 43940.17
2.05E+08 34204116 4/17/2018
Close Day
Trading
-1005.16
CAD 1027.6 44967.77
2.05E+08 34204116 4/17/2018 Day Trading P/L 10.22 44977.99
2.05E+08 34203939 4/17/2018
Close Day
Trading
-
106985.0
0 JPY 1285.56 46263.55
2.05E+08 34204659 4/17/2018
Open Day
Trading
991.64
USD -1273.86 44989.69
2.05E+08 34204176 4/17/2018
Close Day
Trading
-1149.16
USD 1476.61 46466.3
2.05E+08 34204176 4/17/2018 Day Trading P/L 205.59 46671.89
2.05E+08 34204659 4/17/2018
Close Day
Trading
-991.64
USD 1274.54 47946.43
2.05E+08 34204659 4/17/2018 Day Trading P/L 115.67 48062.1
2.05E+08 34204125 4/17/2018
Close Day
Trading
-628.22
CAD 642.43 48704.53
2.05E+08 34204125 4/17/2018 Day Trading P/L 10.23 48714.76
2.05E+08 34204884 4/17/2018
Open Day
Trading
107005.0
0 JPY -1285.32 47429.44
2.05E+08 34206240 4/17/2018
Open Day
Trading
976.00
CAD -1000.08 46429.36
2.05E+08 4/17/2018 Day Trading Rolling -34.3 46395.06
2.06E+08 34204884 4/18/2018
Close Day
Trading
-
107005.0
0 JPY 1284.17 47679.23
2.06E+08 34204884 4/18/2018 Day Trading P/L 252.02 47931.25
2.06E+08 34212480 4/18/2018
Open Day
Trading
132780.0
0 JPY -1593.69 46337.56
2.06E+08 34212486 4/18/2018
Open Day
Trading
1144.20
USD -1473.11 44864.45
2.06E+08 34212486 4/18/2018
Close Day
Trading
-1144.20
USD 1473.29 46337.74
2.06E+08 34212486 4/18/2018 Day Trading P/L 710.76 47048.5
2.06E+08 34206240 4/18/2018
Close Day
Trading
-976.00
CAD 993.27 48041.77
2.06E+08 34206240 4/18/2018 Day Trading P/L 488.49 48530.26
2.06E+08 34221978 4/18/2018
Open Day
Trading
878.82
USD -1128.96 47401.3
2.06E+08 34221984 4/18/2018
Open Day
Trading
1690.30
NZD -1590.17 45811.13
2.06E+08 34221993 4/18/2018
Open Day
Trading
1063.00
NZD -1000.04 44811.09
2.06E+08 34221996 4/18/2018
Open Day
Trading
1272.12
AUD -1272.12 43538.97
2.06E+08 34221999 4/18/2018
Open Day
Trading
1062.80
NZD -1000.02 42538.95

Forex Trading 11
2.06E+08 4/18/2018 Day Trading Rolling -118.46 42420.49
2.06E+08 34212480 4/19/2018
Close Day
Trading
-
132780.0
0 JPY 1598.11 44018.6
2.06E+08 34212480 4/19/2018 Day Trading P/L 228.68 44247.28
2.06E+08 34221978 4/19/2018
Close Day
Trading
-878.82
USD 1135.97 45383.25
2.06E+08 34221978 4/19/2018 Day Trading P/L 713.54 46096.79
2.06E+08 4/19/2018 Day Trading Rolling -77.93 46018.86
2.06E+08 34221996 4/20/2018
Close Day
Trading
-1272.12
AUD 1272.12 47290.98
2.06E+08 34221996 4/20/2018 Day Trading P/L -1272.12 46018.86
2.06E+08 34221984 4/20/2018
Close Day
Trading
-1690.30
NZD 1585.98 47604.84
2.06E+08 34221984 4/20/2018 Day Trading P/L -1585.98 46018.86
2.06E+08 34221993 4/20/2018
Close Day
Trading
-1063.00
NZD 997.18 47016.04
2.06E+08 34221993 4/20/2018 Day Trading P/L 93.81 47109.85
2.06E+08 34221999 4/20/2018
Close Day
Trading
-1062.80
NZD 996.95 48106.8
2.06E+08 34221999 4/20/2018 Day Trading P/L 121.95 48228.75
2.06E+08 34251426 4/23/2018
Open Day
Trading
1957.04
USD -2560.21 45668.54
2.06E+08 34251441 4/23/2018
Open Day
Trading
2935.32
USD -3840.46 41828.08
2.06E+08 34256370 4/23/2018
Open Day
Trading
2930.52
USD -3852.32 37975.76
2.06E+08 4/23/2018 Day Trading Rolling -192.67 37783.09
2.06E+08 34260480 4/24/2018
Open Day
Trading
1952.80
CAD -2000.12 35782.97
2.06E+08 34256370 4/24/2018
Close Day
Trading
-2930.52
USD 3851.69 39634.66
2.06E+08 34256370 4/24/2018 Day Trading P/L 315.42 39950.08
2.06E+08 4/24/2018 Day Trading Rolling -150.69 39799.39
2.06E+08 4/25/2018 Day Trading Rolling -150.54 39648.85
2.06E+08 34251426 4/26/2018
Close Day
Trading
-1957.04
USD 2586.97 42235.82
2.06E+08 34251426 4/26/2018 Day Trading P/L -2586.97 39648.85
2.06E+08 34251441 4/26/2018
Close Day
Trading
-2935.32
USD 3880.13 43528.98
2.06E+08 34251441 4/26/2018 Day Trading P/L -3880.13 39648.85
2.06E+08 4/26/2018 Day Trading Rolling -30 39618.85
2.06E+08 34301595 4/27/2018
Open Day
Trading
2896.44
USD -3843.27 35775.58
2.06E+08 34301595 4/27/2018 Cancellation fee -342.87 35432.71
2.06E+08 34301766 4/27/2018 Open Day 1391.60 -2561.78 32870.93

Forex Trading 12
Trading GBP
2.06E+08 34301766 4/27/2018
Close Day
Trading
-1391.60
GBP 2547.87 35418.8
2.06E+08 34301766 4/27/2018 Day Trading P/L 1245.08 36663.88
2.06E+08 34260480 4/27/2018
Close Day
Trading
-1952.80
CAD 2005.54 38669.42
2.06E+08 34260480 4/27/2018 Day Trading P/L -924.31 37745.11
2.06E+08 34301595 4/27/2018
Close Day
Trading
-2896.44
USD 3831.98 41577.09
2.06E+08 34301595 4/27/2018 Day Trading P/L 396.9 41973.99