A Comprehensive Analysis: The Future of Electric Vehicles in Australia

This report explores the future of electric vehicles (EVs) in Australia, examining their significance for low-carbon transport, cost reduction, and energy security. It addresses research questions about the components, types, advantages, and disadvantages of EVs, and the current state and future prospects in Australia. The report reviews the technology involved, including energy sources, electric motors, and charging infrastructure. It presents statistics on Australia's population, commercial vehicle market, and electricity generation and consumption to project future demand. The analysis includes a discussion of plug-in hybrid EVs and battery electric vehicles, along with an overview of EV sales and charging infrastructure growth in Australia. The report also highlights Australia's commitment to net-zero emissions under the Paris Agreement and discusses pathways for decarbonization by 2050, emphasizing the potential for EVs to contribute to a sustainable transportation future.

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Future of electric vehicles in Australia
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INTRODUCTION
An electric vehicle, commonly abbreviated as EV, uses a single or numerous traction motors or
electric motors for the purposes of propulsion and it may be powered through a self-contained
with an electric generator, solar panels or battery or a collector system by electrical energy from
sources that are off the vehicle. In Australia, there are two categories of EV, namely plug-in
hybrid EV and battery electric vehicle. Just like in other countries, Australia is also considering
the future of electric vehicles since they have a significant benefit to utilities and consumers.
Electric vehicles present an opportunity for low carbon transport, low cost, and also provides the
opportunity for security in transportation and energy diversity. These opportunities and benefits
provide justification and motivation as to why it is very significant to research on the future of
electric vehicles in Australia.
This research of the future of electric vehicle is very unique since the technology of electric
vehicle is still not widely implemented globally and only a few countries have managed to fully
incorporate this technology into their vehicle manufacturing industries. This research can be
approached by reviewing the technology involves in electric vehicles, types of electric vehicles
in Australia. Advantages and disadvantages of an electric vehicle, and the future of electric
vehicle (Ajanovic, 2015).
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
This research on the future of electric vehicles in Australia seeks to answer the following
research questions:
 What is an electric vehicle?
 What are the major components used in the manufacture of an electric vehicle?
 What are the types of electric vehicles in Australia?

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 What are some of the advantages and disadvantages of electric vehicles?
 What is the current state of electric vehicles in Australia?
 What is the future of electric vehicles in Australia? (Anderson, 2019)
LITERATURE REVIEW
An electric vehicle is a special type of an automotive which uses a sing for numerous traction
motors or electric motors for the purposes of its propulsion. This automotive can be powered
through self-contained systems such as electric generator which coveters fuel to electric energy,
solar panels, or battery or powered through a collector system by electrical energy from off-
vehicle sources. Electrical vehicle includes, but not limited to, electric spacecraft, electric
aircraft, underwater and surface vessels, and rail and road vehicles. Electric vehicles came into
existence in the middle 19th century, when the electrical energy was one of the preferred methods
for the propulsion of the motor vehicle, providing an ease of operation and a level of comfort that
could not be attained by the gasoline vehicles at that instance (Ching, 2012).
Transportation Statistics
As mentioned in the previous section of this research, the major objective of this project is to
evaluate and analyze certain aspects of the future of electric vehicles in Australia when all non-
commercial vehicles will be replaced by hybrid or electric vehicles. Since it is impossible to
predict the exact state of electric vehicles in future, there is need of looking into the current
statistics and project them in the future. The population of Australia is estimated to be
25,294,500 as of 2019 March 19th. This makes Australia the 52nd most populated country in the
whole world with the majority of its population being concentrated in urban areas. The market of
Australia commercial vehicle stood at $16.29 billion in 2016, and the market is projected to
reach $21.66 billion by 2022. Australia commercial vehicle market is anticipated to expand at a

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healthy pace during forecast duration on account of growing demand for commercial vehicles for
logistics, construction, and transportation sectors (Deka, 2018).
Electricity Generation and Consumption
An estimate of the present electricity consumption in Australia is necessary when forecasting the
demand of electricity consumption for the future Australia where all the vehicles will have to be
replaced by hybrid and electric vehicles. The figure below shows the energy usage and electricity
generation in Australia:
Figure 1: Electricity generation and usage in Australia (Deka, 2018)
Components of Electric Vehicle
Energy sources
Majority of huge electrical systems in transport is powered by electricity sources that are
stationary which are coupled to the automotive through an electric cable. Electric traction
permits the regenerative braking application, in which motors are used as brakes and become
generators which the motion of the vehicle. The direction connected to the electrical energy

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generation plant is normally common in trolley trucks, electric trains, and trolley buses. Online
EV gathers electricity from electricity strips submerged under the road surface through
electromagnetic induction (Fernández & Aghili, 2010).
In the onboard storage, the powering of the systems are done from an external generator plant
when it is immobile and then disengaged before the vehicle starts moving, and the electrical
energy is kept in the vehicle until required.
Electric motors
The power required by the electric motor of these vehicles is 100kW and this power will deliver
maximum torque compared to the performance of an internal combustion engine. DC electrical
energy is normally fed into DC/AC inverter where the process of conversion takes space into AC
electrical energy which is then connected to three-phase AC motor. In the case of some electric
cars, forklift, and electric trains, DC motors are normally used (Guizhou & Guoqing, 2012).
Charging
If a huge section of private vehicles were to be converted to grid electricity, then there would be
an increase in the transmission and generation demand, and consequently emissions. Electric
vehicles normally charge from dedicated charging stations or conventional power outlet which
involves a process that takes some hours. However, the charging process can be done overnight
and normally provides a sufficient charge for normal daily usage. Batteries can also be replaced
mechanically instead of recharging electric vehicles from an electric socket at a specific station
in a few minutes instead of waiting for many hours during charging (Hong & Zhao, 2018).
Types of EV in Australia

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Currently, there are two categories of EV in Australia, namely Plug-in electric vehicles and
battery electric vehicle. In a battery electric vehicle, there is a built-in battery pack that draws
electrical energy from the grid for the purposes of charging and has no other engine or fuel tank.
The battery electric vehicle, commonly abbreviated as BEV use motor controllers and electric
motors for the purposes of propulsion instead of an internal combustion engine. They use all the
electrical energy from the battery pack and therefore do not have a fuel tank, fuel cell, or internal
combustion engine. A vehicle using both internal combustion engines and electric motors are
examples of EV and are not considered all-electric or pure vehicles since they cannot be charged
externally with power from regenerative braking or internal combustion engine (Huda &
Tokimatsu, 2019).
Hybrid vehicles with a battery pack which can be externally charged to remove all or some of
their gasoline fuel or ICE are known as plug-in hybrid EV and are also referred to as battery
electric vehicles during their mode of charge depletion. The motor controller received signals
from potentiometer coupled to the accelerator pedal, and it uses this signal to determine the
amount required power (Hyvönen & Repo, 2016).
The supplied DC power to the batteries and the controller is involved in the regulation of the
electric power to the motor, supplying either variable frequency variable amplitude AC or
variable pulse width DC, depending on the type of motor. Regenerative braking is also handled
by the controller whereby power is collected as the EV is slowing down and this electric power
is used in recharging the battery. The controller also performs numerous safety checks like
failure diagnostics, functional safety tests, and anomaly detection in addition to motor and power
management (Kampker, et al., 2011).

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Majority of the electric vehicles currently use electric batteries which consist of electrochemical
cells connected externally so as to deliver electrical power to the EV. The technology of battery
for the electric vehicles has developed to lithium-ion batteries that are used currently from the
early lead-acid battery used in the late 19th century until the 2010s. Battery electric vehicles have
conventionally used a form of brushless DC electric motor known as a series wound DC motor
(Lebeau, et al., 2013).
A plug-in EV is controlled by an electric drive train and fitted with an internal combustion
engine, enabling the charging of the battery through either the engine or grid. This motor vehicle
can be recharged from an external electricity source like wall sockets, and the electrical energy
contributed to driving the wheels or stored in the rechargeable battery packs drives. Plug-in EV
have numerous benefits than the traditional internal combustion engines since they have lower
maintenance and operational costs, and produce no or little air pollution. The conventional
hybrid electric vehicle has a battery that is recharged continually with power from regenerative
braking and an internal combustion engine, however, they cannot be grouped as plug-in EV since
they cannot be recharged from an off-vehicle electricity source (Lefeng, et al., 2016).
Overview of Electric Vehicles in Australia
Over the past year, there has been a significant increase in media interest in the electric vehicle in
Australia. There were 2284 electric vehicles sold in Australia in 2017, this represents
approximately 67% increase from the previous year. The number of EV models available in
Australia for sale has also increased by 44% from 2016 to 2017. There have been nine new plug-
in hybrid vehicle and battery electric vehicle models expected to be introduced into the Australia
market over the next 18 months while the majority of these models have been in the most
expensive vehicle segment. The number of stations for charging in Australia has also increased

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significantly, with an increase of 64% from 2017 to 2018. This is presently equivalent to about a
single charging station for every six EV (Li, et al., 2014).
Figure 2: Electric vehicle sales between 2011 and 2017 in Australia (Louie, 2015)
A significant consideration for charging infrastructure and electric vehicles is the source of
electrical energy used in powering the vehicle. Investigation across all territories and states in
Australia illustrates that an average EV charged from the grid emitted less in 2016 compared to
an average ICE automotive is all the states (Minami, 2011).
The territories and states in Australia differ in their rate of uptake in electric vehicles. In the last
7 years, Victorians have purchased the highest number of EV with 1324 vehicles purchased
between 2017 and 2011. The city of Adelaide is building 20 EV charging bays at UPark car
parks, which use the new internal combustion engine to the parking system of EV. The new
internal combustion engines to electric vehicle system combine overhead indication and
occupancy sensors to create a management system for active parking, which matches the
availability of EV parking space to actual demand during the duration of high car park
utilization. The project will allow a rapid rollout of an EV charging station in off-street public

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car parks by reducing the potential lost revenue from vacant EV parking spaces and
inconvenience to operators of the traditional internal combustion engines (Mortaz & Valenzuela,
2017).
In 2017 September, the city collaborated with the Government of South Australia, Tesla,
Mitsubishi Motors Australia, and SA Power Networks to construct EV Charging Hub in the City
of Adelaide. The Hub incorporates eight chargers of EV which are compatible with all current
battery and plug-in electric vehicle models in Australia. The EV charging Hub provides two
hours of free parking for the owners of EV (NUR, 2017).
Future of Electric Vehicles in Australia
Australia has committed self to the global transition to net zero emissions as a signatory to the
Paris Agreement, which demands the development of long-term strategies of 2050
decarbonization. The research on the pathways towards deep decarbonisation in 2050 by ANU
and Climateworks shows that Australia can attain net zero emissions by 2050 with the currently
available technologies and continues economic growth. The adoption of the electric vehicle also
addresses the wider issue of fuel security since Australia is very vulnerable to a disruption of fuel
supplies for transport because of the high fuel and oil import dependency. The implementation of
standards aimed at improving the fuel efficiency of the traditional internal combustion engines
will only go far in attaining the greenhouse reduction target of Australia Government,
improvement in energy productivity, and air quality objectives (Park, et al., 2012).
The demand for hybrid electric vehicles continues to rise and the pathway resulting in EV as a
predominant type of vehicle in Australia will continue to include a huge range of different fuels
and drive-train technologies. Analysis based on the 2050 Pathways Calculator established by the

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ClimateWorks, funded by ARENA and with a partnership with NRMA, shows an overview of
the potential approaches towards reducing the demand for imported fuel and oil in Australia, and
the benefits it provides to the carbon reduction targets and national fuel security. The stocks of
fuel are expected to increase from 18 days to 21 days by 2030 and from 16 days to 20 days
in2050. The imports of oil and fuel are expected to decrease by 16% in 2030 and 28% in 2050
(Reeven & Hofman, 2019).
The figure below shows the fuel security in Australia in terms of ration or imported oil and oil
stock, under deep decarbonisation electric vehicle uptake assumption on the right an under the
business as usual on the left.
Figure 3: Fuel security in Australia (Ruffini & Wei, 2018)
Various studies and research have been conducted that forecast and model the deployment of EV
sales under numerous policy and market conditions, however, projections of a potential increase
in the sales of EV greatly vary depending on the market condition, technology progress and
policy drivers. There will be also potential economic benefits and increased employment from

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the increased demand for locally generated electrical energy, replacing the petroleum-based fuels
that have been predominantly imported (Sardar & Babu, 2013).
The figure below shows the projection of the deployment of future EV with the assumption that
there will be increased policy support and greater technical advancement.
Figure 4: 2010-2014 sales share of EV and 2020-2030 sales share project (Schlesinger, 2014)
International evidence shows a strong relationship between the number of vehicle models being
provided and cumulative electric vehicles sales, with the greater available number of models
increase choice for selection may result in a further rise in sales. There were about 6 to 8 EV
models available widely to the general public in 2012 in numerous countries. This has to increase
to more than 30 electric vehicle model depending on the geographic location. The availability of
models depends on the market demand and geographic location while the majority of the leading
manufacturers of vehicles have a single or many models in development or production (Schöttle
& Bratzel, 2016).

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Consumer Attitudes towards EV
The research carried out by NRMA and RACV on behalf of Electric Vehicle Council shows that
there continues to be a significant section of respondents who are willing to consider owning an
EV, with a small percentage having spent time researching on the options of EV. The price o EV
also continues to be a major for consumers, which reflects the lack of availability of model in
lower ranges of prices in Australia. 34% of people in Australia would be willing to pay for extra
for an electric vehicle compared to diesel or petrol vehicle, the majority would only do so if there
was more infrastructure, incentives, and support (Motlagh, et al., 2015). This shows that
government policy can positively have an impact on the decision-making of consumers.
Countries such as the United States and Norway have experienced some of the highest uptake
rates of EV since they provide a range of non-financial and financial incentives to consumers
(Wager, et al., 2016). The figure below shows the perceptions of the consumers as far as
government policies on the uptake of EV is concerned:
Figure 5: Perceptions of consumers on government policies (Wei & Xie, 2012)

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Policy in Australia can assist in addressing the three major barriers to the uptake of EV in
Australia, these barriers include consumer awareness, recharging concerns, and cost and model
availability. An analysis shows that for the evolution of EV to be fully incorporated into the
market, there will be a need for financial incentives so as to reduce the cost differential in the
majority of the markets until 2020. Extra complementary policies will be needed through to 2025
or later on, to give sustainable support in the form of consumer awareness initiatives and
charging infrastructure rollout. As the market of electric vehicles increases with time, the cost of
EV decreases, the government will have the ability to adapt policy told and reduce incentives to
provide stable support to sustain the growth of the market of new technology (Wei & Xie, 2012).
While there have been significant developments in the policies in Australia in the past 12
months, these have occurred majorly at local, territory, and state government levels. These policy
developments have been significant in changing the narrative concerning policy support and will
assist in addressing the barriers of consumer awareness and recharging concerns. There will be
the need of the government to use financial incentives to address the barrier of model and cost
availability so as to attain a tangible impact on the uptake of electric vehicles (Wood, 2011).
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
The Analysis Approach
As mentioned in the introduction of this report, the purpose and drive of this investigation are to
provide a comprehensive projection of the future of electric vehicles in Australia since these
types of vehicles presents an opportunity for low carbon transport, low cost, and also provides
the opportunity for security in transportation and energy diversity. Based on this proposal, the
study of a hypothetical scenario emerges in which Australia will have replaced all its

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automobiles with battery and plug-in electric vehicles by 2040. In order to be able to make the
prediction on the relative conditions and aspects of the electric vehicles in the future, certain
assumptions should be made. The present relevant information and significant aspects were
considered based on a steady state assumption so as to prevent unpredictability of the dynamic
and transient nature of the aspects involved in this research (Yang, 2014).
Precisely, the current data for Australia were collected and based upon the historical trends by
averaging data of recent years the same data for Australia after 2020 were forecasted. These data
include the type of power stations, the number of charging stations, the electricity consumption
and generation of the State, the population of the country, and the number of registered vehicles.
The assumptions made in this study does not take into account numerous factors which at times
could prove to be very determining. These factors include exponential and rapid technology
development in which the future electric vehicle models could end up designing a far more
different model compared to the one analyzed in this study (Zhang, et al., 2014)
.
The other factors unforeseen which could affect the consistency of predictions and results of this
report include socio-economic and another natural disaster, potential financial crises, government
regulations to the net imported quantities, and changes in the political scene of the state. Despite
all these factors, this scientific approach of forecasting future data by using the past and present
trends provides a consistent, good analysis method and also exactly pinpoints to certain
assumptions and limitations involved, resulting into the more qualitative and meaningful analysis
(Ching, 2012).
The Background Research

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Rather extensive background research was necessary so as to get an understanding of the topic to
investigate and to further determine the scope of this research by stressing on the most essential
and relative aspects while leaving and neglecting out insignificant information. In order to gain a
basic understanding of electricity distribution and transmission and charging station, an interview
with Miss Eva Hanly who is an Executive Manager Strategy, Innovation and Technology in
Transgrid was conducted. Insightful knowledge of charging cost and charging stations was
attained through an interview with Miss Marine Deshayes who is a Research Manager of
ClimateWorks Australia. Additionally, through an interview with Mr Leslie Smith, Australian
Electric Vehicle Association (AEVA), valuable information on plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
was attained from personal point of view from Professor John Orr of Future Climate Australia
(FCA) which was used to enable further discussion and relevant results (Guizhou & Guoqing,
2012).
The interviews were specifically based on structured questions and personal observation. The
objective was to uncover the personal impression, feelings, and emotions of the participants
concerning their personal opinions on the future of electric vehicles in Australia. Personal
discussions and interviews with the above-named participants also provided the opportunity for
the interviewee and interviewer to interact and develop direct personal contacts (Ruffini & Wei,
2018).
The gathered information assisted in narrowing down the scope of this study and comprehend the
areas and information requires to look at further. Therefore, data on greenhouse emissions,
sources of electrical energy generation, power stations, current electric vehicle technology, and
transportation were gathered from these sources. Significant reviews and articles from numerous
standpoint were analyzed so as to provide a more objective and coherent view on the topic.

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Finally, a list of questions concerning information and concepts required further classification,
majorly attained from the study of the Pathways to Deep Decarbonisation in 2050 was
established (Wood, 2011).

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